Early evening summary
- Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has told MPs that cases of the Indian variant of coronavirus have doubled in the past week. There are now 2,323 confirmed cases of the Indian variant in the UK, he said, of which 483 are in Bolton and Blackburn with Darwen - where it is now the dominant strain. He also said that there are now 86 council areas with five or more cases of the variant, which government scientists say could lead to a substantial increase in hospital numbers if it turns out to be 50% more transmissible than the current UK variant. (See 9.03am.)
- Health officials have urged thousands of Glaswegians in their 20s and 30s to book a Covid vaccination after a rapid surge in cases linked to the coronavirus variant first identified in India. In England the government is not pushing for the young to be vaccinated early in areas where the Indian variant is causing a spike. Hancock told MPs that advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation was that more lives would be saved by ensuring that older people get first and second doses. (See 4.52pm.) But in areas like Blackburn local officials are encouraging all over-18s to make inquiries about getting vaccinated, on the grounds that the JCVI guidelines do allow young people to be vaccinated early in certain circumstances. (See 4.21pm.) No 10 seems resigned to the fact that in some areas these rules being interpreted with maximum elasticity. (See 1.51pm.)
- The UK’s relationship with the European Union after Brexit could remain “bumpy” for some time, Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, has admitted. As PA Media reports, Frost told a committee of MPs that he wanted the situation with Brussels to improve but highlighted ongoing problems with Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit arrangements. He said that the ability to diverge from EU regulations would be one of the big prizes of leaving the bloc, but acknowledged this could cause further difficulties over the Northern Ireland protocol. He said relationship with Brussels “will be a bit bumpy for a time but there is a lot of business to be done” following the conclusion of the trade and cooperation agreement between the UK and EU. And he said businesses in Great Britain were having more problems than anticipated moving goods into Northern Ireland which was having “a bigger chilling effect than we thought”. This is from the commentator Steve Richards on Frost’s evidence.
He was warned by many in advance of the ‘chilling effect’ but more fun to be delusional and counter-productively macho in a negotiation ...and when the predicted consequences take shape : https://t.co/O26XvArWKk
— steve richards (@steverichards14) May 17, 2021
That’s all from me for today. But our coronavirus coverage continues on our global live blog. It’s here.
Updated
In the Commons earlier Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said trials were underway to see if people could receive both their flu jab and booster Covid vaccine at the same time in each arm this autumn.
Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, is self-isolating after a member of his household tested positive for Covid, Scottish Labour has said. Sarwar himself has tested negative. “Mr Sarwar is well and will continue to fulfil his role in the Scottish Parliament remotely for the period of his self-isolation,” a spokesperson said.
In the Commons the Labour MP Toby Perkins asks Hancock for an assurance that the fact that Boris Johnson was planning a trip to India played no part in the decision to delay putting India on the red list.
Hancock says these decisions are based on evidence, provided by the Joint Biosecurity Centre. He says Pakistan and Bangladesh were added to the red list first, because of the case rates and positivity rates there. He says India was added later on a precautionary basis.
The Hancock statement has now finished.
Back in the Commons Matt Hancock, the health secretary, hinted that vaccine hesitant communities might get a choice over which vaccine to take, HuffPost’s Paul Waugh reports.
.@MattHancock gives 1st hint that vaccine hesitant communities cd get choice over which vaccine they get:
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 17, 2021
"As we reach further and further into those who need encouragement to come forward, so we are willing to look at more + more creative solutions to tackle people’s hesitancy..
Hancock's reply was to @BobBlackman asking for ppl to get a choice over vaccine. Hancock added: "If we can do more on the specifics of which vaccine, I’m very happy to look at that.”
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 17, 2021
Government's border policy a 'joke', says Cummings
Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s former chief adviser, has launched a fresh attack on his old boss’s lockdown strategy. It’s in a Twitter thread starting here.
1/ Covid… Summary evidence on lockdowns. For UK political pundits obsessed with spreading nonsense on Sweden/lockdowns, cf. SW econ did a bit WORSE than Denmark which locked down, AND far more deaths in Sweden: https://t.co/A9TV9oRGHU
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
Cummings frames his argument as an attack on pundits, who are probably at the top of his list of pet hates. But in the first phase of the pandemic many ministers in the government for which Cummings was then working made the case that he attacks here - that there was a trade off between protecting the economy and protecting health.
One of the biggest misunderstandings, spread by political pundits even now, is the ‘tradeoff’ argument. Fact: evidence clear that fast hard effective action best policy for economy AND for reducing deaths/suffering
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
Cummings also calls the government’s border policy a “joke”.
5/ There's a general western problem based on nonsense memes like 'asians all do as they're told it won't work here'. This is what many behavioural science 'experts'/charlatans argued, disastrously, in Feb2020. This nonsense is STILL influencing policy, eg our joke borders policy
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
And rather brazenly, or even hypocritically, in the light of his Barnard Castle excursion, Cummings argues that lockdowns will only work with “serious enforcement”.
7/ If you are going to have to do measures ≈ lockdown to avoid health system collapse then the harder/earlier the better & the sooner they can be released. Pseudo 'lockdowns' w/o serious enforcement are hopeless: econ hit & people die anyway, nightmare rumbles on
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
This is probably just a warm-up. We will get much more next week, when Cummings gives evidence on coronavirus to the Commons health and science committees.
