23,254 people test positive in the UK, with 162 further deaths
On Sunday, 23,254 people were tested positive for Covid-19. A further 162 people have died within 28 days of a positive test.
The daily dashboard also shows there are 1,442 more patients in hospital. For a closer look at the numbers and the situation in your are, you can check the government’s website here.
Summary
- Gove and Sir Keir Starmer have both suggested that schools should stay open, even if that meant other lockdown measures having to remain in place beyond 2 December. (See 12.22pm.) But Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram, Labour metro mayors for Greater Manchester and Liverpool city region respectively, have said schools in the north-west should close for a period to drive the virus down. Burnham said:
I would suggest a period of two weeks’ closure towards the second half of November so that schools have time to prepare online learning, but that would create the conditions for the biggest drop in cases that we could achieve and it would then create the conditions for some kind of Christmas for more families because they need it right now.
- The Welsh and Scottish governments have hit back at the “unfair” extension of the furlough scheme during England’s second lockdown, weeks after the devolved nations called for the measure to support their own tightened restrictions. Rotheram also argued that the government’s decision to extend furlough for an England-wide lockdown, but not when parts of the north-west went into tier 3, showed people in the north were judged to be less in need of support. He said:
Apparently all votes count equally, but all voters demonstrably don’t to this government and the support you get from the chancellor of the exchequer depends on a horizontal line drawn across the country and on which side of it you sit ...
I can assure the government that the people of the north won’t easily forget that they were judged to be worth less than their southern counterparts.
- YouGov has published a snap poll suggesting that people in England back the new lockdown by around three to one.
That’s all from me for today.
Our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog.
Updated
These are from Nadine Dorries, a health minister.
Children under school age who are with their parents will not count towards the limit on two people meeting outside. This will mean that a parent can see a friend or family member with their baby or young children.
— Nadine Dorries 🇬🇧#StayAlert (@NadineDorries) November 1, 2020
Children and adults who are dependent on round-the-clock care, such as those with severe disabilities, will also be included. The guidance will be updated to reflect this.
— Nadine Dorries 🇬🇧#StayAlert (@NadineDorries) November 1, 2020
This government briefing explains exactly what the rules are that will apply in England under the new lockdown from 5 November.
Scotland has recorded 1,148 more coronavirus cases, the Scottish government has recorded.
That is 4% up on yesterday (1,101) but 12% down on last Sunday (1,303).
There are 1,193 Covid patients in hospital, the same as the figure for the previous day, but 17% up on the total published last Sunday (1,016).
And there have been six more reported deaths. That is well below the figure for yesterday (24), but the reported death figures covering the weekend often tend to be low for administrative reasons.
Updated
Sir Desmond Swayne, one of the Conservative MPs most opposed to a second lockdown, told Sky News that the policy announced by the PM yesterday would have “disastrous consequences”. He said:
I’m worried about the disastrous consequences for unemployment, for wrecked businesses, for years of under-investment while we try and pay this off, when the reality is that the number of deaths for the time of year is normal and expected.
It is very difficult to believe scientists who tell you that there is a deadly pandemic taking place when there are no excess deaths beyond the normal five-year average.
I think we have chosen a course which is worse than deaths from the virus.
Swayne’s claim that there are no excess deaths may be based on ONS figures for the summer.
But the most recent ONS report on deaths in England and Wales shows that weekly death rates are now starting to run at above the five-year average again.
This chart shows excess death figures (the gap between the dark blue line, all deaths, and the dotted black line, the five-year average) for this year.
And this chart shows excess deaths by region in England and Wales in the week ending 16 October, the most recent week for which figures are available. All regions apart from the south-east of England are recording excess deaths.
Burnham and Rotheram call for school closures to help drive down Covid in north-west
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has called for schools in his region to close for a period during the lockdown to help drive down the virus. He was speaking at a joint conference with Steve Rotheram, the mayor of Liverpool city region, who also backed the proposal. Burnham said:
It’s my view, and it’s shared by Steve, that we do need to see a period of closure in our schools if we are to get those cases right down, and if we are to avoid a scenario where large parts of the north-west are simply put back in tier 3 coming out of this.
There is more coverage on the Manchester Evening News’ live blog of the press conference.
The Burnham/Rotheram proposal puts them at odds with their party leader, Sir Keir Starmer, who wants to prioritise schools staying open. The government is also opposed to school closures. See 12.22pm.
Here is a question from BTL I can help with.
