The UK's coronavirus reproduction (R) number is between 0.7 and 1.1, and the number of new infections is broadly flat or shrinking by up to 5 per cent every day.
The latest R estimate for England is between 0.7 and 1.0 and remains broadly similar to last week’s figures, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said in its weekly update.
Last week's was between 0.8-1.0.
The reproduction - or R - rate is the average number of people each Covid-positive person goes on to infect.
When the figure is above 1, it means the outbreak is growing exponentially but when it falls below 1, it means the outbreak is shrinking.
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So an R number of 0.7-1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 7 and 11 other people.
Sage said the estimates are based on the latest data, available up to January 25, including hospital admissions and deaths as well as symptomatic testing and prevalence studies.
It warned that cases "continue to be dangerously high and the public must remain vigilant to keep this virus under control, to protect the NHS and save lives".
"It is essential that everyone continues to stay at home, whether they have had the vaccine or not," Sage said.
The estimates for R and the growth rate are provided by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a sub-group of Sage, and published by the Department of Health and Social Care.
The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is between -5 per cent and zero for the UK as a whole.
It means the number of new infections is broadly flat or shrinking by up to 5 per cent every day.
Meanwhile, the Zoe Covid Symptom Study estimated that the UK's R value is 0.9 and the decline in the number of daily cases during lockdowns is starting to slow.
The study's estimated regional values were 0.9 in England, Scotland and Wales, and 0.5 in Northern Ireland.
By region in England, R is thought to have increased to 1 in West Midland, East Midlands and North East despite the third national lockdown, the survey found.
It also suggested the highest risk areas in the UK are Liverpool (1 active case per 68 people), London (1 in 74) and Birmingham and Black Country (1 in 96).
The Zoe survey suggests there are currently, 28,645 daily new symptomatic cases of Covid-19 in the UK on average, down by 22 per cent, or 34,133 infections, a week ago.
Daily cases have fallen by 60 per cent since the peak of 69,000 on January 1, the study said.
The findings are based on data from just over 16,000 swab tests done between January 10-24 and about one million weekly reports from Zoe app users.
Tim Spector, co-founder of the Zoe app and professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, “Cases are still falling which is good news but there are signs that this 60 per cent decrease is running out of steam with some areas already starting to see R values creep back up to 1.0.
"With the number of active cases (prevalence) at 520,000 and falling slowly, the risk of infection remains high and so it's important to continue with social measures to reduce transmission.
"We need to remember there are other early symptoms of the virus such as headache, fatigue and sore throat.
"If more people self-isolated and got tested when experiencing these we’d be able catch people earlier and reduce transmission. People reporting these symptoms in the Zoe app, not just the classic three, will be offered a test.
"Hospital admissions are now easing slightly, which is good news and is in line with our predictions as cases have been falling for the last three weeks.
"With the continued roll out of the vaccine to hospital staff, the older and most vulnerable, we are hopeful that we will start to see a real impact on infection levels and hospital pressure soon.”
Separate data from the Office for National Statistics shows coronavirus infections appear to have levelled off across the UK.
An estimated one in 55 people in private households in England had Covid-19 between January 17 and 23, broadly unchanged on the previous estimates for the period January 10 to 16.
Meanwhile, in Wales, around one in 70 people had Covid-19, also unchanged from the previous estimate.
The figure for Northern Ireland was around one in 50, up slightly from one in 60, while the estimate for Scotland was broadly unchanged, down slightly from around one in 100 people to one in 110.
