Afternoon summary
- The UK has recorded 19,724 new coronavirus cases - a new daily record and an increase of almost 2,500 (or 14%) on the figure for yesterday. (See 4.27pm.)
- Talks have been taking place about including more areas in the north of England and the Midlands in the very high alert tier 3, which would see them being subject to the strictest restrictions. But no decisions have yet been taken, according to the BBC’s Matt Cole.
I understand the JBC Gold Committee is still ongoing. Much of the North of England and the Midlands are being considered for "Very High" Tier 3 Level but no decisions have been made - including on Grtr Mancs and Lancs. I've been told there is “lots more to be discussed."
— Matt Cole (@BBCMattCole) October 14, 2020
That’s all from me for today. But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.
Updated
England, Wales and Scotland among worst countries for excess deaths during pandemic, report says
An international study led by academics from Imperial College London has concluded that, out of 21 industrialised countries, England, Wales and Scotland had among the highest rates of excess deaths between February and May, during the first wave of the pandemic.
The study looked at excess deaths from all causes, not just deaths attributed to coronavirus. This measure is seen by experts as the best way of assessing the overall impact of a pandemic because it includes caused by the virus, but not attributed to it, and deaths caused by it indirectly.
This is what the the Imperial College summary says about how all countries performed:
The research team were able to use their findings to group the countries in the study into four categories, depending on each country’s overall death toll during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The first group were those that avoided a detectable rise in deaths, and included Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland.
The second and third groups of countries experienced a low to medium impact of the pandemic. The low impact group included Austria, Switzerland and Portugal, while the medium impact group included France, the Netherlands and Sweden. The fourth group, which experienced the highest number of deaths from any disease during the study period, consisted of Belgium, Italy, Scotland, Spain and England and Wales.
And this is what it says about why England and Wales did particularly badly.
England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest impact: around 100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% relative increase in deaths in England and Wales, and 38% relative increase in deaths in Spain.
This data suggests a number of lessons, say the team, some of which may help avoid future waves of the pandemic from becoming as fatal as the first. For example, compared to countries such as New Zealand and Denmark, the UK, Spain, Italy and France introduced a lockdown after the pandemic was further along in the community.
England and Wales, together with Sweden (the only country that did not put in place a mandatory lockdown and only used voluntary social distancing measures), had the longest durations of excess mortality.
The latest coronavirus death figures for England were in a post at 2.07pm.
Scotland has recorded 1,429 cases and 15 further deaths. The details are here. The new case numbers are up 10% on yesterday’s total (1,297).
In Wales there have been 946 more cases (up 24% from yesterday’s total - 764) and 10 further deaths (double yesterday’s total of five). The details are here.
There have been 1,217 new Covid-19 cases in Northern Ireland, the largest daily figure recorded in the region. And further four deaths have been reported. The details are here.
EU deal still possible, PM to be told, as potential fisheries plan emerges
Boris Johnson will be advised by his chief negotiator that a trade deal with the EU is still possible should the prime minister ditch his deadline and continue to negotiate with Brussels as tentative signs of a compromise on fisheries emerged, my colleague Daniel Boffey reports.
The Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price, has welcomed the Welsh government’s decision to impose a ban on visitors from high-Covid areas of England. In a statement he said:
This announcement is long overdue and I’m pleased to see the Welsh government finally taking this necessary course of action to protect the people of Wales.
We now need a clear timetable for exactly when the draft legislation will be ready to publish, the proposed timescales and plans for implementation and how this is to be communicated across the UK. With half term arriving for much of England next week, timing is now critical.
Let this be a lesson to Welsh government. Continued correspondence with Downing Street will not get us the answers we want. We should have learnt our lessons from the first wave: depending on Westminster does not work for Wales.
His tweet summed it up.
At last! O’r diwedd! pic.twitter.com/Vs7l9aTxeJ
— Adam Price (@Adamprice) October 14, 2020
Updated
Manchester and Liverpool metro mayors threaten legal action over 'discriminatory' furlough scheme
Two of England’s metro mayors are considering legal action against the government’s “discriminatory” furlough scheme amid a deepening stand-off with ministers over the three-tier approach to lockdowns.
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, said imposing tier 3 restrictions – closing pubs and other public venues – was “surrendering people to certain hardship” without significant financial support.
Steve Rotheram, mayor of the Liverpool city region, indicated that he and Burnham would launch a legal challenge to the Treasury’s “discriminatory” new furlough scheme that will pay two-thirds of a workers’ wages compared with 80% during the national lockdown. He said:
For me it appears to be discriminatory that the government are saying we gave people 80% in March but because its happening in the Liverpool city region you’re only going to get two-thirds of your wage.
Burnham said he “will not accept” the imposition of tier 3 restrictions but that he would not urge people to break the law if it was imposed. He said legal action would aim to protect workers in the event that further support was not forthcoming: He added:
That’s not an idle threat - will do anything to protect our residents facing hardship, particularly in the run-up to Christmas.
The 10 leaders of Greater Manchester’s local authorities – including the Conservative leader of Bolton council – said earlier they would not accept further restrictions on the region without additional support. (See 11.35am.)
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is expected to discuss moving the region to tier 3 – meaning the closure of pubs and other public venues – at a meeting with the government’s chief medical officers tomorrow.
However, it is not clear whether a decision will be made at this meeting. Burnham is due to hold a meeting with Jonathan Van Tam, England’s deputy chief medical officer, later today in which he will resist any attempt to impose further restrictions.
Updated
UK records almost 20,000 new coronavirus cases - up 14% from yesterday
The UK government has just updated its coronavirus dashboard. Here are the key figures.
- The UK has recorded 19,724 new coronavirus cases. That is the highest daily figure on record (excluding a day when the total was artificially inflated by previous tests) and a rise of almost 2,500 (or 14%) on the total for yesterday (17,234).
- The UK has recorded 137 new deaths. This is only just below the figure for yesterday (143) which was the highest daily figure since early June. This takes the total number of people who have died within 28 days of a positive test to 43,155. But the dashboard says there have been at least 57,690 deaths where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.
