Here is the Nervtag paper published on the new UK variant, which was referenced in the press conference earlier this evening.
The variant appears to have increased transmissibility compared to other variants in the UK and some recent analyses have been undertaken which show that there may be an increase in the severity of disease associated with this new variant, as the prime minister announced.
However, there are limitations to the data and further research is crucial.
Dr Susan Hopkins, the strategic response director at PHE said:
There is evidence from some but not all data sources which suggests that the variant of concern which was first detected in the UK may lead to a higher risk of death than the non-variant. Evidence on this variant is still emerging and more work is underway to fully understand how it behaves.
Covid-19 is still very much with us and causing severe illness and death. The most important thing is to stay at home. Wash your hands regularly and thoroughly, cover you face and keep your distance. Remember that every unnecessary contact with someone else may create a chain of transmission that eventually leads to a vulnerable person becoming seriously unwell.
Evening summary
- There is ‘some evidence’ that the new variant of the coronavirus first identified in London and the South East may be associated with a higher degree of mortality, Boris Johnson said. For men in their 60’s that means an increase from roughly 10 in 1,000 deaths to about 13-14 deaths. Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance stressed there are many caveats and a lot of uncertainty around this, with some reports finding no increased risk at all, so more research is needed. Scientists are fairly confident that the new variant is between 30-70% more transmissible than the original. Current evidence shows that both vaccines are effective against both the old and the new variant. More research is needed into whether the South African and Brazilian variants could be less susceptible to vaccines.
- The government can’t consider unlocking while case numbers are so high until the vaccine is working and it’s sure the new variants aren’t more deadly or transmissible, the prime minister said. Johnson also said he didn’t want to risk another rebound with the virus, where infections spiral and restrictions have to be toughened as has been the case after ever lockdown so far. Johnson’s thinking is there is a need to be extra cautious about lifting restrictions. He is under great pressure from his own backbenchers about relaxing restrictions once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.
- The number of people in hospitals in the UK is 78% higher than during the first peak in April, though that increase is now flattening out in some parts of the country. Chris Whitty said the reduction of cases in hospital and deaths will take a while yet and warned that incidence of the virus remains “extraordinarily high”.
- 5.4m first doses of the vaccine have now been given, with a record 400,000 administered in the last 24 hours. Overall 1 in 10 adults in England have now been vaccinated, including 71% of the over-80s and two-thirds of care home residents. 151,000 vaccinations have been done in Northern Ireland, 358,000 in Scotland and 212,000 in Wales. The prime minister said the government remains confident in its goal of giving a first dose of the vaccine to everyone in the top four priority groups by the end of February.
- The R value of Covid-19 transmission has fallen and is now estimated to be between 0.8 and 1 across the UK, according to Sage. Sage scientists said: “It is essential that everyone continues to stay at home, whether they have had the vaccine or not. We all need to play our part, and if everyone continues to follow the rules, we can expect to drive down the R number across the country.”
- A further 1,401 people died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total to 95,981, according to government data.
That’s all for today. If you would like to continue following the Guardian’s worldwide coverage of the pandemic, head over to our global live blog.
Everyone across the UK will be asked “Can you look them in the eyes and tell them you’re helping by staying at home?” in a new government advertising campaign which will act as a stark reminder to the public of the ongoing impact of Covid-19 and the extreme pressures facing frontline workers.
The hard-hitting national TV ad represents a marked shift in tone, featuring raw footage and testimonials from patients who have Covid-19, as well as the NHS staff who are working around the clock to look after them at Basingstoke and North Hampshire Hospital.
The adverts will remind the public, including those who have had the vaccine, of the ongoing need for caution when on public transport, or shopping, and to make sure they only use these services when it is essential to do so and to adhere to the principles of hands, face and space. It asks viewers if they can look frontline workers in the eyes and tell them they are helping to stop the spread by following the rules and staying at home.
It will launch on ITV and Channel 4 this evening and across radio, out of home, digital and across social media from Saturday evening.
Across the country, someone is admitted every 30 seconds with the virus, and a quarter of those are under the age of 55. There are currently over 38,000 beds taken up in England by patients with Covid-19.
The latest data shows the UK has seen the highest number of deaths recorded from Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, with over 1,000 people dying per day for the last 10 days.
The health and social care secretary, Matt Hancock, said:
The NHS is under intense pressure. They are relying on all of us to follow the rules. The message couldn’t be clearer - stay at home.
Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, said:
The impact of the current wave is still putting significant pressure on hospitals across the country and many patients are very sick. Vaccines give clear hope for the future, but for now we must all continue to play our part in protecting the NHS and saving lives.
Updated
Q. Does the decision to delay the second dose risk increasing vaccine resistance and make the virus more dangerous?
Q. Can you give reassurance that you’ll continue furlough beyond April if restrictions are still in place?
Vallance says the most risky part about new mutations is high prevalence of the virus.
There’s also a benefit to partial immunity as it could stop the infection quicker, he adds.
Whitty says medicine is about balance of risk.
The view is that the balance of risk is in favour of having many more people vaccinated, he says.
Johnson says the government will do whatever it takes to support jobs and livelihoods.
That’s it. The press conference is over.
