Early evening summary
- A senior health official has said that, when the English lockdown ends on 2 December, restrictions will have to be tighter than they were before. The government is planning on the basis that after that date England will return to the three-tier system in place before the lockdown started. At a news conference in Downing Street, where she was speaking alongside Matt Hancock, health secretary, Dr Susan Hopkins, a deputy director of Public Health England and medical adviser to NHS test and trace, said that in December the three-tier system in England would have to be strengthened. The pre-lockdown version was not tough enough, she suggested. (See 5.52pm.
- Hopkins has said that, if the lockdown is working, coronavirus cases in England should start declining this week. Speaking at the press conference she said:
We expect if the lockdown is working ... that we will start to see cases decline over the next week.
We expect it will be longer to see hospital admissions, another week or so, but I think as long as we start seeing cases decline then we can start making a judgment about what are the right decisions that we make and what the opening up decisions that happen on 2 December.
Hancock said that over the last week UK Covid case numbers have been going up, rising from an average of 22,443 per day a week ago to 25,329 per day now. (See 5.08pm.) Today’s figures have still not yet been posted on the government’s dashboard.
That’s all from me for today. But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.
Updated
What Hopkins said about need for English tier restrictions to be strengthened after lockdown
Here is the full quote from Dr Susan Hopkins, a deputy director of Public Health England and medical adviser to NHS test and trace, when she said that after lockdown the restrictions in force under the three-tier system in England would have to be strengthened. (See 5.32pm.) She said:
We have recognised that the tiering of the country has had a different effect in each area.
Tier 3, and especially tier 3 plus in the north, has had an effect in reducing the numbers of cases in the north-west and we can see the north-west’s declining number of cases now.
Tier 2 seems to hold in some areas and not so well in others, and so really it depends on how fast transmission is occurring and how well the individuals in the population are taking that advice in.
We see very little effect from tier 1 and I think when we look at what tiers may be there in the future we will have to think about strengthening them in order to get us through the winter months until the vaccine is available for everyone.
This is essentially what a committee of Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies, was saying in a “consensus statement” (pdf) that was drafted two weeks ago and released at the end of last week under the Sage transparency process. There is a summary of it here.
Q: GP numbers have decreased, but they are being asked to do more work than before.
Hancock says he is grateful to GPs for all the work they are doing.
He says he is glad that more appointments are being done over the phone, or by video.
But that does not lift the whole burden. Hopefully there will be a Covid vaccination programme ready to go. He has asked the NHS to be ready for this from 1 December, the earliest possible date this could happen, although he expects it to start early next year.
Van-Tam says this vaccination programme will be “the biggest and most important thing” the NHS has done for a very long time.
He understands the pressures, he says. But he expects doctors to put in extraordinary efforts to roll this out. This is a big opportunity to change the way the pandemic roles out. It could considerably change how the late spring and the summer turns out.
Hancock says he understands the pressures on GPs and other healthcare workers. And he knows there are uncertainties that make planning harder. But planning is still essential, he says.
And that’s it. The briefing is over.
Q: Will you commit to giving health workers a pay rise?
Hancock says he will not pre-judge the outcomes of the pay review process.
Tier system may need to be strengthened after lockdown, health chief says
Q: SPI-M-O, the Sage sub group, has said R will go up if you just go back to what was in place before the lockdown. So what are you going to do?
Hancock says that is not what Sage says. Sage does not object to a tiered system; it is about what is in each tier.
Hopkins says different tiers have had different effects. Tier 3, and especially tier 3 plus, has worked.
Tier 2 has worked in some areas, but not others, she says.
But tier 1 has not worked.
She says a strengthened tier system may be needed.
Q: The Moderna vaccine always looked a good bet. Why did we not have some already?
Hancock says there was not a stock of this vaccine.
He says it is important to have several options, as the UK has because it has a portfolio of orders.
Van-Tam says he feels more encouraged in the light of the Moderna news today about mRNA vaccines working.
He says it is “brilliant news”. It is the second penalty going into the net.
It’s the second penalty now, that’s also gone into the back of the net. So we’re starting to feel in a better position.
Updated
Lockdown should lead to Covid cases in England falling this week, says health chief
Q: Will a national lockdown be extended beyond 2 December if cases are still rising?
Hancock says it is too early to know what will happen.
But most test results are from around the time the lockdown came in.
It is too early to tell if the lockdown is working, he says.
Hopkins says the key issue is for cases to be falling.
She says she expects to start seeing cases declining over the coming week.
