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Summary
Here’s a round up of the main developments today:
The government’s key advisers say social distancing should remain for some time
Both Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty have cast doubt on the prime minister’s plan of a November return to normality, by making it clear they think social distancing should remain in place for some time. Both advisers warned there was a high risk of a second wave this winter and suggested some lockdown measures may have to be reimposed.
UK death toll increases by 114
The number of hospital deaths from coronavirus increased by 114 to 45,119. There were no new deaths in Scotland or Northern Ireland and one more in Wales. The number of infections increased by 687.
Boris Johnson unveils plan to return England ‘to normality’ by Christmas
Boris Johnson revealed steps to encourage people back to work in England and sweeping measures that will allow ministers to issue stay-at-home orders to tackle coronavirus outbreaks. Johnson said that from Saturday local authorities would have new powers to close specific premises, shut outdoor spaces and cancel events. He also set out plans for central government to intervene in local areas by issuing “stay-at-home” orders, limit the numbers at gatherings beyond national rules and restrict transport.
Employers to decide on whether staff should return to offices
Johnson appeared to tone down an expected call for employees to return to offices. Instead it will be up to employers to discuss with workers whether it is safe to return from 1 August.
Bowling, skating rinks and casinos and live performances to restart
Most remaining leisure settings, including bowling, skating rinks, casinos and close-contact services such as beauticians will be allowed to reopen from 1 August. But nightclubs and soft play areas will stay closed. Indoor performances to live audiences will also restart in August, subject to pilots. Larger gatherings in sports stadiums will also be piloted with a view to reopening in the autumn. Wedding receptions for up to 30 people will also be allowed.
Testing to increase and NHS to get extra funds
Coronavirus testing will be boosted to increase capacity to “at least” half a million a day – 3.5m a week – by the end of October. The NHS will get an extra £3bn to help it prepare for a possible second coronavirus wave which could be “more virulent”.
Capt Tom Moore has been knighted
Capt Tom Moore has been knighted by the Queen in recognition of his outstanding achievement of raising almost £33m for the NHS. The Queen personally praised the 100-year-old veteran, telling him: “Thank you so much, an amazing amount of money you raised.” Afterwards Sir Tom said: “Never ever did I imagine that I should get so close to the Queen and have such a kind message from her.”
Top civil servant overseeing care homes in England steps aside
The top civil servant with responsibility for care homes in England has stepped aside, sparking fresh concern about an absence of government leadership in a sector that has recorded 21,600 deaths from Covid-19 – almost 40% of all UK fatalities from the virus. Rosamond Roughton, the director general for adult social care at the Department for Health and Social Care, “is now on a career break”, according to Whitehall sources.
Hancock orders review into PHE coronavirus death statistics
Matt Hancock has ordered an urgent review of how Public Health England compiles its daily count of Covid-19 deaths, amid concerns they are exaggerated. A study by Oxford University pointed out the PHE figures record deaths of anyone who has previously tested positive for coronavirus. But experts point out that the PHE’s daily figures underestimate the true picture. They say figures from the Office for National Statistics, which record deaths that mention Covid-19 on death certificates are higher than PHE’s count.
Andrew Lansley accuses Johnson of blaming the NHS for Covid-19 failings
The Conservative former health secretary has criticised the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and accused it of trying to blame the NHS for its own failings. Lansley made clear that delays in instigating the lockdown, ordering personal protective equipment (PPE) for NHS staff and increasing testing were made by ministers, not health service bosses.
Updated
More than 100 people will take part in the next phase of clinical trials to test a new coronavirus vaccine developed at Imperial College London, PA Media reports.
Work began earlier this week to vaccinate a larger number of participants to assess the optimal dosage of Imperial’s Covid-19 vaccine candidate.
It follows a “successful” initial phase of the trial which involved 15 volunteers, Imperial said.
In the next phase 105 people, aged 18 to 75, will randomised to receive their first shot of one of three doses of the vaccine at a west London facility, followed by a booster shot four weeks later. Neither the participants nor clinical staff will know which dose they have received, Imperial said.
Prof Robin Shattock, who is leading the development of Imperial’s vaccine, said:
The progression to the next phase of the trial is an important step in assessing the safety of our vaccine. Analysing blood samples for antibodies and T-cell response will provide some indication of whether our vaccine can produce an immune response to fight the virus.
Shattock said larger clinical trials will still be required to determine whether the vaccine candidate is able to reduce the spread or severity of coronavirus.
Updated
A public health professor has said scrapping social-distancing measures in time for Christmas is an “enthusiastic approach that is premature” because the infection rate is still too high, PA Media reports.
Linda Bauld, a professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, said the infection rate in the community is currently too high for this to happen.
She pointed to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey published on Friday, which shows there are around 1,700 new cases a day in England, the same amount as last week.
She said most countries still had the 1-metre rule as a minimum, with the exception of New Zealand and Vietnam.
Bauld said:
The only way it would be possible to get rid of the 1-metre rule is if, over several months, we don’t have any Covid cases around the country.
It does seem strange to suggest we can remove all social distancing if the virus is still in the community even in small levels, and when people are flying in and out of the country. This is an enthusiastic approach that’s premature.
She said any suggestion by the government to scrap social distancing by November contradicted its statements about planning for a potential second wave:
We might be in a better place in November but I am not optimistic. Those of us in the scientific community are worried about winter so why would they say this could happen at such a crucial period? Seems to me this is about trying to have a normal Christmas. I hope we have zero cases but we are not there yet.
Updated
The Vallance and Whitty hearing has now finished. Here are the main points.
The government’s key advisers said social distancing should remain for some time
Both Vallance and Whitty have cast doubt on the prime minister’s plan of a November return to normality, by making it clear they think social distancing should remain in place for some time. Whitty said:
Distancing remains an important part of this mix and how it’s interpreted in different environments has evolved, but it has not gone away. [It] need[s] to continue for a long period of time.
Vallance said:
If it’s the case that it goes round the world and comes back again, then clearly we remain as a population exposed to this. And therefore the measures of reducing contact to reduce spread, the sorts of social distancing measures that we’ve talked about, and the hygiene measures that go along with that, will be necessary.
Vallance and Whitty conceded it was a mistake not to release Sage paper earlier
Whitty said this was an error. Vallance said: “We definitely made a mistake earlier on by not getting the Sage minutes and papers out quickly.”
Some lockdown measures may have to be reimposed in winter
Whitty said that when schools reopen “other measures” may have to be introduced to compensate for the increases in infection this could produce. He suggested that in the winter months more stringent measures will be needed. He said: “It’s possible in winter we may have to do some other things.”
Vallance said: “The higher the numbers in circulation when you go into winter, the higher the likelihood you get a significant peak. And that speaks to the importance now of getting our numbers down and getting on top of this with the measures that are in place.”