Q. Are the British public ready for how long it could take to lift restrictions?
Q. Could we have mitigation measures in for quite some time?
Johnson says it’s an open question as to when and in what way we can start to relax any of the measures.
He says it depends on the vaccine rollout, no further discoveries of new variants, getting incidence down.
Vallance adds the virus isn’t going anywhere and will probably be around forever, but will be controlled.
New anti-viral drugs are going into clinical stages through this year, he adds.
We mustn’t get too hooked up on specific dates as we need to measure carefully in order to release, he adds.
Q. Is the South African variant could be 50% more resistant to the vaccine than the original and will you close the borders to all foreign travellers?
Q. One study found the new strain could be up to 91% more deadly than the original - why this discrepancy?
Johnson says non-UK travellers from South Africa have been banned since 24 December.
He adds that now any arrivals have to test within 72 hours of flying, produce a passenger locator form and 10-day quarantine is in effect.
He says he doesn’t rule out further measures still in protecting the borders.
Vallance says these are difficult lab studies which will get different results.
Some papers have suggested no increase in mortality at all, he adds, so there’s a range of data.
We mustn’t pick the highest number and assume that’s correct, he says.
Whitty adds that some other vaccines still protect against severe disease and dying, even if they are less effective against infection because of a change.
Q. If the new variant is more deadly, is it right that the rules are more lax than in the first wave? What more could you be doing?
Q. Why does the new variant spread more easily?
Q. With R below one, are we at or even past the peak of infections?
Johnson says they’re enforcing the law stringently, e.g through fines when people break lockdown, and the rules are clear - people must stay at home.
There are signs that this is working but it will need continued resolve, he says.
Vallance says it may be that the new variant binds more solidly to the receptor and gets into cells more easily or grows more readily in certain cell types.
Whitty says infections remain at a very high level across the country as a whole and it could start taking off again from this very high rate.
He says in some areas of the country and in some age groups, e.g. aged 20-30, it is still increasingly.
The peak of deaths could still be in the future, he says.
This moment is precarious and if people thought it was over now, we would get into very deep trouble very fast and the NHS is absolutely at the top of what it can manage, he says.
Updated
Johnson adds it remains the government’s intention to review the circumstances on 15 February.
But the rate of infection is forbiddingly high and there’s a need to be realistic about that, he adds.
'We can't unlock with rates of infection so very high' - Johnson
Q. How likely is it that the current lockdown restrictions will last longer now, perhaps beyond the spring into the summer? Are you considering tougher restrictions in the short term?
Q. How much of the South African variant do you estimate is already here and how likely is it of a similar strain developing here?
Johnson says this is the right package of measures to deal with the new variant and they don’t want to change them.
They want to see people obeying the measures, he adds.
In some areas it’s encouraging that infections are coming down but they’re still very high, he says.
So when it comes to unlocking, he says, we can’t consider it until the vaccination programme is working and we don’t have new variants.
The rate of infection is still so high, so we can’t unlock only to have another big rebound, he adds.
We must obey the current lockdown, he says.
Vallance says the latest PHE data suggests 44 people (with an upper limit of 71) have been detected with the South African variant.
Key is identifying and contact tracing in order to contain, he says.
There’s no evidence the South African and Brazilian variants are able to transmit more quickly or take over and become the dominant variant, he says.
They are taking questions from the media now.
Q. Do you expect the daily reported death toll to carry on rising for longer?
Q. What do you make of news from Israel that the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine may not be as effective as first thought?
Whitty says mortality is driven by the rate of decrease of the virus over time, but that’s going to be slow and from a very high base and is delayed.
Vallance adds the death rate will stay high for a little while before it starts coming down.
On the Israeli data, he says this is preliminary info and this will have to be monitored very carefully.
Q. Can those who have been vaccinated mix together?
Whitty says even with a very effective vaccine, there’s a period of time straight after where there’s no effect for 2 or 3 weeks.
That protection won’t even be complete with two vaccines, he says.
At the moment, a very large proportion of people you come into contact with could have the virus, he says - on average 1 in 55, or 1 in 35 in London.
There is a residual risk even if you’ve had the vaccine, he says.
The rates of infections need to come right down by staying at home while others get vaccinated, he says.
Vallance says we still don’t know how effective the vaccines are at stopping you from catching the virus or passing the virus on.
It’s very important not to assume you can’t catch it or pass it on after vaccination, he says.
They are taking questions from the public now.
Q. Will the delay in getting a second dose of the vaccine reduce levels of protection and if so how much?
Whitty says the first dose gives the great majority of the protection, but the second increases that and makes it longer lasting too.
The idea is to double the number of people that can get vaccinated, he says.
Because our major limitation is the number of vaccines the UK has to give, half the number of people would have been vaccinated in this very risky period if we hadn’t extended the time, he says.
Once you get protection initially it lasts a reasonable period of time, he says, likely up to five months, like if you had the virus.
Updated
On the South African and Brazilian variants, Vallance says there is concern they have certain features that they might be less susceptible to vaccines.
More clinical information is needed to understand the effect and they are of more concern than the new UK variant, he says.
Updated
On vaccines, Vallance says, there’s increasing evidence that the new UK variant will be susceptible to the vaccines.
