Afternoon summary
- Mainland Portugal has been added to the Welsh government’s quarantine list, but not England’s. This means holidaymakers returning to Wales after 4am tomorrow from mainland Portugal - as well as from Gibraltar, French Polynesia and the Greek islands of Mykonos, Zakynthos, Lesvos, Paros and Antiparos and Crete, which are also being added to the Welsh list - will have to self-isolate for 14 days. (See 5.42pm.) The Welsh government said it was acting following “clear advice from the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) ... that travel from [these countries] constitutes a public health risk”. But the UK government (for these purposes, the English government), which also receives the same advice, said it was making no changes to its quarantine list today. (See 5.12pm.)
- The number of close contacts of people who tested positive for Covid-19 being reached through England’s NHS Test and Trace is at its lowest since the system was launched, new figures have been revealed. (See 2.49pm.) The statistics were published only hours after Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said England’s test-and-trace system and other responses to coronavirus were now so good that the country could avoid a major resurgence in cases of the virus, as seen in countries such as France and Spain.
- The UK has recorded 1,735 new cases of coronavirus - the highest daily total since 4 June (1,805). (See 5.29pm.)
- Scotland’s national clinical director, Prof Jason Leitch, has said he does not think the mass roll-out of a 20-minute coronavirus test will prove feasible in the near future. (See 4.26pm.) He was speaking hours after Hancock said that it could be widely available in the coming months.
That’s all from me for today. Our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.
Updated
Wales adds mainland Portugal, Gibraltar, French Polynesia, Crete and other Greek islands to quarantine list
Vaughan Gething, the health minister in the Welsh government, has announced that Wales is adding mainland Portugal to its quarantine list. That means holidaymakers returning to Wales from there after 4am tomorrow morning will have to self-isolate for 14 days.
Gething announced his move shortly after the UK government (for these purposes, the English government) announced that Portugal was not being added to England’s quarantine list today. (See 5.12pm.)
In a statement, Gething also said that Gibraltar, French Polynesia and the Greek islands of Mykonos, Zakynthos, Lesvos, Paros and Antiparos and Crete are also being added to Wales’s quarantine list, again with effect from 4am tomorrow.
Gething said he was acting on advice from the joint biosecurity centre, which said travel from these areas constituted a public health risk. He went on:
This action is being taken as a result of a large number of cases of coronavirus have been imported into Wales from tourists returning from the Greek islands, in particular. In the last week, there have been more than 20 cases confirmed in passengers on one flight from Zante to Cardiff.
UK records 1,735 new coronavirus cases - highest daily total since early June
The government has updated its daily coronavirus dashboard. And here are the main points.
- The UK has recorded 1,735 new cases of coronavirus, which is the highest daily total since 4 June (1,805). Daily case numbers have been rising steadily for two months now, but originally that was attributed to the increase in testing. However it is now clear that the proportion of people testing positive is also increasing, as today’s report from NHS Test and Trace makes clear. See 2.49pm. At least in part this is probably because testing is becoming more focused on high-risk areas.
- The UK has recorded a further 13 coronavirus deaths, taking the total to 41,527. But this chart only records people who have died within 28 days of a coronavirus tests, and so it significantly understates the true number of coronavirus deaths in the UK. Taking into account all deaths where coronavirus was mentioned on the death certificate, there have been more than 57,300 deaths in the UK.
- A further 124 people have been admitted to hospital with coronavirus. Although case numbers have been rising significantly in the last two months, the hospital admission figures have broadly stable.
Portugal avoids going on quarantine list as England announces no changes to travel corridor rules today
Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has announced that Portugal is not being added to the quarantine list today, despite speculation that it would be because of the rising caseload there.
We continue to keep the Travel Corridor list under constant review & won't hesitate to remove countries if needed. However, there are no English additions or removals today.
— Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) September 3, 2020
Nonetheless, holidaymakers are reminded - 14-day quarantine countries can & do change at very short notice
Travel Corridor factors taken into account by JBC & Ministers inc: COVID-19 prevalence; level & rate of change; extent of in-country tests, regime & test positivity; extent of contained outbreak as opposed to general transmission; govt actions & other epidemiological information.
— Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) September 3, 2020
Updated
Rachel Reeves, Labour’s Cabinet Office minister and an ally of Sir Keir Starmer, has rowed back on her earlier calls for Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard to “consider his position.” She made that suggestion in an interview this morning. (See 10.09am.) But in a tweet issued some hours later, Reeves reverted back to the normal protocol which prohibits Labour leaders at Westminster from commenting on Scottish Labour’s internal debates and problems.
As I said repeatedly this morning, matters about Scottish Labour are for Scottish Labour. Keir, Richard and the whole of the Labour Party are determined to rebuild trust in Scotland, and take on the SNP’s domestic record ahead of next year’s elections.
— Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP) September 3, 2020
Some of the best journalism on the coronavirus crisis has come from BBC Radio 4’s More or Less, presented by Tim Harford. But Harford, like all of us, does occasionally make a mistake and, in an interesting Twitter thread starting here, he explains how he got it wrong when he said the risk of dying from Covid-19 was the same as the risk of dying from a bath.
1/ Time for an apology and a correction. Seems that every newspaper in the UK is (correctly) reporting that I said the risk of catching a fatal case of Covid-19 is about the same as the risk of having a bath. I did say that, but I was wrong. Details below.
— Tim Harford (@TimHarford) September 3, 2020
Harford explains that he had muddled the risk on any given day with the risk over the course of a year.
