Early evening summary
- Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has indicated that more areas of England could be subject to the strictest tier 3 restrictions. In a statement to MPs he said further discussions are planned this week with south Yorkshire, west Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, the north-east and Teesside about moving them into tier 3, the very high alert level. But talks with Greater Manchester about moving it into tier 3 remain deadlocked. (See 5.35pm.) Hancock told MPs the situation was perilous. He said:
Weekly deaths in Europe have increased by 33% and here in the UK deaths have tragically doubled in the last 12 days. The situation remains perilous.
During a long statement many MPs complained to Hancock about the performance of NHS Test and Trace. Sir Bernard Jenkin, the Conservative chair of the liaison committee, told Hancock:
One of the reasons why public confidence is in somewhat decline in the government’s strategy is because we have yet to see the transformation of the leadership of test and trace about which I have discussed with him many times.
- Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, has told a committee of MPs and peers that it is “unlikely” that a coronavirus vaccine will stop the disease completely. Speaking to the joint national security strategy committee, Vallance said:
I think it is unlikely that we will end up with a truly sterilising vaccine that completely stops infection.
It is likely that this disease will circulate and be pandemic. My assessment - and I think that’s the view of many people - is that’s the likely outcome.
Clearly as management becomes better, as you get vaccination that will decrease the chance of infection and the severity of the disease - or whatever the protocols of the vaccines are - this then starts to look more like annual flu than anything else and that may be the direction we end up going in.
-
A temporary national lockdown will be imposed in Wales, the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, has announced. In a report Welsh government advisers say this measure could save almost 1,000 lives by Christmas. (See 5.31pm.
- The UK has recorded 851 deaths over the past week - up 68% on the previous week, the latest daily figures show. (See 4.36pm.)
- Downing Street has said a procedural concession by the EU does not go far enough to justify restarting the UK-EU trade talks. (See 5.43pm.)
- The archbishop of Canterbury has led criticism of the internal market bill in the House of Lords during its second reading debate. Referring to the way the legislation would allow the government to break international law, by ignoring pledges made in the Brexit withdrawal agreement, Justin Welby said:
In the Church of England, we are all too clearly aware of the shame that comes with failing morally. Let’s not make the same mistake at national level. This House exists to amend and improve legislation, not to derail it, and that must be our urgent aim now.
Michael Howard, the former Tory leader and Brexiter, also criticised the bill. He quoted Margaret Thatcher, who said: “Britain does not break treaties. It would be bad for Britain. Bad for relations with the rest of the world and bad for any future treaty on trade.” That said it all, Howard told peers. He went on:
I want the United Kingdom to be an independent and sovereign state. But I want it to be an independent sovereign state that holds its head up high in the world, that keeps its word, that upholds the rule of law, that honours its treaty obligations.
I want it to be an independent sovereign state that is a beacon unto the nations. I do not want it to be an independent sovereign state that chooses, as one of the first assertions of that sovereignty, to break its word, to break the law and to renege on a treaty it signed barely a year ago.
That’s all from me for tonight.
But our coverage continues on our coronavirus live blog. It’s here.
Updated
Former national security adviser ridicules Gove's claim that Brexit will make security cooperation with EU easier
Lord Ricketts, a former national security adviser, has ridiculed a claim from Michael Gove that Brexit will make security cooperation with the EU easier. (See 4.47pm.) Ricketts, a former head of the Foreign Office, was national security adviser between 2010 and 2012.
This really is an extraordinary statement from @michaelgove. He knows perfectly well that without a deal the UK will lose access to EU databases and alerting systems. These are used intensively by UK Police. Alternatives will be MUCH slower. In security cooperation, speed=safety https://t.co/8Vc2csDiET
— Peter Ricketts (@LordRickettsP) October 19, 2020
No 10 says EU still has to accept need to compromise before trade talks can resume
Despite the procedural concession from Michel Barnier (see 4pm), Downing Street says it is not enough for the UK-EU trade talks to formally resume. Following a call between Barnier and his UK counterpart, David Frost, this afternoon, a No 10 spokesperson said:
This was a constructive discussion.
The UK has noted the EU’s proposal to genuinely intensify talks, which is what would be expected at this stage in a negotiation.
However, the UK continues to believe there is no basis to resume talks unless there is a fundamental change of approach from the EU.
This means an EU approach consistent with trying to find an agreement between sovereign equals and with acceptance that movement needs to come from the EU side as well as the UK.
The two teams agreed to remain in close touch.
Matt Hancock is still speaking in the Commons, but while he has been on his feet the government has released a statement to journalists saying that “disappointingly” there has still been no agreement with Greater Manchester leaders. A government spokesperson said:
A meeting between government and local leaders in Greater Manchester has concluded this afternoon following discussions throughout last week, over the weekend and this morning on measures necessary to protect the public. Disappointingly, we have still not been able to reach an agreement. This is particularly concerning against the backdrop of rising cases and hospitalisations in Greater Manchester. We are carefully considering next steps.
Welsh firebreak could save almost 1,000 lives by Christmas, advisers' report suggests
The Welsh government has now published a paper from its technical advisory cell (its version of Sage) showing the modelling that led ministers to introduce the short firebreak lockdown. (Earlier I posted a link to another TAC document - see 1.13pm - but that was not the relevant one.) The correct link is here (pdf).
The report includes this chart suggesting that a two-week firebreak could save almost 1,000 lives by Christmas. But, over the longer terms, fewer lives would be saved, the model suggests, because the death rate would fall more gradually than under the “no change” option. This model assumes that, after the firebreak, the R number returns to its previous level.