New UK variant could be up to 30% more deadly than original
For someone aged 60 the average risk is that for 1,000 people who got infected, roughly 10 would be expected to die with the old virus, he says.
With the new virus, roughly 13 or 14 people might be expected to die, he says.
He said you would see this across the different age groups too.
He stresses there is uncertainty around these numbers but there seems to be an increase in mortality as well as transmissibility.
Updated
Patrick Vallance is speaking now.
The new UK variant is transmitting between 30% and 70% more easily than the old one, he says.
It doesn’t have a difference in terms of age distribution, he says.
On severity and mortality, he says data on patients in hospitals, the outcomes for those with the old and new variants are the same.
However, with anyone who has tested positive, there’s evidence of an increased risk in those who have the new variant compared to the old virus, he says.
The data is currently uncertain, he stresses.
Updated
The number of people who tested positive then died shortly after is continuing to climb due to the delayed effect, he says.
The number of deaths is steadily increasing and the most recent seven-day rolling average is more than 1,000 deaths a day – a very high rate that will probably continue to go up and take a while to come down, he says.
Updated
The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 in the UK is increasing all the time, Whitty says.
It’s now at an “extraordinarily high” level, but there is evidence in London and the south-east of some reduction, he says.
In parts of the Midlands and the north it is still increasing, he says.
The reduction of cases in hospital will take weeks yet, he says, crediting how hard NHS staff are working.
Updated
Chris Whitty is speaking now.
ONS data shows the estimated number of people testing positive for Covid-19 in England has “turned a corner” and infections have gone down, he says.
But still a situation where 1 in 55 people in England have the virus, he adds.
Both vaccines remain effective against both the new variant and the original, he says.
5.38 million people have now been given their first dose of the vaccine across the UK, he says.
New variant may be more deadly than the original, Johnson says
The prime minister is speaking now.
There is some evidence that the new variant of coronavirus, first discovered in London and other parts of the south-east of England, may be associated with a higher degree of mortality, Boris Johnson has said.
Updated
Boris Johnson's press conference
The prime minister is about to hold a Downing Street press conference, due to begin shortly. He will be joined by Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, and Patrick Vallance, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser.
This below thread is from ITV’s Robert Peston who has spoken to Prof Neil Ferguson, who sits on Nervtag, the UK government’s virus advisory committee, who suggests the new UK variant of coronavirus could be up to 30% more deadly than the original.
Ferguson told ITV the latest data showed up to 13 in 1000 people aged 60 who contract the variant - first discovered in Kent - could die, compared with 10 in 1000 who caught the original variant.
He said the data available on the new variant is patchy, but there is a “signal” that there is a “1.3-fold increased risk of death”.
It has previously been learned that the new variant, which has now been reported across the UK and in several other countries, is also up to 70% more transmissible than the original.
The government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (or Nervtag) has concluded that the new Covid-19 strain may be a bit more lethal than the existing strain. I've spoken to the influential Nervtag member, Prof Neil Ferguson (@neil_ferguson)...
— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 22, 2021
about this. He has given me this statement: "it is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty. Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people...
— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 22, 2021
testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death. That suggests a 1.3-fold increased risk of death. So for 60 year-olds, 13 in 1000 might die compared with 10 in 1000 for old strains. The big caveat is that we only know which strain people were infected...
— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 22, 2021
with for about 8% of deaths. Only about 25% of people who eventually die from COVID get a pillar 2 test before they are hospitalised (at which point they get a pillar 1 test, but pillar 1 tests don’t tell us which strain they were infected with). And we can only...
— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 22, 2021
distinguish the new variant from the old variant for about 1/3 of pillar 2 tests. All that said, the signal is there and is consistent across different age groups, regions and ethnicities." The worrying news is that although treatments for Covid-19 have improved, the new
— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 22, 2021
strain does seem to be more lethal. I understand @uksciencechief will address this issue at the press conferene with @BorisJohnson later today
— Robert Peston (@Peston) January 22, 2021
Updated
1,401 further Covid-linked deaths registered in the UK
In the UK, 1,401 more people have died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total to 95,981, according to government data.
The daily number is up from the 1,290 further Covid deaths recorded yesterday.
The government also said that, as of 9am on Friday, there had been a further 40,261 lab-confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK.
Government data up to 21 January shows that of the 5,849,899 jabs given in the UK so far, 5,383,103 were first doses – a rise of 409,855 on the previous day’s figures.
A total of 466,796 were second doses, an increase of 2,760 on figures released the previous day.
#COVID19 VACCINE UPDATE: Daily figures on the number of people who have received a COVID-19 vaccine in the UK.
— Department of Health and Social Care (@DHSCgovuk) January 22, 2021
As of 22 January 5,383,103 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination.
Visit the @PHE_uk dashboard for more info:
▶️️https://t.co/cQkuLQglz1 pic.twitter.com/erwend4ujV
See the official release here.
Updated
The leaders of West Yorkshire councils have asked the government to reverse a reduction in the allocation of Covid vaccines to the county as part of a plan to give other regions a chance to catch up, PA Media reports.