- There are now more than 4,000 coronavirus patients in hospital in England. Today’s total is 4,146, up from 3,905 yesterday. On Monday, the last day for which specific admissions figures are on the dashboard, there were 647 coronavirus admissions to hospital in England, up from 628 the previous day.
- There are now 468 hospital patients in England on mechanical ventilation, up from 441 yesterday.
Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, is at pains to stress that there is nothing anti-English in his stance. But at first minister’s questions on Tuesday, Mark Reckless, the Brexit party leader, taunted Drakeford – whose government is a firm supporter of the union – by arguing Wales was “sleepwalking towards independence”
Meanwhile, at her briefing on Wednesday, the Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, backed her Welsh counterpart and said she would write to Boris Johnson on the issue to seek “urgent talks”.
Sturgeon drew attention to the Lancashire resort of Blackpool, revealing at her daily briefing that 94 people in the last week alone have tested positive having visited the seaside town. She urged Scots not to visit the resort. See 12.42pm.
Updated
How Wales might enforce ban on visitors from high-Covid areas of England
Police forces across Wales have begun to work out how to enforce a ban. There is no suggestion that checkpoints or roadblocks at the 160-mile border will be brought in. Even if the Welsh government did want this – and it doesn’t – there are simply too many ways in and out to make this practical.
Dafydd Llywelyn, the police and crime commissioner for Dyfed-Powys, said it would not be possible to completely close the border. But other tactics are available, including setting up road checks within Wales and following up tips from members of the public.
He gave an example of the current inconsistencies. Dyfed-Powys officers recently issued fixed penalty notices to three men who had driven out of Caerphilly for a day out. But the police had not been able to stop a coachload of people from a hotspot area in the north of England visiting Tenby in Pembrokeshire, an area of low Covid incidence.
Llywelyn said: “The police are ready to protect our local communities.” He said that the first minister should have acted sooner – and accused the prime minister of putting wealth before health.
Arfon Jones, the north Wales commissioner, accused Johnson of behaving “irresponsibly”. He said:
I can’t see us lining the border with patrol cars because none of the police forces in Wales have the resources to do that. But we will do our best, along with our partners in local authorities and health to enforce the regulations.
Updated
The Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford has defended his plan to ban visitors from high-Covid areas of England (see 3.21pm and 3.30pm) by saying that people were “anxious and fearful” and were “clamouring” for action to be taken.
He said up to 80% of new infections were spread by super-spreaders. “It doesn’t take many people to come in from an outside area who are a super-spreaders to have a very large effect.”
The Welsh government would act by the end of the week if the UK government continued to refused to stop people travelling from English Covid hotspots, he added. But Boris Johnson has repeatedly refused requests from Cardiff for English regulations to be used to stop those visitors entering Wales.
Ahead of Drakeford’s announcement, the Welsh government published a report (pdf) on the genetic makeup of the virus that causes Covid-19, which it said suggested some Welsh cases could be traced back to England.
Health minister Vaughan Gething called the insights from the study, produced by experts from Public Health Wales and Cardiff University’s school of biosciences, “fascinating and terrible”. Gething said:
What is clear from the data is that the easing of lockdown rules into August has corresponded with an increase in cases, which may partly be driven by imports from other parts of the UK and wider world.
On Wednesday Public Health Wales reported 946 new cases of coronavirus – the largest number of positive cases on a single day in Wales for the entire pandemic.
There are more than 700 Covid-related patients in Welsh hospitals, 49% more than last week and the highest number since late June.
This is from Andrew RT Davies, a Conservative member of the Senedd (Welsh parliament) and a former Tory leader in Wales.
The Welsh Government’s unhealthy obsession with travel restrictions and “banning the English” flies in the face of all the evidence.
— Andrew RT Davies (@AndrewRTDavies) October 14, 2020
Last month’s SAGE advice said such a move would have a “low impact” and would be “complicated” to enforce. pic.twitter.com/wroKDJlnIS
Students in Birmingham were given used coronavirus tests by mistake, with the council launching a review of the incident amid concern from those who received contaminated swabs.
The council coronavirus swab tests were accidentally handed out in Selly Oak, Birmingham as part of the city council’s drop-off and collect service. University of Birmingham students who then received the kits opened the boxes and found sealed bags inside.
Posting on the university Feb n Fresh Facebook group people have been discussing it, with one person writing: “Was anyone accidentally given a used swab kit by UOB??”
Second-year student Tasha Ashbridge reported on the community Facebook page, according to the student newspaper the Redbrick, that people in hi-vis jackets handed them testing kits that were “sealed and snapped” already, with students in affected houses saying “some had people’s names and addresses on the tests bags”.
The council said:
We are aware that a small number of tests were mistakenly given out during Drop and Collect activity in Selly Oak yesterday (13th Oct).
As soon as it became apparent that the wrong tests had been given out steps were taken immediately to rectify the mistake. Drop and Collect is a vital part of helping to tackle the spread of Covid in our city, with 100,000 tests being undertaken to date.
The circumstances around this incident are being fully reviewed and any required changes to the process will be implemented.
Updated
The latest edition of the Guardian’s Politics Weekly podcast is out. Jessica Elgot and Helen Pidd break down the three-tier risk system now in place in England. Lisa O’Carroll and Mujtaba Rahman look at the latest Brexit negotiations. Plus, Rajeev Syal speaks to Meg Hillier MP, chair of the public accounts committee.
Here is the quote from Mark Drakeford, first minister of Wales, explaining why his government intends to ban visitors from areas of England with high rates of coronavirus. Drakeford said:
Evidence from public health professionals suggests coronavirus is moving from east to west across the UK and across Wales. As a general rule, it is concentrating in urban areas and then spreading to more sparsely populated areas as a result of people travelling.
Much of Wales is now subject to local restriction measures because levels of the virus have risen and people living in those areas are not able to travel beyond their county boundary without a reasonable excuse. This is designed to prevent the spread of infection within Wales and to other areas of the UK.
We are preparing to take this action to prevent people who live in areas where there are higher covid infection rates across the UK from travelling to Wales and bringing the virus with them. I am determined to keep Wales safe.