The probability of a second wave is ‘very high’
Vallance said: “There is a very significant chance that it comes back in force. Everyone that I’ve spoken to thinks it’s highly likely that this disease will continue to circulate and will come back in waves.”
Updated
Vallance said it was 'mistake' not to release Sage papers earlier
Vallance acknowledged that the scientific group he chairs should have published papers earlier in the pandemic.
He said:
We definitely made a mistake earlier on by not getting the Sage minutes and papers out quickly.
It was right to get the papers out and make sure people could see the evidence. And so I think that’s an important lesson to be learned.
The speculation before the papers were released about what was in them and also who was on Sage was far more exciting and fruity than the truth when the papers come out, when people can see the nature of the scientific work behind it.
Whitty agreed it was an “error” not to release the data earlier.
Updated
Here’s what Captain Sir Tom Moore said after being knighted (see earlier).
"Never ever did I imagine that I should get so close to the Queen and have such a kind message from her"
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) July 17, 2020
Captain Sir Tom Moore describes experience of getting a knighthood from the Queen at Windsor Castle as "truly outstanding"https://t.co/MKNE1OjrJ8 pic.twitter.com/kix4gpEBCz
Updated
Rochdale has brought in measures to try to prevent the spread of Covid-19 and avoid a localised lockdown.
It is the second town in north-west England to make the move, after Blackburn with Darwen introduced new rules on 14 July as cases increased.
Rochdale residents are being urged to wear face coverings in shops – before compulsory measures come into force in England on 24 July – and to limit visitors to two people.
Andrea Fallon, Rochdale borough council’s public health director, said: “The fight against coronavirus is not over. Although lockdown measures are being relaxed across the country, we can see from our local data that we need to remain vigilant to the threat posed by the disease.
Wakefield, in West Yorkshire, could also soon be identified as an “area of concern”, its council has said, after an increase in coronavirus cases. Public Health England figures showed the rate of infection in the city was around 20 cases per 100,000 people as of 13 July, up from 14.8 the previous week.
Theatres and venues in England will be able to host socially distanced performances and gigs from 1 August under new government plans, but the move has been criticised for not being “economically viable” for most venues.
The culture secretary, Oliver Dowden, said the plan, which is the fourth stage of the government’s five-step plan for reopening arts venues, was a “welcome step in the path to a return to normal”. But industry figures said until stage five begins, when performances are allowed indoors and outdoors with “fuller audiences”, theatres and music venues would not be able to reopen and survive financially.
“From August, indoor theatres, music venues and performance spaces will safely welcome audiences back across the country,” Dowden said. “This is a welcome step in the path to a return to normal and, coupled with our £1.57bn rescue package, will help secure the future of this important sector.”
Updated
UK death toll increases by 114
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said 45,233 people had died in hospitals, care homes and the wider community after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK as of 5pm on Thursday - up by 114 from 45,119 the previous day.
The DHSC also said that in the 24-hour period up to 9am on Friday, there had been a further 687 lab-confirmed UK cases. Overall, a total of 293,239 cases have been confirmed.
Shadow health minister, Justin Madders, has this:
Whitty and Vallance weren’t at the press conference this morning and now we are hearing their much more realistic assessment about the chances of a return to normality we know why https://t.co/EQtsagyUHO
— Justin Madders MP (@justinmadders) July 17, 2020
Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall makes a similar point:
No doubt of a big fissure in the Johnson/Vallance/Whitty triad.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) July 17, 2020
Vallance and Whitty essentially sticking to line that life won't return to normal until we have a vaccine
PM saying that isn't the case because we have better tech/knowledge/structures in place.
Important division
Updated
Whitty warns that “when children go back to school we may have to put in other measures to make up for that”.
He adds:
These kind of trade-offs between different sorts of tools we have to reduce viral transmission, each one of which comes at a social cost. Putting together the optimal package for this particular virus, and that optimal package may be very different in the winter compared to other months, we don’t know that yet because we haven’t yet got data.
Updated
Vallance: 'very high probability' of second wave
There is “a very high probability” of a second wave of the virus, Vallance warns. He also says it is vital to get the number of cases down before winter with the measures that are currently in place.
He says:
There is a very significant chance that it comes back in force.
Everyone that I’ve spoken to thinks it’s highly likely that this disease will continue to circulate and will come back in waves, and it may well be seasonal, and perhaps some of the things happening in the southern hemisphere now might support that.
The higher the numbers in circulation when you go into winter, the higher the likelihood you get a significant peak. And that speaks to the importance now, of getting our numbers down and getting on top of this with the measures that are in place.
If it’s the case that it goes round the world and comes back again, then clearly we remain as a population exposed to this. And therefore, the measures of reducing contact to reduce spread, the sorts of social distancing measures that we’ve talked about, and the hygiene measures that go along with that, will be necessary.
Updated
Scientists advising the government wrote last month that do not believe it is possible to return to a “pre-Covid normality” without contact tracing and other measures that would “be difficult to achieve”.
The 22 June opinion by modellers feeding into the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) was contained in the latest tranche of documents released on Friday.
They wrote:
SPI-M-O (scientific pandemic influenza group on modelling, operational) do not believe it is possible to return to a ‘pre-Covid’ normality, without levels of contact tracing and Covid security effectiveness that would be difficult to achieve, without some sort of additional increase in immunity, either through vaccination or infection.
As a result, thought should be given to the triggers for when measures should be reintroduced, what metrics should inform this, and what further data and information may need to be collected.
Updated
Whitty calls for social distancing to remain for a long period
Whitty calls for social distancing measures to remain in place for some time. He says:
There are issues around distancing, which have been buried but the reality is distancing remains an important part of this mix and how it’s interpreted in different environments has evolved, but it has not gone away. [They] need to continue for a long period of time.
Updated
Whitty warns that lockdown measure may have to be reintroduced in the winter.
There are a group of things you could do probably for three seasons of the year, but it may be that in winter it is more difficult, because winter so benefits respiratory viruses. So we do have to accept we may be able to do things for a period. It’s possible in winter, we may have to do some other things.
Vallance agrees, saying: “Come winter, the challenges will be very much greater.”
Updated
Whitty says he recognises the balance the government has to strike between scientific and economic advice.
There is an incredibly difficult balance that political leaders are having to make where they’re walking a narrow path where on one side, we could cause enormous unnecessary economic and social damage, people be isolated, all the unemployment. [On the other side we could] end up with the epidemic coming back in a second spike. Walking that path is extraordinarily difficult. We’re providing the science and epidemiology side of this and some of the social side, but the economics comes from other areas.
Almost invariably we will be in the room when the big decisions are going to be discussed and present the data, but then it is ultimately for the senior policymakers to integrate these very difficult competing necessary points.
Updated
Captain Tom Moore knighted
Capt Tom Moore has been knighted by the Queen in recognition of his outstanding achievement of raising almost £33m for the NHS, PA reports.