The report says, after the firebreak, further measures should be introduced to keep the R number down. It says:
It is recommended that a two-phase approach is used. The first phase is a “fire-break” – a swift and short-term period of simple, extreme restrictions across the whole of Wales that would significantly reduce the prevalence of the virus in Wales. This would ease the pressure on the NHS and offer some time for a reset of behaviours and implementation of new healthcare pathways, health protection approaches or other interventions that require a runup. Doing it over half term would reduce financial and social harms. At least two weeks would be needed ...
The firebreak will have to reduce the national R (latest between 1.1 – 1.4) to below 0.9. This implies that R will need to be reduced in all areas of Wales, which requires a national approach rather than the current locally driven approach through local health protection areas (LPHAs).
The second phase is a new, simpler, national approach to behaviours and restrictions. Simpler messaging and regulations are expected to be easier to understand and comply with. Some existing restrictions may be removed if they are shown to be less effective or more harmful than originally expected, such as the local authority travel boundary restrictions. However, there would need to be sustainable changes in behaviour in many areas of life in order for Rt to remain as near to 1 as possible.
You can read the summary of the latest expert advice that the Technical Advisory Cell have provided to @fmwales and the cabinet on fire breaks here:https://t.co/lV1liC949n#coronavirus #covid19 pic.twitter.com/K4rNeTCUbm
— Welsh Government Health and Social Care (@WGHealthandCare) October 19, 2020
In the Commons Jeremy Hunt, the chair of the health committee, suggests that local leaders should be given responsibility for bringing down the R number locally. But, if they don’t, central government should “take back control”, he says.
Hancock says the government is working with local councils.
But he stresses the need for action in Manchester. He says in Manchester, amongst the over-60s, cases have gone up in the last week from 171 per 100,000 to 283 per 100,000.
Hancock ended his statement by confirming what Boris Johnson said at his press conference on Friday about how rapid-result Covid tests were being distributed and piloted around the country in coming weeks, particularly in tier 3 areas.
Hancock says talks planned with south and west Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, the north-east and Teesside about moving to tier 3
Hancock says talks are continuing this afternoon with Greater Manchester. Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, is in the lead, he says.
And he says further discussions are planned this week with south Yorkshire, west Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, the north-east and Teesside about moving into the strictest tier 3.
Updated
Hancock defends the Covid alert system.
He says it makes sense to have different restrictions in different areas, according to the number of cases.
He confirms that Lancashire has moved into tier 3.
Matt Hancock's Commons statement
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is making a Covid statement to the Commons now.
He says the virus is on the offensive. Deaths have doubled in the last 12 days, he says. The situation is perilous.
Updated
Gove claims Brexit will make security cooperation with EU easier
Here are the quotes from the rather testy exchanges between Theresa May, the former prime minister, and Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, on Brexit in the Commons earlier. May sacked Gove from cabinet when she became PM, although he got a reprieve after the 2017 general election.
May said:
The government appears resigned to the prospect of no deal, yet one area which they should not be resigned to the prospect of no deal is in security.
She said neither Gove nor Boris Johnson had mentioned security in recent statements. She went on:
Will [Gove] confirm that, if the UK walks away with no deal, then our police and law enforcement agencies will no longer have the necessary access to databases, such as PNR (passenger name record), in order to continue to identify and catch criminals and potential terrorists in order to keep us safe?
In reply, Gove said “significant progress” has been made over security cooperation, adding:
But it is the case that the EU are insisting that, before we have access to systems, like the Schengen Information System, we have to accept the jurisdiction of the European court of justice - we cannot accept that.
The second thing I’d say is there are many, many areas in which we can cooperate more effectively to safeguard our borders outside the European Union than we ever could inside, through a variety of methods and arrangements open to us, open to Border Force and open to our security and intelligence services - we can intensify the security that we give to the British people.
The third thing I’d say to [May] is that I agree with her: when it comes to everything, security and other matters, no deal is better than a bad deal.
Updated
These are from my colleague Josh Halliday, with the latest on the talks that Greater Manchester council leaders were holding with the government this afternoon.
Rochdale council leader Allen Brett tells @bbc5live that government meeting was "very strange". It started with everyone thinking they were heading towards an agreement, he said, but with 15 minutes to go "they suddenly seemed to change their position" and left with no deal. 😕
— Josh Halliday (@JoshHalliday) October 19, 2020
Brett says: "At the end the meeting just closed. I've got to say to you I don't know where we are.... I wonder if at 4.30 they're going to announce - I don't want to set alarm bells ringing - that we are in Tier 3 in Greater Manchester."
— Josh Halliday (@JoshHalliday) October 19, 2020
UK records 851 Covid deaths in past week - up 68% on previous week
The UK government has just updated its coronavirus dashboard. Here are the key figures.
- The UK has recorded 18,804 further positive cases. This is the highest figure since Thursday last week (18,980) and the third highest figure on record, excluding a day when the figure was inflated by the addition of past cases. A week ago today the figure was 13,972. It means the recent surge in positive cases has been sustained.
- The UK has recorded 80 further coronavirus deaths. That is well below the daily total on most days last week, when the daily total peaked at 150 on Saturday, but it is above the figure for this time last week (50).
- The UK has recorded 851 deaths over the past week - up 68% on the previous week.
- The number of Covid hospital patients on mechanical ventilation in England has passed 500 for the first time in this phase of the crisis. On Sunday, the last day for which a total is published, there were 503 - the highest number since early June. On Sunday there were also 4,974 coronavirus hospital patients in England, up from the previous day.
- On Friday there were 632 Covid hospital admissions in England. That was down from 792 the previous day and the lowest figure since the previous Sunday.