At the start of the pandemic a lot of the talk at the press conferences focused on R, the reproduction number, but, as you say, it does not tell us anything about the speed with which a disease is spreading. A disease like HIV could have a relatively high R even though there could be a long gap between one person with the virus infecting another.
That’s why the scientists place just as much weight on the growth rate. That shows how much the number of new infections is increasing per day. The Government Office for Science is now publishing estimates for this every week, although in practice the modellers have been using these numbers right from the start. The growth rate also determines the doubling time - the time it takes for cases to double - which is another metric much quoted by the experts.
There is a good article explaining the differences between R and the growth rate here.
Thousands have died because lockdown was delayed, says Liverpool's mayor
Although Sir Keir Starmer chose not to explicitly argue that more people would die because Boris Johnson ignored Labour’s call for a lockdown in September when he was interviewed by Andrew Marr this morning (see 12.22pm), Joe Anderson, the Labour mayor of Liverpool, did make that case in an interview this morning on BBC Breakfast. Asked for his reaction to the PM’s decision to announce a lockdown, Anderson said he felt “a mixture of emotions”. He went on:
One, of clear confusion as to why the prime minister and this government never responded to Sage on September 21 and acted then.
So, relief that it’s finally been done but real contempt has been shown by this government for the people who advised for it [another lockdown], Sage, and also leaders like me and others that were calling for it six, seven weeks ago.
I think there’s now a crisis of confidence in relation to this government and their ability to actually manage this.
It’s clear to me that the government made the choice to put people’s health and the health concerns of the nation second and listen to Tory rightwing MPs and people arguing about the economy.
I think as a result of that it’s very, very clear that thousands of people have died.
Anderson’s brother Bill died in October after contracting coronavirus.
Updated
Here is video of Sir Keir Starmer telling Andrew Marr that schools must remain open.
Sunday morning broadcast interviews - Summary and analysis
The main Sunday morning political TV interviews are now over. Here is a summary of the highlights.
- Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, has said the England-wide lockdown announced by the PM yesterday could be extended. It is due to last until 2 December. But Gove accepted it could last longer. (See 8.43am.) At his press conference last night Boris Johnson did not rule out the lockdown having to stretch beyond four weeks, but Gove was more direct when acknowledging this this morning. Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome Trust and a member of Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, also said the lockdown might need to be extended. (See 9.31am.)
- Gove and Sir Keir Starmer both suggested that schools should stay open, even if that meant other lockdown measures having to remain in place beyond 2 December. The main difference between this lockdown and the one in the spring is that schools are staying open. But this will have a big impact on its effectiveness. According to a Sage analysis, mass school closures could reduce R, the reproduction number, by between 0.2 and 0.5. That would be more effective than most other lockdown measures, such as getting people to work from home (which reduces R by between 0.2 and 0.4) and closing bars and restaurants (which reduces R by between 0.1 and 0.2). The only measure with a similar impact would be closing universities (which would also reduce R by between 0.2 and 0.5). Asked if the government would definitely keep schools open whatever happened, Gove said: “Yes, absolutely.” Asked if schools would stay open even if that meant the lockdown having to be extended, he said: “We want to keep schools open.” When pressed for clarification, he said:
I don’t believe it would be that case, but I do believe that we want to keep schools open and I believe that the measures that we are putting in place will enable us to do so.
Starmer also said that for Labour keeping schools open was a priority - even though the National Education Union wants them to close during the four-week lockdown. He said:
Schools must stay open. It’s really important. The harm that children are caused by not being in school is huge, so they must stay open.
Gove and Starmer spoke after Sage member Sir Jeremy Farrar suggested schools might need to close. Farrar said:
We know that transmission, particularly in secondary schools is high.
Personally I think this is definitely the lockdown to put in place now but if that transmission, particularly in secondary schools, continues to rise then that may have to be revisited in the next four weeks in order to get R below one and the epidemic shrinking.
- Gove suggested more help might be announced for self-employed workers affected by the lockdown. Asked if they might be offered further support, he said:
The chancellor and his team are looking at every aspect of economic support and more will be said in the days ahead about how we provide it.
- Gove rejected claims that yesterday’s announcement showed that the government was wrong to reject Sage’s call for a short nation lockdown in September. He argued that it had been reasonable to try a regional approach, that other European countries had done the same thing and that last night Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, himself said, when asked at the No 10 press conference if the government had left it too late, that “there is basically no perfect time [to act]”. See 10.16am. Whitty was sounding relatively supportive of the PM yesterday, although saying that there is no perfect time for a lockdown is not the same as saying acting late is just as good as acting early.
