Early evening summary
- Academics have published research based on a study of Omicron cases in England suggesting people infected with it are less likely to end up in hospital than people infected with the Delta variant. The MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London has tweeted a link to the full report here.
NEW REPORT #COVID19 Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England
— MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (@MRC_Outbreak) December 22, 2021
➡️Estimates suggest Omicron cases are 15% less likely to attend hospital, and 40% less likely to be hospitalised for a night or more, compared to Delta.
Read the report here 👇https://t.co/SE7oLN8kJT pic.twitter.com/UmO2NzbOzT
And here is a news report from Imperial College London summarising the findings. It says:
Estimates suggest Omicron cases are 15% less likely to attend hospital, and 40% less likely to be hospitalised for a night or more, compared to Delta.
The researchers stress that these reductions in severity must be balanced against the larger risk of infection with Omicron, due to the reduction in protection provided by both vaccination and natural infection. For example, at a population level, large numbers of infections could still lead to large numbers of hospitalisations. They say the estimates provided in this paper will assist in refining mathematical models of potential healthcare demand associated with the unfolding European Omicron wave.
And this is from Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist, summarising the findings. He said:
Our analysis shows evidence of a moderate reduction in the risk of hospitalisation associated with the Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant. However, this appears to be offset by the reduced efficacy of vaccines against infection with the Omicron variant. Given the high transmissibility of the Omicron virus, there remains the potential for health services to face increasing demand if Omicron cases continue to grow at the rate that has been seen in recent weeks.
That is all from me for today. But our Covid coverage continues on our global live blog. It’s here.
Updated
Police watchdog says it won't investigate complaint about No 10 officers ignoring possible lockdown-busting partying
The Independent Office for Police Conduct has released a statement this afternoon saying it will not consider a complaint from the Green party peer Jenny Jones about officers on duty at No 10 ignoring possible lockdown-breaking partying because it is outside its terms of reference. Instead it has referred the matter back to the Metropolitan police service (MPS). In a statement it explained:
Having fully assessed the referral we have decided it is invalid and we have returned it to the MPS to handle as it determines would be appropriate.
Under the relevant legislation, a valid complaint can only be made where an individual, or someone acting on their behalf, has been adversely affected by the alleged conduct or its effects.
There was nothing within the referral to indicate the complainant was physically present or nearby when officers stationed at Downing Street allegedly failed to enforce Covid rules. Nor is there a suggestion that they were physically present or sufficiently nearby when the effects of the officers’ alleged actions occurred.
If evidence were to come to light that anyone serving with the police may have breached standards of professional behaviour or committed a criminal offence, linked to the alleged party, we have reminded the Metropolitan police of its obligations to refer relevant matters to us, irrespective of whether or not a valid complaint has been made.
Updated
Daily Covid hospital admissions in London reach highest daily figure since early February
In the i today Jane Merrick suggests that, if Covid hospital admissions in London remain below 400 by the end of the week, the government may decide not to impose fresh restrictions in England next week. (See 11.56am.) She wrote the article when the most recent figure for London admissions was 245, for Sunday.
According to today’s dashboard, the most recent daily figure (for Monday) is now 301. The previous Monday the figure was 169. The daily Covid hospital admission figure for London has not been this high since early February.
And the total number of Covid patients in hospital in London has now passed 2,000 for the first time this winter. It is 2,036 today. It has not been this high since the start of March. Until the first week of December the average daily figure was near the 1,000 mark, but in the last three weeks it has doubled.
London is being closely watched because the Omicron spike took off first here, and so it is assumd that what is happening in the capital will be replicated in other parts of the country.
But London also has a population with unusually low rates of vaccination. More than 30% of Londoners over the age of 12 have not yet had a first jab. Nationally the equivalent figure is 10%. That suggests London may turn out to be more of an outlier than a reliable indicator for how Omicron will drive up hospitalisation rates in the rest of the UK.
Daily recorded Covid cases pass 100,000 for first time, reaching a record 106,122
The number of new Covid cases recorded on the government’s dashboard has passed 100,000 for the first time in this pandemic, today’s figures show. The new daily total is 106,122.