Staged in the open air, in the imposing setting of Windsor Castle’s quadrangle, the ceremony the 100-year-old former army officer was joined by his family.
In brilliant summer sunshine the Queen hosted the informal ceremony and spent around five minutes chatting to Sir Tom and his family. She personally praised the veteran, telling him: “Thank you so much, an amazing amount of money you raised.”
As the Queen chatted she was overheard telling Moore: “One hundred is a great age.”
The talk turned to national events and coronavirus, and the Queen, who has been sheltering at Windsor with Philip, asked: “Have you been shut up - been isolating?”
Updated
Vallance says there is a risk of group-think within Sage. He added: “It’s something that needs to be guarded against ... external challenge is important.”
Updated
The former Conservative cabinet minister Liam Fox said he was equipped to have the difficult conversations that will help edge the US back into full participation with the World Trade Organization as he made his pitch in Geneva to become the troubled organisation’s next director general.
Fox, a strong Eurosceptic. was speaking in Geneva at three days of hustings and interviews for the job made vacant by the early departure of Roberto Azevêdo.
Fox is arguably hampered by being a male politician from a developed country that has recently renounced a free trade agreement with its closest trading partner, and has only just joined the WTO as an independent member. No woman has ever run the 164-member organisation.
But Fox said the organisation needed a scarred political heavyweight capable of talking directly to major countries about the value of a rules-based free trade order. He said Covid crisis-induced recession made it even more important for the UK and the EU to try to reach a new open and liberal free trade agreement that will show mutual confidence in the recovery of the global economy.
A late entry to the contest after he convinced Downing Street he was a credible candidate, and a better option than the Labour pro-European former EU trade commissioner Lord Mandelson, Fox’s candidacy is a test of UK clout after Brexit.
Seven other candidates are vying to take over the troubled organisation, including three from Africa, and one each from South Korea, Mexico, Moldova and Saudi Arabia.
The EU does not have a candidate in the race, and seems more likely to back an African than a Brexiter. But Fox said he hoped the EU “would back the candidate most in line with their values and aspirations for global free trade that the EU has”.
The new leader, due to take over in the autumn, and appointed through consensus, rather than voting, has a mammoth task in reducing the China-US trade tensions, and reversing a climate of protectionism worsened by calls for shorter supply chains.
Updated
The Scottish government has announced that the country’s census will be held over for a year until 2022, because of pandemic-related delays in planning and testing of questions – which include controversial amendments to the binary sex question, which may include guidance to fill it in according to how you self-identify.
The economy secretary, Fiona Hyslop, said the decision to delay – which now means Scotland’s major 10-yearly data collection exercise will be out of sync with the rest of the UK – was “not taken lightly”.
The Office for Statistics Regulation insists the three census offices of the UK (National Records of Scotland, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, and the ONS in England and Wales) “will work closely to minimise the impact on UK data coherence and to ensure that high-quality data is available to inform policy, investment decisions and the planning of services”.
Kath Murray, of the Edinburgh-based policy analyst at the collective MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, which has compiled a number of critical reports on proposed changes to the Scottish census, said:
The delay to Scotland’s census, without a reciprocal shift by ONS, has implications for UK-wide data consistency that is not acknowledged in the Scottish government announcement. Separately, we hope that NRS will use the extra time to consult with data users and relevant experts on the framing of the sex question, and properly address ongoing concerns about the impact of a self-identified sex question on data reliability at the sub-population level.
Updated
Vallance tells the committee that Sage has met 47 times this year to discuss the coronavirus crisis, “which is extremely unusual”.
Whitty points out that the “great majority” of scientific advice to the government does not come through Sage.
Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty at Lords science committee
The chief scientist, Sir Patrick Vallance, and the chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, are due to appear before the House of Lords science and technology committee.
Updated
Summary
Here are the main points so far today:
Boris Johnson unveils plan to return England ‘to normality’ by Christmas
Boris Johnson has unveiled his plan for a “more significant return to normality” by Christmas, as he revealed steps to encourage people back to work in England and sweeping measures that will allow ministers to issue stay-at-home orders to tackle coronavirus outbreaks. Johnson said that from Saturday local authorities would have new powers to close specific premises, shut outdoor spaces and cancel events. He also set out plans for central government to intervene in local areas by issuing “stay-at-home” orders, limit the numbers at gatherings beyond national rules and restrict transport.
Employers to decide on whether staff should return to offices
Johnson appeared to tone down an expected call for employees to return to offices. Instead it will be up to employers to discuss with workers whether it is safe to return from 1 August.
Bowling, skating rinks and casinos to open
Most remaining leisure settings, including bowling, skating rinks, casinos and close-contact services such as beauticians will be allowed to reopen from 1 August. But nightclubs and soft play areas will stay closed.
Live performances to restart
Indoor performances to live audiences will also restart in August, subject to pilots. Larger gatherings in sports stadiums will also be piloted with a view to reopening in the autumn. Wedding receptions for up to 30 people will also be allowed.
Testing to increase and NHS to get extra funds
Coronavirus testing will be boosted to increase capacity to “at least” half a million a day – 3.5m a week – by the end of October. The NHS will get an extra £3bn to help it prepare for a possible second coronavirus wave which could be “more virulent”.
Top civil servant overseeing care homes in England steps aside
The top civil servant with responsibility for care homes in England has stepped aside, sparking fresh concern about an absence of government leadership in a sector that has recorded 21,600 deaths from Covid-19 – almost 40% of all UK fatalities from the virus. Rosamond Roughton, the director general for adult social care at the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC), “is now on a career break”, according to Whitehall sources.
Hancock orders review into PHE coronavirus death statistics
Matt Hancock has ordered an urgent review of how Public Health England compiles its daily count of Covid-19 deaths, amid concerns they are exaggerated. A study by Oxford University pointed out the PHE figures record deaths of anyone who has previously tested positive for coronavirus. But experts point out that the PHE’s daily figures underestimate the true picture. They say figures from the Office for National Statistics, which record deaths that mention Covid-19 on deaths certificate is more than PHE’s count.
Andrew Lansley accuses Johnson of blaming the NHS for Covid-19 failings
The Conservative former health secretary has criticised the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and accused it of trying to blame the NHS for its own failings. Lansley made clear that delays in instigating the lockdown, ordering personal protective equipment (PPE) for NHS staff and increasing testing were made by ministers, not health service bosses.
Updated
At a Downing Street press conference on Friday, the prime minister announced a roadmap that he hopes will steer England to a “more significant return to normality”:
Updated
Andrew Lansley, the Conservative former health secretary, has criticised the government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and accused it of trying to blame the NHS for its own failings.
Lansley made clear that delays in instigating the lockdown, ordering personal protective equipment (PPE) for NHS staff and increasing testing were made by ministers, not health service bosses.
Lansley – who is now a Tory peer – also warned that Boris Johnson’s plan to grab much more direct control of the NHS, as revealed in the Guardian last week, was wrong and would undermine the service.
