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Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Ian Hughes

UK coronavirus R rate falls below 1 for first time since July

The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission across the UK is between 0.7 and 0.9, according to the latest Government figures.

Last week, it was between 0.7 and 1.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially, but when it is below 1 it means the epidemic is shrinking.

An R number between 0.7 and 0.9 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between seven and nine other people.

The estimates for R and the growth rate are provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is between minus 5% and minus 2% for the UK as a whole.

It means the number of new infections is shrinking between 2% to 5% every day.

Sage said the estimates are based on the latest data, available up to February 8, including hospital admissions and deaths, as well as symptomatic testing and prevalence studies.

It said the estimates of the R value are below 1 in all NHS regions of England.

But the advisory body warned: “However, prevalence of the virus remains high, so it remains important that everyone continues to stay at home in order to keep the R value down, protect the NHS and help save lives.”

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