This is more than 13,000 higher than the previous record - 93,045 on Friday last week.
This is higher than any daily total for new cases last winter, or in the autumn - and also in the first wave last spring, although because so little testing took place at that point recorded cases were very low, and totally unreliable as a guide to the real number of cases in the community.
(The recorded figures published these days are also a considerable understatement, because so many people do not display symptoms, or get a test, but it is assumed that the trend with recorded new cases does now track the trend with actual new cases.)
Today’s dashboard also shows that the total number of new cases over the past week is up 58.9% on the total for the previous week.
There have also been 140 further deaths.
Updated
Northern Ireland 'to close nightclubs from 27 December'
The Northern Ireland executive has decided that nightclubs in Northern Ireland will have to close from 27 December, the BBC is reporting. This is from the BBC’s Jayne McCormack.
New: understand nightclubs in NI will be asked to close again from 27 December, Stormont ministers have agreed but they are still meeting (3+ hours now), and have yet to nail down the fine print on all the proposals they’ve been considering
— Jayne McCormack (@BBCJayneMcC) December 22, 2021
More than 30m extra doses of Covid-19 vaccine have now been given in the UK, PA Media reports. PA says:
A record 968,665 booster and third doses were reported for the UK on Tuesday.
The previous record was 940,606 doses on Saturday.
It means a total of 30.8m booster and third doses have now been delivered, with 6.1m in the past seven days.
The figures have been published by the UK’s four health agencies.
Around 58% of all adults in the UK have now had a booster or third dose of Covid-19 vaccine, according to analysis by the PA news agency.
This is up from 46% a week ago.
The government has said all eligible adults in the UK will be offered the chance to get a booster jab before the end of the month.
In a statement to the Senedd (Welsh parliament), Mark Drakeford, the first minister, rejected the suggestion that Wales was on an “unstoppable journey to lockdown”. He told members of the Senedd (MSs):
We’re not on an unstoppable journey to lockdown.
If we act together do all the things we’re able to do in our own lives, we have a chance to make a difference.
There are lots of things we don’t know about Omicron and how it will affect us, so I can’t rule things out.
But the measures we’ve announced are designed to mitigate the risk that more serious interventions are needed.
Sajid Javid, the health secretary, has confirmed that the government has still not ruled out imposing new Covid restrictions in England after Christmas. Asked about plans for the new year on a visit to a hospital, he said:
The best advice to everyone is continue to remain cautious and keep looking forward to Christmas.
He also stressed that the government was keeping the situation under review.
It is fast-changing, the situation, there’s more data not just here from home but from abroad - we keep an eye on all that data and discuss it with our expert advisers.
As the prime minister has said, whilst there’s no need for any further restrictions before Christmas we will certainly keep the situation under review.
Updated
Thousands of new road signs are to be installed to guide people to coronavirus vaccination centres following an agreement between the AA and the government, PA Media reports. PA says:
This follows requests from smaller centres, which wanted to make it easier for road users to find them.
The AA believes that, while the locations of hospitals, pharmacies and GP surgeries are often well known to local residents, temporary vaccination sites in non-medical locations can be harder to find for many people.
The motoring services firm provided nearly 2,000 free signs to vaccination centres across the UK earlier this year when the widespread rollout of coronavirus jabs began.
Updated
The polling company Savanta ComRes says Keir Starmer has overtaken Boris Johnson on the best prime minister rating for the first time since it launched its political tracker in May last year.
🚨December Political Tracker - 'Best PM' rating
— Savanta ComRes (@SavantaComRes) December 22, 2021
🤷'Don't know' ahead of both Johnson & Starmer
🌳Johnson 31% (-8)
🌹Starmer 33% (+3)
🤷Don't know 36% (+4)
2,096 UK adults, 17-19 Dec
(Changes from 19-21 Nov) pic.twitter.com/ApSdFei5Nw
YouGov has also released new polling today showing Starmer well ahead on this measure - although YouGov had Starmer leading on this question in the second half of last year.