People from high-Covid areas of England to be banned from going to Wales, first minister says
People who live in Covid-19 hotspots in England are to be banned from travelling to Wales, the Welsh first minister has announced.
Mark Drakeford said he had asked for the “necessary work” to take place to allow devolved powers to be used to prevent people from travelling into Wales from “high prevalence” areas of the UK.
Katrina Stephens, the director of public health at Oldham council, has said a circuit breaker over the October half term is the only sufficient way to tackle the virus given the transmission rate.
Stephens called for “a combination of measures” in addition to three-tier system. She added:
We’re going to need to reduce the level of contact that people have with each other quite substantially in order to really make a profound impact on the levels of transmission that we’re seeing.
But I think whatever measures come into put into place, we’ve got to consider how we mitigate the negative impact, particularly around the impact on people’s mental health and well being and financial support.
I think infection rates have got to a level where the circuit breaker approach which could potentially be a good move.
Stephens said the closure of pubs and bars – as is the base level of tier 3 – would not be enough to bring the virus under control and that universities should move teaching online as much as possible. “I think we need a combination of measures and I do think they need to be additional measures beyond what we’ve got in place at the moment,” she said.
Oldham had the highest infection rate in England throughout much of August, when its infection rate reached more than 100 cases per 100,000 people. Stephens said its infection rate is now almost four times higher - 379 cases per 100,000 - and that there had been a “particularly worrying” rise in infections among the elderly in the past fortnight which, she said, was likely to lead to increased deaths and hospital admissions.
No 10 says it wants 'maximum possible consensus' on moving areas into toughest tier 3 restrictions
Here are the main lines from the Downing Street lobby briefing.
- The prime minister’s spokesman said Boris Johnson would shortly take a decision about the next steps in the UK-EU trade talks. In September Johnson set 15 October - tomorrow - as a deadline. He said that if there was no agreement by then, “I do not see that there will be a free trade agreement between us, and we should both accept that and move on.” Today his spokesman said:
Some progress has been made this week, primarily in technical areas of the negotiations, but there are still differences with fisheries being the starkest.
We need to get the substance settled and not having a common text to work from has made progress doubly difficult.
The prime minister’s September 7 statement was very clear about the significance of October 15.
He will need to take a decision on next steps following the European Council in the light of his conversation with President von der Leyen, and on advice from his negotiating team. I cannot prejudge what that decision will be.
- The spokesman said the government wanted to reach a consensus with local leaders about moving their regions into the toughest tier 3 restrictions. But he did not rule out the government imposing tier 3 on places if necessary. He said:
We want to create the maximum possible local consensus behind what would be the most severe kind of local actions. We continue to work with local leaders on that.
But the spokesman added: “The government does have the ability to impose measures if it was felt that was what was needed to reduce transmission and to protect the NHS.”
- The spokesman stressed that the government was not pinning all its hopes on the arrival of a vaccine. The head of the Oxford University vaccine trial team has said that, even if the trial is successful, people will still need to socially distance until next summer. Asked about this, the spokesman said the government was concentrating on other measures too. He said:
We are leading efforts on development of a vaccine and also - to maximise our opportunities to detect, treat and protect ourselves against the virus - we are also supporting the development of safe and effective treatments and tests.
We can’t, obviously, pin our hopes on a vaccine but we are doing everything possible both to develop a vaccine but also to develop those other treatments which can help to reduce the symptoms of coronavirus and to save lives.
- The spokesman condemned as “irresponsible” the behaviour of some people in a crowd on the streets in Liverpool last night. (See 9.30am.)
NHS England has recorded 68 further hospital deaths for people who had tested positive for coronavirus. There were 25 in the north-west, 16 in the north-east and Yorkshire, 12 in London, seven in the Midlands, four in the south-east, three in the east of England, and one in the south-west.
This is down 19 on the equivalent figure for yesterday (87) but up 14 on the equivalent figure for this time last week (54).
Today NHS England is also recording eight further deaths where there was no positive test, but coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate.
The final process of withdrawing from the EU is as risky and complex as “political brain surgery”, the justice secretary has said in defence of the government’s controversial internal market bill, which sanctions breaking international law.
Appearing before the House of Lords constitution select committee, Robert Buckland admitted that it was an “extraordinary measure”. He repeatedly denied that supporting legislation which contemplated breaching the EU withdrawal agreement was inconsistent with his oath of office to uphold the rule of law.
Asked by the crossbench peer Lord Hennessy what would be the point where he “could take no more”, Buckland replied that his resignation would come if the government was proposing to breach “domestic law or the independence of the judiciary”. Then, he explained, “I would be the first person to lie down before the proverbial bulldozer.”
Buckland continued:
Having extricated ourselves after nearly 40 years from an unprecedented relationship with other sovereign states on the continent of Europe. This was never going to be easy.
I don’t think you can ... [shy] away from the fact that the process of Brexit was going to be akin to political brain surgery. And here we are at the end of that enterprise trying to anticipate the last threads, last complications that could upset things in quite a dramatic way.
He said controversial clauses in the bill would only be used if the EU demonstrated “bad faith” but admitted there had been no sign of that in negotiations so far. He promised the government would abide by dispute resolution mechanisms in the EU withdrawal agreement in parallel with the emergency clauses in the bill.
The House of Lords is due to debate and vote on the internal market bill next week.
Updated
Boris Johnson is going to speak to Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, tonight, my colleague Lisa O’Carroll reports. They are due to discuss progress in the UK-EU trade talks.
Boris Johnson to talk to Ursula von der Leyen at 7.30pm
— lisa o'carroll (@lisaocarroll) October 14, 2020
Eight London boroughs are now recording more than 100 new cases of coronavirus a week per 100,000 people, Nicholas Cecil reports in the Evening Standard. He says four more boroughs are just below this point, which is seen as a threshold for London moving out of the medium tier 3 to the high tier 2, where tighter restrictions, including a ban on indoor household mixing, would apply.