Bethany from Wandsworth asks the first question.
Q: Will people who are shielding, but who are not over 65, get priority for the vaccine?
Hancock says an official body, the Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisations, advises him on who should get priority, based on clinical reasons.
He says they have come up with an interim list. Their judgment takes into account the needs of people who are shielding.
Van-Tam says the current recommendations are provisional. He says that is because full data is not available.
The clinically extremely vulnerable are on the priority list, even the young, going down right to the age of 18, he says.
Updated
We’re now at the chemistry lesson part of the briefing; Hopkins is showing a video illustrating how lateral flow tests work.
Hopkins is speaking now.
She says four lateral flow tests have been moved into field trials.
In Liverpool one test is being used on people without symptoms. And it is proving very accurate, she says. He says it has a false positive rate of less than five per thousand.
Almost 100,000 people have been tested in Liverpool, she says. And around 700 people have been detected as positive who would not otherwise have been detected.
Hancock says UK has secured 5m doses of Moderna vaccine
Hancock says the Moderna results today are encouraging.
But he stresses that these are preliminary results. And the vaccine would not be available until next spring, he says.
But he says the UK has today secured 5m doses of this vaccine.
Hancock is now talking about the expansion of testing being rolled out.
He says he is pleased a pilot that will allow relatives to visit care homes has just started.
Mass testing will be rolled out further too, he says.
He says 83 local authorities have signed up to receive regular batches of lateral flow tests.
Hancock says cases, hospitalisations and deaths all still rising
Hancock is starting now.
He says he will start with the latest figures.
He says cases are now running at the rate of 25,329 per day, compared with 22,443 cases per day a week ago. These are rolling average figures
He says there 14,915 patients in hospital with coronavirus in the UK today, up from 13,025.
And he says 168 new deaths were reported yesterday. That means over the last week there have been an average of 413 deaths per day, upt from 332 the previous week.
Matt Hancock's press conference
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is about to hold a press conference at No 10.
He will be joined by Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, the deputy chief medical officer for England, and Dr Susan Hopkins, a deputy director at Public Health England and medical adviser to NHS test and trace.
Updated
There have been 331 further coronavirus cases in Northern Ireland, the Department of Health there reports on its dashboard. That is well down on the totals for last Monday (471) and for the Monday before, (493).
But there have been 14 further deaths. That is up on the equivalent figures for last Monday (10) and for the Monday before (8).
This chart shows how the number of positive cases has been falling since mid-October, when Northern Ireland entered its lockdown.
According to a poll for Savanta ComRes, only 15% of Britons say they would be “reluctant” to get a coronavirus vaccine.
Some 57% of people say they would be “keen” to have, while the rest are somewhere in the middle, or don’t know.
This is from Carl Baker, a researcher in the House of Commons library specialising in health and mapping.
New: how have COVID-19 rates changed over the last week in England's small areas? Green arrows show falls, purple shows rises, and bigger arrows represent bigger changes.
— Carl Baker (@carlbaker) November 16, 2020
Each arrow on this map represents an MSOA with a population of 7-10k. They are grouped by counties etc. pic.twitter.com/Ke5i7cMLsa
Public Health Wales has recorded 892 further coronavirus cases. That is marginally down on the total for last Monday, 931, but almost half the total for the Monday the week before, 1,646.
And two further deaths have been recorded. On Monday last week the total was eight.
This chart, from the Public Health Wales dashboard, shows how the number of positive cases per day is declining.
Valerie Vaz, the shadow leader of the Commons, says that Rees-Mogg has until now opposed making it easier for MPs to participate virtually in proceedings. In so doing, he is preventing them from doing their jobs, she says.
She also says Rees-Mogg should allow remote voting in the Commons. Rees-Mogg argues that in the Lords this has not worked. But the system only broke down once, she says. She says now the Lords are using remote voting successfully.
Rees-Mogg say, if MPs are not shielding, and if they have a Covid-secure workplace, they should be expected to go to work.
In response to the Conservative MP John Baron, who tabled the Commons urgent question, Rees-Mogg says he wants to allow further virtual participation in the Commons. But he says he will not be able to allow unlimited virtual participation.
Rees-Mogg confirms that some MPs will be allowed to participate virtually in debates
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, is responding to an urgent question now about MPs participating in debates remotely.
Under the current rules, MPs can ask questions during statements and questions remotely, but they cannot take part in debates on legislation remotely.
Rees-Mogg says the arrangements have remained under review.
He also says MPs should follow the letter and the spirit of public health advice.