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister? (19-20 Dec)
— YouGov (@YouGov) December 22, 2021
Keir Starmer: 34% (+1 from 14-15 Dec)
Boris Johnson: 22% (-1)
Don't know: 39% pic.twitter.com/PeIiY0LPUt
Both polls also give Labour a clear lead over the Conservatives. With Savanta ComRes, Labour is five points ahead (Lab 37%, -1; Con 32%, -2). And YouGov makes it six points (Lab 36%, -1; Con 30%, -2).
Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta ComRes, said:
The winter of discontent goes on for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives. I make this the 19th consecutive poll lead for Labour among all pollsters, and we haven’t seen that number of consistent poll leads for years – even when Labour were regularly in the lead in the middle of 2019, there was always the odd level-pegging poll to break things up a bit. However, voting intention aside, analysts always look at other metrics to give a more nuanced assessment of which way the country may vote, and the fact that Boris Johnson has relinquished his Best PM lead for the first time in our tracker probably says more than consecutive Labour leads.
But the fact remains that Conservative voters are not switching directly to Labour, and the opposition still need to do far more to convince voters that they have a credible alternative to the Johnson administration.
Updated
A record 968,665 booster and third doses of Covid-19 vaccine were reported in the UK yesterday, PA Media reports. PA says:
The previous record was 940,606 doses on Saturday.
More than 30.8m booster and third doses have now been delivered in the UK, with 6.1m in the past seven days.
The figures have been published by the UK’s four health agencies.
Summary of Drakeford's Q&A
Here are the main points from Mark Drakeford’s Q&A with journalists. The main points from his opening statement are here.
- Drakeford, the Labour Welsh first minister, said that the UK government was “in a state of paralysis” over Covid. Asked why Boris Johnson was refusing to announce new restrictions, when the Welsh government was, Drakeford replied:
I think that the UK government is in a state of paralysis about all of this. We see the reports of infighting within the cabinet. There are, as I would see it, sensible voices urging the prime minister to act to protect the NHS and to protect people’s lives as he has in previous waves.
And there are others who I simply think take a different view of the balance of risk here and are prepared to allow those risks to run. I don’t believe it’s because they don’t see the data. They see the data but they’re not prepared to act on it.
- Drakeford dismissed claims that Wales was overreacting because the UK Health Security Agency has reportedly concluded that the Omicron variant causes less severe illness than Delta. (See 10.18am.) When this was put to him, he replied:
It really is a misunderstanding of the position we are facing to think that, if Omicron is less severe than Delta, then that solves the problem.
If Omicron was only half as severe as Delta, because of the extra speed at which it is transmitted, that would buy you 48 hours before you see those numbers, and numbers of people going to hospital, climb to the various steep levels that we have seen.
Drakeford also suggested that the UKHSA findings might be more equivocal than some reports indicated. He went on:
The detail that I have seen suggests that if you have already been infected by coronavirus, it may be that Omicron will not be as severe as the first time you were infected. If you’re getting it for the first time, there is no evidence that it is any less severe than any of the earlier variants.
So I’m afraid, nice as it would be to think that that will solve the problem of January for us, just the sheer number of people who will fall ill, and the more nuanced information about severity, means that the protections that we have announced today are a necessary precaution.
- He said he expected Omicron cases to peak in January, implying the new restrictions could be reviewed soon after that. Asked how long they would be in place, he said they would be reviewed every week. He went on:
The modelling that we see tells us that we have to expect a sharp rise of cases into January and then, compared to earlier variants, a relatively sharp decline in those numbers as well.
-
He said claims that the Welsh government wanted to fine people for going into work were a “story without substance”. (See 12.42pm.) He said making going into work unnecessarily a finable offence would protect workers who were asked to do this by unscrupulous bosses, because it would give them a good reason to say no. And he said when this rule was previously in place, no fines were ever imposed.
Updated
Blair says only full lockdown would be fully effective against Omicron, but that would be unacceptable to public
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has said that not introducing new Covid restrictions in England before Christmas is a “gamble”. But, in an interview with Times Radio, he implied it was a gamble that was justified, because he said the only intervention that would really work against Omicron was a full lockdown, and he said the public would not tolerate that.