Bolton Tory council leader says Starmer misquoted him at PMQs
Here is the quote from David Greenhalgh, the Conservative leader of Bolton council, David Greenhalgh, saying that Sir Keir Starmer misrepresented his views when he said Greenhalgh backed a circuit breaker lockdown.
Keri Starmer accused of misrepresenting Bolton council leader at PMQs pic.twitter.com/7Kcjt2eaq1
— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) October 14, 2020
And here is Labour’s response.
Labour’s response to Bolton claim pic.twitter.com/QrcmqhC8Jt
— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) October 14, 2020
This is what Starmer actually said to Boris Johnson about Greenhalgh at PMQs.
[Johnson] probably hasn’t noticed that this morning, the council leaders in Greater Manchester that he’s just quoted, including the mayor and including the Conservative leader of Bolton council, have said in a press statement that they support a circuit-break above tier 3 restrictions. Keep up Prime Minister.
Polling from Ipsos Mori Scotland puts support for independence at a record peak of 58%, while 64% said that the UK government should allow a second referendum to be held in next five years if the SNP wins a majority of seats at Holyrood next May.
Asked about it at her briefing, Nicola Sturgeon said that she was not going to comment on an opinion poll at the coronavirus briefing, but said: “I think what the people of Scotland want from me is clear and frank leadership ... and not to shy away from the tough decisions.”
She added that the pandemic had changed her perspective, insisting: “Nothing else matters to me right now than taking the hard, necessary decisions I need to take to get the country through this challenging period as best I can.”
Last month, the Guardian investigated the growing support for independence since the pandemic began, speaking to those who have changed their minds over the past six months, and find it striking how often Sturgeon’s daily briefings were mentioned.
Interviewed for that piece, leading polling expert Sir John Curtice explained that, after the Brexit vote, there was some counterbalance between Scots who voted remain and then moved from no to yes on independence, and those disenchanted leave voters who abandoned their nationalist sympathies. With so many more remain voters in Scotland, the arithmetic took the country to 50/50 by January. But since then the increase in support for independence has occurred amongst remain and leave voters, pointing to the enormous difference in public perception of how well the Scottish and the UK government have been handling the pandemic.
Updated
PMQs - Snap verdict
Yesterday felt like an important moment in the Labour/Tory dynamic, as Sir Keir Starmer decisively abandoned his “constructive opposition” supportive approach to Boris Johnson’s coronavirus strategy and called for a short, hard national lockdown. With Labour lined up alongside public opinion and the scientific consensus, and many Tory MPs arguing that the government is already being too restrictive, Johnson arrived for PMQs looking more beleaguered than usual. Labour supporters may have been hoping for a rout.
In the event, it wasn’t quite like that. Starmer scored two notable hits and (as usual) he had the better of the argument, but Johnson was stronger than he’s been at many recent PMQs. Perhaps that’s just a function of just how low expectations about his performances have fallen.
As for the hits, Starmer’s best moment came when he responded to the charge of opportunism by ridiculing the idea that someone who “has been an opportunist all his life” was in a position to say that about him. The “senior government source” who briefed journalists yesterday that Starmer was “a shameless opportunist playing political games in the middle of a global pandemic” really should have seen that one coming. Starmer normally seems a bit squeamish about going personal, but sometimes it’s justified, and this line worked brilliantly because it is essentially true.
Starmer’s other hit came when he claimed that the Conservative leader of Bolton council was among the Greater Manchester leaders arguing in favour of a circuit breaker lockdown (Labour’s plan). See 12.08pm. In fact, David Greenhalgh, the Tory councillor in question, has said Starmer is wrong, and a close reading of the Greater Manchester leaders’ statement might have flagged this up. (See 12.08pm.) But Johnson didn’t have the facts available to challenge Starmer, and anyone watching would have concluded that Starmer has caught him out.
Bolton Council leader David Greenhalgh's told us he's not in favour of a circuit breaker lockdown, after Sir Keir Starmer suggested he was at PMQs. Greater Manchester's leaders are currently divided over whether it's the way forward to contain Coronavirus #CapitalReports pic.twitter.com/xRwhHfRHUO
— Capital North West News (@CapitalNWNews) October 14, 2020
(In the past some readers have objected to the idea that a Tory can “win” an argument with a bogus fact. Well, Labour politicians can do it too.)
Under pressure to justify his coronavirus policy, Johnson broadly relied on two approaches. First, he accused Starmer of inconsistency, because Labour has broadly the supported the government until now and because Labour abstained on votes on the regulations on Monday. Johnson was clever and mocking as he made these points, and his MPs seemed to like it, but ultimately this is a procedural argument (ie, of no interest to anyone outside Westminster), and in fact the Labour position is more defensible. Second, and more effectively, Johnson repeatedly stressed the downsides of the policy Starmer is advocating. He said that Sage itself accepts that a short national lockdown would cause economic harm. Claiming that Starmer was proposing “the misery of another national lockdown”, Johnson also said:
He wants to close pubs, he wants to close bars, he wants to close businesses in areas across the country where the incidence is low.
Johnson also suggested that Starmer wants to keep children out of school, which is not true. Perhaps a better argument might have been to say that Sage itself thinks a “circuit break” lockdown would not necessarily be a one-off. “Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of incidence,” the Sage report says.
Yet Johnson could not counter Starmer’s strongest point, which was that even Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, thinks the tier 3 restrictions announced on Monday won’t on their own be enough to halt the spread of the virus. Starmer was right, and Johnson seemed to realise it, which was why, alongside defending his policy, he conceded towards the end: “I rule out nothing, of course.”
It might have been the most prescient line of the session.
Updated
Sturgeon urges Scots not to visit Blackpool because of Covid risk
Nicola Sturgeon is asking Scots not to travel to Blackpool, revealing at her daily briefing that the popular seaside town is being mentioned in test and protect tracing “far more than any other location outside Scotland”.
She said that in the last month around 180 people diagnosed with Covid had reported that they had recently visited in Blackpool.
Acknowledging that trips to Blackpool are “an annual ritual” for many Scots, Sturgeon said that a separate incident management team had been set up to deal specifically with Blackpool-related infections.