A statement said:
The decision to halve the allocation of vaccine to West Yorkshire and divert some of it to other areas will cause anxiety for all those waiting to receive their jab and already stretched NHS staff. It also risks widening the health inequalities that this pandemic has exposed and which have not been properly addressed in the vaccine rollout programme. The prime minister has described the vaccination programme as a ‘race against time’ but our region will struggle to win that race if we cannot have certainty that vaccine deliveries will happen on the promised schedule and in the expected quantities. If some parts of the country are progressing at a slower rate, the answer should be to support those areas, not to penalise those that are delivering faster. We strongly urge the government to reverse this decision and to focus on working with the vaccine manufacturers to address the supply issue that is at the core of this problem.”
Updated
Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, has called for stricter rules on wearing face coverings outside after revealing that more than 12,000 people in London have died with Covid-19.
Khan had previously told the Guardian that “the government’s original distribution formula meant that London missed out on its early fair share of the vaccine”.
There have now been over 12,000 deaths across our city, and the NHS remains under extreme pressure.
— Sadiq Khan (@SadiqKhan) January 22, 2021
This cannot continue - so I'm repeating my call on the Government to tighten lockdown measures.https://t.co/puXOpjOTAq
Updated
Priti Patel, the home secretary, has paid tribute to PC Michael Warren, the 37-year-old Met police officer who died after testing positive for Covid-19 (see earlier post).
My thoughts and prayers go out to PC Warren’s family, friends and colleagues in the Met at this incredibly difficult time.
— Priti Patel (@pritipatel) January 22, 2021
PC Warren was a truly dedicated officer who went above and beyond to support his team and served the communities of London with unwavering commitment. https://t.co/f01tQ7MCfj
Updated
Foreign NHS workers treating Covid patients are at risk of being denied vaccinations because of internal guidelines about who can receive the jab, the Guardian has learned.
Read the full story here first:
Updated
A new mass vaccination centre is opening at Stoneleigh Park near Kenilworth, Warwickshire, Dr Sarah Raistrick, a GP and chair of both NHS Coventry and Rugby and Warwickshire North clinical commissioning groups, has confirmed.
Dr Raistrick said:
It is good news for our area that alongside the site in Birmingham at Millennium Point, we will be having another mass vaccination centre at Stoneleigh agricultural park and that will be opening next week.
The site is hoped to be be operational by the middle of next week, but would be dependent on supplies of vaccine.
Updated
The Duke of Cambridge heard stories of care home residents crying with joy and clapping for each other after having the Covid-19 jab, during a chat with medical staff involved with the vaccine rollout, PA reports.
Dr Lauren Dixon, a GP from Cumbria, told Prince William about the happy scenes she had witnessed and how care home residents viewed the vaccine as their “ticket” to see family again after months apart. The duke spoke to NHS workers across the four nations to learn about the programme to inoculate millions of the elderly and vulnerable.
Dixon’s practice, the Bridgegate Medical Centre in Barrow-in-Furness, is one of 10 that form the Barrow and Millom Primary Care Network that has completed inoculations for all its residents aged over 80 and 75, as well as care home residents, after beginning vaccinations in mid-December. She said:
The care homes have had an absolutely awful time, they’ve really been through the mill over the last year. Some of their staff have just gone above and beyond for their residents, stayed all weekend sometimes because that’s what they’ve needed to do. So, I think for us, as soon as we had the opportunity to get out to the care homes we felt really excited. And then when we got there, you know the residents were just so happy.
Dixon added:
They’ve been seeing their relatives maybe on videos, if they’re lucky, and sometimes through the window. But they all were just kind of like ‘this is our ticket to being able to see our family again’. So we had tears, they were clapping each other when they got the vaccines and it was just a real privilege actually to be able to support them with that.
In her role as GP executive lead on integrated care for NHS Morecambe Bay clinical commissioning group, Dixon has also been supporting the vaccination programme across the Morecambe Bay area.
Updated
PM faces 'mother of all arguments' over Covid restrictions next month
Boris Johnson faces the “mother of all arguments” next month when he comes under pressure to loosen the lockdown while the NHS remains seriously stretched, a government adviser has predicted.
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, a member of Sage, warned that intensive care units will still be strained even as deaths drop significantly.
A large number of Tory backbenchers are likely to be among those heaping pressure on the prime minister at that point to ease England’s third national lockdown.
Spiegelhalter said “the benefits of the vaccine” will begin being seen next month, as he welcomed the “very encouraging news” that the R is estimated to be below 1 across the UK (see 1.40pm.).
That suggests the current restrictions are causing the virus to retreat, and the average infected person is spreading Covid-19 to fewer than one individual.
The University of Cambridge academic told BBC News he is not one for predictions, but added:
The one thing I can be absolutely confident about is that, by this time next month, there is going to be the mother of all arguments.
Because it’s quite feasible that deaths will have come down considerably, infections should have come down considerably, hospitalisations and ICU will still be under a lot of pressure. There will be enormous pressure to loosen things up.
Loosening it up will inevitably lead to an increase in cases, a resurgence of the pandemic among younger groups, and we can see then that does seep through into hospitalisations. So there’s going to be a real battle going on.
Updated
A further 993 people who tested positive for coronavirus have died in hospital in England, bringing the total number of confirmed deaths reported in hospitals to 65,104, NHS England said on Friday.