Asked if he would be introducing new rules before Christmas, he replied:
No, but I think we’ve got to be very frank with people as to why not and I don’t think it’s really that there’s some great piece of data we’re waiting on.
It’s really because the pain of going into a full lockdown, and with this variant that’s the only thing that would really work ...
It is a gamble what the government’s doing, because if you look at this in purely public health terms - and I’ve spoken to many public health professionals in the last days - they’re pretty much of one view. If you were taking a purely precautionary view of this, you would impose further restrictions, probably quite draconian restrictions.
But I think a) the public’s just been through too much, and b), you’ve got too many different categories of people for the blunt instrument of a lockdown really to work in the way that you want.
Asked if he thought that meant a full lockdown would be impossible in the future too, he replied:
I just think it’s incredibly difficult because of the massive collateral damage you’re going to do.
Updated
JCVI set to recommend vaccinating vulnerable five- to 11-year-olds
Government advisers have decided against recommending that all five- to 11-year-olds be offered the Covid vaccine, with only the most vulnerable children expected to be eligible immediately, my colleagues Heather Stewart and Peter Walker report. Their full story is here.
Drakeford accuses UK government of 'paralysis' in face of threat posed by Omicron
Q: Your approach is stricter than England’s. Will people in Wales feel hard done by?
Drakeford says people in Wales will feel that they have a government doing everything it can to keep them safe.
He says there is a real contrast with the “paralysis” displayed by the UK government. He says he heard Boris Johnson say this week the situation had never been more urgent. But Johnson also decided to take no action. Drakeford says that would not be acceptable to him. If the situation is urgent, the Welsh government will act, he says.
Updated
Asked if he has seen evidence from the UK Health Security Agency suggesting the Omicron variant causes less severe illness than Delta (see 10.18am), Drakeford says the evidence he has seen is more equivocal. He says Omicron might be less severe for people who have had a previous infection. But for people who have not had Covid before, it is probably just as severe, he says.
Details of new Covid rules for Wales from Boxing Day
Here is the Welsh government’s summary of the new rules that will come into force from Boxing Day.
And this is what it says about the new alert level two measures.
A general requirement of 2m social distancing in all premises open to the public and workplaces, where reasonable.
The rule of 6 will apply to gatherings in regulated premises, such as hospitality, cinemas and theatres.
All licensed premises will need to take additional measures to protect customers and staff, including table service and collecting contact details.
Face coverings will be required in hospitality settings at all times apart from when seated.
Large events will not be allowed indoors or outdoors. The maximum number of people who can gather at an indoor event will be 30 and 50 outdoors.
There will be an exception for team sports, up to 50 spectators will be able to gather, in addition to those taking part. There is also an exception for events involving children.
Drakeford says proposed fines for not working from home in Wales intended to protect workers from bad bosses
Asked why the Welsh government is introducing a rule that could see people being fined for travelling to work when they could work from home, Drakeford says he wants to address this, because he thinks it has been misreported.
He says the government is only reintroducing a rule that applied earlier in the pandemic. And he says no fines were issued when the original rule was in place.
He says the regulations only include potential fines to protect workers. It means that, if an employer tells them to go into work when they think that is unnecessary, they can refuse on the grounds that they are being asked to break the law.
UPDATE: Drakeford said:
The rules that we are introducing are exactly the rules that we had earlier in the pandemic.
They are not some new set of rules, they are designed to protect workers, not to penalise them.
When these same rules were there earlier in the pandemic no fines are issued at all when these rules were previously in place.
They are there to make sure that if a worker feels that an employer is unreasonably expecting them to be in the workplace when they could work from home, but they are able to point to the regulations and make it clear that they would be committing an offence were they to do so.
It is to protect workers, not to penalise them. When these rules were in place earlier in the pandemic they worked very well.
They will work very well, again, and I’m very grateful to the employer organisations, the CBI and to the Wales TUC for their help in making sure that correct message about what the regulations mean is being communicated in workplaces and to employees as well.
Updated
Drakeford says rule of six to be enforced for hospitality in Wales from Boxing Day
Drakeford says the Welsh government has already set out some new rules for after Christmas. But it is going further, he says.