MPs are just the same as other key workers, he says.
Rees-Mogg says he was persuaded of the need to go further after the Conservative MP Tracey Crouch raised this last week. She is having to shield because she is being treated for cancer, and she said it was unfair she was being excluded from debates.
He says, in line with government advice that the extremely clinically vulnerable should not go into work, he will ask the Commons authorities to find a solution so that there can be further Commons participation from MPs who are shielding.
He says he will bring a motion to the Commons to allow MPs to vote to authorise the new procedures.
Updated
A landmark £1.2bn legal battle over businesses’ ability to claim on insurance for coronavirus-related disruption has begun at the UK’s highest court, PA Media reports.
The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) earlier this year brought a test case, which could affect around 370,000 businesses, over the wording of business interruption insurance policies, which some insurers argued did not cover the Covid-19 pandemic.
The City watchdog previously said it was bringing the legal action following “widespread concern” over “the lack of clarity and certainty” for businesses seeking to cover substantial losses incurred by the pandemic and subsequent national lockdown.
In September, the high court ruled on several “lead” insurance policies issued by eight separate insurers largely in favour of the FCA, which welcomed the judgment as “a significant step in resolving the uncertainty being faced by policyholders”.
The regulator, however, argues the judgment “paved the way for many insurance policies to pay indemnities on Covid-19 business interruption claims”, but also “took something away with one hand after giving more substantially and in detail with the other”.
Six of the insurers - Arch, Argenta, Hiscox, MS Amlin, QBE and RSA - are also appealing against aspects of the high court’s ruling, as is the Hiscox Action Group, which represents around 400 businesses insured by Hiscox.
The supreme court is this week hearing “leapfrog” appeals - which have bypassed the court of appeal - in a case which could have implications for hundreds of thousands of businesses affected by coronavirus.
Boris Johnson is due to hold a meeting today with Conservative MPs from the Northern Research Group (NRG), made up of backbenchers representing constituencies in the north of England.
Speaking ahead of the meeting, Jake Berry, head of the group, said they would be highlighting three priorities. He said:
The first is that we need a clear route out of lockdown.
Many northern communities have been in some form of lockdown since March, with no time off for good behaviour. We need a way out of lockdown for northern people in northern businesses.
Berry said the group would be also calling for a post-Covid recovery plan for the north and for “smaller infrastructure” projects to be signed off by ministers.
Updated
In the Daily Mail today Simon Walters has a long feature about the No 10 internal feuding that led to the departure of Dominic Cummings last week. Like most of these articles, it is full of remarkable, gossipy colour. But unlike most others, it does include an on-the-record quote from Cummings himself. Referring to the PM’s partner, Carrie Symonds, Cummings said: “I’ve nothing bad to say about Carrie, I wish her well.”
That might seem innocuous, or charitable even, but as Alex Wickham pointed out this morning in his London Playbook briefing, this was a Vote Leave in-joke. The FT’s George Parker has dug out the reference that explains it.
Dominic Cummings tells Simon Walters in @DailyMailUK today: “I’ve nothing bad to say about Carrie, I wish her well.” This from @ShippersUnbound book All Out War is interesting in that regard pic.twitter.com/ve0xM8nojQ
— George Parker (@GeorgeWParker) November 16, 2020
Updated
NHS England has recorded a further 190 coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here.
Last Monday the equivalent figure was 167, and two weeks ago today the equivalent figure was 118.
Scottish Labour’s executive committee has rejected proposals for nearly all its Holyrood regional lists to be led by women after the party’s lawyers ruled it would be illegal.
In a defeat for Richard Leonard, the Scottish leader, and his supporters, the party’s executive (SEC) has adopted a scheme pushed by the Scottish TUC called “step aside brother” where male candidates agree a woman takes the top slot in an election, but made it voluntary.
Labour’s governance unit in London warned the Scottish party that since its gender balance is reasonably good, discriminatory measures to increase women’s representation were likely to be unlawful. The UK party has had similar problems with all-women shortlists in parts of England.
The disagreement on how to select Labour’s list candidates for next May’s Holyrood election had significant ramifications, and exposed tensions over how the party supports male MSPs with other protected characteristics such as race and disability.
The party’s dire polling, putting it at as low as 12%, implies that one moderate male MSP who has ADHD, Daniel Johnson, might struggle to hold on to his Edinburgh Southern constituency seat, and would need to win a Holyrood place via list votes. Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour’s only BAME MSP, would have to take a lower place in the list rankings even if he was Glasgow region’s most popular candidate.