Patients were aged between 23 and 102. All except 47, aged between 32 and 96, had known underlying health conditions. The deaths were between 12 December and 21 January.
There were 68 other deaths reported with no positive Covid-19 test result.
A drinks event involving the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, Paul Davies, that took place when pubs in Wales were banned from serving alcohol on their premises under Covid laws is to be investigated by the standards commissioner and Cardiff council.
The Senedd commission, which manages the Welsh parliament, launched an internal investigation into the event, which took place inside the building’s tearoom.
Elin Jones, the Llywydd (presiding officer) said on Friday: “The commission’s internal investigation has established that alcohol was consumed by five individuals in the Senedd’s licensed tearoom, four of whom are elected members.
“The investigation has concluded that a possible breach of regulations occurred and therefore the chief executive of the Senedd commission has referred the matter to Cardiff council.
“The regulations in place at the time imposed strict restrictions on members of the public with regard to the consumption of alcohol.
“Given that the possible breach in question occurred as a result of the consumption of alcohol by members of the Senedd, I have also written to the standards commissioner to ask him to investigate whether these members acted in accordance with the duty in the code of conduct to conduct themselves in a manner which maintains and strengthens the public’s trust and confidence in the integrity of the Senedd.”
The Tory group at the Senedd said it had voted unanimously for Davies to remain leader. Davies has denied breaking the rules but apologised over the incident.
Updated
The Ministry of Defence is drawing up a list of hundreds of key personnel who should be a top priority for receiving a Covid vaccine in the coming weeks, who are understood include members of the SAS and Trident submarine crews, the defence secretary said on Friday.
Ben Wallace said work was going on to “identify the key people” across “the rest of the wider defence enterprise” at a time when other key worker groups, such as police, teachers and fire workers have been lobbying to be moved up the priority list. In a pooled interview, he said:
We have identified some people that are absolutely key to the essential operation of defence operations to the UK. I can’t say who they are because that would undermine the security of it [but] we expect them to get a vaccine as soon as possible.
Insiders said no key personnel had been vaccinated yet – other than the 1,600 military doctors and nurses who are already seconded to the NHS – and that there was no immediate call to for them to jump the queue, which calls for the over-70s and NHS and care workers to be vaccinated by 15 February.
The military’s key personnel include those engaged in counter-terrorism, such as the elite SAS special forces, plus the Trident nuclear submarine crews who have to be away for months at a time.
But they stressed immunisations were not urgently required. “These are fit and healthy people, and we should be able to prevent outbreaks through good practice and protocols,” a defence source added.
Updated
Downing Street has ruled out the idea of paying £500 to people in England who test positive for coronavirus, but declined to comment on other possible moves to try and increase the proportion of those with symptoms who do seek a test.
Asked about the idea, set out in a health department paper seen by the Guardian, Boris Johnson’s spokesman said:
There are no plans to introduce an extra £500 payment. As you’re aware, we already offer a £500 payment to those on low incomes who cannot work from home.
But asked if there were any plans to widen such support schemes in any way, or whether the idea had been looked at, the spokesman said only: “There are no plans to introduce an extra £500 payment.”
The R value has fallen to between 0.8-1 across the UK, Sage says
The reproduction number, or R value, of Covid-19 transmission has fallen and is now estimated to be between 0.8 and 1 across the UK, according to the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).
Last week, the value was between 1.2 and 1.3 (if the figure is above 1, it means the outbreak is growing exponentially). The last time it was below 1 was in December.
An R number between 0.8 and 1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 10 other people.
Sage scientists said:
It is essential that everyone continues to stay at home, whether they have had the vaccine or not. We all need to play our part, and if everyone continues to follow the rules, we can expect to drive down the R number across the country.
Updated
Absence rates for primary school teachers with Covid-19 were six times higher in England than for children in the same settings, an analysis suggests.
PA media reports:
Teacher absences due to a confirmed case of coronavirus were up to three times higher in secondary schools than those of pupils, according to research from the Education Policy Institute (EPI) thinktank. It is “highly likely” that more teachers had a confirmed case of Covid-19 during the autumn term than the wider adult population, but more government data is needed to confirm this, the report says. Approximately 0.5% to 0.9% of primary teachers in England were absent due to a confirmed Covid-19 case during the autumn term, compared with 0.05% to 0.15% of primary pupils, the analysis finds. About 0.6% to 1% of secondary teachers were absent compared with 0.2% to 0.3% for secondary pupils.
Updated
More from the Guardian’s reporter Steven Morris:
Asked about the UK government proposal to pay £500 to everyone in England who tests positive for Covid-19, the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, said:
I think it was a kite flown overnight that has come very firmly down to earth this morning with UK ministers denying this was ever a serious proposition. If the UK government were to institute such a scheme we would of course expect to have an equivalent sum of money to allow us to do something here in Wales.
Here are the graphs that were shown in today's press conference 👇 pic.twitter.com/YtE4WwBzRQ
— Welsh Government #StayHome🏠 (@WelshGovernment) January 22, 2021
Nicola Sturgeon also addressed the story on the front page of the Daily Record this morning, which reported that painters carried out work last week at her official residence Bute House despite the ban on non-essential building work by her own government.