He says a new alert level 2 will be introduced for hospitality businesses, cinemas, theatres and public gatherings. These will come into force at 6am on Boxing Day.
This means 2-metre social distancing will apply, and the rule of six will apply in these venues and hospitality premises will have to offer table service, and collect contact details.
The maximum number of people allowed to gather at an indoor event will be 30, he says. But 50 people will be allowed to meet outdoors.
He says for weddings and funerals the number of people allowed will depend on whether the venue can manage social distancing. But guests will have to take lateral flow tests, he says.
He says the Welsh cabinet has decided not to impose new rules stopping people mixing in each other’s homes or gardens. But he says guidance will be issued.
But he says the government will reinstate a rule preventing people from holding large gatherings in their homes.
He says these rules will have an impact on business. The government will allocate £120m to help firms affected, he says.
Updated
Welsh first minister gives Covid briefing
Mark Drakeford is giving his briefing now.
He says the number of confirmed Omicron cases has risen sharply in Wales. And overall Covid cases are rising too, he says.
He says they expect this trend to “continue and accelerate”.
Omicron has a doubling time of two days, which means by Boxing Day we can expect many thousands of new cases every day.
He says the government has to prepare for the situation to worsen.
And here are the latest daily figures for Covid cases and deaths in Wales.
The rapid COVID-19 surveillance dashboard has been updated:
— Public Health Wales (@PublicHealthW) December 22, 2021
💻 https://t.co/zpWRYSUbfh
📱 https://t.co/HSclxpZjBh pic.twitter.com/iX5cZhiPOi
Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, is about to hold a briefing on Covid. Earlier he posted this on Twitter.
Omicron is here and it is spreading quickly.
— Mark Drakeford (@PrifWeinidog) December 22, 2021
The speed it spreads and its potential to infect large numbers of people is very concerning.
I will provide an update about the latest public health situation in Wales in my live press conference at 12:15 today.
This chart, from the Public Health Wales dashboard, sums up the Covid trends for cases and positivity (the proportion of tests turning out positive) in Wales.
Updated
In an article for the i, Jane Merrick suggests that whether or not new restrictions get imposed in England after Christmas could depend on whether Covid hospital admissions in London pass the 400-per-day mark. She explains:
Fresh restrictions in England after Christmas could be avoided if hospital admissions in London stay below 400 a day by the end of this week, i understands.
Ministers and scientific advisers are watching closely the number of Covid patients admitted to hospitals in the capital, as it is the leading edge of the Omicron wave and will provide some of the first real-world data on whether the variant is more severe in the UK ...
The latest figure for London admissions, from last Sunday 19 December is 245, and while the daily figure is rising, it has not increased as rapidly as Covid cases in London in the past two weeks.
While the figure of 400 is not a hard and fast threshold, it will provide a good guide of whether the huge scale of Omicron cases, above 80,000 in England for the past week, will translate into hospital admissions and put severe pressure on the NHS throughout January.
Merrick also says that, even if Boris Johnson does not impose new legal restrictions after Christmas, he could issue revised guidance as a means of discouraging social mixing.
Here are two contrasting responses to the new self-isolation rules announced by the government overnight.
In an assessment for the Science Media Centre, Dr Richard Tedder, member of the Clinical Virology Network, says that it is “probably correct” to say that someone who tests negative on two lateral flow tests is unlikely to be infectious and that requiring two LFTs is a “good compromise”.
But Dr Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London, has criticised the policy, and particularly how it is being promoted by ministers.
Yes, this is exactly what we need. Ending isolation for omicron infected people early to encourage them socialising with others at Christmas in the midst of unprecedented levels of cases, and rising hospitalisations. I don't even know what to say anymore. pic.twitter.com/ot6kLlR1l6
— Deepti Gurdasani (@dgurdasani1) December 22, 2021
Let's be honest - this is about things (healthcare, essential services) not collapsing and the economy being able to run given the mass infection we have now. But rather than risking infected people fuelling further transmission, we could have... novel idea... reduced infections?