She said people who were still planning a trip there should not go, and that people who had already booked holidays to Blackpool should be extremely cautious when they travelled and told football fans directly: “Do not travel to Blackpool this weekend to watch the Old Firm match in a pub. If you do that you will be putting yourself and other people at risk.”
Anne McLaughlin (SNP) asks about a green energy mis-selling scandal.
Johnson says McLaughlin is right to raise this. He will write to her about the case, he says.
And that’s it. PMQs is over.
Martin Vickers (Con) asks if the PM backs Immingham becoming a free port.
Johnson says he is aware of this.
Wendy Chamberlain (Lib Dem) asks what can be done to ensure interoperability between the English Covid app and the Scottish one.
Johnson says he will look at this.
Karen Bradley (Con) asks if the PM will ensure that victims of modern slavery are always treated with respect.
Yes, says Johnson. He says more victims are being identified than ever before - 10,000 in 2019.
Johnson says Northern Ireland is getting at least £2.4bn extra money to deal with coronavirus. But the government will also consider “imaginative” ways of protecting jobs.
Allan Dorans (SNP) asks for an assurance that the £20 uplift to universal credit will be retained.
Johnson says it will stay until April next year.
(Earlier he hinted that it would also be extended beyond that. See 12.20pm.)
Lee Anderson (Con) asks for an assurance that Ashfield will no longer be forgotten, and that its glory days can return.
Johnson says the town is in line from funding through a growth deal.
Helen Hayes (Lab) asks about a constituent who cannot sell their flat because of flammable cladding on it.
Johnson says they must get on and remove it.
Sir Gary Streeter (Con) says he backs the PM’s plans to expand offshore wind. Does he know about the plan for this in the Celtic Sea? Will the government back it?
Johnson says the Crown Estate, as the landlord of the seabed, will respond positively.
Matt Western (Lab) asks about the story about Robert Jenrick and his colleagues approving spending for each other’s constituencies.
Johnson says this was approved. If Western has an allegation to make, he should make it.
Our story about these payments is here.
The SDLP’s Colum Eastwood asks how ordinary workers could survive on two-thirds of the national living wage.
Johnson says a combination of the job support scheme and the benefit system means no one will get less than 93% of their salary.
Updated
Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says the PM can either extend the furlough scheme or see a tsunami of job losses. What will he do?
Johnson says the Treasury has already announced help. And universal credit has been increased. That will go through until April “at least”.
Blackford says Johnson’s colleagues are saying his next job could be on the backbenches he just doesn’t know it yet. (That’s a reference to jokes about the government’s reskilling advert.)
Updated
Tim Loughton (Con), the former children’s minister, says as an experienced parent himself, he knows how important face to face contact his. Will he ensure parents still get visitors from health visitors?
Johnson says they will continue to work through the pandemic.
Starmer says he has supported the government so far. He has taken criticism for it. But he has read the Sage advice, and he supports it. The Telegraph says the chances of the PM backing a circuit break are about 80%. If so, why doesn’t he do it now, and save lives.
Johnson again accuses Starmer of a U-turn. Everyone can see what Labour is doing. They see this as a good crisis for the Labour party. He sees it as a national crisis to be tackled. He says he is ruling nothing out. His strategy can turn this round, he says. He urges Labour to support it. He hopes that Starmer will “change his mind, and think the better of his actions”.
Starmer says he cannot think of a single scientist who backs the PM’s plan. The chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, said on Monday he was not confident tier 3 measures would get the R rate below 1.
Johnson says Starmer is misrepresenting his position. He says if there is full and proper enforcement, and proper test and trace, then tier 3 measures will reduce the R number, locally and regionally, in order to avert what they want to see. He says Starmer has performed an extraordinary U-turn.
Starmer says, for someone who “has been an opportunist all his life”, he knows the PM finds it hard to understand this. But Starmer says he personally has read the Sage advice, and concluded it was right. What is the plan to get R below one?
Johnson says it is the plan that Starmer supported on Monday. “Opportunism is the name of the game for the party opposite”, he says. He says in the afternoon Labour said a national lockdown would be disastrous. At 5pm Starmer was calling for it.
Johnson says he wants to keep kids in schools. Starmer would yank them out, he says.
He urges Starmer to back the government’s plan, as he did on Monday.
Starmer says the Manchester leaders, including the Conservative leader of Bolton, have put out a statment saying they back a circuit breaker. Keep up prime minister, he says.
(In fact, the statement says only some of them support the circuit breaker plan. See 11.35am.)
Starmer asks why test and trace has gone so wrong?
Johnson says they are dealing with the disease where it is surging. Last night Labour voted to do nothing, he says. At 5pm he called for a national lockdown. But when it came to a vote, he failed to turn up.
Starmer says he does not think the PM’s plan goes far enough. Since Sage offered that advice the R number has gone up. Hospital admissions in England have gone from 275 a day to 625. Why is that?
Johnson says he explained in the Commons on Monday. The disease is at different levels in different parts of the country. That is why a tiered approach is needed. The most stringent approach will be in the places where it is surging. So will Starmer encourage his Labour friends in those areas to support those measures.
Sir Keir Starmer says Johnson used to say his policy would be guided by the science. So why did he reject the Sage call for a circuit breaker?
Johnson says he will do whatever is needed to fight the virus. But the Sage document says policy makers will need to consider the harms a lockdown could cause. He says his policy can bring down the R number. Starmer supported it on Monday. Will he stick to that?
Boris Johnson starts by saying he agrees with Tory Shailesh Vara about the need to honour unsung heroes of Covid.
Before PMQs Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, says it is for the Commons to decide if it moves towards a more virtual parliament. But he says it is for the government to bring forward a motion to that effect. He would be happy to support it, he says. But he stresses that the final decision is the government’s, not his.
Lancashire getting tier 3 restrictions 'inevitable', says council leader
Geoff Driver, the Conservative leader of Lancashire county council, told the BBC that he thought it was “inevitable” that his county would go into the tier 3 most serious alert level, meaning the strictest restrictions would apply. He said:
With the high rates of infection in most parts of the county area it’s inevitable we’re going to move into tier 3.