Sturgeon clarified that she had not stayed at the residence since before the first lockdown, when she decided to minimise her own contacts and exposure of staff by remaining in her private home.
She said that the work was “essential safety work” to pin part of a ceiling and that no painting was done.
Just to be very clear, the rules that we living under right now apply to me and government ministers, just as much as they do to everyone else...I know people get really angry if they do get the suggestion that I get special dispensation. I don’t and nor should I have.
The number of Covid cases is falling across Wales but the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, has said there is still only “marginal headroom at best” to begin lifting lockdown restrictions when they are reviewed next week.
But he revealed he had asked the chief medical officer, Dr Frank Atherton, if there was “any prospect” of more children returning to school in the week before half term. He has not had the reply yet.
Drakeford said the seven-day case rate for Wales has dropped to around 270 cases per 100,000 people compared with more than 650 before Christmas. The first minister also said the number of people being admitted to hospital was stabilising.
He said the Welsh government is on target “to hit our first milestone” of offering vaccination to its first four priority groups by mid-February.”
Drakeford was challenged about his government’s promise that 70% of over-80s would be vaccinated by Sunday.
Figures released by Public Health Wales on Friday said 30.2% of those aged over 80 have received their first dose – but advised this was a snapshot and the real figures will be higher.
The first minister said the government hoped to vaccinate 70% of over-80s by the end of Sunday but suggested the official figures on Monday would not support this because there is a lag in the statistics.
Announcing 1,480 new cases of coronavirus at her daily briefing, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon said that there were some grounds for optimism, noting it is “the first day in a long time that test positivity has been under 7%”.
Asked about UK government plans to give the £500 self-isolation grant to all, reported in the Guardian yesterday, she said she would “welcome it” and that her government is continually looking at what it can do to support people with self-isolation.
Following the cancellation of Glastonbury for another year yesterday, Sturgeon said that people had to be “realistic and pragmatic” – “it’s going to be a bit longer before big-scale events become possible again”, adding that she can’t say with any certainty if that will be by the summer.
Coastguard teams are undertaking a relay journey of 140 miles, including two ferry crossings, to transfer Covid test samples from Barra for processing as the outbreak on the island continues, with 47 positive cases and a fourth person airlifted to hospital.
The transfer will continue every weekend until the outbreak is deemed under control by NHS Western Isles, to ensure completed tests can be processed quickly.
Rescue teams will carry tests from Barra to the island’s ferry, then another team will transport tests by road to the Berneray ferry terminal, and the final part of the journey is completed by either Harris or Stornoway coastguards as they collect samples from the ferry in Leverburgh and carry out the final road transfer to Western Isles Hospital, Stornoway, for processing.
Josh Halliday, the Guardian’s North of England correspondent, has more on the news he broke about the proposals of paying £500 to those who test positive for coronavirus.
Some experts have warned it could act as “a bounty” for people to catch the disease, with some people claiming it would encourage irresponsible behaviour.
Read his latest story on how the idea has divided opinion here:
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Condemning the wedding party held in Stamford Hill, Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis has tweeted:
This is a most shameful desecration of all that we hold dear. At a time when we are all making such great sacrifices, it amounts to a brazen abrogation of the responsibility to protect life & such illegal behaviour is abhorred by the overwhelming majority of the Jewish community.
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Public Health Wales said a total of 212,317 first doses of the Covid vaccine had now been administered, a rise of 21,882 on the previous day’s figure.
PA media reports:
The agency say 415 second doses were also given, an increase of 19. In total, 30.2% of those aged over 80 have received their first dose of the vaccine, along with 59.9% of care home residents and 69.8% of care home staff. Health minister Vaughan Gething previously said he expected 70% of the over-80s, care home residents and care home staff to have received their first jab by 25 January.
Even though more young people have been infected, hospital admissions and deaths involving #COVID19 are highest among those aged over 65 years.
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 22, 2021
Hospital admissions decreased in most age groups in the week ending 17 January https://t.co/Lqei9r4Efv pic.twitter.com/5c1ujUxtCs
Around 1 in 35 people in London tested positive for Covid-19 last week, ONS estimates
The latest ONS statistics are in. Here are some of the key findings:
- During the week ending 16 January 2021, London had the highest percentage of people testing positive, with an estimated 2.89% of people in the capital having had Covid-19, equating to around 1 in 35 people.
- In England, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 remained high but decreased slightly in the week ending 16 January 2021. The ONS estimates that 1,023,700 people within the community population in England had the virus, equating to around 1 in 55 people.
- In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive levelled off over the week ending 16 January 2021. The ONS estimates that 44,000 people in Wales had the coronavirus, equating to around 1 in 70 people.
- In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive increased in the week ending 16 January 2021, while in Scotland the percentage of people testing positive levelled off.
Read all the findings here.
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Phillip Glanville, the mayor of Hackney in north London, has said the Stamford Hill school where Covid regulations were breached with a wedding celebration had previously been used for similar events during the pandemic.
Police officers broke up a wedding with about 400 guests at Yesodey Hatorah senior girls’ school in Egerton Road at 9.15pm on Thursday night (see earlier post).