Updated
In the Commons, responding to a question from the Tory Brexiter Iain Duncan Smith, Gove said he had just heard about the latest statement from the EU. (See 4pm.) He said it was constructive, and he said he welcomed that.
Updated
In the Commons Theresa May, the former prime minister, challenged Michael Gove over security. She said that leaving without a deal would put UK security at risk because it would no longer have access to EU criminal justice databases.
Gove said that in some cases having access to them would require the UK to be bound by the European court of justice. He claimed that the UK would be able to cooperate more effectively with the EU to protect its boundaries as a non-member. And, quoting May’s own slogan back at her, he said he agreed that no deal was better than a bad deal.
Barnier offers concession to UK on trade talks process, saying EU willing to negotiate on basis of legal texts
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has just posted this on Twitter.
🇪🇺🇬🇧 I just spoke to @DavidGHFrost.
— Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) October 19, 2020
As stated by President @vonderleyen on Friday, I confirmed that the EU remains available to intensify talks in London this week, on all subjects, and based on legal texts.
We now wait for the UK’s reaction.
This sounds like a technicality, but agreeing to intensified talks, on the basis of legal text, may be enough of a concession to allow the talks to restart.
On Friday last week No 10 said:
There is only any point in Michel Barnier coming to London next week if he’s prepared to discuss all of the issues on the basis of legal text in an accelerated way without the UK being required to make all of the moves.
The Barnier tweet does not concede the third point - “without the UK being required to make all of the moves” - and No 10 is still angry about the EU summit communique last week saying it was calling on “the UK to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible”. But last week Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said the EU would have to compromise.
Updated
Rachel Reeves, Gove’s shadow, is responding for Labour.
She says the deadline last week for a deal was the third set by the PM - and the third he has missed.
Gove says the PM spoke on Friday about 2021 being a year of renewal.
He says the government is doing that.
On the negotiations, he says the door remains ajar. He hopes the EU will return to talks. But the UK will take back control in January.
Updated
Gove is now speaking about the latest meeting of the joint committee, which has the job of overseeing the implementation of the withdrawal agreement.
He says, in this forum, the EU has been very cooperative.
At its meeting today the UK and the EU agreed to publish a joint statement on citizens’ rights.
“Substantial progress” has been made on implementation, he says.
Updated
Gove is now turning to the preparations for leaving without a deal.
He says he is not blasé about this. But the UK is increasingly well prepared, he says.
Gove says the proposals from the EU presented as compromises do not recognise the UK’s sovereignty.
They want the UK to operate state aid rules essentially the same as the EU’s, with the EU free to retaliate if the UK does not comply.
He says the UK is not asking for any special favours.
With just 10 weeks left, this is not his preferred option, he says. Nor the prime minister’s.
But, having come so far, it is important not to falter now, he says.
Michael Gove is speaking to MPs now.
He says the government had hoped to agree a trade deal with the EU before the end of the year.
But he says, for that to happen, there will have to be a fundamental change from the EU, he says.
He says the EU refused to accelerate negotiation. And they would not discuss legal text.
At the EU summit EU leaders dropped a line from their communique saying the talks would have to be intensified.
And they said all moves would have to come from the UK side - even though some EU leaders said the EU would have to compromise too.
Gove says the UK will have to prepare to trade with the EU from January on WTO terms.
Updated
Michael Gove gives statement to MPs on Brexit
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is about to make a statement to MPs about the UK-EU trade talks.
On Friday Downing Street claimed the talks were over. However, as Daniel Boffey and Peter Walker explain here, they are expected to resume very soon.
Updated
In Northern Ireland another 820 people have tested positive, and a further six people have died, according to the daily update from the Department of Health.
The number of positive cases is down slightly from this time last week (877), but the number of deaths is double what it was last Monday (three).
Workers from the hospitality industry staged a demonstration this morning in Parliament Square in London, outside the House of Commons. They were protesting in particular about the lack of sector-specific support for their industry, and about the 10pm compulsory closing time.
Updated
The number of confirmed cases of Covid at the University of Oxford has more than tripled in a week with almost one in four tests proving positive.
The total number of positive cases in the week ending October 16 was 197, compared with 61 cases during freshers’ week, the week before.
There have now been 288 confirmed Covid cases since the university testing service began on August 20, out of a total of 2433 tests, the university confirmed.
The university says it is now in stage two of its emergency response framework which requires social distancing on site and allows a combination of face-to-face teaching and online learning.
On Saturday students were criticised for failing to observe social distancing rules as they gathered to celebrate matriculation. The formal ceremony was moved online but students were pictured gathering at the Radcliffe Camera.
At least 115 universities in the UK have now had Covid cases, according to UniCovidUk which is tracking infections in higher education.
Public Health Wales has recorded 626 more positive cases and one further death. The details are here.
The daily death toll is the lowest figure for 11 days. And the number of new cases is down considerably from yesterday’s total (950), but still a rise on this time last week (487).
Police in Scotland will be able to get personal data of people with Covid-19 who are identified as part of the government’s test and trace programme, to issue fines and help other investigations.
Despite public assurances of confidentiality, a privacy notice on a leaflet sent out to patients says that their names and mobile numbers could be shared with the police and other unspecified public bodies which “have a legitimate reason to ask for it”.
The privacy notice, disclosed by the Times (paywall), goes on to say: “For example, it would not be shared with Police Scotland to implement fines unless Police Scotland had demonstrated their legal basis to have the data.”
Similar police powers are in force now in England where police and prosecutors can fine Covid-positive people who breach self-isolation rules up to £10,000. The Scottish government has so far not introduced fines for self-isolation non-compliance.
However, fines for breaching large gathering and physical distancing rules have been widely used by police in Scotland, and holiday makers can also be fined for breaching travel quarantine rules.