Now Labour members will be balloted to rank candidates in order of popularity, with candidates then zipped by gender, ordered male-female or female-male depending on which candidate tops the list. As leader, Leonard was already guaranteed the top slot in central Scotland, regardless of which policy was agreed.
Updated
More than 50 pupils at one of England’s top boarding schools have tested positive for Covid-19.
Sedbergh school in eastern Cumbria said that 53 senior students in four different boarding houses had confirmed cases.
“The vast majority were asymptomatic, and we must therefore assume that a number of pupils across the school have Covid-19,” the principal, Andrew Fleck, wrote in a letter to parents on Monday.
Mobile testing units would test all students and staff on Tuesday and Wednesday, the principal said. Those who test positive will be asked to travel home and isolate for 10 days.
South Lakes MP Tim Farron and local Liberal Democrat councillors have asked for testing to be offered to everyone in Sedbergh following the outbreak.
Local district councillor Suzie Pye said:
Sedbergh school is a massive part of the town and many people employed there live in our community, so there is a very strong case in offering a test to any local resident who would like one. We must act quickly to protect local people and get this under control.
Updated
No 10 rejects claims PM having to self-isolate because he ignored Covid safety rules
Much of the No 10 lobby briefing was taken up with questions about Boris Johnson’s self-isolation regime at No 10, and whether or not he’s been observing social distancing properly. Here are the main points.
- Johnson will still be working from his No 10 office, even though he has to self-isolate, the PM’s spokesman said. The spokesman said Johnson was able to access his office from his No 10 flat without having to pass through areas of the building that would bring him into contact with other people.
- The spokesman claimed that social distancing was observed at the No 10 meeting last week leading to the PM’s self-isolation and that Downing Street was a Covid-secure workplace. The spokesman said:
Social distancing was observed at the meeting. It is also the case that No 10 is a Covid-secure workplace.
We take every possible step to ensure that hand sanitiser is made available to people as soon as they arrive at the building and it is available throughout the building as you travel through it.
Asked about the photograph showing Johnson with Lee Anderson, the MP who subsequently tested positive, which clearly shows they were not standing 2 metres apart, the spokesman said: “They are stood side-by-side, rather than face-to-face.”
Here’s the PM’s meeting with Lee Anderson on Thursday, before the MP tested positive for Covid-19. pic.twitter.com/lq2GZsrrBs
— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) November 15, 2020
- The spokesman said that Johnson intended to take part in PMQs virtually on Wednesday, but that this had to be agreed with the Commons authorities.
- The spokesman said that five MPs were at the meeting with Johnson and Anderson and had been told to self-isolate. They are: Katherine Fletcher, Andy Carter, Lia Nici, Brendan Clarke-Smith and Chris Clarkson. Two political aides were also present. The spokesman did not say who they were, but suggested they were not Lee Cain or Dominic Cummings, the two advisers who quit at the end of last week.
- The spokesman would not say whether Carrie Symonds, the PM’s partner, was currently staying in the flat where Johnson is self-isolating.
- The spokesman was unable to say whether the PM was getting a test. But he said he had had an antibody test in the past. Today Johnson said he was “bursting with antibodies”. (See 11.44am.)
- The spokesman said Johnson addressed all No 10 staff on Zoom this morning. He thanked civil servants and political aides for all their hard work, the spokesman said. Johnson also told them that the ambition of this government was absolutely undimmed and if anything growing the whole time, the spokesman said. He said it would focus on two priorities: tackling coronavirus and the levelling up agenda.
Updated
Moderna says it hopes to supply 'substantial quantities' of its vaccine to UK
Dr Stephen Hoge, president of Moderna, told the World at One that he hoped his firm would be able to supply “substantial quantities” of its coronavirus vaccine to the UK. Interim trials suggest it is almost 95% effective.
Hoge confirmed that his firm’s vaccine is not one of the six pre-ordered by the UK (see 1.22pm). But he went on:
But as your government disclosed and as we’ve said, we’re in advanced discussions and looking forward to being able to supply substantial quantities of the vaccine to the UK government for use in the United Kingdom.
Pressed on whether the roll-out could be done quickly, he replied:
It depends a little on concluding those negotiations. I don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves. But we do have the ability to supply in the early part of next year and certainly we hope substantial quantities by the spring.
Details of 350m vaccines ordered in advance by UK government
The government says it has already secured access to to 350m vaccine doses by putting in advance orders for several that are in development. Here are the figures, from a BEIS briefing, showing what those orders are.