— Deepti Gurdasani (@dgurdasani1) December 22, 2021
Gurdasani also says the UK Health Security Agency advice for people who do exit self-isolation after seven days - that they should continue to be very cautious - is “not even remotely reassuring”.
This is the advice she is referring to. UKHSA says:
Those who leave self-isolation on or after day 7 are strongly advised to limit close contact with other people in crowded or poorly ventilated spaces, work from home and minimise contact with anyone who is at higher risk of severe illness if infected with Covid- 19.
Updated
How the new seven-day self-isolation rule could for some people be more like six days
Gillian Keegan, the social care minister, said this morning that, under the new self-isolation rules, anyone who tested positive on Saturday last week (18th), or first got Covid symptoms then, might be able to get out of isolation in time for lunch on Christmas Day (this Saturday). (See 9.21am.)
This has surprised some readers who point out that, under the rules, the quarantine timetable (10 days, or now seven days for some people), starts from the day after the day you first get symptoms, or test positive. So day one of quarantine would be Sunday 19, and day seven would be Christmas Day (Saturday 25).
But, under the new rules, there is another change. The 10-day quarantine rule meant 10 days inclusive (up to 11.59pm on day 10). But under the lateral flow test release system, you are free on day seven as soon as you pass the second lateral flow test. This is how the UK Health Security Agency explains it:
The new guidance is for people who have tested positive to take LFD tests on day 6 and day 7, where the day on which symptoms started or they had a positive test is defined as day 0. If, for instance, they take a test on the morning of day 6 and a second test 24 hours later on the morning of day 7 and both are negative – and provided they do not have a high temperature – they can leave self-isolation after the second negative test on day 7.
So, for anyone doing both lateral flow tests early in the morning, the new seven-day quarantine would be more like six days.
Updated
Rail passenger numbers at half pre-pandemic levels, DfT figures show
Demand for rail travel has plummeted since the emergence of the Omicron coronavirus strain, PA Media reports. PA says:
Passenger numbers were at 53% of pre-pandemic levels on Monday, according to preliminary statistics from the Department for Transport.
That is down from 61% a week earlier, and 68% on Monday 6 December.
People in England have been advised to work from home since Monday 13 December, bringing the country in line with the rest of the UK.
Rail travel has also been hit by hundreds of services being cancelled this week due to pandemic-related staff shortages.
Bus use in Britain outside London was at 62% of pre-virus levels on Monday, down from 78% a week earlier.
Road traffic has remained relatively stable in recent weeks.
Updated
Photograph: Ian West/PA
Data not yet available to justify ruling out further restrictions after Christmas, says minister
Here are some more lines from Gillian Keegan’s interviews this morning.
- Keegan, the social care minister, would not rule out the government imposing some form of “circuit breaker” lockdown in England after Christmas. The Sun today claims “New Year’s Eve looks doomed” because further restrictions are likely. Asked if there was any chance of avoiding a circuit-breaker lockdown, Keegan said:
We are waiting for data on the severity, we’ll still have to wait to see where we land on that, but we can’t really say, you know.
What we’ve said is up to Christmas we’re fine looking at the data, looking at the numbers we have at the moment, but, of course, we have to look at where this virus goes, where this variant goes, so we have to look at that data.
I can’t tell you in advance of getting that data, but you should be cheerful because we’re doing a lot more than we could last year. We’re able to see our families.
- Keegan did not deny a report by Politico’s Alex Wickham saying UK Health Security Agency data suggests that the Omicron variant does produce a milder illness than Delta. This is implied by data from South Africa, but Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, said last week that because conditions in South Africa were so different, scientists could not be sure Omicron was intrinsically less severe until they had seen data from the UK. Asked about the Politico report about the UK data, Keegan said severity information was “one of the missing pieces of data that we’ve been waiting for”. She said ministers asked for this data every day. She went on:
I’m looking forward to receiving it. But we haven’t received that officially yet.
There’s a lot of uncertainty in the data and that’s one of the things we’ve been wanting to hear more on.