Prof Stephen Reicher, a behavioural scientist at St Andrews university who advised the UK and Scottish governments, said these rules risked alienating the public and reducing compliance. He told the Times sharing such data was “deeply worrying in terms of civil liberties”.
Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, said at her briefing earlier her government believed fines for non-isolation were “counterproductive” because they could make people feel testing had a criminal justice element to it. They were focusing on building voluntary compliance, she said.
NHS England has recorded 76 further coronavirus hospital deaths. These are people who died after testing positive. There were 25 deaths in the north-east and Yorkshire, 24 in the north-west, 16 in the Midlands, five in the east of England, three in London, two in the south-west and one in the south-east.
There were a further two deaths were the patients did not test positive, but Covid was mentioned on the death certificate.
Seventy-six is more than double the equivalent figure for last Monday (36) and a sevenfold increase on the figure for two weeks ago (10).
The details are here.
Updated
Pupils in England sitting GCSE and A-level retakes this autumn will enjoy the same “generosity” in the awarding of grades as the summer cohort, the exams regulator Ofqual has confirmed.
Following the cancellation of summer exams as a result of the pandemic, students who were unhappy with their results – and private candidates who were not issued with a grade – were given the opportunity to sit back-up exams.
According to Ofqual, there are 20,000 A-level entries for this autumn’s resits (compared with 700,000 during the summer) which are currently under way, with GCSE resits to follow next month.
This summer saw a significant hike in results after the government was forced to scrap its flawed algorithm and pupils were given school-assessed grades.
In a new blog, Ofqual said it was “working with exam boards to carry forward the generosity from summer 2020 grades”.
Ordinarily, exam boards adjust grade boundaries to ensure consistency in the distribution of results year on year. The autumn results will however be aligned with the summer results to ensure fairness, Ofqual said.
The regulator said it would publish further details about next year’s exams later in the year.
Updated
No 10 claims intensive care capacity in Greater Manchester less than month away from being completely overwhelmed
Downing Street has claimed that intensive care capacity in Greater Manchester is less than four weeks away from being completely overwhelmed.
The prime minister’s spokesman released figures supporting the claim at the daily lobby briefing to back up government claims that tighter restrictions in the region are urgently needed. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, said this morning that he would not easily be “pressurised” into agreeing them. (See 9.43am.)
The spokesman told journalists:
Cases in Greater Manchester continue to rise. In the over-60 age group, cases have tripled in the most recent 15 days of full data - there were 89 cases per 100,000 on September 27 compared to 282 per 100,000 on October 12.
Hospital admissions in Greater Manchester are doubling every nine days.
Currently the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care is around 40% of that seen at the peak of the first wave. But, assuming a 14-day doubling time - the “best case” according to the SPI-M modelling group - all free intensive care capacity would be used by 28 October (the middle of next week), according to No 10, and would pass the peak of the first wave by 2 November (a fortnight today).
The projections suggest Covid patients would take up the entire current intensive care capacity by 8 November (within three weeks) and the entire surge capacity by 12 November.
Asked if that meant hospitals being overwhelmed, the spokesman said: “Yes, that’s the entire surge ICU capacity.”
The spokesman confirmed that talks with Burnham and other local leaders were continuing. “If at all possible, we do want to engage constructively with Greater Manchester and agree on a way forward,” the spokesman said.
But if agreement cannot be reached, the government will need to intervene “in order to protect hospitals and save the lives of residents”, he added.
From my colleague Josh Halliday
Tier 3 latest: understand Greater Manchester leaders are meeting with the government at 3pm. There's a pre-meeting with GM leaders at 2pm. The wheels on a deal are turning, albeit slowly by the sounds of it.
— Josh Halliday (@JoshHalliday) October 19, 2020
Commenting on the ONS figures showing that there have been 25,000 excess deaths registered in private homes in England this year (see 12.14pm), Sir David Spiegelhalter, chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that most of these deaths were ones that in normal circumstances would have occurred in hospital. He said:
Non-Covid deaths in hospital have correspondingly declined, suggesting most of these deaths would normally have occurred in hospital, and people have either been reluctant to go, discouraged from attending, or the services have been disrupted.
He added that it is “unclear how many of these lives could have been extended had they gone to hospital”.
Updated
Adam Price, the Plaid Cymru leader, has said the Welsh government needs to use its two-week firebreak to make its test and trace system more effective. In a statement he said:
A fire break is a last resort and should only be used in an emergency. We are now in an emergency.
The time the firebreak buys us must be used to build up a resilient test, trace and isolate system in Wales which means we can prevent being in the position we’re currently in where the case numbers have risen to the point where they can overwhelm an already exhausted NHS.
We also need to ensure the safeguarding of workplaces, and that sufficient financial support is available for businesses and their employees who will be directly impacted by this firebreak.
Updated
From my colleague Maya Wolfe-Robinson
You can’t say hospitality businesses in Greater Manchester aren’t responding and adapting to the circumstances... pic.twitter.com/dzuh5qDszP
— Maya Wolfe-Robinson (@mwolferobinson) October 19, 2020
Covid rates starting to fall in some of England's big cities, latest figures suggest
Covid-19 case rates have started to fall in some of England’s biggest cities, with the sharpest increases now happening in towns and more suburban areas, latest figures suggest.
As PA Media reports, Nottingham, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle are among the cities where the weekly rate of new Covid-19 cases rose rapidly at the end of September, coinciding with the start of the new university term, but where levels are now coming down.
The rates have been decreasing for several days, suggesting they are on a downward trend rather than a temporary dip.