100m doses of University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine (in phase 3 clinical trials)
40m doses of BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine (in phase 3 clinical trials)
60m doses of Novavax vaccine (in phase 3 clinical trials)
60m doses of Valneva vaccine (in pre-clinical trials)
60m doses of GSK/Sanofi Pasteur vaccine (in phase 1 clinical trials)
30m doses of Janssen vaccine (in phase 2 clinical trials)
Updated
Government says it is in 'advanced discussions' with Moderna about getting its vaccine
The UK government has said it is in “advanced discussion” with Moderna to obtain its vaccine, which an interim analysis has shown to be almost 95% effective.
Commenting on the development, a UK government spokesperson said:
The news from Moderna appears to be good and represents another significant step towards finding an effective Covid-19 vaccine. As part of the ongoing work of the vaccines taskforce, the government is in advanced discussions with Moderna to ensure UK access to their vaccine as part of the wider UK portfolio.
Moderna are currently scaling up their European supply chain which means these doses would become available in spring 2021 in the UK at the earliest.
To date, the UK government has secured early access to 350m vaccines doses through agreements with six separate vaccine developers. This includes 40m doses of Pfizer/BioNTech’s vaccine, which is based on the same platform as Moderna’s vaccine and if approved by the medicines regulator, is expected to begin delivery as early as December 2020.
Further Northern Ireland restrictions 'more likely than not' in December, says health chief
Northern Ireland will probably need additional coronavirus restrictions before Christmas, according to health officials, raising questions about a plan to ease restrictions this week.
The region’s chief scientific officer, Michael McBride, said today it was “more likely than not” authorities would recommend a fresh clampdown in mid-December.
Restrictions imposed last month curbed the pandemic but the rate of decline has slowed, risking a rebound.
McBride’s comments put fresh scrutiny on a decision to let hairdressers, cafes and other types of non-essential businesses reopen on Friday.
It was taken last week after bitter deadlock in the Stormont executive, with the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) pushing for greater easing while Sinn Féin and others parties in the power-sharing government sought to extend restrictions.
The health minister, Robin Swann, of the Ulster Unionist party (UUP) has voiced concern that Northern Ireland’s hospitals may be overwhelmed.
Updated
Sturgeon says 'stubbornly high' Covid rates explain why west of Scotland facing tougher restrictions
Nicola Sturgeon has indicated the Scottish government is likely to impose the toughest Covid controls on large parts of western Scotland later this week, including Glasgow and Lanarkshire.
The first minister said that while Covid infection rates were no longer climbing as fast in western Scotland, they remained “stubbornly high” in many areas, which was worrying.
A leaked Scottish Retail Consortium briefing said 12 councils across the west of Scotland, and Stirling in central Scotland, could be put in tier 4 from 6am on Friday morning. (See 11.20am.) Ministers may also make travel restrictions legally enforceable by police.
Sturgeon confirmed a final decision would be made by the Scottish government’s cabinet on Tuesday morning, with an announcement in Holyrood due later. Speaking at her briefing she said:
We’re talking about the west of Scotland in particular; the areas which give us the most concern would be the council areas within the Greater Glasgow and Clyde health board [and] North and South Lanarkshire.
She said there were two arguments for imposing the tightest controls: preventing an area’s hospitals being overwhelmed when they needed to tackle a surge in other winter illnesses; and also ensuring the virus was suppressed enough to allow restrictions to be eased for Christmas.
Sturgeon urged people to observe the rules; that would make it more likely the old and vulnerable would survive long enough for vaccines and other treatments to be available. “The end is not yet with us, but we can see hope on the horizon now,” she said.
The Welsh health minister, Vaughan Gething, has said the coronavirus rate in Wales is continuing to fall following the country’s 17-day “firebreak” lockdown.
Gething said the rate for Wales is 160 per 100,000 people – down by 70 on this time last week.
Merthyr Tydfil, which had the highest rates in the UK just over a week ago, has now halved its rates to around 330 cases per 100,000 people, the health minister said.
But Gething said the country was still heading toward another “large peak” of deaths this winter. He said in the first two weeks of November Public Health Wales recorded more than 250 deaths from coronavirus.
Asked about images of people queuing outside shops, Gething said it was “concerning” that some people seemed to be forgetting social distancing and warned that the downward trend could easily be reversed.
Gething said it was too soon to say what Christmas would look like but warned: “It won’t be like normal”.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is giving her coronavirus briefing now. She starts with the latest figures.