It’s really a question of when and how, and we’re working with government trying to put together a package of measures that will mitigate the inevitable impact on that particular sector of the economy.
In an interview on the Today programme this morning Prof Matt Keeling, one of the Sage academics who wrote the new paper saying a short lockdown could save lives (see 9.06am), explained what a “circuit breaker” of this kind might achieve. He said:
What we’ve got at the moment is a situation where most areas of the country are facing an exponential rise in cases, and what a circuit-breaker or precautionary break would do is drive down R for that short two-week period.
It would effectively bide us more time to put other controls in place.
One of the ways of thinking about this is it kind of takes us back in time to when cases where lower, and therefore gives us opportunities to do other things, it reduces the number of cases as well as leading to a similar decline in hospitalisations and also deaths over a short period.
Asked about the numbers of lives that could be saved as a result of a circuit breaker, he said:
We looked at a range of different scenarios, from a relatively low growth rate going forward where we might sort of reduce deaths by a third between now and new year, to some extreme scenarios, which I think are the ones that have been quoted in the papers, which really were if we don’t do anything between now and the new year.
When it was put to him that a short lockdown “simply postpones” deaths, Keeling said he “completely” agreed with that but added:
We stress that this is only a short-term measure - it buys us time to put other measures in place, but at the moment we do need that time.
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Wales preparing for possible circuit breaker lockdown, first minister says
Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, told Sky News this morning that his government was “very actively talking about and preparing for” a circuit breaker lockdown in Wales. He said “detailed planning” was under way to establish what measures would be put in place during a circuit breaker, how long it would last for, how schools would be treated and how to come out of it. He said:
We want to act now in order to prevent the worst from happening, to give us a better chance of getting through the rest of the autumn and the winter, and if a circuit breaker is the right way to do it then that is what we will do ...
I’m not announcing it today but I do want people to know we are planning very seriously, so if we do need to do it we’ll be in a position to do it and in a position to do it quickly.
PM's strategy could leave 'large parts of north trapped in tier 3 for much of winter', Greater Manchester leaders say
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, and the leaders of all 10 councils in the region, have released a joint statement saying they are opposed to any move by the government to place them under tier 3 restrictions, the very high alert ones that are currently only in force in Merseyside. They say:
We do not believe we should be put into tier 3 for two reasons.
First, the evidence does not currently support it. The rate of Covid infection in Greater Manchester is much lower, at 357.6 cases per 100,000, compared to Liverpool city region which is in Tier 3 at 488.0 cases per 100,000. Plus our hospital admission rate is much lower than in LCR [Liverpool city region] as deputy CMO, Jonathan Van Tam, highlighted in his press conference this week. Liverpool University hospitals NHS foundation trust 7-day rolling average Covid patients in beds is at around the 225 mark and in Manchester University NHS foundation trust it’s at the 100 mark.
Second, the financial package accompanying tier 3 is nowhere near sufficient to prevent severe hardship, widespread job losses and business failure.
In the statement, which is relatively long and detailed, the leaders say they “reject the government’s current drive to pile pressure on places to enter tier 3”. They also say they fear the government’s current strategy could leave “large parts of the north of England trapped in tier 3 for much of the winter”.
They say that at the weekend they presented the government with an alternative strategy, involving Greater Manchester being in tier 2 for no more than four weeks, combined with councils getting new powers to enforce Covid safety, test and trace being localised, and the 10pm closing time rule being revised. But the government has not provided a substantive response, they say.
And they also say that, as an alternative to the government’s current approach, some of them would rather see a short, national lockdown. They say:
If cases continue to rise as predicted, and the government continues to refuse to provide the substantial economic support that tier 3 areas will need, then a number of leaders in Greater Manchester believe a national circuit break, with the required financial support would be a preferable option. This would create the conditions for a re-set of the test and trace service into a more locally-controlled operation which, with cases driven down to a lower level, would be more likely to succeed.
The statement is signed by Burnham, his deputy Bev Hughes, and the leaders of Manchester, Rochdale, Salford, Oldham, Bolton, Wigan, Bury, Tameside, Trafford and Stockport councils. They are all Labour politicians except Bolton’s leader, David Greenhalgh, who is a Conservative.
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In the Northern Ireland assembly Arlene Foster, the first minister, has just said that the executive will be finding ways of helping businesses forced to close by the new rules.
Unite, the largest trade union in Northern Ireland, said it was the region’s workers who were being punished by the “failure” of local politicians to deal with the Covid-19 crisis there.
Responding to the announcement of new restrictions, Neil Moore, Unite’s organiser for the hospitality in the region said local workers in the sector “feel they are being kicked whilst they are down and will once again be paying the price for this global pandemic”.
He added: “The politicians have failed to control the virus and hospitality workers feel they are being punished for that failure. Many will face redundancy or having to survive on two-thirds of the paltry minimum wage ahead of Christmas.”
Northern Ireland’s Retail Consortium, while welcoming the decision to keep the retail sector open during the four-week shutdown, called on the public entering shops to play their part by washing their hands, keeping their distance and wearing a mask in stores.
Aodhán Connolly, the director of the consortium, also appealed to the public in Northern Ireland to avoid another wave of panic buying as “supply chains remain robust and goods are flowing freely so there is no need to stock up”.
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Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker, has said he would like to see the Commons return to operating on a largely virtual basis, as it did during the lockdown in the spring. In an interview with Times Radio, he said it was up to the house to decide whether to move back to an almost virtual parliament. But asked what he would do if it was his decision, he said: “I would say let’s look at it straight away and let’s start to move to a new place.”
He also urged MPs to take care of their health, and warned that they could become “super-spreaders”. He said:
What we have got to watch out [is that] MPs could easily become super-spreaders because they come from all parts of the country ... Whatever happens, people’s lives matter most, their health comes first and people with certain medical conditions, people of a certain age - I’m saying you’ve got to look after yourself.
My advice - and it’s advice not instructions - is to say put yourself first, look after yourself and make sure you are here for the long-term ... do not put yourself at risk - that’s either travelling or coming into this building.