In Nottingham the rolling weekly rate of cases peaked at 1,001.2 per 100,000 people for the seven days to 8 October - the highest for any local authority area in England - but since then the number has been falling, and it currently stands at 787.6.
Manchester’s current rate is 432.5, after peaking at 583.5 (in the seven days to 3 October); Sheffield’s rate is 396.7, down from 500.3 (the seven days to 7 October) while Newcastle stands at 371.5, down from 553.8 (the seven days to 7 October).
All current rates are for the seven days to 14 October.
Updated
And here is the Welsh government’s news release with its summary of its firebreak lockdown plans, including the support being made available to business.
The Welsh government has published a report (pdf) from its “technical advisory cell” (its version of Sage) that has helped to inform the decision announced by Mark Drakeford today.
Here’s an excerpt.
The main recommendation of this report is to try to protect our most deprived population from the direct effects of Covid-19 in a potential second wave, and from the indirect effects of Covid-19 on the economy which will increase health inequalities in the longer term. We will know we have succeeded in this if the gradient in Covid-19 mortality is less steep in future than in the first peak and if we see a reduction in the gradient in all-cause mortality in 2022, given that it is unlikely that inequalities will reduce in the next two years.
Drakeford says professional sport will be allowed to continue during the firebreak lockdown. That counts as work, he says.
Asked what regional restrictions will still be in place once the nationwide firebreak has ended, Drakeford says discussions on that are still continuing.
Drakeford says the rules restricting cross-border travel will be even stricter during the two-week period of the firebreak.
Drakeford says the aim of the firebreak is to get Wales through until Christmas without the need for further lockdowns.
Beyond that, he cannot say what will or will not be needed, he says.
Back in the press conference Drakeford says it is important for people to understand that the test for the firebreak is not whether numbers are falling by the end of it. They are not likely to start falling until afterwards, he says.
He does not specify what “numbers” he is referring to - cases, hospitalisations or deaths? - although he does say that, because of the time lag between infection and death (at least three weeks, generally), deaths will probably still be rising at the end of the fortnight.
Welsh Tories claim firebreak likely to be followed by 'regular lockdowns'
Responding to the Welsh government’s announcement, the Tory leader in Wales, Paul Davies, said:
Sadly, the first minster has failed to get public support for this second Wales-wide lockdown, failing to be open and transparent about the evidence to justify this lockdown and what his actions will entail for the future.
The Welsh government also has to be honest that this road they are taking us down is committing Wales to rolling Wales-wide lockdowns. This is not a two-week break to solve the pandemic, it is likely that we will see regular lockdowns across the rest of the year. The Welsh government must be clear what actions they are taking during the lockdown to prevent further Wales-wide lockdowns which will have a significant impact on people’s lives and livelihoods.
However, the main concern is that this national lockdown is not proportionate. The impact on businesses in areas such as Powys, Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion, who have the lowest rate of Covid-19 cases in Wales, will be severe at a time when they are desperately struggling to recover from the pandemic so far this year.
Updated
Drakeford says the firebreak will never work if people keep asking why there isn’t an exception for this or that.
The government has the minimum number of exceptions, he says.
Welsh government publishes Q&A with details of its firebreak lockdown
Here is the Q&A from the Welsh government explaining in detail how its firebreak lockdown will work.
Drakeford says he is disappointed that details of the plans were leaked. (See 10.50am.)
He says the package was only finalised at 11.30 this morning.
But he says he wanted to consult people who would be affected by this.
He says he would rather take the risk of details leaking than not consult.
Back in Cardiff Drakeford is still taking questions.
He says it would not help business not getting the virus under control.
The Scottish government has changed the way it measures Covid-19 cases by publishing daily test results for all tests carried out, including results from people who have had multiple tests in the proceeding day.
Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, said the new approach meant health officials and ministers would have a better and more realistic grasp of how quickly coronavirus was spreading, and where.
Until today, Sturgeon has announced each day the percentage of positive results only from people tested for the first time, but from now would include results from people such as care home workers who are being repeatedly tested. That methodology was closer to the approach recommended by the World Health Organization, she said.
She said 993 people tested positive yesterday. Under the old methodology, the latest daily result showed 17.1% of those tested for the first time were positive but counting every single test, only 6.4% of people were positive.
Sturgeon disclosed the number of people in hospital had increased again over the last 24 hours, up by 40 to 754 patients, while the number in intensive care had fallen by one to 61. One person was recorded to have died, she added.
Updated
Drakeford says people can leave home to exercise.
But that exercise must start and end at home.
He says people will not be limited to one act of exercise per day, as during the first lockdown.
Drakeford says the Welsh lockdown will not succeed if it has to rely on the police.
It will only work if people ask themselves if they are doing what they need to do to make this a success.
He says people need to cut down their contacts with others to a bare minimum, to make the firebreak a success.
Drakeford says Sir Keir Starmer is backing a two-week firebreak for the UK because that is what Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, is recommending.
He says the Welsh government’s scientific advisers are also recommending this.
Here is my colleague Steven Morris’s story about the Welsh government’s announcement.
Drakeford this has to be a national effort.
Everyone in every part of Wales has to make a contribution, he says.
Q: What has to be put in place during those two weeks?
Drakeford says the Welsh government will use the time “purposefully”.
It will beef up the test, trace, protect system.
It will roll out more field hospitals.
And it will review penalties that have been imposed, to ensure they are being used proportionately.
Updated
Drakeford says bonfire night celebrations will not be allowed.
But remembrance day events will be allowed, he says. He says they are more important than ever.
Drakeford's Q&A
Drakeford is now taking questions.
Q: Will the lockdown definitely end on 9 November?