Updated
In the Commons, Yvette Cooper, the Labour chair of the Commons home affairs committee, says that on 7 April 5% of people arriving in the UK from India had Covid. That was 50% higher than the rate here. She asks how high it reached before India was placed on the red list, and what proportion of the Indian variant cases in the UK were linked to travel.
Hancock says at the start of April the proportion of people arriving from India testing positive was relatively low. He says it had gone up by the end of April, and then India was put on the red list. He accuses Cooper of saying decisions should have been taken on the basis of evidence that was only available afterwards.
Updated
According to the UK government’s dashboard, the UK has recorded five more coronavirus deaths and 1,979 new cases. Compared with earlier in the year, these figures are remarkably low. But when numbers are very low it does not take much for them to start rising again, and week on week deaths have now started to go up, by 7.1%. New cases are also up week on week by 1.1%.
Asked about the possibility of local lockdowns, Hancock says that is “of course not where we want to go”. He says the government cannot rule them out. But the availability of the vaccines, and surge testing and lateral flow tests means the situation is very different from what it was last autumn, he says.
The Royal Statistical Society, which promotes the proper use of data, says the government has failed to publish information justifying its decision that today’s lockdown easing should go ahead because the ‘new variant threat test’ has been met. (One of the government’s four tests for easing restrictions is that new variants do not fundamentally change the assessment of risk.) In a Twitter thread starting here, it says the government should publish the framework for the decision, and the data fed into it, so that people can be assured the facts justify the policy.
One of the four tests that the government set for proceeding with the roadmap out of lockdown is that “our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern” (A thread)
— Royal Statistical Society (@RoyalStatSoc) May 17, 2021
Hancock defends the decision not to put India on the red list when Pakistan and Bangladesh were put on the red list even though at the time it seemed to have a higher Covid case rate. He says that is because India was doing much more testing. If you look instead at the positivity rate (the proportion of tests that were positive), at the time India was doing better than those other countries, Hancock argues.
Mark Harper (Con), chair of the anti-lockdown Covid Recovery Group, says some of his constituents who have had their first vaccine in Wales cannot register that vaccine with the NHS England app.
Matt Hancock says he has been working with his Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland counterparts to fix this. He says they have agreed to do this, but getting the different data systems to talk to each other is complicated.
Updated
People aged 36 will receive text messages inviting them for a coronavirus vaccine from Wednesday, NHS England said. Along with 37-year-olds who will receive invites from tomorrow, it means more than a million more people will be made eligible, PA Media reports.
Prof Stephen Powis, NHS England’s national medical director, said:
Bookings for the fastest and most successful NHS vaccination programme in history continue to surge with more than 930,000 appointments made in a matter of days since opening up to 38 and 39 year olds.
With well over 30 million first doses of vital protection against coronavirus delivered just six months into the NHS vaccination drive, the NHS is able to open up to 36 and 37 year olds as the programme continues at pace.
On the advice of the Government and JCVI people aged 50 and over and the clinically vulnerable are having their second doses brought forward to counter the spread of the Indian variant.
Nobody needs to contact the NHS. You will be told how to rebook if you need to.
Getting vaccinated is the most important step we can take to protect ourselves, our families and our communities against Covid-19, so when it is your turn to get your first or second dose please do so.
From the Mirror’s Dan Bloom
NEW: Covid Indian variant has gone from 1,313 UK cases at the last count on Thursday, to 2,323 today. That's another 1,000 cases in only three/four days, and the lag in genomic sequencing means there'll be a lot morehttps://t.co/inbF3oXyMX
— Dan Bloom (@danbloom1) May 17, 2021
Greg Clark (Con), the chair of the Commons science committee, asks at what point it will be safe for people to travel to countries country on the amber list.
Hancock says he cannot answer that yet, because we do not know how much more transmissible the India variant is.
Updated
Hancock says letting the young get vaccinated early in Covid hotspots not best way to save lives
Hancock is now responding to Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary.
He says surge testing works. It worked in south London, he says. The government will use it if there are more spikes, he says.
He says he wants to be clear: vaccinating all over-18s is not the government’s approach, he says. He says he has looked into this, and the government wants to prioritise getting the vulnerable vaccinated, and getting people to have their second jabs. The first jab for someone over 50 could make the difference between life and death, he says.
He says in Bolton and Blackburn vaccine uptake among people previously eligible has increased. People have responded to the data showing it makes a difference.
He says, if the Pfizer vaccine is approved for children, the UK has enough supplies.
But, given that 37-year-olds are being vaccinated now, the government would not get down to children for a couple of months anyway.
In response to claims that the government was late putting India on the red list, he accuses Ashworth of being a “Captain Hindsight”. India was put on the red list before the Indian variant had even been labelled a variant of concern.
On vaccinations around the world, Hancock says he expects the UK to contribute more to this than any other country around the world.
Updated
From the Times’ Chris Smyth
Now 2,323 known cases of faster-spreading Indian variant, Hancock says- that's up 76% since Thursday
— Chris Smyth (@Smyth_Chris) May 17, 2021
Hancock says 86 council areas now have five or more cases of Indian variant
Hancock says there are now 86 council areas with five or more cases of the Indian variant.
After Bolton and Blackburn, the next biggest area of local concern is Bedford, he says. He says surge testing is being deployed there.