And these are from Times Radio’s Tom Newton Dunn.
New: Commons Speaker is urging MPs to stay away from Parliament as fears mount that it is again becoming a coronavirus hotbed. Has held a series of calls in the last week with vulnerable and older MPs to advise them of growing risk of contracting covid on the Westminster estate.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 14, 2020
His advice follows several outbreaks of the virus within Parliament. One centres around the Parliamentary police force, which is believed to have seen 45 Metropolitan Police officers test positive so far in the second wave - 17 alone on one day last week.
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 14, 2020
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Keith Buchanan, a DUP member of the assembly, asks what consideration was given to the impact of the measures on young people.
Foster says the executive took into account the impact of school closures from March. And it considered the impact on special needs pupils. She says that is why they decided to close schools for just a few extra days.
Colin McGrath, an SDLP member of the assembly, asks what financial help will be available for people.
Foster says the restrictions are coming into force on Friday, so people have time to plan.
Schools were going to be off for a week anyway, she says.
She stresses that this is just a time-limited intervention. It will last four weeks.
And support will be put in place, she says.
She says last night the executive discussed the measures. Tomorrow it will discuss support measures. She hopes there will be agreement.
She urges assembly members not to make “trite political points”.
Here is the press statement from the Northern Ireland executive with details of the new rules.
Foster says the rules will come into force on Friday.
They will last for four week, but any decision to exit from them must be taken carefully. A decision will need to be taken by the executive, she says.
Foster sets out details of new restrictions for Northern Ireland
Arlene Foster says the executive has looked at the new restrictions needed.
She says the doubling rate continues to rise. More measures are needed.
The current restrictions will continue she says relating to meetings allowed in people’s homes and gardens.
Bubbling will be limited to 10 people. There will be no overnight stays unless people are in a bubble.
Universities will be encouraged to use distance learning whenever possible.
Pubs and other premises in the hospitality sector will be closed apart from takeaways, with closing time at 11pm.
There will be no indoor sport, apart from at elite level.
Gyms will remain open. And so will places of worship, subject to people wearing masks.
Weddings will be limited to 25 people from 19 October.
Funerals will be limited to 25 people too.
People will be advised not to travel unless it is necessary.
The rules will be in place for four weeks.
The school half-term will be extended, so that it runs from 19 to 30 October. And pupils will return on 2 November.
Arlene Foster's statement to Northern Ireland assembly
Arlene Foster, the Northern Ireland first minister, is making a statement to Stormont about the new rules for the region.
Here is my colleague Rory Carroll’s preview story.
This is from Sam McBride from the News Letter in Belfast. He has got details of the nrew restrictions for Northern Ireland that are just about to be announced at Stormont.
Here it is: I've obtained a copy of the new restrictions which Arlene Foster & Michelle O'Neill will announced in the Assembly at 10.30. They come into force on Friday & will last for four weeks. Any extension or amendment needs Executive agreement. pic.twitter.com/HfNeqKS7F5
— Sam McBride (@SJAMcBride) October 14, 2020
Johnson reported considering short lockdown over half-term
The papers, particularly the Tory-leaning ones, are carrying reports this morning saying that Boris Johnson is considering introducing a short lockdown in England - even though a government source briefed journalists last night that Sir Keir Starmer was a “shameless opportunist” when he advocated exactly that.
The Telegraph (paywall) says Johnson will consider a “circuit breaker” if his current strategy does not work. It says:
Government sources said the prime minister could order a two-week closure of pubs, restaurants and some other businesses if measures brought in on Wednesday in Covid hotspots do not reverse the spread of the virus.
A decision will be taken toward the end of next week, ahead of the half-term holiday for state schools which begins on 26 Oct and would mark the start of any temporary lockdown.
One option under consideration is for regional circuit breakers, which might be preferred by the prime minister after he likened a second national lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. One senior source said the chances of a circuit breaker were “at least 80 per cent”.
Wednesday’s TELEGRAPH: Lockdown battle begins #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/c2m3lE7jCI
— Helen Miller (@MsHelicat) October 13, 2020
The Sun says there is a 60% chance of the PM ordering a mini-lockdown over half-term. It says:
The PM has so far rejected warnings from his medical advisers that a major reset is required.
But there is a growing belief in his inner circle that the move is inevitable.
One close Cabinet colleague said last night there is a 60 per cent chance he will bring in the measure over half-term, which begins for many a week on Friday.
And the Daily Express also says the PM is considering a “short, sharp” lockdown over half-term. It says:
One well-connected Tory insider said: “Number 10 doesn’t like the idea of a blanket national lockdown but is planning targeted regional measures that would be pretty close to the circuit breaker idea.”
The move is likely to come in during the week starting on Monday 26 October when most English schools are on their half-term break but could be extended by up to a fortnight.
A Tory MP added: “It feels like a big clampdown is on the way and half term is the obvious time to do it.”
Wednesday’s EXPRESS: Short, sharp lockdown on the cards #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/O7xvHYdYr3
— Helen Miller (@MsHelicat) October 13, 2020
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This is from Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, responding to reports that the UK government is considering placing his region under tier 3 (very high risk) restrictions, instead of tier 2 ones.
Since one meeting on Friday, the Government has not discussed these matters with us.
— Andy Burnham (@AndyBurnhamGM) October 14, 2020
Instead, the pressure is being piled on via media briefings.
Later today I will set out why the current Tier 3 proposal is fundamentally flawed and why we won’t accept it. https://t.co/6js7Zo9zg4
Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, has welcomed the paper written by Sage scientists saying a short national lockdown could save lives. (See 9.06am.) “This is important analysis and more evidence that a short circuit break is needed to get control of the virus, fix test and trace and ultimately save lives,” he said.
Growing concerns about access to flu vaccines for the very elderly are highlighted in the Scottish press this morning, with the programme described as a “shambles”.
Responsibility for delivering the jabs has been given to health boards this year, instead of GPs, but the Herald reports a software glitch means that in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Scotland’s largest health board, those in their 60s will be prioritised over more elderly people.