Drakeford says it will end then. It will be a fixed period.
But he says the benefit will not be seen by then. It will take longer.
The impact will only be seen later, he says.
- Drakeford says lockdown will end before its benefits become apparent - because it will take longer than two weeks for its full impact to take effect.
Drakeford says this will not be easy.
But if we act together, we can succeed, he says.
He thanks people for their support.
Drakeford turns to the support for business.
He says there will be an economic resilience fund worth almost £300m.
Every business covered by small business rate relief will get £1,000, he says.
Retail, leisure and hospitality places that have to close will get a one-off payment of up to £5,000, he says.
There will also be extra discretionary grants, he says.
Drakeford says there must be no gatherings with people from other households outside or inside.
The only exceptions are for adults living alone and single parents, who will be able to see someone for support.
Drakeford says primary schools will re-open after half-term.
But secondary schools will only re-open for pupils in years seven and eight, and for pupils doing exams.
Otherwise pupils will have to spend the week learning from home.
Students will have to stay at home too, he says.
Drakeford gives details of rules applying during short 'firebreak' lockdown
Drakeford says from Friday everyone will have to stay at home - unless their work is essential.
Retail will have to close unless it is essential, he says.
And he says places of worship will close, apart from for weddings and funeral.
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Drakeford says Wales will have two-week 'fire break' - to avoid need for open-ended lockdown later
Mark Drakeford starts by saying he explained the serious situation faced in Wales on Friday.
Ministers have held discussions over the weekend, he says.
He says there are “no easy choices”.
If the government does nothing, “there is a very real risk” of the NHS being overwhelmed.
Unless we act, the NHS will not be able to look after the increasing number of people falling seriously ill, even with the extra 5,000 beds that we have.
If the government does not act now, the alternative would be “an open-ended lockdown” later, he says.
He says minister will introduced a two-week “firebreak” starting on Friday.
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Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford holds briefing
Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister is about to start his briefing.
There is a live feed at the top of the page.
England has seen 25,000 excess deaths in private homes this year, mostly not involving Covid, says ONS
According to a report from the Office for National Statistics this morning, there have been 25,000 excess deaths registered in private homes in England this year. Excess deaths are deaths above the five-year average.
Most of these did not involve Covid, it says.
The report says:
In England, the number of deaths in private homes registered between 28 December 2019 and 11 September 2020 was 108,842; this was 25,472 deaths more than the five-year average for the same period.
In Wales, the number of deaths in private homes registered between 28 December 2019 and 11 September 2020 was 7,440; this was 1,624 deaths more than the five-year average for the same period.
Sarah Caul, head of mortality analysis at the ONS, said:
While deaths in hospitals and care homes have dropped below the five-year average since the initial peak of the coronavirus pandemic, we’ve consistently seen deaths in private homes remain well above the five-year average.
We have seen an overall increase of deaths as well as a redistribution of various causes of death. For instance, while deaths of heart disease are below average in hospital, it has been above average at home. It’s a similar picture when looking at prostate cancer for males and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease for females. Unlike the high numbers of deaths involving Covid-19 in hospitals and care homes, the majority of deaths in private homes are unrelated to Covid-19.
UPDATE: Commenting on the ONS figures showing that there have been 25,000 excess deaths registered in private homes in England this year (see 12.14pm), Sir David Spiegelhalter, chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that most of these deaths were deaths that in normal circumstances would have occurred in hospital. See 1.46pm.
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There will be two statements in the Commons this afternoon.
At 3.30pm Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, will deliver a statement about Brexit.
And at around 4.30pm Matt Hancock, the health secretary, will deliver a statement about coronavirus.
Here is the response from Ed Miliband, the shadow business secretary, to Alok Sharma saying whether or not Brexit is called “no-deal” is a matter of semantics. (See 11.38am.) Miliband said:
A ‘no-deal’ might just be semantics for Alok Sharma, but it’s not semantics for the manufacturers, farmers and many businesses across the country who have been clear that it could have serious economic consequences for them.
The government is trying to pull the wool over people’s eyes to pretend no-deal doesn’t mean no-deal. The business secretary should be listening to businesses and pulling out all the stops to deliver the deal ministers promised was oven ready, not dismissing their concerns.
UK ministers accused over impact of Covid on minorities and disabled people
The UK government has broken the law by failing to tackle the disproportionate impact of coronavirus on ethnic minorities and disabled people, Labour has claimed in a letter to the equality watchdog. My colleague Haroon Siddique has the story here.
Shapps says Covid tests week after arrival in UK could release people from quarantine early
Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has said the government is looking at a “test and release” regime that would cut the amount of time people arriving in the UK have to self-isolate for if they are subject to quarantine.
Speaking at the Airlines 2050 summit, Shapps said:
My ministerial colleagues and I have agreed a regime, based on a single test provided by the private sector and at the cost to the passenger, after a period of self-isolation and doing those things could achieve our objectives.
The next step is to develop how this approach can be implemented.”
It will mean a single test for international arrivals, a week after arrival.
Currently people subject to quarantine have to self-isolate for 14 days.
Earlier Sean Doyle, the new boss of British Airways, told the conference that Covid tests before departure should replace the current quarantine rules. He said:
We believe the best way to reassure people is to introduce a reliable and affordable test before flying.
For the UK, this approach reduces the stress on the NHS testing systems within the UK and on policing the quarantine system.
If we look abroad to our near neighbours, we see that business travel and indeed tourism is being prioritised by some countries.
We need to get the economy moving again and this just isn’t possible when you’re asking people to quarantine for 14 days.
It’s our view that even if that quarantine period is reduced to seven days, people won’t travel here and the UK will get left behind.