- Starmer said that the government’s decision to ignore his call for a short national lockdown more than two weeks ago meant it would need to go on for longer. He also said it would create “a very human cost”. He said:
Well these measures are necessary, everybody has seen the figures, the infection rates, the admission rates and tragically the death rates, and that’s why three weeks ago we called for a circuit-break.
Now at that stage the government rejected it out of hand, ridiculed it, now only to do precisely the same thing - but there’s a cost to that delay.”
The lockdown now will be longer, it’ll be harder, we’ve just missed half term and there’s a very human cost to this.
On the day that Sage recommended a circuit-break, the daily death rate was 11, yesterday it was 326, so there’s a very human cost to this, but the measures are necessary.
There is nothing more satisfying in life than being able to say ‘I told you so’, but Starmer was relatively restrained in pointing out that the PM is now doing exactly what Labour proposed last month. When Starmer spoke about the “very human cost”, he also seemed to be implying that more people will die than would have done otherwise because of the government’s delay. But he did not say that explicitly - perhaps anxious to avoid accusations of shroud waving.
- Starmer said Labour would vote in favour of the restrictions on Wednesday. This means there is no chance of the lockdown restrictions not being passed. But the Labour move may mean that Tory MPs opposed to the lockdown feel more comfortable rebelling (because it won’t be a make-or-break vote for No 10.) Johnson has a working majority of around 87. But recently 42 Tories voted against the government on a coronavirus restriction policy (the 10pm compulsory closing time).
- Starmer challenged the government to use the lockdown to fix test and trace. He said:
The government has to keep its side of the bargain here because if they don’t use this time to fix test, trace and isolate, then I think December 2 will be a review date not an end date.
Because for months and months and months they’ve promised a world-beating test, trace and isolate system which is vital... it’s been busted for months.
Use the time to fix it because otherwise we’re going to be back in this cycle for months and months and months.
- Starmer said that ideally he would like to see a four-nation approach to lockdown. But it was for the PM to lead on that, he said.
- Starmer said Jeremy Corbyn, his predecessor, should “reflect” on his response to the Equality and Human Rights Commission report on antisemitism in the Labour party. Corbyn was suspended by the party on Thursday after suggesting, in his response to the report, that the extent of the problem had been exaggerated. Asked why that happened, Starmer said:
Well I was very clear in my response to the commission report on Thursday, which found that the Labour Party had acted unlawfully and there’d been a failure of leadership, that we needed to accept the findings, accept the recommendations and implement them and apologise.
But I also went on to say that under my leadership we will root out antisemitism and that those that deny or minimise anti-Semitism in the Labour Party and say it’s just exaggerated or part of a factional fight are part of the problem.
I was therefore very disappointed in Jeremy’s response where he appeared to suggest it was exaggerated etc, and I’d invite Jeremy just to reflect on what he said on Thursday and think about what he said because I think for most people what they wanted from the Labour party on Thursday was an honest recognition of the problem and an apology, a line in the sand and a constructive way to move forward, which is what I want for the Labour party.
He also said there was no need for Labour to engage in civil war over this. See 9.51am. Dave Ward, general secretary of the Communications Workers Union, has accused Starmer of triggering “civil war”.
- Gove denied being the person who leaked information about the planned lockdown to the media on Friday.
-
Dame Carolyn Fairbairn, the outgoing director general of the CBI, said a second lockdown would be a “real body blow” for business. She said:
It’s an incredibly difficult time for business - this is a real body blow. So many firms have worked very hard to become Covid-safe, they have been resilient through the first phase, so this is undoubtedly very tough.
- Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome Trust and a member of Sage, said he expected more than one coronavirus vaccine to be approved before Christmas. He said:
We will know before the end of the year from the early vaccines that are now in late stage clinical trials ... I believe that more than one of those vaccines will prove to be effective and safe.
They may not be perfect, we’ve become used to perfect vaccines, but generally these first wave of vaccines are not perfect but they’re safe and they are effective and they will change the nature of the pandemic.
Updated
The government has finally vowed not to allow chlorinated chicken or hormone-fed beef on British supermarket shelves, defying demands from the US that animal welfare standards be lowered as part of a future trade deal.
The international trade secretary, Liz Truss, and environment secretary, George Eustice, have also revealed the government will be putting the recently established trade and agriculture commission on a statutory footing with a new amendment to the agriculture bill.
“We are announcing today that it will be made a statutory body which will give independent advice on trade deals as they go through parliament,” they said in an article in the Mail on Sunday.