He says the early evidence suggests the Indian variant is more transmissible than the Kent variant. But he says we do not yet know by how much.
And he says laboratory data from Oxford, as well as initial observational data from India, suggests the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant.
He welcomes YouGov figures showing the UK has the highest degrees of vaccine enthusiasm in the world. (See 12.48pm.)
From tomorrow people aged 37 will be able to get a vaccine in England, he says. Later in the week that age will come down, he says.
He says around 12,000 lives have been saved by the decision prioritise first doses.
The data suggests that the vaccine has already saved over 12,000 lives and prevented over 33,000 people from being hospitalised.
Now second doses are being given after eight weeks, he says.
He says the JCVI advice is that following this approach is the best way to save lives, and better than jumping ahead with first doses for young people.
Updated
Indian variant now dominant in Bolton and Blackburn, says Hancock
Hancock is now talking about the Indian variant, B.1.617.2.
He says there have now been 2,323 cases of this.
He says 483 of these cases were in Bolton and in Blackburn with Darwen, where it is the dominant strain.
In Bolton 19 people are in hospital with coronavirus, he says. The majority of them were eligible for the vaccine but have not yet had it, he says.
Hancock says average UK daily Covid deaths now down to nine
Matt Hancock starts by saying since January last year, and especially since December, “we have been engaged, all of us, in a race between coronavirus and the vaccine”.
He says there are now fewer than 1,000 people in hospital in the UK with coronavirus. And the average number of daily deaths is down to nine, he says.
Updated
From today the NHS app will show your vaccination record, Lord Bethell, the health minister, has confirmed.
BREAKING NEWS: As of TODAY, the NHS app shows your COVID-19 Vaccine Record, with a fuzzy QR code.
— Lord Bethell (@JimBethell) May 17, 2021
Note: this is the main NHS app which contains your NHS records (once you request & your GP provides access), not the Covid proximity app. Download here ...https://t.co/GgNoupIC9I pic.twitter.com/OBXDI9W9IL
Matt Hancock's Commons statement on coronavirus
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is about to make a Commons statement about coronavirus.
All over-18s in Blackburn urged to call to check if eligible for early vaccination
Dominic Harrison, director of public health for Blackburn with Darwen, which has one of the highest Covid infection rates in the UK, said there were currently just seven Covid patients across the four hospitals in the East Lancashire hospitals trust. At a press conference of the Lancashire Resilience Forum he said:
We do have some people in hospital who were eligible for a vaccination but haven’t yet taken it up. Some [patients] have had one dose, one person has had more than one dose and one person is of school age.
Harrison urged all adults in Blackburn to book an appointment, even if they are not sure they are eligible.
We’re urging everybody over 18 to book an appointment and have that discussion on a one-by-one level with clinicians who will be doing the vaccination, because of course they will be able to go through the eligibility process with each individual.
We have a strong expectation that a very high percentage of our population would meet at least one of those criteria, but of course they will be sticking strictly to the criteria supplied under the JCVI.
As Downing Street admitted earlier (see 1.51pm), although vaccines are generally being distributed on an oldest first basis, younger people can get vaccinated earlier if they qualify on grounds set out in the guidance, for example for being a carer.
Updated
Scotland has recorded 161 new coronavirus cases, and no further deaths, according to today’s Scottish government update. There are 68 coronavirus patients in hospital.
Again, these figures are very low compared with earlier in the year, but the dashboard shows the seven-day average for positive cases has been rising slightly this month, up from a low of 163.6 on 3 May to 271.9 on 14 May (the most recent date for which a figure is available).
Updated
Public Health Wales has recorded 91 new cases and one further coronavirus death.
The rapid COVID-19 surveillance dashboard has been updated:
— Public Health Wales (@PublicHealthW) May 17, 2021
💻 https://t.co/zpWRYSUbfh
📱 https://t.co/HSclxpZjBh pic.twitter.com/Eggk2v5lg1
These numbers are still very low, and on Monday last week 104 new cases were recorded in Wales, but the Public Health Wales dashboard shows a very slight rise in the seven-day average for cases per 100,000 population since early May. On 5 May it reached a low of 8.5 cases per 100,00. By 12 May (the most recent figure available on the dashboard) the rate was at 10.24 cases per 100,00.
This is from Prof Tim Spector, who runs the Zoe Covid symptom study, which uses an app to monitor the extent of coronavirus in the country.
Worried about the Indian variant? While our latest ZOE data still shows hotspots in Bolton Bedford, Oldham and Glasgow where the variant exists- the UK picture is not showing any signs of an increase with cases staying at around 2000 symptomatic cases per day which is v.low. Thx pic.twitter.com/e87FiIS05X
— Tim Spector (@timspector) May 17, 2021
Covid surges in worst UK hotspots driven by rising cases among young, analysis shows
Covid-19 rates in the UK’s worst hotspots are being driven by a sharp rise in cases among younger age groups, new analysis by PA Media shows. PA says:
Bolton, Bedford and Blackburn with Darwen are currently recording the highest Covid-19 rates in the UK, with the spread of the Indian variant of coronavirus driving a steep increase in cases.
But in each of the three areas, case rates among younger people are running at a much higher level than those for older age groups, according to analysis of the latest data by PA.