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Business secretary claims whether or not Brexit is 'no-deal' is 'question of semantics'
Among the many areas where Brexit is wreaking havoc is with the English language. Words are meant to have a clear meaning. With Brexit, it’s not always so.
There was a good example this morning on LBC where Alok Sharma, the business secretary, argued that a no-deal Brexit - which is normally now taken as meaning a Brexit involving a trade deal with the EU - is in fact a Brexit with a deal, but just a different sort of deal.
Sharma made the argument often made by ministers that the UK does, in fact, have a deal, because it signed the withdrawal agreement deal.
But then he went further. When the presenter, Nick Ferrari, put it to him that the Australia-style deal that the PM now talks about is just another way of referring to no-deal, Sharma replied:
The Australia deal is a deal that you have with countries where you are predominantly working on a sort of WTO basis.
The exchange went on:
NF: So it’s a no-deal?
AS: Depends. You can use the phrase no deal but the point is it is a deal …
Ferrari asked Sharma twice more to explain the difference between the Australia arrangement and no-deal, before Sharma eventually said:
It’s a question of semantics at the end of the day, sure.
Sharma was speaking only a day after Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, gave another example of Brexit linguistic elasticity in an interview with Andrew Marr yesterday (which I see has been getting a lot of comment BTL.)
As the transcript (pdf) shows, Gove was asked if he was embarrassed to watch the clip of him giving a speech during the Brexit campaign saying: “The day after we vote to leave we hold all the cards.” No, said Gove. He said that “we hold cards and we do and it is the case that we take control of our destiny”.
When Gove said in 2016 that the UK would hold all the cards after leaving the EU, that was widely interpreted as meaning the UK would hold all the good cards (the usual interpretation of the phrase). Now he is saying he just meant the UK would hold its own cards (which might be the worst in the pack).
“are you embarrassed seeing that back?” @MarrShow plays some of Michael Gove’s greatest hits back to the man himself pic.twitter.com/hzddDe6KJS
— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) October 18, 2020
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Labour MP Yasmin Qureshi in hospital after testing positive for Covid
Yasmin Qureshi, the Labour MP for Bolton South East and a shadow international development minister, has released a statement saying she is in hospital being treated for pneumonia after testing positive for Covid. She is 57.
— Yasmin Qureshi MP (@YasminQureshiMP) October 19, 2020
Details in leaked letter suggest Wales's proposed 17-day lockdown to be tougher than Scotland's
According to a leaked letter from the Welsh director of the Confederation of Passenger Transport, the Welsh government is considering a 17-day national lockdown starting at 6pm on Friday.
In terms of timing, that would be similar to the semi-lockdown announced by Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland. That also spanned three weekends, coinciding with half-term. The Northern Ireland version is longer, lasting four weeks.
But, if the leaked document is correct, the Welsh lockdown would go further than the other two in other respects. In Scotland there is only a full closure of pubs and restaurants in the central belt. In Northern Ireland they are all closed, apart from for takeaways. Northern Ireland has also closed shops performing close-contact services, like hairdressing. But the leaked letter suggests that in Wales all but essential retail will be forced to close.
In Scotland schools have not been affected. In Northern Ireland they have closed for an extra week over half-term. According to the leaked letter, in Wales primary schools will go back as normal after half term, but secondary schools could be given an extended break.
The letter also says that in Wales people will be told to use public transport for essential travel only during the short lockdown.
Asked about the leak at the weekend, the Welsh government said final decisions had not yet been taken.
The leak was published by the Bubble.Wales blog.
🚨EXCLUSIVE🚨
— Bubble.Wales (@bubblewales) October 17, 2020
Leaked letter from Wales Director of the Confederation of Passenger Transport John Pocket reveals that a ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown will commence in Wales on 1800 Friday 23rd October and end Monday 9th November. pic.twitter.com/9rEJe2zvTc
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Manchester council leader calls for £14m per month shielding programme for most vulnerable as alternative to tier 3
Sir Richard Leese, the leader of Manchester city council, has said the government should spend £14m a month on a shielding programme for people in Greater Manchester most at risk, as an alternative to putting the region into tier 3. He explains why in a blog published this morning.
Here’s an extract.
Most people who test positive for the virus are not getting particularly ill. They are not the problem. Too many are now getting ill and the number of hospital cases is going up, as is the number of people with Covid in intensive care. That’s the problem. I’ve spent a fair chunk of time over the last week talking to hospital staff about exactly what is going on. The good news is that they expect that now with improved treatment, they don’t expect to see anything like the death rate we had back in April and May. The bad news is that if cases continue to rise, they will have to again start cancelling other patients treatments.
They do though know who in the population is, if they catch the virus, most at risk of hospitalisation - older people and people with existing underlying conditions, diabetes, obesity, high-blood pressure, other respiratory illnesses. If this is the evidence, wouldn’t it be much better to have an effective shielding programme for those most at risk, rather than have a blanket business closure policy of dubious efficacy. Greater Manchester have estimated the cost of a shielding programme at around £14m a month, less than a fifth of the estimated cost of business closures. Sadly, government, having forced through badly thought regulations, seem unwilling to think again.
From Matt Hancock, the health secretary
We’re opening 14 new plasma donation centres across the country.
— Matt Hancock (@MattHancock) October 19, 2020
If you’ve had #coronavirus, please donate your blood, & help save lives.https://t.co/DBp1F0GQES
These are from Prof Stephen Reicher, professor of social psychology at the University of St Andrews and an adviser to the Scottish and UK governments on coronavirus.
The COVID 'tier system' is a good idea so badly mishandled that it is now worse than useless.