There are also reports of older people being left in limbo and unable to access information about the new system – which was intended to keep them out of GP surgeries and this limit potential exposure to coronavirus.
Meanwhile, pharmacies across Scotland have stopped offering private flu vaccines after unprecedented demand wiped out stocks.
Elsewhere in Scotland, the Western Isles health board has warned against car-sharing after it emerged that an outbreak on Uist had been linked to the practice. Earlier this month, NHS Western Isles said issues with public transport in Uist coupled with shift patterns meant some health and social care staff were having to car-share to get to and from work.
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Thérèse Coffey, the work and pensions secretary who was doing the morning interview round on behalf of the government, told LBC that she did not think there was any appetite in the Conservative party for a two or three-week lockdown (the “circuit breaker”). Explaining why, she said:
Parliament has only just voted last night for this national approach of the three tiers with much stronger local measures where they are needed.
And we need to take communities with us right across the country in having some of the national measures, but frankly the Labour Party was saying 19 out of 20 areas in these lockdowns haven’t made any difference, now they want to see a national lockdown.
I don’t think it is the right approach. Right now we need to allow this chance for the localised interventions to really have an effect so that together we can be focused on saving lives and livelihoods.
Coffey was also also asked about the 42 Conservatives who voted against the government yesterday when they opposed the regulations implementing the 10pm compulsory closing time. Asked if they would lose the whip, she replied:
That’s always a matter for the chief whip [Mark Spencer]. I doubt it very much.
The full list of the 42 Tories who voted against the government on this is here. They were joined by 23 Labour MPs, 10 Lib Dems, DUP MPs and Caroline Lucas from the Greens.
Cumbrian police have warned Scots not to cross the border on Saturday to watch the Old Firm match in bars and pubs there after several bars and pubs were contacted by Scottish football fans hoping to visit.
Celtic and Rangers supporters and venues have been warned ahead of the match that the rule of six will be strictly enforced by Cumbria police.
Pubs, bars and restaurants across central Scotland are closed for a two-week period, while those elsewhere in Scotland can only serve alcohol outdoors until the 10pm curfew.
Supt Matt Kennerley said: “We understand restrictions on licensed premises in Scotland might offer the temptation to travel south of the border to visit our pubs and bars - but anybody breaching rules here does face a fine.”
He highlighted Scottish government advice which says people should not travel outside their local health board area.
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Mayor condemns crowd partying in Liverpool, where Covid cases have put intensive care at 90% capacity
Large crowds gathered in central Liverpool last night as the pubs closed at 10pm, ahead of the region facing the tier 3 very high alert restrictions from today, which will mean bars only allowed to serve alcohol with a substantial meal.
Joe Anderson, the mayor of Liverpool, has condemned this behaviour.
These pictures Shame our City, attacking our brave Police Officers is unacceptable.Our Health Service is creaking,300 in Hospital&30 people dead in week 😱ignoring these facts is why we are in Tier 3 measures. https://t.co/WIW12AuAhr
— Joe Anderson (@mayor_anderson) October 14, 2020
Anderson’s tweet says the health service in the city is creaking. On the Today programme this morning Paul Brant, cabinet member for adult health and social care at Liverpool city council, said intensive care in the city was now at 90% capacity. He told the programme:
Our intensive, critical care beds are filling up very fast. The most recent figures I’ve seen suggest they are over 90% full and our acute hospital trusts have occupancy levels of Covid-positive patients of over 250.
At the current rate of increase, we would expect Liverpool to surpass the peak of the first wave probably within the next seven to 10 days ...
It has become clear that the intensity of the demand on hospital services here in Liverpool is crowding out anything other than dealing with Covid.
Scientists claim 'circuit breaker' short lockdown could save thousands of lives
Good morning. Boris Johnson may have thought on Monday, when he announced the three-tier alert system for England, that he had resolved coronavirus policy - at least for the next week or two - but 48 hours later he is under intense pressure to shift again, and implement a “circuit breaker” short lockdown. Partly that’s because it emerged late on Monday night that Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, was in favour, partly that’s because Labour embraced the idea yesterday, and this morning an unpublished paper by Sage scientists is putting numbers on the lives that might be at risk if Johnson persists with his current policy.
As the Times (paywall) reports:
A paper by members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) ... shows that a two-week full lockdown, with stay-at-home orders and school closures, from October 24 could reduce deaths for the rest of the year from about 19,900 to 12,100. Hospital admissions could be reduced from 132,400 to 66,500.
A limited lockdown, with schools and shops open but hospitality venues closed, could cut deaths to 15,600 ...
The paper by Graham Medley, chairman of Sage’s SPI-M modelling group, and the SPI-M members Matt Keeling, Louise Dyson, Michael Tildesley and Edward Hill, models the effect of different restrictions at different times.
They say that “the optimal time for a break is always now; there are no good epidemiological reasons to delay the break”, although they add that it could also be applied during the Christmas holidays or spring half-term.
Johnson is in the Commons later for PMQs, so we will get his reaction then.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, gives evidence to the Commons culture committee.
10.30am: The Northern Ireland assembly is meeting to hear details of new partial lockdown plans for the region.
10.35am: Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, address a virtual convention of the travel organisation Abta.
11am: The OECD publishes its economic survey of the UK.
11.15am: Robert Buckland, the justice secretary, gives evidence to a Lords committee on the internal market bill.
12pm: Boris Johnson faces Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs.
12.15pm: The Scottish government is due to hold its regular coronavirus briefing.
Around 12.45pm: MPs begin two debates on Labour motions relating to Covid economic support and contact tracing.
1.30pm: Downing Street is due to hold its lobby briefing.
At some point today ministers are also meeting to discuss the possibility of Greater Manchester being moved up to tougher tier 3 restrictions - the very high alert level.
As per @BBCMattCole yday, Govt health officials talking about moving Greater Manchester and Lancashire into toughest category of restrictions today
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 14, 2020
And Johnson is also due to hold talks with Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, ahead of the EU summit starting tomorrow.
Politics Live has been doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog for some time and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
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