Bolton in Greater Manchester recorded 733 new cases of Covid-19 in the seven days to May 11, the latest data shows.
This is the equivalent of 254.9 cases per 100,000 people - the highest anywhere in the UK and the highest for the area since February 12, up sharply from 99.8 per 100,000 one week earlier.
The rate of new cases among people in Bolton aged 60 and over is just 59.9, however.
This is up only slightly from 35.3 a week earlier.
By contrast, the rate for those aged 10-19 in Bolton currently stands at 486.2 per 100,000, up sharply from 200.7 one week earlier, while for those aged 20-29 the rate has jumped from 147.9 to 310.0.
It means the rate in Bolton among 10-19 year-olds is more than eight times the rate for people 60 and over.
PA says the figures for Bedford, and for Blackburn with Darwen in Lancashire, show a broadly similar pattern.
Updated
Photograph: Maureen McLean/REX/Shutterstock
From the Scottish Sun’s Chris Musson
Some hope for Glasgow? 43 new cases reported in city in past 24 hours - that's down on daily totals last week, when it was over 100 for 4 days
— Chris Musson (@ChrisMusson) May 17, 2021
Tourism and hospitality bodies are calling for urgent talks with Nicola Sturgeon on Glasgow remaining in level 3 coronavirus restrictions, PA Media reports. PA says the Scottish Tourism Alliance (STA) and UKHospitality want a half-hour call with the first minister, warning that Friday’s decision not to move Glasgow to level 2 restrictions on Monday, as previously planned, has “has thrown a significant part of our industry and indeed the supply chain back into crisis mode”.
In their joint letter STA chief executive, Marc Crothall, and UKHospitality Scotland executive director, Leon Thompson, said:
While I imagine the decision to keep Glasgow at level 3 (with additional travel restrictions), amidst the growing prevalence of the so-called Indian strain of the virus will have been a hugely challenging one for government in terms of balancing the public health crisis against the urgent need for businesses within all sectors to be trading as viably as possible, this has thrown a significant part of our industry and, indeed, the supply chain back into crisis mode and the mental health, resilience and commercial viability of the sector are of considerable concern.
As PA Media reports, the letter states the £750 offered by the Scottish Government to support businesses hit by the requirement to remain in level 3 is not enough and calls for more cash. It also calls for a timescale for reviews and the criteria behind these decisions.
Hospitality premises in level 3 areas in Scotland can only serve alcohol outdoors and meals indoors must stop at 8pm.
Updated
NHS England has recorded three further coronavirus hospital deaths. That is exactly the same as the total announced on Monday last week.
Jess Phillips, the shadow minister for domestic violence, told Times Radio that Labour ought to be seen as tougher on crime than it is at the moment. Asked about the party not being seen as tough on crime, she said:
I think that potentially not as much as we should be at the moment, and that needs to be something that we absolutely lean on because today we have released policy that far outstrips anything that was in the Queen’s speech with regard to some of the most serious violent offences in our society from murder, rape.
Murder last year of women was at its highest rate since 2016. How on earth can the government claim to be the party of law and order when more women are being murdered on their watch and I’m afraid to say more men are also being murdered.
Phillips was talking about Labour’s policy plans on violence against women and girls published today. There is a Labour party summary of the plans here, and my colleague Jessica Elgot’s news story about them is here.
Updated
On Radio 4’s The World at One Andrew Lloyd Webber, the composer and musical theatre impresario, said that people who refused to take the vaccine were “selfish” because they might be holding up the lifting of restrictions for everyone else. He said that, without an assurance that all restrictions would be eased from 21 June, he would not be able to reopen his shows because it was “too costly” to play to reduced audiences.
He told the programme:
I just feel so strongly at the moment, particularly the people who are not getting vaccinated and everything, just how selfish it is because so many people depend on this June 21 date, they really depend on it.
I’d say to everybody, please support theatre and live music - it is the heartbeat of the country, what we do. It is essential. Support your theatres everywhere and get vaccinated.
Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, defended the fact that it is the prime minister himself who ultimately gets to rule on allegations about ministers breaking the ministerial code. Giving evidence to the Lords constitution committee this morning, when it was put to him that the current set-up allowed Boris Johnson to “mark his own homework”, Case said:
The role of ministers derives from a fundamental constitutional principle which is that ministers are appointed by the sovereign on the advice of the prime minister by the use of prerogative powers.
So while we have now the distinguished Lord Geidt in the role of independent adviser - other people can get involved in the role of adviser, as the title makes clear - but under our constitutional settlement, the decision, the hiring and firing of ministers is an act by the sovereign on the advice of the prime minister.
That is just one of our basic constitutional principles and sometimes people find that odd but that’s just the basics of our constitutional settlement.
Updated
Following reports that health officials in Bolton have been letting young people get vaccinated ahead of schedule, Dave West from the Health Service Journal says that in reality this has been happening quite a lot in some places.
In some areas with large ethnic minority & deprived populations, severely hit by covid, the unofficial policy, has been "we'll jab anyone" for quite a while now.
— Dave West (@Davewwest) May 17, 2021
Quite rightly for their populations, who JCVI rules are not working for. https://t.co/v26oslUCyM
No 10 signals review of social distancing rules could be delayed due to Indian variant concerns
Here are the main lines from the Downing Street lobby briefing.