— Stephen Reicher (@ReicherStephen) October 19, 2020
The idea was to have different levels of restrictions with objective criteria for applying them. This would bring clarity, equity and hence local buy-in.
But what actually happened... pic.twitter.com/EROWK9aS0P
First, the criteria for which area is in which tier has become morre a matter of political bargaining that case levels. Additionally the actual restrictions in the same tier vary between areas. So, rather than bringing clarity, things are more confused than ever. pic.twitter.com/tUY8Pfrin6
— Stephen Reicher (@ReicherStephen) October 19, 2020
Second, because it is unclear why some places are in the highest tiers, plus the fact that support for those whose businesses and jobs are affected is lower than under the March restrictions, the new measures have actually heightened rather than reduced the sense of undairness. pic.twitter.com/IE4o1EzMeB
— Stephen Reicher (@ReicherStephen) October 19, 2020
Burnham signals Greater Manchester still resisting tier 3, saying he won't 'just roll over at sight of cheque'
This morning Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, was talking up the prospects of a deal with Greater Manchester about going into the the stricter tier 3 Covid restrictions regime (see 9.07am), but Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has told Sky News morning that he won’t just “roll over” at the offer of money. He said:
I spoke to [the government] yesterday and I’ve made it clear that we’re willing to talk and want to resolve this. But I do very much look to parliament to intervene as well. I’ve written to the main leaders in Westminster, all of them, including the prime minister.
Tier 3 is a serious thing, it’s a serious development if we are to ask people to go into, just before winter, just before Christmas, closing a large number of places of work. People can’t just be pressurised into it.
And I’m not going to be pressurised into it. I’m not just going to roll over at the sight of a cheque. This is about properly supporting those people whose lives will be damaged by tier 3.
The Daily Telegraph this morning claims the government is willing to offer Greater Manchester “up to £100m” if it goes into tier 3. Other papers are saying tens of millions. On the Today programme this morning Nick Robinson, the presenter, said the BBC understood the figure was about £75m - assuming that Greater Manchester gets about the same, per head of population, as Liverpool city region and Lancashire.
Jenrick refused to confirm the figure, but he did not deny that money was on offer, comprising support for local authorities, support for local businesses, funding for localised contact tracing and other forms of support, including the possible intervention of the armed forces if a suitable role for them could be found.
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This is from Plaid Cymru on the Welsh government’s plans for a short “fire break” national lockdown.
A failure of policy has led to an urgent need for a ‘fire break’, a limited period of buying time to address the weaknesses of the test, trace and isolate system.
— Plaid Cymru (@Plaid_Cymru) October 19, 2020
No one wants to live in a perpetual state of lockdowns.
This break has to be the start of a different approach. pic.twitter.com/rKufDDtUkM
It is worth pointing out that, welcome or otherwise, repeat lockdowns would not be unique to Wales. Scotland announced something very similar the week before last, and Northern Ireland announced one last week. And at the very start of the epidemic in March, UK government scientists predicted this might become the norm. This is from a paper drawn up by SPI-M-O, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (an offshoot of Sage) on 16 March, the day Boris Johnson announced the soft lockdown. SPI-M-O said:
It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity. These would need to be in place for at least most of a year. Under such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures.
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Wales to decide on short 'fire break' lockdown as Manchester stand-off continues
Good morning. In politics it’s never a good idea to be fighting too many battles at the same time and No 10 starts the week with its stand-offs with Brussels, over the UK-EU trade deal, and with Greater Manchester, over the proposal to subject it to the stricter tier 3 local coronavirus restrictions, still unresolved. But there might be an agreement on Greater Manchester soon. Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, told the BBC this morning:
I do think it is very clear that having now discussed this for well over a week this does now need to be brought to a conclusion.I think everybody in Greater Manchester would agree with that. So, I am hopeful that either today, or tomorrow, we will reach a conclusion, one way or the other.
There are almost 3 million people who live in Greater Manchester. But there are more than 3 million people who live in Wales, and today it is possible that they will be told they are going to face restrictions even tougher than the ones that apply to regions placed in tier 3 under the English system. The Welsh government has been mulling over the need for a “fire break” lockdown - a short, hard national lockdown, like the “circuit breaker” recommended for England by Sage and the Labour party - and this morning the Welsh cabinet will meet to take a final decision.
Last night the Welsh government issued this statement.
The measures we have put in place at both a local and a national level, with help from the people of Wales, have kept the spread of Covid-19 under check.
However, there is a growing consensus we now need to introduce a different set of measures and actions to respond to the virus as it continues to spread across Wales more quickly during the autumn and winter months ahead.
Ministers have held a number of meetings over the weekend with senior Welsh government officials, scientists and public health experts to consider their advice on a potential need for a ‘fire break’ set of measures to control the virus.
The Welsh cabinet met this evening to consider that advice. The cabinet will meet again tomorrow morning to make a final decision. The first minister will update the people of Wales on any decisions taken tomorrow.
Here is the agenda for the news.
9.30am: The ONS publishes figures on deaths in private homes in England and Wales.
12pm: Downing Street is due to hold its lobby briefing.
12.15pm: Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, is due to hold a coronavirus briefing.
12.15pm: Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, is due to hold a coronavirus briefing.
After 1.30pm: Peers begin the first day of the second reading debate on the internal market bill.
4pm: Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, gives evidence to joint national security strategy committee.
Also today Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, and Maroš Šefčovič, the European commission vice-president, will convene a meeting of the joint committee overseeing the implementation of the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
And David Frost, the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, is expected to hold a call with Michael Barnier, his EU counterpart, about the trade talks supposedly called off by No 10 on Friday.
Politics Live has been doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog for some time and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, like Brexit, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
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