The move is a significant U-turn for the government, which had rejected Lord Curry’s amendment to the bill to strengthen the Commission’s role and legally ban any food that did not meet British standards in imports post Brexit.
The commission, on which the National Farmers Union and the Food and Drink Federation sit, will now be asked to produce an independent report on the impact on animal welfare and agriculture of each free trade deal the government signs after Brexit.
Their recommendations whether to accept or reject the deal will then be laid in parliament at the start of the 21-day scrutiny period under the terms of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act (CRAG) process.
Truss and Eustice also gave the clearest commitment yet to ban meat in the US from animals not raised to British standards. They said:
Chlorinated chicken and hormone-injected beef are already banned in the UK and we will not negotiate to remove that ban in a trade deal.
Updated
Tobias Ellwood also told Times Radio that Boris Johnson should put the government on a “war footing” in dealing with coronavirus because it was being “overwhelmed”. He said:
Our cabinet structure has not changed. It’s still the same peacetime tried-and-tested system, but it’s very risk averse. We should have moved onto a war footing with slicker decision-making and splitting policy creation versus operational delivery.
I’m afraid this was treated as if it was a terrorist attack or a flooding, where there was a Cobra, a national security council meeting, and then we made some plans and then we’ve tried to keep it going.
This is very different. It should be comparable to where we were in the Second World War, where you have an ongoing crisis, where the messaging is going to change quite regularly ...
We haven’t really ever moved to that structure, which is far more efficient in its decision making, separating the daily business of government. The consequence of that is that the bandwidth in Number 10 is just overwhelmed.
In an interview with Times Radio Tobias Ellwood, the chair of the Commons defence committee, said the government should outline a plan for the next six months. He said:
People need to know where they stand, where they are going to. We have probably about six months till the spring. A vaccine then emerges. How are we going to get through this difficult winter? We need to have some rules which are ongoing ... right the way up until the vaccine is there.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is being interviewed now on Times Radio.
Asked if he can give a firm assurance that schools will not close, he says yes.
Prof John Edmunds, the epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and a leading member of Sage, is being interviewed on Sky News now.
He says no test and trace system will be able to handle 100,000 cases per day.
That is why Sage called for lockdown in September.
Q: Sir Mark Walport said the R number is unlikely to come down as quickly as in the spring. (See 8.58am.) Do you agree?
Edmunds says he does agree. He says this lockdown is not as stringent as the first one.
He hopes that the lockdown won’t need to be extended beyond December. But he says he cannot say with any certainty what will happen.
Q: Should the person who leaked the story about this plan to the media on Friday be sacked?
Gove says that is a matter for the prime minister.
And that’s it. The Gove interview, and the Andrew Marr Show, is over.
Gove refuses to accept government was wrong to ignore Sage's call for lockdown in September
Q: Boris Johnson says the financial consequences of a second lockdown would be disastrous. What has changed?
Gove says the virus has proved to be more malignant than assumed.
Q: But the Sage warning on 21 September was clear. And in October you were told that cases and deaths were ahead of the worst case scenario. Do you accept you got it wrong and Starmer got it right?
No, says Gove.
He says ministers were advised that a regional approach was appropriate. Jonathan Van-Tam, the deputy chief medical adviser, said that.
He says Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical adviser, said last night there was no perfect time for a lockdown.
And it is right to governments to be reluctant to take measures like this, he says.
He says the UK government was not alone in going for a regional approach. France, Germany and almost every other European government was doing this, he says.
Q: But it is fairly clear you got something wrong?
Gove says, when this is over and people assess what happened, he is fairly certain the government will be seen to have got something wrong.
But you cannot be sure now, he says. He says at the end of the pandemic, a decision might look better than it does now.
He says you should not mark the cards in the middle of a game. Then he corrects himself - this is not a game, he says.
Q: Will routine operations have to be cancelled?
Gove says the government is having a lockdown to avoid the need for this.
Q: Will the Nightingale hospitals be used?
Yes, says Gove.
Q: Why could the government not find the money to extend the furlough scheme for Greater Manchester, but can find it now, now that your constituents in Surrey Heath are affected?
Gove says the offer to Greater Manchester went beyond the job subsidy. And he says this lockdown is more extensive.
Q: Steve Rotheram, the mayor of Liverpool city region, says workers in the south are valued more.
Glad that the Government have finally done the right thing and maintained the 80% furlough - not the 67% they were offering Tier 3 areas across the North.