- The prime minister’s spokesman signalled that a review of the future of the 1 metre-plus social distancing rule may be delayed. As PA Media reports, Boris Johnson previously said he would announce whether rules such as putting up plastic screens and sitting facing away from each other to reduce Covid risk could be relaxed by the end of May, to give businesses adequate notice before 21 June. But, asked if that deadline still applied, the spokesman said:
Our decision will be based on very latest data, and we want to allow as much time as possible to assess this, so we will set out plans as soon as the data allows.
Asked whether this meant the announcement could come after the end of the month, he added: “We can’t be definitive at this point because of this variant that has been identified.” The spokesman also refused to say the government was still committed to giving the wedding industry a month’s notice ahead of changes that might come into force on 21 June. Again, the spokesman said the government would want to look at the latest data before deciding whether full weddings would be allowed from 21 June. Currently only 30 people can attend a wedding in England.
- Matt Hancock, the health secretary, will make a statement to MPs on coronavirus this afternoon. It will start after 4pm because there is an urgent question first on antisemitism.
- The spokesman said the decision not to allow young people to be vaccinated early in areas with a high Covid risk would be kept under review. Explaining why this was not being allowed now, he said:
The JCVI [Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation] have given advice on this and their judgment is that what will not only save most lives but reduce hospitalisations is ensuring that those most at risk, predominantly those elderly groups, have the protection that two doses of vaccines provide.
And so when supplies are limited, as they still are, it’s right that we target getting two doses to those individuals rather than widening out to under-18s.
Of course we keep that under review at all times, and that’s as you would expect. But the current advice from the JCVI remains on getting second vaccinations to the most at-risk groups.
- The spokesman said the government wanted all parts of the country to abide by the JCVI advice. Asked about reports that in Bolton this guidance was not really being followed, the spokesman admitted that the guidance allowed some young people to be vaccinated early if they qualified under an exemption, such as for carers. Asked what would happen if local health officials refused to follow the JCVI rules, the spokesman refused to speculate on what he said was a hypothetical question. Asked about Glasgow taking a different approach (see 11.16am), the spokesman said health was a devolved matter, so that was a matter for the Scottish government.
- The spokesman would not endorse Kwasi Kwarteng’s claim this morning that it was “very likely” that all restrictions for England would be lifted on 21 June, as planned. (See 10.35am.) The spokesman said that Boris Johnson set out the position last week, and that at this point the government could not make a “definitive judgment” about what would be possible in June.
- The spokesman defended the government’s decision not to ban travel to amber list countries. Yesterday Hancock said that people should not travel to amber list countries for a holiday, even though this is allowed for people willing to put up with the quarantine restrictions on their return. Asked why travel to these destinations was not simply banned, the spokesman said:
Our advice is that no one should be travelling to amber countries, that’s in the interests of public health.
There may be unavoidable, essential reasons for which people still have to travel to amber list countries, that’s why the rules are there. It’s right to have this three-tiered approach because there are some limited circumstances where - for unavoidable work reasons, for example - it’s necessary to travel to these amber list countries where we know there are concerns but we don’t have specific instances of variants of concern that we would want to place an outright ban on.
- The spokesman refused to rule out a return to local lockdowns. Asked whether ministers would consider a return to a tiered system of rules, the spokesman said:
I don’t want to get ahead of where we are at the moment and start getting into hypothetical situations.
As the prime minister has set out, we’ve moved as a country into step three, albeit with a very targeted increase in surge vaccinations and testing in these areas where we’re seeing rises and that’s what we want to proceed with if at all possible but we don’t want to rule anything out.
And I think until we have more data and more evidence, we won’t be making those judgments.
- The spokesman said the government was seeking answers from Israel about attacks which destroyed the building housing the Associated Press and other media outlets in Gaza. Asked about the bombing, he said:
We are deeply concerned by UN reports that more than 23 schools and 500 homes as well as medical facilities and media offices have been destroyed or seriously damaged in Gaza.
Israel has a legitimate right to defend its citizens from attack but in doing so it must make every effort to avoid civilian casualties and military action must be proportionate and in line with international humanitarian law.
We are also concerned by reports that Hamas is again using civilian infrastructure and populations as cover for its operations.
Updated
Blair says young should be vaccinated early in places where Covid risk high
Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, has said the young should be vaccinated early in places with an upsurge in Covid cases. Backing the approach being taken formally in Glasgow (see 11.16am), and informally in Bolton, he told Times Radio:
I think, yes, absolutely you should take a differentiated approach, which is perfectly natural as you get into the final stages of the vaccination rollout. There are some areas, that will be bigger priorities than others, and it’s probably sensible when you go into those areas not simply to vaccinate the risk population, which is usually the more elderly population, but also to make sure that you’re reaching the younger people as well who can spread it.
Taking a more varied approach to the way we do the vaccine rollout at this stage, given the problems and the challenge of Indian variant, is absolutely sensible.
Blair was one of the first political figures in Britain to propose delaying vaccine second doses, so as to allow more people to get a first dose quickly. The government subsequently adopted this policy, and research suggests it has saved lives.
Britain has come top of an international survey of places where people are willing to have the coronavirus vaccine, YouGov says.