Writing in the Guardian, Lansley pinned the blame for Britain’s unsuccessful attempts to control the coronavirus and the unusually high death rate on ministers being slow to act when the pandemic struck.
“It was central government that was in charge of the decisions on lockdown, on PPE procurement and on testing, where the delays impacted most. The lesson of the pandemic response in England is not that there is a lack of central control [of the NHS], but too much of it,” he writes.
Updated
Love them, or loathe them, British tourists are back in Greece and Athens’ tourism minister has wasted no time in expressing his delight.
Greeks were “very, very happy” that Britons were finally returning, Harry Theoharis said. “We always enjoy the company of our friends from the UK,” he told Sky News as air links resumed on Wednesday. They had been suspended since March, although that didn’t stop Boris Johnson’s father, Stanley, travelling to his Aegean villa despite British nationals also having been advised to avoid all but essential international travel.
It appears Theoharis’s feeling is reciprocated: within 24 hours of the flight ban being lifted, around 1,200 Britons had landed in Greece. And by Friday, a reported 200 planes had flown from the UK to the country’s 18 regional airports.
Updated
No further deaths have been reported in Northern Ireland where the Covid-19 death toll remains at 556.
UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19)https://t.co/YN16dmGzhv pic.twitter.com/jLLrzkBKdu
— Department of Health (@healthdpt) July 17, 2020
16 more die in English hospitals
A further 16 people who tested positive for coronavirus in hospital in England have died, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 29,160.
The victims were aged between 47 and 93 and all had known underlying health conditions.
Here’s a regional breakdown:
East of England 2
London 0
Midlands 5
North East & Yorkshire 2
North West 3
South East 4
South West 0
Updated
Death toll in Wales rises by one
The death toll in Wales has increased by one to 1,546.
Public Health Wales also reported 16 more cases, to take total infections to 16,887.
The latest number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus in Wales has been updated.
— Public Health Wales (@PublicHealthW) July 17, 2020
Data dashboard:
💻 https://t.co/zpWRYSUbfh
📱 https://t.co/HSclxpZjBh
Find out how we are responding to the spread of the virus in our daily statement here: https://t.co/u6SKHz0zsG pic.twitter.com/AhKI8Lra4l
Updated
No new coronavirus deaths in Scotland
There were no new Covid-19 deaths in Scotland over the last day - meaning the hospital death toll remains at 2,491. Those testing positive for the virus rose by 17 to 18,401.
Scotland recorded its first coronavirus-related death in eight days on Thursday.
As of 2pm today 314,898 people in Scotland have been tested for #coronavirus
— Scottish Government (@scotgov) July 17, 2020
296,497 confirmed negative
18,401 positive
2,491 patients who tested positive have sadly died.
Latest update ➡️ https://t.co/bZPbrCoQux
Health advice ➡️ https://t.co/l7rqArB6Qu#COVIDー19 pic.twitter.com/1QqzZusNZv
Updated
Prof Sheila Bird, from the University of Cambridge MRC biostatistics unit has said the daily coronavirus death toll compiled by Public Health England undercounts the true numbers, despite new concerns about exaggerated figures.
For England and Wales, authoritative figures on Covid-mention deaths (bar those referred to coroners and not yet registered) are reported weekly by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Tuesday’s report accounted for 50,548 Covid-mention deaths registered by 3 July 2020 with ONS for England and Wales.
By comparison, the daily cumulative count of confirmed Covid deaths is something of an undercount. I think it important that in reporting on Covid-19 deaths, journalists set the daily count against the larger backdrop of the latest ONS count along with the cumulative count of excess deaths from early March (also from ONS). Few news reports report all three – perhaps because the ONS’s counts are released only weekly. However, they give a more complete picture on a weekly basis than does the daily reporting of a subset of Covid-mention deaths. The daily tallies are themselves subject to reporting delay.
Public Health England may, in effect, be following up a national virtual cohort, namely: England’s cohort of persons who ever tested positive for Sars-CoV-2. Follow-up for all-cause and cause-specific mortality in distinct epochs of time after swab-date is prudent. Indeed, this type of record-linkage study for the short- and longer-term fatal effects of Covid-19 disease has considerable merit in its own right.
The problem comes if PHE does not make clear whether the deaths they report are Covid-mention on death certification; and in which epoch of follow-up (first 4-weeks, next 8-weeks, weeks 12-26 after swab-date) the death occurred.
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The Local Government Association has urged ministers to only use new powers to impose local lockdowns as a last resort.
Its chairman, James Jamieson, said:
Greater powers for councils to take swift and effective action to address local outbreaks will hopefully help avoid the need for more stringent measures to be imposed locally.
Managing local Covid-19 outbreaks will always need to build on the consent of local communities and an effective system of tracing and testing. The use of enforcement powers should be an option of last resort where individuals or organisations are unable, unwilling or opposed to taking actions that reduce the spread of this virus.
Data flow to councils has improved, including the introduction of daily updates. Further improvements to this, including granular-level data, to councils are still needed so they are better able to act in real time to increases in infection rates and help prevent the spread of further infection. This would help councils be even more prepared ahead of any possible deadly second wave of Covid-19.
Updated
Mark Drakeford, the first minister of Wales, described Johnson’s prediction that there may be a return to normality by Christmas as “a pretty sunny view of circumstances”.
Drakeford referenced reports that predicted a “worse experience” in the winter than in the spring due to the way Covid-19 circulates.
He said:
While we are able to, we will go on unlocking lockdown measures in Wales and return us to something that looks a bit more like things were before the virus hit.
Can we be confident that in the depths of winter we will still be in a position to go on doing that?
I think you have to take a pretty optimistic view of the advice that we have had to think that is a realistic proposition.
The government has been accused of “passing the buck” to employers on the decision around returning to work, as organisations said “significant” caution remains among employees, PA Media reports.
The Trades Union Congress said there is a lot of work for employers to do before they can reopen workplaces, including risk assessments and consultations with unions.
The general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said:
We all want to get the economy up and running as quickly as possible. Returns to workplaces must happen in a phased and safe way. The government is passing the buck on this big decision to employers.
The Federation of Small Businesses said some employers will be concerned that the government appears to be “reducing its direction” as restrictions are lifted.
Its national chairman, Mike Cherry, said:
Many will be feeling hopeful following the prime minister’s intervention today – especially those across England that rely on commuter footfall, host events or conduct face-to-face beauty treatments.
But others will worry that the government is reducing its direction on the unlocking process, in contrast to how it managed the lockdown.
The British Chambers of Commerce director general, Adam Marshall, said “crystal clear” guidance is needed for employers to decide on reopening offices.
He said other factors, such as schools reopening, childcare and the capacity of public transport, will all influence decisions on people coming back to work.
While some businesses want to return and will welcome the PM’s announcement, others are less keen, Edwin Morgan, the director of policy at the Institute of Directors, said.