— Steve Rotheram (@MetroMayorSteve) October 31, 2020
Now we know for sure that the Government thinks workers in the North were worth 13% less than those in the South. https://t.co/7ybFAXaM14
Gove says he does not accept that.
Gove suggests government would extend lockdown than close schools to make it more effective
Q: You might face a choice between closing schools, and ending the lockdown earlier, or keeping them open, and having to extend the lockdown. Which would you choose?
Gove says the government wants to keep schools open. He says he hopes the government won’t face this choice, but it does want to keep schools open, he says.
Andrew Marr is now interviewing Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister.
Asked if the lockdown may be extended, as Sir Jeremy Farrar suggested (see 9.31am), Gove says it is the government’s “fervent hope” that that won’t be necessary because the month-long lockdown will bring down R.
He says the government will review the situation before the end of November, to consider what regional restrictions might need to remain in place once the national lockdown ends.
Asked if the government will keep schools open, Gove says yes.
Starmer says no need for Corbyn's suspension to lead to Labour civil war
Q: Why has Jeremy Corbyn had the whip removed?
Starmer says he was very clear on Thursday that Labour needed to accept the findings of the report from the Equality and Human Rights Commission and apologise.
And he says he also said that people who tried to minimise the extent of antisemitism in the party were part of the problem.
He says Corbyn’s statement on Thursday suggested that is what Corbyn thought.
Q: But it was what Corbyn has always said.
Starmer says he was “very disappointed” by what Corbyn said. He would like Corbyn to reflect on what he said, apologise and move forward.
Q: What is your message to Corbyn supporters who feel hurt by this?
Starmer says he wants to unite the party. But he also made a solemn pledge to root out antisemitism. There is no need for a civil war in Labour, he says. He says he did not want what happened on Thursday to happen.
Q: Do you regret not speaking out against Corbyn when he was leader.
Starmer says he spoke out in shadow cabinet and in public.
Q: You were not aggressively challenging what was happening.
Starmer says on some issues he was very aggressively challenging the party. He says on this programme he called for the party to adopt in full the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition of antisemitism.
Q: Do you want Corbyn to stay in the Labour party?
Starmer says that question is inviting him to interfere in the disciplinary process. But he wants Corbyn to reflect on what he said. He says people in the Labour party think Corbyn is in the wrong place on this issue.
And that’s it. The Starmer interview is over.
Q: Is Mark Drakeford being irresponsible in Wales?
No, says Starmer.
Q: Drakeford says his lockdown is going to end on 9 November whatever.
Starmer says Drakeford was right to launch his lockdown early.
Starmer rejects union call for schools to close
Q: Will it be possible to get R below 1 with schools still open?
Starmer says it will be harder with the schools still open.
That is why he proposed a lockdown that could coincide with half term.
He says schools must stay open.
Teachers should be treated like NHS staff, and offered testing every week, he says.
Q: The National Education Union says schools should close during the lockdown?
Urgent press release
— Kevin Courtney #NEU💝NHS (@cyclingkev) October 31, 2020
National Education Union calls for schools and colleges to be closed during 4 week national lockdownhttps://t.co/Qt0sXmZvLR
Starmer says he does not agree with that.
He says the harm to children from prolonged absence from school, particularly disadvantaged children is considerable.
Starmer says lockdown should continue until R falls belows 1
Starmer says the lockdown should continue until the R number falls below 1.
And he says he would be willing to work with the government “in the national interest”.
Keir Starmer's interview with Andrew Marr
Sir Keir Starmer is being interviewed by the BBC’s Andrew Marr.
He confirms that Labour will vote for the national lockdown on Wednesday.
Sage member Jeremy Farrar says lockdown may need to be extended
Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome Trust and a member of Sage, has been speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr. He said the lockdown might have to go further.
Schools may need to close says Sir Jeremy Farrar:
— Joe Pike (@joepike) November 1, 2020
Schools staying open during lockdown 'may have to be revisited' if transmission in secondary schools continues to rise. #Marr
Sir Jeremy Farrar, govt scientific advisers, says if R rate fails to fall it would be 'much better' to extend it for a couple of weeks beyond December 2
— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 1, 2020
He tells @AndrewMarr9 that restrictions could then be relaxed over Christmas
UPDATE: This is what Farrar told Marr when asked if the national lockdown could be extended beyond 2 December, its planned end date.
I think it’s useful, I just don’t think we can become fixed on it. We don’t know what the situation is going to be like in the last week of November and the first week of December, we all hope that four weeks is going to be enough ...