- She said that hospital doctors and care staff would be able to take advantage of the new rule saying self-isolation only has to last seven days, not 10, for people who test negative on a lateral flow test. She said hospital doctors were subject to strict testing regimes anyway, and she said care staff would keep doing lateral flow tests. But the new regime would “relieve some of the pressure” caused by staff absences in this sector, she claimed.
Updated
UK signs contracts for 4.25m courses of antivirals
The Department of Health and Social Care has this morning announced that it has signed contracts to buy another 4.25m courses of antivirals to protect patients from Covid. In a news release it says:
The two new contracts are for 1.75m additional courses of Merck Sharp and Dohme’s (MSD) molnupiravir (Lagevrio®) and 2.5m additional courses of PF-07321332/ritonavir (Paxlovid™) from Pfizer, which will be available from early next year and are both expected to be effective against Omicron.
The 4.25m courses are in addition to the procurement of 480,000 courses of molnupiravir and 250,000 courses of PF-07321332/ritonavir announced in October this year ...
Molnupiravir has shown in clinical trials to reduce the risk of hospitalisation or death for at-risk, non-hospitalised adults with mild to moderate Covid-19 by 30%. PF-07321332/ritonavir reduced the relative risk of Covid-19-associated hospitalisation or death by 89% in those who received treatment within three days of symptoms appearing.
DHSC is also encourage people over 50, or with an underlying health condition, who test positive for Covid to take part in a study to test the impact of these drugs. You can sign up here.
Updated
Rail travellers have been advised to check services before they travel over Christmas because staff illness is causing cancellations. Seb Gordon, director of external communications at the Rail Delivery Group, told the Today programme this morning:
We think that, at the moment, that in the Christmas week, when people are trying to get away - fewer people than in a normal year but lots of people still trying to get away - we think it’s important to prioritise running as many trains as we can even if that means there’s a few more of those frustrating short-notice cancellations.
But obviously, as we get further into this wave of the pandemic - we hope will not materialise in the way that people are anticipating - it may be that we decide actually we need to prepare for a lower level of staffing over a longer period of time and we will reduce the timetable.
Obviously the government’s announcement today of the reduced isolation period is going to really help.
Updated
Easing self-isolation rules will enable more people to spend Christmas with family, minister says
Good morning. In autumn last year Boris Johnson briefly started talking about how mass testing would be the “moonshot” that would provide a path back to normality. At a news conference he said this might help bring life “much closer to normal before Christmas” and a leaked document talked about mass testing delivering 6m tests per day.
At the time this was seen as one of the wilder examples of Johnson’s boosterism, and some of his claims were well off the mark. (At the time Johnson was talking about avoiding a second lockdown; in the event, there were at least two more to come.) But more than a year on some aspects of this vision have materialised. The government is now sending out 900,000 lateral flow kits (with seven tests per kit) per day. They are being very widely used. And last night the government announced that people who test negative with a LFT can reduce their Covid self-isolation period from 10 days to seven. My colleague Andrew Gregory has the details here.
Gillian Keegan, the social care minister, has been giving interviews this morning and she told Times Radio that the new rules would enable some people who would have been isolating on Christmas Day under the old system to spend it with loved ones instead. She explained:
If you work it out, if you were confirmed as positive or first showed symptoms on Saturday, the 18th and now - assuming, you get a negative lateral flow test on day six and day seven - you’ll be able to enjoy your Christmas lunch.
I will post more from her interviews shortly.
Keegan had little to say one the key question for many people: will further restriction be imposed in England after Christmas? In UK terms, England is an outlier because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have all either announced tighter Covid rules for the post-Christmas period, or are set to do so. We will be hearing more about what is happening in Wales and Northern Ireland today.
Here is the agenda.
9.30am: The Department for Transport publishes weekly transport usage figures.
11am: The Northern Ireland executive is expected to meet to consider new Covid restrictions. Afterwards Paul Givan, the first minister, and Michelle O’Neill, the deputy first minister, are expected to hold a news conference.
12.15pm: Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, holds news conference to announce new Covid restrictions.
1.30pm: Drakeford makes a virtual statement to the Senedd about the new Covid rules for Wales.
I will be mostly covering UK Covid developments here, but for global developments, do read our global live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com
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