Scotland has recorded 717 further positive cases. That is down from 912 last Monday.
There are 1,227 people in hospital, Sturgeon says. That is down 14 from yesterday, she says. On Monday last week the figure was 1,226.
And Sturgeon says 36 deaths were recorded on Saturday and six within the last 24 hours. But she stresses that the death numbers are always low at the weekend because registration officers are closed.
The race for a coronavirus vaccine has received another shot in the arm with the US biotech firm Moderna becoming the latest to reveal impressive results from phase 3 trials of its jab, my colleague Ian Sample reports.
Sunak fails to deny Treasury considering charging drivers to use roads
Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has failed to deny a report saying the Treasury is considering charging people to use roads to compensate for the loss of revenue as people switch to electric vehicles, which do not require people to pay fuel duty.
According to a story in today’s Times (paywall), in the long run the replacement of diesel and petrol vehicles could cost the government up to £40bn a year. Sunak is said to be “very interested” in road pricing (ie, charging drivers to use the roads) as an alternative.
Asked about this by Sky News this morning, Sunak just said: “Speculation that people might see - I would not comment on future fiscal policy.”
Sunak was speaking on a visit to mark the opening of the process to allow places in England to bid for the right to be a freeport.
In their Times story Steven Swinford, Graeme Paton and Oliver Wright report:
Mr Sunak is said to be “very interested” in the idea of a national road pricing scheme despite concerns in the Treasury about the cost of the green agenda, including that revenues from fuel duty, one of the government’s largest revenue earners, are set to vanish.
A government source said that the issue was “increasingly pressing”, adding that the Treasury had drawn up an analysis outlining potential options for a national road pricing scheme. The source said that a scheme was not “imminent” but that plans were being developed as the government considered how to hit its target of reducing emissions to net zero by 2050.
The rise in popularity of electric cars could leave the Treasury with a £40bn funding gap.
Updated
Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, has said soldiers are now training care home staff in Liverpool to enable them to carry out coronavirus tests. Speaking on a visit to a testing centre in Liverpool, he said:
In some areas we want to expand this as much as possible so today you’ll see carers from care homes coming in, being taught how to administer these tests, being able to then take the test to the care homes and delivering on behalf of both the residents but also the relatives so that people can try and at least have some visits or indeed get back to normal.
The Conservative MP Katherine Fletcher, who represents South Ribble, does not seem to have tweeted directly about self-isolating (see 11.29am), but she has retweeted the PM’s video message.
— Katherine Fletcher MP (@K_Fletcher_MP) November 16, 2020
This is the message in which Boris Johnson says he is “bursting with antibodies”. Johnsonologists may find this phrase familiar, because in the past he has reportedly boasted about other things he is bursting with too, according to Sonia Purnell, author of what is probably the most perceptive biography of him. Being a blog with a family readership, I won’t say more, but you can find the quote here.
Updated
Four more Tory MPs self-isolating after No 10 meeting with Covid-positive colleague
The four other Conservative MPs present at the meeting last week with Boris Johnson and Lee Anderson, the Tory who has subsequently tested positive, are also self-isolating.
According to the BBC, they are: Katherine Fletcher, Andy Carter, Lia Nici and Brendan Clarke-Smith.
From Lia Nici, MP for Grimsby
I have been contacted by NHS Test and Trace following a work meeting last week with Lee Anderson MP and the Prime Minister.
— Lia Nici (@lia_nici) November 16, 2020
As a result I will be self-isolating in line with the rules.
I currently have no symptoms and will be working from home
From Andy Carter, MP for Warrington South
Yes, I had a call from test and trace yesterday following a work meeting at 10 Downing Street last Thursday. In line with the rules I am self isolating. https://t.co/IZLWwqBytO
— Andy Carter MP (@MrAndy_Carter) November 16, 2020
From Brendan Clarke-Smith
In the words of Patrick Swayze... “Ditto” https://t.co/kxR3vEI6Vj
— Brendan Clarke-Smith MP #StayAlert (@Bren4Bassetlaw) November 16, 2020
Updated
12 Scottish council areas expected to face toughest restrictions from Friday
Residents in a dozen Scottish council areas, including Glasgow, Stirling and Inverclyde, face a two-week lockdown from later this week after the failure of Scottish government efforts to suppress Covid-19 across the country.
Business leaders were warned on Friday the 12 highly-populated areas were likely to be put at the highest level, tier 4 of the Scottish government’s Covid restrictions, from 6am on Friday morning.