[If infections, hospital admissions and deaths have not dropped sufficiently] it would be much better to extend this lockdown for another couple of weeks prior to the Christmas period - and then loosen the restrictions a little bit over Christmas so that people can meet up with their families.
Much better to do that than remove these restrictions and then have to impose even more draconian restrictions over Christmas or soon into the New Year.
Updated
Transport for London agrees £1.8bn bailout with government, without congestion charge zone extension
Transport for London (TfL) has secured a bailout from the government worth around £1.8bn, PA Media reports.
The capital’s transport body said the agreement will enable it to continue operating services until the end of March 2021.
The exact amount of money involved is subject to passenger revenue in the coming months.
TfL said: “Discussions on longer-term sustainable funding continue.”
Amendments to the congestion charge introduced in June as part of a previous bailout - a 30% increase in the fee and longer operating hours - will remain in place due to the new deal.
TfL said it would receive a “core amount of £1bn”, consisting of a £905m grant and £95m of borrowing.
The government was pushing for further measures that would have increased costs for Londoners, including a significant extension of the area covered by the congestion charge. It wanted it to cover all of London within the North and South Circular roads, incorporating a further 4m Londoners.
But Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, said he had seen off this proposal. He said:
These negotiations with government have been an appalling and totally unnecessary distraction at a time when every ounce of attention should have been focused on trying to slow the spread of Covid-19 and protecting jobs.
I am pleased that we have succeeded in killing off the very worst government proposals.
These proposals from the government would have hammered Londoners by massively expanding the congestion charge zone, scrapping free travel for older and younger Londoners and increasing TfL fares by more than RPI+1 [retail price inflation plus one percentage point]. I am determined that none of this will now happen.
This is not a perfect deal, but we fought hard to get to the best possible place.
The only reason TfL needs government support is because almost all our fares income has dried up since March, as Londoners have done the right thing.
NEW: We've now reached a TfL deal with the Government. Here's what it means for Londoners:
— Sadiq Khan (@SadiqKhan) November 1, 2020
✅ Free travel for under-18s & over-60s is protected
✅ Congestion Charge Zone will not be extended
✅ TfL fares won’t increase by more than what’s already agreedhttps://t.co/GMKAnSOeKy pic.twitter.com/dRFUZmdVQv
West Yorkshire council leaders 'frustrated and angry' by handling of lockdown announcement
Spare a thought for pubs in West Yorkshire who had spent Friday and Saturday desperately trying to find a way of serving “substantial meals” alongside booze in order to stay open under tier 3 restrictions.
Tier 3 – the “very high” risk category in England – was due to come into force on Monday in West Yorkshire, after the leaders capitulated to government on Thursday.
Last night’s press conference changed all that. Now tier 3 has been cancelled for West Yorkshire to make way for the national lockdown on Thursday.
No wonder local leaders are “angry and frustrated”. In a statement West Yorkshire council leaders say:
Following several days of intense discussions with ministers about the introduction of new restrictions in West Yorkshire, we are frustrated and angry about the government’s timing, handling and communications around the plans for a national lockdown.
Firstly, for our residents and businesses, we must clear up understandable confusion: the region will now NOT be moving into tier 3 (very high) measures on Monday as planned; we will remain in tier 2 (high) restrictions, and then follow the national measures from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December.
The residents and businesses of West Yorkshire had only just begun to prepare for tier 3 measures to hit on Monday, and they are now having to change their plans once again.
We have worked hard over the last few days to advocate for the people and businesses of West Yorkshire. It is imperative that government now honours the financial commitments made to the people and businesses of the region during these discussions in writing again now.
Updated
Q: The R number is going down. Did we really need a national lockdown?
Walport says the best way to nip the problem in the bud is to take firm action as quickly as possible.
Cases are rising across the country, he says.
It is good news that cases are starting to flatten in some parts of the country. But that takes time. There is a strong argument for controlling the numbers as quickly as possible, he says.
Q: What do you say to people who argue we should find a way of living with the virus instead?
Walport says scientists advise. It is for the politicians to take decisions. Everyone knows that lockdowns have negative consequences, like cancelled operations.
Politicians across Europe have been struggling with these decisions, he says.
But there is some good news. Treatment is better, so the mortality rate should be lower. Testing is available. And vaccines are coming along, he says.
He says Covid does not just affect the old. Long Covid can be devastating for young people too, he says.
He says he is “reasonably optimistic” that medical advances will bring this under control.
And that’s the Walport interview over.
Sir Mark Walport, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government who is now a member of Sage, is being interviewed by Sky’s Sophy Ridge now.