Britain continues to top the list of nations where people are willing to/already have been vaccinated
— YouGov (@YouGov) May 17, 2021
🇬🇧 90%
🇦🇪 87%
🇪🇸 84%
🇻🇳 83%
🇩🇰 82%
🇸🇦 82%
🇸🇬 78%
🇲🇾 77%
🇫🇮 77%
🇸🇪 77%
🇮🇳 76%
🇳🇴 76%
🇮🇹 76%
🇮🇩 71%
🇩🇪 71%
🇺🇸 69%
🇵🇭 66%
🇹🇭 63%
🇫🇷 60%
🇹🇼 40%
🇭🇰 37%https://t.co/BgXMDASwX8
Covid now estimated to have cost government £372bn, says NAO
The government’s response to the Covid pandemic is now estimated to have cost £372bn, according to a calculation by the National Audit Office. It has published the figure on an update to its Covid-19 cost tracker.
We’ve updated our #COVID19 cost tracker.
— National Audit Office (@NAOorguk) May 17, 2021
The estimated total cost of the government's pandemic response is now £372 billion.
Explore and download the data ➡️ https://t.co/u8OZThF3v2 pic.twitter.com/bQJrs1FsRn
Support for businesses is forecast to be the biggest spending area in the government’s pandemic response.
— National Audit Office (@NAOorguk) May 17, 2021
See where money is planned to help businesses ⬇️ or perform your own analysis with our #COVID19 cost tracker ➡️ https://t.co/y5eh122FYZ pic.twitter.com/1T5CRFcVxV
Commenting on the figures, Meg Hillier, the chair of the Commons public accounts committee, said:
Government expects to spend an eye-watering £372bn in response to the pandemic, and public accountability has never been more important.
The NAO’s cost-tracker tool is vital as the primary public data source on Covid spending across government.
With such huge sums going out the door, and government guaranteeing loans worth over £90bn, government faces a long road to recovery ahead.
Airline passengers will have to pay more for flights next year, the Ryanair chief executive, Michael O’Leary, has said. He said prices would rise in 2022 due to a 25% reduction in the number of available seats compared with before the pandemic, due to airlines reducing their operations. O’Leary told the BBC:
There’s no doubt in my mind that prices will rise, particularly during the peaks of the bank holiday weekends, the school holiday travel period. We will be urging people to book very early because I think there’s less seats and pricing will be higher.
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The National Institute for Health Research wants to recruit more than 200 pregnant women to take part in a study looking at the impact of the vaccine on them. As Dr Chrissie Jones, the chief investigator for the study, said in a statement for the news release:
While we have a large amount of real-world data which tells us that it’s safe for pregnant women to receive approved Covid-19 vaccines, the data gathered from a controlled research study like this is important because it will give us more information about the vaccine immune response in pregnant women, including the transfer of maternal antibodies to infants.
All women taking part in the study will receive two doses of the approved Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, as well as additional monitoring and support from their local research team.
People can offer to volunteer for this or other coronavirus vaccine research here.
Thousands of people have departed on international flights after the ban on foreign holidays was lifted for people in Britain, PA Media reports. Travel firms welcomed the boost in demand but called for coronavirus restrictions to be eased for more destinations. Portugal, one of just a handful of destinations on the government’s quarantine-free green list, will welcome 16 flights from England at Faro Airport in the Algarve today.
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In England councils also want to be able to carry on holding meetings online, or in a hybrid form (with some councillors there in person, and others there online). But last month the high court ruled that this was no longer allowed because the law says meetings have to take place in person and the exemption to this rule allowed under the Coronavirus Act lapsed after 7 May.
In response to the court ruling James Jamieson, chairman of the Local Government Association, said:
It is very disappointing that this last avenue to allow councils to hold online and hybrid meetings whilst Covid-19 restrictions are still in force has not been successful. Councils by law, have to hold annual meetings within 21 days following local elections, so many will now have to use very large external venues to allow all members of the council to meet in person.
In response to the ruling Luke Hall, the local government minister, wrote to council leaders saying that primary legislation would have to be passed to allow councils to continue to hold meetings online and that the government would not be able to do this
Majority of public support MPs being allowed to carry on with remote participation after Covid, poll suggests
Just over half of all Britons want remote working arrangements at parliament to continue, even when the coronavirus pandemic is over, according to a new poll, PA Media reports. PA says:
A total of 51% of those questioned agreed that MPs should be able to take part in debates and vote on legislation remotely - compared to 35% who said that MPs should be required to be in parliament to take part in debates and vote on new laws.
The research, carried out for the John Smith Centre at Glasgow University, found that almost two-thirds (61%) believed remote working at parliament would encourage more women and people with caring responsibilities to put themselves forward to be MPs.
In addition 64% of those polled said the change would allow MPs in rural areas or those who represent parts of the country a long way from Westminster to get more done.
Commenting on the findings, Kezia Dugdale, the former Scottish Labour leader who now runs the John Smith Centre, said:
As much as we all crave ‘going back to normal’, we should be asking ourselves and our leaders if that idea of ‘normal’ was really good enough.
Because it’s not really normal to line up in the ‘aye’ and ‘no’ lobbies of Westminster to cast a vote with your whole body. Hours wasted passing legislation packed together like sardines.
Neither is it normal to demand MSPs travel from Stranraer and Stromness to the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh to electronically cast a tight budget vote that we now know could be easily done from a distance.