They would be the first areas in Scotland to enter tier 4 since the tier system was introduced last month. The current levels for all parts of Scotland are here.
Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, is due to announce the next set of restrictions on Tuesday. The EIS, Scotland’s largest teachers union, is surveying its members on whether they would support industrial action if schools in tier 4 areas are told to remain open.
According to a leaked briefing from the Scottish Retail Consortium, the councils identified are: Glasgow City, East Ayrshire, South Ayrshire, North Ayrshire, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, West Dunbartonshire, East Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, Inverclyde and Stirling.
Tier 4 controls are the most onerous in the Scottish government’s armoury. Although not as severe as the full lockdown imposed in March, which included the closure of schools, universities, businesses and all non-essential shops, it will lead to significant restrictions.
The SRC briefing note revealed that Fiona Hyslop, the Scottish economy secretary, had rejected its appeals to allow shops to remain open in tier 4 areas despite the significance of Christmas sales for many retailers.
Takeaway restaurants and coffee shops, and home deliveries, would still be permitted but sit-down meals and drinks would be banned. It confirmed ministers are considering legally-enforceable controls on travel in affected areas.
Larry Flanagan, general secretary of the EIS, told BBC Radio Scotland this morning that his members wanted to switch to remote learning in tier 4 areas. He said:
Glasgow has 90 out of the top 100 Covid infection hot spots. So in schools in those catchment areas, we think you have to look seriously at closing them as part of the community mitigation to drive down infection levels.
Our default position is we should be looking at remote learning at level 4, but given the Scottish parliament has voted against that, we want at the very least to look at individual schools to see what action should be taken.
Updated
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has been tweeting about the UK-EU trade talks that have resumed this week. He says the EU is “determined, patient [and] respectful”.
🇪🇺🇬🇧 The @vonderleyen @EU_Commission negotiating team is continuing negotiations in Brussels this week w/ @DavidGHFrost & team.
— Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) November 16, 2020
With @Europarl_EN & all Member States, we remain determined, patient, respectful.
We want our future cooperation to be open but fair in all areas. pic.twitter.com/l54suVhY0I
As Daniel Boffey reports, Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, has said that if a deal is to be struck, it will have to happen within the next week to 10 days.
Simon Usherwood, an academic specialising in Brexit, has produced this chart summarising what he sees as Boris Johnson’s options as the talks reach their climax.
A quick stab at unpacking Johnson's choice this week
— Simon Usherwood (@Usherwood) November 16, 2020
Short version: there are no unambiguously 'good' options, just a variety of major downsides, which partly explains why he's not decided yet
PDF: https://t.co/ig6q2h5Jey pic.twitter.com/tibzFtEEFT
In an interview with BBC Breakfast this morning Dr Mary Ramsey, head of immunisation at Public Health England, said that around half the population would have to get vaccinated for the vaccine to have a real impact on the spread of coronavirus.
But she said the vaccine would save lives as soon as it was used, because it would protect the most vulnerable. She explained that its wider impact would depend on whether it just stopped people getting ill from the virus, or whether it stopped the transmission of the virus too. She said:
There is two ways that you could use the vaccine and the one we’re going for is to actually try and prevent people having serious disease and dying of this terrible infection.
We’re going to target people who are at highest risk, so we should very quickly see an impact in the numbers of deaths that are happening - it will depend a bit on what the background rate is at that time.
But if we’re in a high-incidence period, and we vaccinate the people at highest risk, we will begin to see an impact on deaths and hospitalisations quite quickly because we’re going to go for those people who are most likely to end up ... in those situations.
Later on, if it turns out that the vaccine interrupts transmission then we may give it to a wider group of people. And then we really need to get maybe half the population vaccinated to really see an impact on spread within communities.
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On the Today programme this morning Prof Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London, said that even though Boris Johnson has had coronavirus, it was probably “sensible” that the rules still required him to self-isolate after being in contract with someone testing positive.
He said that even though the number of confirmed cases globally of someone getting coronavirus twice was 25 plus, which seems very low, “most of us think the rate of reinfection is quite a lot higher than that, but not enormous”.
He went on:
My bottom line is not to be alarmist because whatever the risk is, it is low.
My sense from some of our data and other people’s data is that it’s the people who’ve made the poorest and most negligible antibody response the first time round who are most at risk of reinfection.
So that’s maybe 10% of everybody out there who’s been infected in the first wave.
Summing up, he went on:
If we’ve learnt anything since the beginning of 2020, it’s that this is an incredibly infectious and scary virus and you can’t take it too seriously.