Glanville told BBC News:
It’s a deeply disturbing incident at a time when in Hackney we have seen the largest number of deaths reported since last April. Unfortunately, similar events have taken place even at this venue before and we need to be really clear how unacceptable it is.
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A double-dip recession is “on the cards” after the UK’s private sector saw activity plunge this month due to the latest set of lockdown restrictions, new data indicates.
PA Media reports:
The closely watched IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite PMI report showed a reading of 40.6 so far in January. Anything below 50 is seen as a decline in activity. It is significantly below the expectations of analysts, who predicted a reading of 46.1 for the month. A steep slump in business activity in January puts the locked down UK economy on course to contract sharply in the first quarter of 2021, meaning a double-dip recession is on the cards,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
Read our business live blog for the latest financial coverage.
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New research from the Institute for Employment Studies has found that low-paid workers are more than twice as likely to have lost their jobs over the pandemic.
The findings, which you can read here in full, said it was likely that around 4m workers have been temporarily laid off or are working fewer hours than usual.
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A wedding attended by about 400 people at a north London school has been broken up by police, with the organiser facing a £10,000 fine. Read the Met’s full statement here.
Priti Patel, the home secretary, yesterday announced a new fine of £800 for people caught at house parties, signalling a tougher stance on blatant Covid guideline breaches.
Organiser of wedding in Stamford Hill to be considered for £10,000 COVID breach fine.
— Hackney Police (gov.uk/coronavirus) (@MPSHackney) January 22, 2021
Officers responded and found around 400 people inside the venue. @MPSSpecials https://t.co/qUi2hjoh27
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Covid-linked deaths are being investigated at more than 450 care homes in Scotland.
PA Media reports:
The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service’s dedicated Covid-19 Death Investigation Team (CDIT) is probing the circumstances of coronavirus-related deaths in 474 care homes across the country. The CDIT was set up in May after Lord Advocate James Wolffe QC said all confirmed or suspected coronavirus deaths in care homes should be reported to the Crown Office, as well as deaths of people who may have contracted the virus at work. The team had received 2,242 death reports as of Monday, with a majority of those believed to be linked to people who lived in care homes.
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There have been disproportionate rates of premature death from Covid-19 among patients of Asian and black ethnicity, a large cohort study has found.
The research, published in the journal BMJ Open, is based on nearly 1,800 patients admitted to five acute hospitals within Barts Health NHS trust between January 1 and May 13 2020.
The study found that patients from minority ethnic backgrounds were younger and less frail, compared with white patients, PA Media reports.
It also showed that black patients were 1.8 times, and Asian patients 1.54 times, more likely to be admitted to an intensive care unit and need mechanical ventilation.
The study author, Dr Yize Wan, a clinical lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, said:
Our study shows the disproportionate impact of Covid-19 on black and Asian groups in the first peak. Black and Asian people admitted to Barts Health hospitals with Covid-19 were significantly younger in age, had greater acute disease severity, and higher mortality relative to white patients of the same age and baseline health. As the impact of Covid-19 continues to be seen within our community, the importance of responding to the ethnic disparities unmasked during the Covid-19 pandemic is crucial to prevent entrenching and inflicting them on future generations.
Experts and politicians have called for high-risk minority ethnic groups to be prioritised for Covid immunisations, alongside a targeted publicity campaign amid growing fears over vaccine scepticism.
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This is from Prof Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at Edinburgh University:
Genetic sequencing has shown how close Scotland was to eliminating COVID in the summer until holidays & travel. 'Stringent public health measures can be compromised if following this, movements from regions of high to low prevalence are not minimised.' https://t.co/kEdkzvQkyQ
— Prof. Devi Sridhar (@devisridhar) January 22, 2021
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Northern Ireland hits record weekly Covid related death toll rise
There has been another record weekly rise in Covid-19 related registered deaths since the pandemic began, according to Northern Ireland’s statistics agency.
NISRA confirmed that 153 Covid related deaths were registered last week, bringing its total to 2,129 deaths, the BBC reports.
In contrast, the country’s Department of Health’s toll to last Friday was 1,583.
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For more details on the sorts of political and economic considerations Rishi Sunak is weighing up ahead of the budget, have a read through this analysis by Katy Balls:
The financial misery facing Britain’s pubs has once again been thrown into the spotlight, as Emma McClarkin, the British Beer and Pub Association’s chief executive, urges the government to provide relief in the upcoming budget due to take place on 3 March.
She told Sky News:
We desperately need some very important messages to come out from the government in and around the economy and budget. We need an extension of the business rates (holiday). We need an extension of the VAT discounts and we desperately need a support package to come out to support those brewers through this moment in time. The easiest way to do that and the fastest way to do that is to support that with a duty cut.
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Here are some of the main points from the new ONS research, titled ‘Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain’:
- Compliance with most Covid measures remained high, with the same proportion as last week reporting always or often handwashing after returning home (90%), using a face covering (96%) and avoiding physical contact when outside their home (93%).
- The proportion of working adults that have worked from home was at its highest since June 2020; 45% this week compared with 43% last week.