This new polling shows a desire to keep the new way of working that was brought in as a result of Covid restrictions, particularly if it aids rural representation and increases the chances of parliamentarians looking like the country they seek to represent.
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Under-40s in Glasgow invited to get vaccinated early in response to rise in Covid cases
According to the BBC, in Glasgow people between the ages of 18 and 39 are being invited to get their vaccinations early because of the rise in the number of Covid cases in the city.
The Herald has more on the story here.
Covid vaccinations are to be made available to younger people aged 18-39 living in areas of Glasgow experiencing a spike in cases linked to a Indian variant 'of concern'. https://t.co/mjzw88nPgg
— The Herald (@heraldscotland) May 17, 2021
In the House of Lords Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, has just started giving evidence to the constitution committee about the cabinet manual. There is a live feed here.
I won’t be covering the whole hearing, but I will be monitoring it and will post any highlights.
Prof Graham Medley from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who chairs Sage’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), told LBC this morning that he thought the chances of England being able to go ahead with the full lifting of lockdown restrictions on 21 June were more than 50%. Asked about the risk full reopening in June being delayed, he said the chance of that was “well less than 50%”. He went on:
I think it’s better than 50% that we’ll go through this next phase without having to close things again rapidly, but we’re moving back to the situation we were in 2018 before all this all started when there was a risk that we would have a pandemic, but people weren’t factoring that into account. Now we are in the middle of this epidemic and so the risks are bigger, but it’s impossible to give an accurate number to it.
Asked if he would personally be going to a pub or restaurant indoors, he said:
If it was suitably organised, and it looks OK and I was in an area with low prevalence and the clientele was very old, then I would think: ‘OK, fair enough, they’ve all been vaccinated.’
I think it’s about individual risks and people taking that choice, which is different from what the government has to do which is to avoid the risk of large numbers of people in hospital again.
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On Sky News this morning Prof Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, explained why the JCVI was not backing calls for Sadiq Khan (see 9.50am) and others for the young to get vaccinated early in areas where cases of the Indian variant are high. Finn explained:
The two issues with that are that, first of all, we’re really not quite sure how well the vaccines will interrupt transmission, particularly for this new variant.
We do know they protect people against getting sick and that’s something we can hold on to and use as a strategy.
The other thing is, that after a first dose of these vaccines, it does take two/three weeks at least before that protection begins to emerge, so what you do now is not really going to have much influence over what happens over the next couple of weeks.
So for those two reasons we do need to think strategically about what we do with the vaccine doses that we’ve got at the moment over the next two weeks right around the country, in order to minimise the chances of this new variant causing a very major third wave.
Finn also said that he thought allowing people to mix now was “quite risky” given the uncertainty about the threat posed by the Indian variant. He said:
I’ve been consistent over the weekend in saying that I am very concerned that mixing people together at this particular point in time, given the uncertainties about the transmissibility of the new variant, is really actually quite risky.
Certainly on a personal level, although I don’t influence policy on this in any way, I’m advising my family and friends to continue to be very careful about making contact with each other until we’re clearer about just what’s going to happen with this variant over the next two or three weeks.
This is from my colleague Jason Rodrigues, showing how one yoga studio in north London is celebrating its reopening today.
A colourful welcome for yoga practitioners at a north London studio this morning, as further easing of lockdown measures now allow indoor classes to resume pic.twitter.com/WvunBnz66Q
— Jason Rodrigues (@RodriguesJasonL) May 17, 2021
Officials in high-risk areas should stick to timetable and not let young get vaccinated early, says minister
Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, was on TV and radio this morning as No 10’s minister for the media. Here are the main points from his interviews.
- Kwarteng appeared to criticise health officials in Bolton for allowing young people to be vaccinated early. Asked about reports that they were vaccinating “anyone who wants it” in the town, and whether he approved of this approach, Kwarteng said:
No, I think the government has very clear guidelines in terms of the ordered way in which we roll out the vaccine.
That has been working and has been a very effective rollout, and we would suggest that people should do it in the correct order, in the right way.
- He said he thought it was “very likely” that all coronavirus restrictions would be scrapped on 21 June, despite the threat of the Indian variant. Asked if he expected the full reopening to go ahead in England on 21 June, as proposed in the government’s roadmap for easing restrictions, he said:
I think it is very likely to happen. I’ve said the vaccines are working against the Indian variant, I think we’ve got to look at the numbers so we’ve got some flexibility but there is nothing I have seen and nothing the prime minister has seen up to now that suggests we are going to delay that June 21 date.
This is not quite what Boris Johnson said himself on the topic at his press conference on Friday. Johnson said:
I have to level with you that this new variant could pose a serious disruption to our progress and could make it more difficult to move to step four in June.
- Kwarteng declined to blame people who have refused to have a vaccine for potentially undermining the easing of lockdown restrictions for everyone else. Asked on the Today programme to confirm that people in this group were causing problems, Kwarteng said he did not want to stigmatise anyone. He went on:
What we are trying to do ... is encourage people who haven’t taken the vaccine to do so. I think that is being more effective - certainly at the beginning of the year, there was a certain degree of resistance to taking the vaccine.
We’re not exactly where we want to be among certain communities but I think the take-up has been much greater in the last few months and more and more people are convinced that this is the way to keep themselves and their families safe.