So all the things that we know about - using masks, well-ventilated work spaces - following those rules really matter. And if you’ve got one take-home message from a reinfection discussion, it’s not to be blasé because you’ve had it or you think you’ve had it.
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Hancock rejects claims Covid jobs and spending decisions evidence of Tory 'chumocracy'
In his early morning interview Matt Hancock, the health secretary, also rejected claims that the government was favouring Tories when it came to awarding contracts and making appointments as part of its multi-billion anti-Covid programmes.
These claims have been circulating for some time, but they have been given particular prominence by a report in the Sunday Times (paywall) yesterday and a similar investigation by the Guardian. It’s here.
Both reports have said that what has been happening amounts to government by “chumocracy”.
But Hancock dismissed the idea that the government was favouring its political allies. He told Times Radio:
We’ve brought in an extraordinary broad range of companies and many of them who haven’t been working with government before because we haven’t had a pandemic of this scale before ...
In this pandemic we’ve completely put aside politics, it’s all about what can we do to keep people safe and get the country back on its feet ...
We’ve brought in people from all across the country to help with this national effort - some of them I knew before, some of them I didn’t. That’s the nature of what happens when you bring in a huge range of people to help with what has been a massive challenge.
And if you note down all the ones where there were previous contacts and don’t note down all the ones where there weren’t then of course you can give that sort of impression but it’s not a fair or accurate reflection of what went on.
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Hancock more cautious than Johnson about prospect of English lockdown ending on 2 December
In a message to Tory MPs yesterday Boris Johnson struck a very upbeat note about the prospect of the lockdown ending on 2 December. He said he was “more confident than ever that we will end these exceptional measures on [2 December] and continue to pummel Covid into submission”.
But Matt Hancock was much more cautious when asked about this on the Today programme this morning. Asked by Nick Robinson if the lockdown in England would effectively continue after 2 December, but just under a different name, Hancock replied:
You tempt me, but it is too early to say I’m afraid.
We’ve seen in the last week that there is still a very high number of cases but we do absolutely want to come out of this national lockdown.
That is our goal, everybody has a part to play in making that happen of course, following the social distancing rules and isolating when you need to, which is the critical thing.
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Hancock says more testing should allow care home visits for all residents by Christmas
Good morning. This is meant to be day one of the post-Cummings No 10 relaunch - they sent out a news release last night saying Boris Johnson would “make a series of critical announcements over the next couple of weeks that will be a clear signal of his ongoing ambitions for the United Kingdom” - but of course it was announced last night that he now has to self-isolate, after a meeting with Tory MPs, one of whom tested positive.
He has posted a video about this on Twitter this morning.
Hi folks, I’ve been instructed by our NHS Test & Trace scheme to self-isolate for two weeks, after being in contact with someone with Covid-19.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) November 16, 2020
I’m in good health and have no symptoms, and will continue to lead on our response to the virus & our plans to #BuildBackBetter pic.twitter.com/yNgIme8lOz
And here is our story.
Last week we were told that Johnson was planning to hold a press conference every Monday. But he won’t be appearing this afternoon, and instead Matt Hancock, the health secretary, will be at the lectern in Downing Street.
This morning Hancock has been doing the media interview round, primarily to promote the news that two megalabs will open early next year, which will eventually add an extra 600,000 a day to the government’s testing capacity. That would more than double the UK’s testing capacity.
In an interview with BBC Breakfast, Hancock also said he wanted to extend the use of testing for relatives of people in care homes in England so that by Christmas every resident can get a visit from a loved one. He said:
Our goal is to ensure that we have the testing available in every care home by Christmas - to make sure that people can take a test and therefore see their loved ones safely, that is the goal.
We’re working closely with the social care sector to try to make that happen.
We’ve rolled it out in a small number of parts of the country, Devon and Cornwall in the first instance, and then our goal is to have this by Christmas so that people can see and and be close to their loved ones.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.30am: The UK Major Ports Group and the British Ports Association give evidence to a a Lords committee about preparations for the end of the post-Brexit transition.
11am: The supreme court starts hearing an appeal over coronavirus-related business insurance claims
12.15pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is expected to hold a coronavirus briefing.
12.15pm: The Welsh government is expected to hold a coronavirus briefing.
12.30pm: Downing Street holds its daily lobby briefing.
5pm: Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is holding a press conference at No 10.
And in Brussels the UK-EU trade talks are resuming.
Politics Live is now doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
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