- Around 1 in 14 (7%) adults reported they had already received at least partial Covid vaccination while just under 9 in 10 (87%) reported they had not yet been offered the vaccine.
Read the full findings here.
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Pressure is mounting on the government to explain why – unlike primaries – nurseries and childminders in England remain open to all children. A recent Observer poll found 61% of people were in favour of shutting nurseries.
This is from Tulip Siddiq, Labour MP for Hampstead and Kilburn:
The Government has refused to explain the scientific basis for keeping nurseries open and excluded the workforce from the mass rollout of home testing kits.
— Tulip Siddiq (@TulipSiddiq) January 22, 2021
As I say here, this incompetence and neglect has made early years staff fear for their safety.https://t.co/mvO7OVGtKf
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University of East Anglia professor of medicine Paul Hunter, who has worked on a model of the effectiveness of the UK immunisation programme, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that “it’s going to be pretty much impossible to get to a level that we have herd immunity, either with a vaccination or with natural infection”.
There is no doubt the vaccination programme … will help us get back to normal”, he said, adding that there would be a continued danger to those who did not get the jab. “We do know that the vaccines are very good at stopping people getting severe illness and dying but we don’t really know how well the vaccines work to stop the spread of infection,” he said.
Hunter’s comments come as Prof Susan Michie, a government adviser of the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours, suggested that only 18% of people with symptoms are self-isolating for the full 10 days as instructed.
Mid-February was the point at which restrictions were originally ear-marked to possibly be eased, but amid such indications of low self-isolation compliance, there are suggestions a lockdown could last until the summer.
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Serving Met officer dies after testing positive for Covid-19
A serving Metropolitan police officer has died after testing positive for Covid-19, the force has announced.
Pc Michael Warren, 37, joined the Met in 2005 and had served as a Territorial Support Group officer for the last four years, PA media reports.
Pc Warren was classed as “vulnerable” and had been shielding at home, working remotely to help his team, the Met said.
He died on Tuesday morning after testing positive for Covid-19 earlier this week, leaving his partner Vicky and his daughter Eden, eight, and son Joseph, five.
A devoted father, husband and police officer has sadly died after testing positive for Covid19.@KarenFindlayMPS "PC Michael Warren was a lovely, genuine and hard-working officer. To lose his life at 37 is heart-breaking"
— Metropolitan Police (@metpoliceuk) January 22, 2021
Our thoughts are with his family and friends
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Universities in England have been told by the government to stop using PCR tests to confirm suspected cases of Covid-19 to “ease the pressure” on testing laboratories.
A letter from Michelle Donelan, the universities minister for England, to vice-chancellors drops requirements for staff and students found to be positive after a lateral flow test to need a PCR test result before self-isolating.
Donelan’s letter states:
All eligible students and staff should have access to two LFD tests per week as part of the programme. The requirement for a confirmatory PCR tests after a positive LFD test will be temporarily removed from next week to help ease the pressure on PCR laboratory capacity and you will be updated when these changes take place.
Only a fraction of staff and students remain on campuses, mainly those taking medical, teacher training or social work courses.
They will be offered twice weekly lateral flow testing until mid-February, according to Donelan.
Good morning everyone. I’ll be leading the blog today. Feel free to drop me a message on Twitter with any coverage suggestions.
Ministers have been responding to the reports first revealed in the Guardian of the government considering paying £500 to everyone in England who tests positive for Covid-19. George Eustice, the environment secretary, was put up for the media rounds this morning, suggesting to Sky News that such proposals were being discussed.
Eustice said:
We do need people, if they are asked to self-isolate because they have been contacted through our Test and Trace, we do need them to self-isolate. And, obviously, we always review the reasons why they might not. On the payment, he added: “No decisions have been made on this. But this is a dynamic, fast-moving situation with the pandemic. We are always keeping multiple policies under review.”
The proposed change, said to be the “preferred position” of the Department of Health and Social Care, is understood to be necessary because government polling indicated that just 17% of people with coronavirus symptoms were coming forward to get a test. However, the proposal has attracted criticism, with sources telling PA media that the plan “incentivises people to catch Covid”. The £500 handout scheme would cost up to £453 million per week – 12 times the cost of the current system.
In another interview, Eustice played down the prospect of a full-blown travel ban being introduced to halt the spread of coronavirus across the UK.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:
The judgement was for now is that the right thing to do was to require pre-travel testing and quarantine for everyone on arrival, and then for them to be able to exit earlier if they do second test at five day interval.
This could help prevent other variants being imported from abroad, which ministers are desperate to avoid as there are concerns it will pose “challenges to the efficacy of the vaccine.”
Here is the agenda for the day:
09:30: Weekly Covid-19 social impacts survey, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
12:00: Weekly UK Covid-19 infection survey, from the ONS.
12:15: Welsh Government coronavirus press conference. First Minister Mark Drakeford will provide an update on the coronavirus situation in Wales.
14:00: West Midlands Combined Authority coronavirus update webinar. The Conservative Mayor of the West Midlands, Andy Street, will host a weekly webinar featuring updates from health officials, and council and policing representatives.
17:00: Boris Johnson to give Downing Street press conference.
To keep up-to-date with Covid coverage from around the world, keep an eye on our global coronavirus live blog:
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