While we have heard from businesses who are keen to return to offices, there is also a significant amount of caution out there.
Directors need to balance the risks, and won’t want to increase the possibility of closures down the line by rushing back.
As the prime minister emphasised, employers will have to consider their own circumstances, and some of the behaviour changes from coronavirus may be long-lasting.
Similarly, the human resources body CIPD said a recent survey it had done showed some employers plan to double the proportion of staff who work from home regularly beyond the pandemic.
And it said the findings of a separate survey of more than 1,000 employees suggested almost half (49%) of people who are not currently attending their workplace are anxious about returning.
The National Association of Head Teachers said parents must feel confident for their children to go back to school before they will be able to return to work.
Nick Brook, the deputy general secretary of the union, said:
We’ve seen already that a significant number of parents do not yet have that confidence.
Over the summer, we need to see as much effort from government in communicating a ‘back to school’ message as was first invested in the ‘stay at home’ instruction.
Updated
The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, said it was vital that Johnson’s plan was endorsed by experts in order to win public confidence.
He said:
This can’t be done on a wing and a prayer. It requires a credible plan and national leaders.
"The key now is confidence... can we have confidence that the government's scientific advisers support these measures?"
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 17, 2020
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer questions whether the public and businesses have confidence in the government's latest virus guidancehttps://t.co/CONf8cgTNv pic.twitter.com/xmBk59wcBU
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Sir Patrick Vallance’s caution over people returning to work may have scuppered Johnson’s plans to be more forthright about encouraging people to go back in August.
The chief scientist told MPs on Thursday that he saw no reason for people to stop working from home.
Vallance’s intervention might explain Johnson’s mixed messages on public transport and his shifting of the onus on to employers about whether staff should return to offices or continue to work from home.
Vallance will get an early chance to react to Johnson’s more nuanced than expected remarks on the issue. He is due to appear with the chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, at the Lords science and technology committee at 3pm.
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Many have picked up on Johnson’s comments about grandparents looking after children and have questioned whether the prime minister understands the rules about household bubbles.
In answer to a question from Victoria from Tadcaster, Johnson suggested social distancing didn’t apply for grandparents looking after children if they were treated as a household bubble. This interpretation has been widely challenged.
According to Victoria’s question, as read out by Johnson, she asked:
You’re urging people to go back to work if they can. However our main childcare providers are grandparents. That means we must stay 1 metre [away] within households. Do you plan to scrap the 1 metre distance rule within households and allow them to provide childcare and in turn, more people will be able to return to work?
Johnson replied:
I think your children’s grandparents would count as part of the bubble that you’re forming as it were within with two households indoors. So I think you’d be OK and you’d continue to be OK with those childcare arrangements within your household.
What we’re trying to say about the 1 metre rule generally, and social distancing generally, is that clearly looking through to the spring looking through to the long term, social distancing will continue to have [impacts] on many sectors of the UK economy. We hope that by November at the earliest, if we can continue to make progress in our struggle against the virus, then its conceivably possible to move away from the social distancing measures, from the 1 metre rule.
Why is Boris Johnson, the actual prime minister, saying on TV that grandparents and their grandchildren are in the same social bubble so indoor social distancing doesn’t apply when that’s totally wrong?
— Tom Peck (@tompeck) July 17, 2020
So you can use grandparents (plural) for child care if you are a single parent & live alone with your dependent child. But you cannot if you live with other adults. If the grandparent lives alone, they can form a support bubble with a household of more than one adult.
— Rob Powell (@robpowellnews) July 17, 2020
What you cannot do is have a household of two adults & a child forming a support bubble with a household of two grandparents & using them for childcare without any social distancing. Although two households can meet inside but only with social distancing (hard to do childcare!).
— Rob Powell (@robpowellnews) July 17, 2020
@matthew_weaver Have I misunderstood the grandparents rule all this time? Or has BJ got it wrong just now? Current guidance is that bubbles are for single person HHs, and social distancing must be maintained for those outside your bubble? Pretty crucial for thousands of people!
— Laurence Venables (@lgpvenables) July 17, 2020
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Here’s video of Johnson shifting the onus on to employers on whether to reopen offices.
The Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, is giving the last of the daily coronavirus press conferences in Wales. From next week it will be replaced with a weekly one each Tuesday.
He marked the event by looking back on the crisis. Drakeford said: “A great many sad things have happened here in Wales. Livelihoods and businesses have been lost, children’s education has been affected, families have been unable to see loved ones and more than 2,400 people have died from coronavirus in Wales alone.”
But he added:
The worst of those fears we had at the start of the crisis, those worst fears have been averted ... In the last week we’ve had several days when there have been no new reported deaths at all.”
While coronavirus is and has been in retreat in Wales, that crisis is not over.
''The worst of those fears we had at the start of the crisis, those worst fears have been averted.''
— ITV Wales News (@ITVWales) July 17, 2020
First Minister Mark Drakeford says because people followed lockdown rules the early predictions of the potential impact of the pandemic have been avoided https://t.co/4SifiXva6E pic.twitter.com/L9BggK9NPI
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Boris Johnson has set out the next steps for England’s coronavirus response, unveiling measures that will allow ministers to shut down entire sectors in areas or issue local stay-at-home orders.
Summary
Here’s are the main points from Johnson’s announcement:
A shift from blanket national measures to local responses
At the start of the pandemic, we knew far less about the nature and the spread of the virus and we had to take blanket national measures. National lockdown was undoubtedly the right thing to do and saved many thousands of lives. Now our intelligence on where it is spreading is vastly improved. That means we can control it through targeted local action instead.
Johnson announced a “framework for containing and controlling future outbreaks in England” to give councils new powers in their areas for controlling the local outbreaks.
Minister will get powers to order lightning local lockdowns
From Saturday, councils will be able close specific premises, shut public outdoor spaces and cancel events. But central government will also be given the power to intervene in areas. Johnson said:
Where justified by the evidence, ministers will be able to close whole sectors, or types of premises in an area. Introduce local stay at home orders, prevent people entering or leaving defined areas; reduce the maximum size of gatherings beyond national rules, or restrict transport systems serving local areas.
Making 500,000 tests a day available before winter
As we approach winter, we will need to go further, not least as many more people will show Covid-like symptoms as a result of seasonal illnesses, and therefore require a test. So we will further increase testing capacity to at least half a million antigen tests a day and 3.5m antigen tests a week by the end of October.
Warning that the second wave could be more ‘virulent’
It’s possible that the virus will be more virulent in the winter months. And it’s certain that the NHS will face the usual annual winter pressures.
A flu vaccine programme and £3bn for the NHS
We will be rolling out the biggest ever flu vaccination programme in the history of the UK. I can confirm that we’re providing an additional £3bn of funding for the NHS in England to get ready for winter. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will also receive additional funds. This will allow the NHS to continue to use the extra hospital capacity acquired from the independent sector, and also to maintain the Nightingale hospitals, until the end of March.