He says it is “definitely” the case that a lockdown like this is better late than never.
Asked how long it could last for, he says case numbers are unlikely to fall as quickly as they did in the first lockdown because the lockdown is not as strict. Schools are still open.
Q: So this lockdown could last longer than the first one?
Walport says that’s “obviously a possibility”.
Q: We’re not going to have a normal Christmas, are we?
Walport says the virus indifferent to what day of the week it is. Christmas is unlikely to be normal, he says.
I think the virus is sublimely indifferent as to what day of the week it is and indeed whether it’s Christmas or any other festivals, so it does seem a bit unlikely that it’s going to be a completely normal Christmas, that’s for sure.
Q: Could the second wave have been worse than the first wave?
“Undoubtedly”, says Walport, if the government had not taken action.
He says that, as case numbers go up, the models become more accurate.
Updated
Q: Will the extension of the furlough last as long as the lockdown continues?
Gove says it is foolish to predict what will happen, but the government will protect the economy.
With a virus this malignant, and with its capacity to move so quickly, it would be foolish to predict with absolute certainty what will happen in four weeks’ time, when over the course of the last two weeks its rate, its infectiousness and its malignancy have grown.
And so therefore of course we will review what requires to be done but we have a clear plan over the next four-week [period] to support the economy and to protect the NHS.
Q: Why did you not offer 80% wage support to Greater Manchester?
Gove says the delay in Greater Manchester in applying tier 3 has led to an increase in cases.
And he says that what is planned nationally now is stricter than the tier 3 regime applied in Greater Manchester.
And that’s it. Gove’s Sky interview is over.
Updated
Asked about care homes, Gove says the single biggest cause of infections in care homes was movements of people between them. That has been addressed by new protocols, he says.
He says testing is being increased.
And a new winter plan for care will make sure that people released from hospital into care homes are always in a safe environment.
Q: The fact that we are having another lockdown represents a failure of government strategy, doesn’t it?
Gove says he does not accept this. The “malignancy” of the virus is to blame, he says. He says all governments try to protect freedom.
He says the government is taking this step to save lives.
The PM reflected on this “deeply” before announcing it, he says. “We all did.” But they felt they had no alternative.
Q: In the first wave the lockdown was late. Why are we making the same mistake again?
Gove says Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, said last night there was non perfect time for a lockdown.
Q: The scientists wanted you to act more quickly.
Gove repeats the point about what Whitty said. And he says the government was told it was “perfectly reasonable” to adopt a regional approach. Other European governments were doing the same, he says.
Gove says national lockdown could be extended
Q: What is the exit strategy?
Gove says the government thinks the lockdown will bring R, the reproduction number, below 1.
But it will look at all of the data, he says.
He says people will call for particular restrictions to be lifted. But if there is not a powerful bundle of restrictions, then R may not be reduced sufficiently.
Q: Could the national lockdown be extended?
Yes, says Gove.
But he also says the government could revert to a regional approach.
We want to be in a position where we can - and I believe that this is likely to be the case - have an approach where if we bring down the rate of infection sufficiently we can reduce measures nationally and also reduce measures regionally.
Because the regional approach is one that, wherever possible, we want to take because again we recognise it may be the case in the future that having reduced R below 1, having reduced national restrictions, we may see a specific upsurge in specific areas which will require specific regional measures.
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Gove says the original projections about the spread of the virus underestimated it.
The situation has been “worse than any of us expected”, he says.
Q: How bad could things be this winter?
Gove says, if the government took no further action, hospital capacity would diminish. Hospitals would fill up. Operations would have to be cancelled. Then some people in hospital would have to be discharged.
By the first week of December, hospitals would be full.
The consequences would be “immoral”, he says. People who could benefit from treatment would not be able to get it.
Michael Gove's interview on Sky
Sky’s Sophy Ridge is interviewing Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister.
She starts by playing a clip of Gove saying in an interview two weeks ago that there would not be a circuit breaker lockdown.
Gove says no such lockdown was planned at the time.
David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, told Times Radio yesterday that he was not yet committed to voting in favour of the new lockdown.
David Davis MP to @TimesRadio: "I want parliament to make this decision and [MPs] to be properly briefed... this is a bigger decision than going to war from the point of view of many people in the country... we need to really be very clear about what our exit strategy is"
— Ross Kempsell (@rosskempsell) October 31, 2020
David Davis suggests to @TimesRadio some Tory MPs could vote against new lockdown measures. "We have got to see the data... the evidence... [the govt] has got to cross that rubicon" - says his vote isn't secure and neither are colleagues he's spoken to
— Ross Kempsell (@rosskempsell) October 31, 2020
MPs will vote on the lockdown on Wednesday. Given that Labour called for a “circuit breaker” lockdown of this kind almost three weeks ago, it is hard to imagine it voting against, which means there is no real chance of the vote being lost. But a large Tory revolt would undermine Johnson’s authority.
