The UK could experience an 'exit wave' of coronavirus infections when lockdown is lifted, experts have warned.
But they claim an increase in cases is unlikely to lead to an uncontrollable spike in hospital admissions or deaths.
Scientists are making the forecast despite the bleak predictions of a SAGE model released last week.
Warwick University researchers, who made the projection, told MailOnline there was 'no doubt infections will rise' when pubs and restaurants reopen as people will start mixing again.
However they say the vaccination programme had 'solved the problem of serious disease'.
They claim in addition the warm summer months will also slow down transmission and prevent huge spikes from affecting the small group of vulnerable people who haven't been vaccinated or for whom the jab didn't work.
The comments came after modelling by Government scientists suggested last week there could be a final peak where more than 1,000 people die a day later in this year despite the vaccination programme progressing well.
The scientists point the finger at the more infectious Kent variant saying it would continue to spread in high numbers when lockdowns are eased and posing a constant threat to the elderly and ill even though vaccines can slash transmission by 60 per cent.
Almost 28.7million Brits which equated to 54% of all adults have had their first dose of the jab since the mass scheme began last December.
But just 2.5million - 5 per cent of people – have had both.
In Israel 52 per cent of the country’s 9.3million people have had their first dose and 40 per cent their second.
The nation has not experienced an exit wave.
The Warwick modelling team, which feeds into the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), now admits its estimates were too pessimistic and underestimated how effective the vaccination programme would be at preventing hospitalisation and death.
The Sage model predicted that deaths could hit 1,000 a day in the summer if restrictions were lifted too quickly and vaccines were not effective as thought.
Non essential retail and pub beer gardens in Britain will open on April 12 and most of the rest of the economy follows on May 17.
On June 21 all restrictions are lifted completely.
Professor Keith Neal, an epidemiologist at Nottingham University, told MailOnline that Warwick's findings were 'so wrong' and it shows 'what's wrong with models in general.'
He said it was inevitable infections will increase when lockdown is lifted but people should 'stop caring about cases and start thinking about people getting ill or dying' which he claims the vaccines had solved.
He added: "We opened up last year and didn't see the same splurge [as is suggested in Warwick's modelling]."
Professor Gabriel Scally, a public health expert at the University of Bristol, said breezy air and warm temperatures in summer were going to give the UK's Covid situation another 'fantastic advantage'.
He said this is because the virus is more difficult to spread outside while hot air reduces the time it can survive after being sneezed or coughed into the environment.
Commenting on how realistic Warwick's forecasts were, he added: "That's inconceivable unless we see the worst possible circumstance, where the virus is able to run free and infect huge numbers of people with moderate risk."
But he warned: "The Government is not helping - we still don't have a good Test and Trace programme and we're still not quarantining arrivals, so there will be the danger of variants."
Dr Sam Moore, who co-authored the Warwick study, has now admitted his team's calculations underestimated the jabs' effect on severe disease.
Latest Public Health England analysis suggested the jab can cut hospital admissions and deaths by more than 90 per cent after two doses, and by 85 and 80 per cent, respectively, after the first dose.