‘Anybody may use public transport’
Johnson was equivocal about using public transport. He said: “We are making clear that anybody may use public transport, while of course encouraging people to consider alternative means of transport, where they’re available.”
Encouraging a return to work in August
From 1 August the stay-at-home advice will change, but it will be up to employers to decide whether to open up offices. Johnson said:
We’re going to give employers more discretion and ask them to make decisions about how their staff can work safely. That could mean, of course, continuing to work from home which is one way of working safely and which has worked for many employers and employees. Or it could mean making workplaces safe, by following Covid-19 secure guidelines. Whatever employers decide they should consult closely with their employees, and only ask people to return to their place of work if it is safe.
Skating rinks and casinos to open but nightclubs to stay closed
From 1 August, we will reopen most remaining leisure settings, namely bowling, skating rinks, casinos, and we will enable close contacts services – beauticians to resume. Nightclubs and soft-play areas sadly need to remain closed.
Indoor performances to resume
We will restart indoor performances to a live audience, subject to the success of pilots. And we will also pilot larger gatherings in venues like sports stadia with a view to a wider reopening in the autumn.
We will also allow wedding receptions for up to 30 people. All of these measures from 1 August should be done in a Covid-secure way.
From October, we intend to bring back audiences in stadia, and to allow conferences and other business events to recommence.
An aspiration for ‘normality’ by Christmas
Throughout this period we will look to allow more close contact between friends and family, where we can. It is my strong and sincere hope that we will be able to review the outstanding restrictions and allow a more significant return to normality from November at the earliest possibly in time for Christmas.
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Q: Are you the biggest threat to the union of Scotland and England?
Johnson says it’s thanks to the strength of the union that we’ve been able to muster the strength of the response that we have.
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Q: How optimistic are you that families will be able to spend Christmas together?
Johnson says:
You’ve got it completely right about Christmas, because it’s not only a very important time of year for the families, it’s also a very important time of year for the UK economy, and for many many millions of people working in all kinds of sectors. It is important that we hope for the best. But plan for the worst.
Q: How can you restore confidence in government?
In the end, the real secret is the common sense and the collective action of the British people.
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Q: How many civil servants should return to work?
Johnson says:
I think there’s a balance and we’ve learned huge lessons throughout this crisis about the potential of technology, but I think there are also limits. Sometimes there is no substitute for face-to-face meetings and interactions, so that’s what many many employers will be starting to say from the first of August, there is balance to be struck.
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Q: Vallance said there is no need to change the stay at home advice, so why change it?
If the place of work is Covid-secure then in our view it is safe, Johnson says. Whether they need to go into work is not something that the government can decide. But in the end, human interaction, face-to-face conversations are important.
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Q: Why ease lockdowns when there is a risk a second wave could be more virulent?
Johnson says: “The chief scientific adviser and the chief medical officer give us advice, which we of course take very, very seriously. But in the end decisions are taken by the elected politicians, we have to weigh the advice that we get.”
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Q: Should employers do more to encourage workers back to work in August, and how does that square with Patrick Vallance’s view?
Johnson says he totally agrees with Vallance. It is very much for companies to decide whether employees come into the office. There should be discussions between employers and staff about how they think people could be most productive. If the place of work is safe they should come in, but that is not for the government to decide.
Q: Is there a problem with Public Health England figures on Covid-19 deaths?
Johnson says Hancock has promised a review.
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Q: Can you scrap the 1 metre rule for grandparents caring for children?
Johnson says grandparents count as a family bubble, so you’d be OK.
We may get away from social distancing by November, he says.
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Q: What can the public do to prepare for a second wave?
Johnson says: “There are basic things we can do to protect ourselves and to protect everybody else: washing your hands, observing social distancing, using face coverings on public transport or in shops.”
Lady Harding says if you’re in doubt, get a test.
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Johnson says he wants to return to normality by Christmas.
It is my strong and sincere hope that we will be able to review the outstanding restrictions and allow a more significant return to normality from November at the earliest, possibly in time for Christmas.
If we continue to pull together, as we have done so far, I know we can beat this virus: hoping for the best, but planning for the worst, and it’s in that spirit that we must carry on waging this long, hard fight against coronavirus
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Work-from-home advice updated from 1 August
“Even as we plan for the worst. I strongly believe we should also hope for the best,” Johnson says.
From 1 August, we will update our advice on going to work.
Johnson fudges on whether people should return to work.
We’re going to give employers more discretion and ask them to make decisions about how their staff can work safely. That could mean continuing to work from home, which is one way of working safely and which has worked for many employers and employees. Or it could mean making workplaces safe.
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Nightingale hospitals to stay 'until end of March'
Johnson promises the biggest ever flu vaccination programme in the history of the UK.
I can confirm that we’re providing an additional £3bn of funding for the NHS in England to get ready for winter.
This will allow the NHS to continue to use the extra hospital capacity acquired from the independent sector, and also to maintain the Nightingale hospitals, until the end of March.
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On testing, Johnson says the UK has the best testing rate per capita in Europe. But as winter approaches testing capacity will increase to 500,000 per day by the end of October.
It is possible the virus will be more virulent this winter Johnson warns.
From tomorrow councils will have powers to shut businesses and outdoor spaces, and cancel events.
Next week we’ll publish draft regulations which clearly set out how central government can intervene, more effectively at a local level, when justified by the evidence. Ministers will be able to close whole sectors, or types of premises in an area; introduce local stay at home orders, prevent people entering or leaving defined areas, reduce the maximum size of gatherings beyond national rules or restrict transport systems, serving local areas.
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National lockdown was the right thing to do at the start of the pandemic, Johnson says. But now targeted local action is more appropriate. It is already working in Weston-super-Mare, Kirklees, Blackburn, Bradford and Leicester, he says.
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Johnson says the R rate is between 0.7 and 0.9.
I’m pleased to report that we’ve continued to make steady progress in our collective effort to beat the coronavirus. For three weeks now the number of new cases identified through testing, each day has been below 1,000.
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Boris Johnson to hold coronavirus press conference
The prime minister will be holding a press conference at the unfamiliar time of 11am. He’s expected to set out the detail of new funding trailed overnight for the NHS, as well as details of plans to ease the lockdown further (whatever Patrick Vallance says).
My colleague Matthew Weaver will be taking over the blog to cover that in a moment.
Scots are being urged to “clap for Nicola” this Sunday, to thank the first minister and SNP leader for her efforts during the coronavirus pandemic as she celebrates her 50th birthday.
The Clap for Nicola Facebook page encourages its thousands of sign-ups to get out their pots, pans and bagpipes (so often languishing at the back of a Scottish cupboard) to thank Sturgeon for the “exceptional job” she has done so far this year.