Here is a summary by my colleague Rebecca Ratcliffe of what the Sunday papers are saying about the new lockdown announcement.
And these are from John Redwood, another Conservative lockdown sceptic, yesterday and this morning.
Doesn’t a national lock down merely delay rather than stop the virus? Let’s concentrate on cures and limiting transmission whilst allowing businesses to stay open.
— John Redwood (@johnredwood) October 31, 2020
If the case for lock down is worry about NHS capacity why is the forecast for hospital admissions a huge range including fewer cases than the NHS managed earlier this year?
— John Redwood (@johnredwood) November 1, 2020
What is the exit strategy from national lock down?
— John Redwood (@johnredwood) November 1, 2020
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Sir Robert Syms, the Conservative MP for Poole, has been using Twitter to express his opposition to the new lockdown. Here are some of his tweets from last night.
I will vote against next week
— Sir Robert Syms MP (@RobertSyms) October 31, 2020
Parliament will be sitting it was not for first lockdown that means ministers will be under pressure to lift ASAP and I cannot see Govt leaving shops closed in December that will lead to massive closures if they miss all of Xmas .
— Sir Robert Syms MP (@RobertSyms) October 31, 2020
Scientists are like economists they do not have one view and the PM should way up the wider picture including economic impact
— Sir Robert Syms MP (@RobertSyms) October 31, 2020
I also agree growth through to end October will be robust which is why the lockdown is such a disaster !
— Sir Robert Syms MP (@RobertSyms) November 1, 2020
Syms also retweeted this, from the Times Radio presenter Matt Chorley.
💥💥💥💥
— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) October 31, 2020
A senior Tory MP and former minister gets in touch after seeing this thread:
“He’s on borrowed time. Totally inept.”
Johnson faces Tory backlash with England lockdown branded 'body blow to the people'
Well, you can’t say we weren’t warned. It’s not just that Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies, was urging Boris Johnson in September to impose a England-wide, “circuit breaker” lockdown. As long ago as in March Sage experts were saying that there might have to be multiple lockdowns. This is from a “consensus view” statement (pdf) by SPI-M-O, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, a Sage sub-committee. It was drafted on 16 March, a week before Johnson announced the first hard lockdown. SPI-M-O said:
It was agreed that the addition of both general social distancing and school closures to case isolation, household isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups would be likely to control the epidemic when kept in place for a long period. SPI-M-O agreed that this strategy should be followed as soon as practical, at least in the first instance.
It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity. These would need to be in place for at least most of a year. Under such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures.
As you know, Johnson announced the second England-wide lockdown last night. Here is our overnight story.
Today we will get the full reaction. Here are at least three groups whose responses will be critical.
1) Conservative MPs. Many of Johnson’s MPs were already unhappy with the restrictions in place, and Saturday’s announcement came as a shock. A backlash is already underway. This is from an article (paywall) that Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former cabinet minister and former party leader, has written for today’s Sunday Telegraph. He says:
The PM’s announcement of a month-long lockdown is a body blow to the British people. Just as the economy was picking up, even giving cause for optimism, we are now to impersonate the Grand Old Duke of York - giving in to the scientific advisers and marching England back into another nationwide lockdown ...
Let us be very clear. There has been much talk of circuit breakers, but what was announced on Saturday night was a business breaker. Nor is it likely to be limited to what four weeks.
2) Business. The government has announced that its furlough scheme, under which employees can get up to 80% of their salary, is being extended while the lockdown is in place. But will that be enough to avert a jobs crisis?
3) Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The three devolved administrations have already launched their own versions of a circuit breaker lockdown, ahead of England, despite, in Scotland and Wales, case numbers being lower. But at the time they did not get the financial support now being made available on a UK-wide basis, and they are seeking assurances that they will not lose out if they start to lift their own restrictions ahead of England.
Here is the agenda for the day.
8.30am: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is interviewed on Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday. Other interviewees include Sir Mark Walport, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government, and Dame Carolyn Fairbairn, director general of the CBI.
9am: Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, is interviewed on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show. Other interviewees include Gove and Sir Jeremy Farrar, head of the Wellcome Trust and a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies (Sage).
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
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