I would urge [those who are eligible] very clearly to take up the vaccine.
According to Alex Wickham in his London Playbook briefing this morning, in private the language from ministers is a bit stronger. Wickham writes:
The problem … a senior minister said, is that a small but significant minority of people are declining to take the vaccine when offered. The minister described the vaccine refusers as “the absolute principal threat to June 21”, warning: “If even quite a small number of people don’t take the vaccine, a variant with high transmissibility can easily cause a lot of deaths.” They summed up the problem in a blunter way than you can expect ministers to put it publicly: “The risk is that a small number of idiots ruin it for everyone else.” Health Secretary Matt Hancock told Andrew Marr yesterday that the majority of the 18 people hospitalised in Bolton “haven’t had the jab but are eligible”.
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Dr Helen Wall, who is leading the vaccination effort in Bolton, said that over the weekend more than 6,200 vaccines were administered in the area. As PA Media reports, she told BBC Breakfast that before the weekend there were around 10,000 people in the area in the highest priority groups, those deemed to be clinically vulnerable and the over-50s, who were yet to be vaccinated, but added: “I’m hoping that we’ve made a big dent into that now”.
London mayor says under-40s should be vaccinated early in areas at risk from Indian variant
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, told Sky News this morning that the government should allow the under-40s to be vaccinated early in areas where the Indian variant is prevalent. Urging a a “hyper-local approach”, he said local health officials should be given the “flexibility to give younger people the vaccine in those parts of London concerned about this strain”.
This is not an approach that has been approved by the government, although in Bolton, where rates of the Indian variant are high, there are reports that people under the age of 40 have been able to get vaccinated because the official guidance on who should get priority for a jab is being interpreted with considerable flexibility.
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Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust health foundation, told the Today programme this morning that he personally would not be meeting people indoors yet. He said:
I think it is reasonable to just be sensible about knowing where transmission is occurring, mostly indoors, mostly in larger gatherings indoors with lots of different people, different families, different communities, and I would just restrict that at the moment personally.
But Farrar said he was not opposed to restrictions being lifted. “I don’t think it’s unreasonable to lift the restrictions - we do need to lift the restrictions at some point, we’ve been in restrictions now for a very long time,” he said.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is also urging people to be cautious. She posted this on Twitter this morning.
Covid restrictions ease further today as many parts of Scotland move to level 2 (sadly not yet Glasgow City or Moray) and many islands to level 1. This is a long awaited moment but remember that the virus still poses a big threat, so please continue to be cautious & very careful.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) May 17, 2021
Photograph: Neil Hall/EPA
Boris Johnson urges ‘heavy dose of caution’ as Britain lifts many more restrictions
Good morning. Britain has today reached what is probably the most important milestone in the easing of lockdown restrictions, with indoor hospitality back open and a wide range of restrictions being lifted in England, Scotland and Wales. (There are differences in each country, of course; the BBC has a good nation-by-nation guide here.) A week ago Boris Johnson adopted an upbeat tone as he confirmed that today’s opening up would go ahead. But within the last seven days new evidence about the spread of the variant originally from India, B.1.617.2, has triggered considerable concern, and in a statement issued overnight Johnson said that people should take this next step “with a heavy dose of caution”.
Johnson said:
Together we have reached another milestone in our roadmap out of lockdown, but we must take this next step with a heavy dose of caution.
We are keeping the spread of the variant first identified in India under close observation and taking swift action where infection rates are rising.
The current data does not indicate unsustainable pressure on the NHS and our extraordinary vaccination programme will accelerate – with second doses being bought forward to give the most vulnerable maximum protection.
But now everyone must play their part – by getting tested twice a week, coming forward for your vaccine when called and remembering hands, face, space and fresh air.
I urge everyone to be cautious and take responsibility when enjoying new freedoms today in order to keep the virus at bay.
Given that Johnson has been widely criticised for repeatedly failing to take decisions that might have saved more lives, some may feel that he not the best person to champion the benefits of acting “with a heavy dose of caution”. But his language has been heavily influenced by the advice he is getting from Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. On Friday it released this paper (pdf) saying that B.1.617.2 may be 50% more transmissible than B.1.1.7, the so-called Kent variant, which is now the dominant one in the UK, and that if this is the case, the consequences could be severe. It said:
SPI-M-O [the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group] is confident that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible than B.1.1.7, and it is a realistic possibility that this new variant of concern could be 50% more transmissible. If B.1.617.2 does have such a large transmission advantage, it is a realistic possibility that progressing with all roadmap steps would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations.
It will take a few weeks until it is clear whether or not B.1.617.2 is 50% more transmissible. Until then there will be a lot of nervousness about opening up, as well as uncertainty about whether step 4, the lifting of all legal restrictions in England planned for 21 June, will be able to go ahead.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: The ONS publishes a report on working from home.
11am: Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, gives evidence to the Lords constitution committee about the cabinet manual.
12pm: Downing Street is due to hold its lobby briefing.
2.30pm: Lord Frost, the Brexit minister, gives evidence to the European scrutiny committee, about the Northern Ireland protocol.
Politics Live has been a mix of Covid and non-Covid recently. Today I will be focusing mostly on coronavirus, although I plan to cover the non-Covid committee hearings that look interesting. For more Covid coverage, do read our global live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
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