With the SNP looking set for another victory at next May’s Holyrood elections, a consistent majority in favour of Scottish independence coming through in polling and the FM’s personal approval ratings riding high, the imperative to “make sure Westminster hears us” may well be surplus to requirements.
Inevitably, the plan has not been met with unalloyed support – but when did Twitter ever agree on anything?
Last month, Sturgeon spoke to Holyrood magazine about how the pandemic had changed her attitude to turning 50:
I’m totally approaching my birthday in a different frame of mind where, without being sort of too sentimental and clichéd about it, I am probably like lots of people right now, just more likely to count my blessings and focus on the things around me that I should be grateful for, like, you know, my family, my husband and having good health. I undoubtedly feel different about turning 50 than I would have felt without the experience of the last three months. I would say that I now feel less bothered about turning 50 than I felt about turning 40.
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The ONS has also published a statistical bulletin on the social impact of coronavirus. It puts some numbers on some of the big themes of how to reopen the economy, and how comfortable people are taking the steps necessary to get there. The research says:
- In the past seven days, six in 10 adults (61%) who have left their homes have worn a face covering to slow the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) – an increase from last week (52%).
- Just over four in 10 (41%) adults had family or friends visit them in their home over the last week, and for those aged over 70 years this rises to five in 10 (50%).
- When meeting up with other people more than half of adults (55%) always maintained social distancing, with just over one in 20 (6%) saying they rarely or never maintained social distancing.
- Nearly three in 10 adults (27%) said they would be comfortable or very comfortable to eat indoors at a restaurant, compared with two in 10 adults (20%) last week.
People are feeling more stressed and anxious than they were last week; men are more likely than women to leave the house for leisure activities; and just 9% are expecting to take a holiday abroad this summer. Lots more interesting information to pore over here.
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More than 50,000 deaths involving coronavirus in England and Wales, ONS says
The Office for National Statistics has just published its latest coronavirus death figures. They say that between 1 March and 30 June, there were 50,335 deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales. 46,736 of those deaths had Covid-19 assigned as the underlying cause of death.
Some 26% of those who died had dementia and Alzheimer’s, the ONS said.
It’s worth noting that these figures are not based on the same apparent anomaly as the Public Health England figures mentioned earlier, and simply count deaths recorded as being caused by coronavirus on death certificates – which means that the example of those who “had a heart attack or were run over by a bus” being counted as coronavirus cases does not apply.
On the PHE anomaly, one of the authors of the article that prompted a review, Dr Yoon Loke, said the method chose by PHE would be “reasonably accurate” at the beginning of the pandemic when there were few people in the community who had survived the virus, but would become increasingly flawed as time went on, with ever more people surviving coronavirus only to die of something else. He estimates that more than 1,000 deaths may have been wrongly attributed to coronavirus by PHE.
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There will be no Scottish government media call this lunchtime, the first time that there has been no weekday coronavirus briefing since the pandemic began. Scaling back for the summer also means that Nicola Sturgeon will miss the opportunity today to point out that her government is better at sums.
When the Scottish finance secretary, Kate Forbes, pointed out that Scotland was likely to receive only £21m from Rishi Sunak’s emergency £30bn summer statement, she was attacked by Scottish Conservatives for creative accounting.
Now the Institute for Fiscal Studies has completed its analysis of the statement and discovered that, by looking at allocations through the Barnett formula, it was the chancellor’s own claims of extra money that were not all they initially seemed to be, a fact that Sturgeon has not been slow to point out online.
It was @KateForbesMSP who figured it out, and pretty quickly too. And she was rounded on by Scot Tories claiming she was wrong. She wasn’t. https://t.co/tiFBuHbqGU
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) July 16, 2020
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Hancock orders urgent review into PHE coronavirus death statistics
Yesterday two Oxford University statisticians published an alarming article which said there was a serious flaw in the way Public Health England has been recording coronavirus deaths: they say that PHE has been recording the deaths of anyone who has previously tested positive for coronavirus as a coronavirus death.
Yoon K Loke and Carl Heneghan wrote:
By this PHE definition, no one with Covid in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness. A patient who has tested positive, but successfully treated and discharged from hospital, will still be counted as a Covid death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later.
If this is correct, it may mean that the number of coronavirus deaths in England has been significantly overestimated.
The Evening Standard’s political editor, Joe Murphy, reports that Matt Hancock will order an “urgent review” of how PHE compiles its statistics. His report was subsequently confirmed by the Guardian. Murphy tweets:
BREAKING ....
— Joe Murphy (@JoeMurphyLondon) July 17, 2020
Matt Hancock calling "urgent review" into a staggering fiasco at Public Health England.
They are counting people who die of natural causes as coronavirus deaths if they tested positive at any time previously.
Not clear how many deaths were recorded in this way
You can read Heneghan and Loke’s article – which they caution has not been peer reviewed – here.
Updated
After a soft launch to ease back into welcoming visitors, the National Gallery has now extended its opening hours to allow more people in. It said there had been “huge demand” for its “once-in-a-lifetime” Titian exhibition, which had been forced to close three days into its initial run.
Having previously closed at 4, it will now stay open until 6pm. Visitors follow one or two of three one-way art routes instead of meandering through the vast gallery at leisure.
Other big London museums will be opening up again soon – with the Tate galleries expected back later this month and the Natural History Museum, Victoria & Albert Museum and Science Museum due to open in August.
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Anne Longfield, the children’s commissioner for England, is warning that nurseries may be under threat from coronavirus, with one in four saying they may not exist in a year’s time. “If we’re gonna get the country ‘battle ready’ for what’s ahead,” the best place to start is in funding for early years education, she says.
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Today's agenda
As well as the prime minister’s press conference, here are a few other key events coming up today:
The ONS weekly update on coronavirus and social impacts will come out at 9.30am.
The latest R rate and infection growth figures will be published by Sage around midday.
Away from coronavirus, Liam Fox will take his talents to the World Trade Organization, where he will set out his credentials for the job of the organisation’s director general before giving a press conference at 1.30pm.
Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty will be speaking at the House of Lords science and technology committee this afternoon at 3pm.
And at some point after 3pm, Capt Tom Moore will be knighted by the Queen at Windsor Castle, leaving everyone trying to remember if you say Captain Sir Tom Moore or Sir Captain Tom Moore. It must be the former, “Sir Captain” sounds daft.
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Brokenshire says government will continue to listen to scientific advice ahead of PM's expected 'back to work' comments
Brokenshire is asked about Patrick Vallance’s opposition to a return to workplaces, in contrast to Boris Johnson’s expected remarks today. “We will continue to be informed by the advice we get from Sage,” including Vallance, he says. “It’s about ensuring the advice and guidance is there ... to create these Covid safe spaces, but ultimately it’s for employers to make those decisions based on their individual businesses,” he adds.
On whether there will be more than the £3bn extra money announced for the NHS today, he says “it’s important that we do invest for the winter ... obviously we continue to keep this under reflection”, and thus successfully concludes the interview without really saying anything much.
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Brokenshire is now speaking on the same subject on the radio. He calls the hacking by agents “linked to the Russian state” “completely unacceptable”. But he won’t say whether the hacking is believed to have been successful. He says the Russian government is being “hypocritical” by claiming to support responsible behaviour online while carrying out hacking attacks.
Asked if it was a mistake to sit on the Russia report, which is expected in the next few days, he says it is a matter for the intelligence and security committee. He dodges a question about why that process took so long.
Then he is asked about the expulsion of Julian Lewis, the new chairman of the committee, from the Conservative party after he beat the government’s preferred candidate, Chris Grayling, with support from opposition parties. “It is for the committee to make those decisions but obviously party managers will take separate decisions around that ... The chief whip made the decision and I support the chief whip in his decision making,” he says.
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Speaking on BBC Breakfast, security minister James Brokenshire says that the National Cyber Security Centre is 95% certain that cyber attacks against labs developing a Covid-19 vaccine were carried out by the Russian state.
“This is incredibly serious, it is appalling that any government should act in this way and why we have called this out,” he said.
Of the NCSC, he said: “Their attribution is about 95%-plus in terms of who is responsible.”
“I think the court of appeal were entitled to say that ... she is further down the scale of danger than other individuals,” says Jonathan Hall QC, the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation. “I don’t know what her current mindset is,” he adds.
Asked whether she will now be prosecuted, he says that there is a “lacuna” in the law for those who provide “moral support” to terrorists. “The criminal law tends to look at battlefield activities,” he says.
“It’s clearly the case that the court was influenced by her age,” he adds of Begum, who was 15 at the time.
You can read our home affairs correspondent Jamie Grierson’s analysis of the issues in the case here. He writes: “The thrust behind the most recent twist in Begum’s legal battle is driven by principles of access to justice and the right to a fair trial – rather than issues of security or Begum’s personal story.”
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The news that the court of appeal decided yesterday to allow Shamima Begum to return to Britain makes many front pages this morning, and is now under discussion on the Today programme.
Richard Walton, former head of counter-terrorism command at the Met, says the court has made a “profound mistake”. “It’s quite alarming to see the court of appeal taking over the home secretary’s job of deciding who should be allowed into the UK,” he says.
Asked for evidence that Begum poses a threat, he says: “I’m not privy to that evidence, but in her own words she said she had a good time ... and she said she was OK with severed heads.” He adds: “We can safely say she was radicalised when she did that interview. One wonders if this is a decision that was influenced by gender and age ... she poses a real and genuine threat, we have to trust the home secretary on that.”
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With much discussion today of how to encourage people to embrace the reopening of the economy, Joanna Partridge reports grim findings for England’s pubs, bars and restaurants. Figures released overnight find that sales since they reopened are about 40% down compared with the same period last year.
On the other hand, argues Karl Chessell, director of the consultancy CGA which released the findings, that’s actually better bounceback for the sector than in many other countries. You can read more about that here:
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Stephen Reicher is tweeting after his Today programme appearance, saying the claim put to him that behavioural scientists thought people would not adhere to lockdown if it came too soon are untrue. Rather, he says, that view was opposed by behavioural scientists advising the government.
On @BBCr4today this morning, the old canard is repeated: 'Behavioural scientists delayed lockdown by saying there would be behavioural fatigue'
— Stephen Reicher (@ReicherStephen) July 17, 2020
So I made it crystal clear:
This idea DID NOT come from behavioural scientists
This idea WAS OPPOSED by those of us advising government.
He goes on: “It is precisely because misunderstandings of human behaviour are so rife and can do so much damage that you need behaviour scientists to give theoretically informed, evidence-led advice.”
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The government’s £3bn pledge for the NHS has been given a pretty lukewarm reception by Saffron Cordery, the deputy chief executive of NHS Providers. She tells the Today programme that “there’s a lot coming up for that £3bn to cover”.
The King’s Fund’s Siva Anandaciva says £3bn is a “low percentage” against the NHS’s £145bn total budget but much more than typical winter additions to the NHS budget. “£3bn is welcome, it will be helpful, but it is not a bonanza in the context of what has already been spent on the health service during Covid,” he says.
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British Airways announces retirement of Boeing 747 fleet
British Airways had planned to take its 31 Boeing 747s out of operation in 2024. Now it has taken the decision to retire them immediately because of the downturn in travel caused by coronavirus.
“It is unlikely our magnificent ‘queen of the skies’ will ever operate commercial services for British Airways again due to the downturn in travel caused by the Covid-19 global pandemic,” the airline said in a statement.
The 747 accounts for about 10% of the airline’s fleet.
That decision reflects the same decline shown in passenger traffic statistics which showed that travel across European airports was down 93% compared with June 2019.
While BA said the 747 would “always have a special place in our heart”, others will note the huge carbon emissions produced by the aircraft. BA said its removal will help it reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Updated
Reicher is asked about the role of behavioural science in maintaining adherence to coronavirus protocols in the future.
“One of the most important things we’ve got to do … is maintain [a sense of] shared identity,” he says. “We’ve got to support people, allow them to go along with these measures … so we’re genuinely all in the boat together.”
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On BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, the behavioural scientist Stephen Reicher is being asked about whether Johnson or Vallance is right on going back to work. “It reflects a larger muddle about overall strategy,” he says. “In England ... they haven’t articulated what their overall strategy so there’s no clear messaging,” noting that the rate of infection is 10 times higher than it is in Scotland.
He says that there should be a focused message in England about overall elimination of the virus, rather than attempting to tell the public that the government will both defeat the virus and reopen the economy.
“When Scotland started diverging from England in terms of strategy, things changed” for the better, he says, because clarity of messaging about elimination of the virus meant that people have more confidence in steps to reopen the economy when they come.
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Johnson to set out £3bn NHS winter plan
Morning. This is Archie Bland, covering UK politics and coronavirus latest for the next few hours. You can reach me at archie.bland@theguardian.com or on Twitter at @archiebland.
On the agenda this morning are a set of media appearances by the security minister James Brokenshire, who will discuss accusations that Russia attempted to steal British research into the coronavirus vaccine, and proposals to allow more tightly focused local lockdowns in response to outbreaks – after the Leicester mayor, Peter Soulsby, yesterday declared his frustration at the extent of the restrictions imposed on the city because of the outbreak there.
Meanwhile Boris Johnson will make an appearance at 11am to set out proposals for an extra £3bn investment in the NHS to get it “battle-ready for winter” – which may be hard to hear for anyone who imagines life will get back to normal in the next few months.
The plans will fund a major boost to flu vaccinations and an increase in coronavirus testing capacity, reported to be targeted at half a million tests a day by the end of October.
Johnson will also set out plans to encourage more people to go back to their workplaces – even though the chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, said yesterday he saw “absolutely no reason” for people to stop working from home.
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