3/ Now according to this piece – the author of which should be held blameless – the risk of taking a bath is about 1 in 3 million (0.3 micromorts). But that can’t be right. https://t.co/6DBj7rv97W
— Tim Harford (@TimHarford) September 3, 2020
4/ The correct claim is that the risk of dying in the bath PER YEAR is 1 in 3 million – 20-30 deaths per year in a country of 67 million people. https://t.co/MSJ6eP7k6S
— Tim Harford (@TimHarford) September 3, 2020
But, as he points out towards the end of the thread, his overall point was sound.
13/ Covid is a killer. It’s killed 65,000 people in the UK, including a dear friend of mine. Don’t let anyone tell you different. But the daily infection risk from Covid is now low. People shouldn’t be terrified to leave their own homes.
— Tim Harford (@TimHarford) September 3, 2020
Scottish health chief says 'logistics and science' make early mass roll-out of 20-minute Covid tests unlikely
This morning Matt Hancock, the health secretary for England, did a round of media interviews partly to promote the announcement that the government is spending £500m piloting new approaches to testing. This includes further work on a saliva test that can tell people within 20 minutes whether they have coronavirus. Hancock did not set a date for when this would be available, but he said that it could be widely available over the coming weeks and months. (See 7.38am.)
But, at the Scottish government’s news conference earlier (see 1.35pm) Prof Jason Leitch, the Scottish government’s national clinical director, said he did not think this particular test would work. And although he said the potential benefits of a test like this were considerable, he expressed doubts about how viable this would be in practice. He said:
This particular pilot and prototype - it’s going to be Salford and I think Southampton, Southampton have been involved in some early trials of mass city testing - I don’t think this test will be the one.
But, in a slightly fictional world, thinking forward, if you had a non-invasive, fast, home test, then you can imagine what that might be able to do. If it’s specific, then that may be able to tell you that today you are virus free, and if you could do it again tomorrow, then you would be virus free.
But think of the logistics of that. Just in our country, that is enormous. And the whole world would want that. So there is something in it, for certain. But the logistics and the science are behind.
Leitch then made a comparison with a saliva-based pregnancy test.
Imagine a pregnancy test from saliva. You would get a line in your test to tell you whether you are positive or negative today, you would then be told how to behave appropriately for that test result, do it again tomorrow, do it again the next day. But that presently - you might not write it up like this - that feels like fiction.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, said that she wanted to see testing play as big a role as possible, but she said it was important to be “realistic” as well as optimistic. She said that at one stage people thought antibody testing would turn out to be a panacea, but that that had turned out not to be the case.
Updated
Police Scotland have confirmed they are investigating serious charges against organisers of a house party attended by more than 300 people in Midlothian last weekend.
The news comes just after the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, told reporters that house parties “were still a concern”, but that smaller gatherings were also believed to be driving the clusters in the west of Scotland which resulted in Tuesday’s increased local restrictions.
The organisers of the ticketed party, run as a commercial event at a rented property, could face charges of culpable and reckless conduct after officers arrived at around 12.20am on Sunday, 30 August to disperse the crowds.
Deputy chief constable Malcolm Graham said: “Those attending this organised event showed a blatant disregard for the regulations in place to help save lives and prevent the spread of coronavirus.”
Warning that anyone holding a similar event would be met with a “robust response”, he added:
I cannot stress enough the serious risk to public health an event of this size poses not only to those present and anyone they come into contact with, but also the wider community and all those from the emergency services who attended.
Over the past weekend Police Scotland officers responded to reports of around 300 house parties across the country, dispersed those attending and issued six fixed penalty notices.
Updated
NHS England has record a further 15 coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here.
In Scotland one further death has been recorded. There has also been one further death in Northern Ireland.
But there have been no further deaths in Wales.
Costa Coffee to cut 1,650 jobs as Covid-19 takes toll on cafes
Costa Coffee is to cut up to 1,650 jobs in its cafes – more than one in 10 of its workforce, as it said trading remained challenging during the Covid-19 pandemic, my colleague Sarah Butler reports.
Labour says test and trace figures for England 'hugely disappointing'
Labour has described today’s figures from NHS test and trace as “hugely disappointing”. This is from Justin Madders, a shadow health minister.
With cases on the increase and the government pushing for everyone to return to work, it is more important than ever that test and trace is working to its potential.
It is therefore hugely disappointing to see that the number of people the system reached went down again in the last week.
There is also clearly a problem with testing infrastructure as people across the country are sent hundreds of miles for testing appointments.
Updated
We attract top-quality reader reaction at Politics Live. Here is Scotland’s first minister, responding to a tweet flagging up the post at 2.49pm, pointing out that NHS test and trace is an England outfit and that Scotland’s equivalent, Test and Protect, is doing rather better.
I know it’s not deliberate - so not a criticism - but given my picture illustrates this headline, people might think it’s Scottish system being referred to. It’s not. NHS Scotland Test & Protect is currently reaching well over 90% of contacts https://t.co/yhhxVMWubK
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) September 3, 2020
Updated
Nicola Sturgeon and her national clinical director Jason Leitch gave some further detail on the nature of the outbreaks in the west of Scotland that prompted Tuesday’s home gathering restrictions, after they were pressed by journalists at the lunchtime briefing.
Sturgeon said that test and protect contract tracing offered data that allowed public health officials to be much more targeted and proportionate in their response to the latest outbreaks. She said: “One of the issues here is that it is more disparate than some of the other outbreaks we have been dealing with. It seems to be more spread out across a number of smaller unconnected clusters.”
Both underlined that house parties were not the only culprit. Sturgeon said: “What I want to be clear about is that it is not just big house parties. There may be an element of that but it is also about family transmission in smaller household gatherings.”
She added that, while in pubs or cafe there were regulations in place to reduce transmission risk, “in our own homes it is a lot harder to have that kind of approach because we’re with our loved ones, we’re in our own homes, therefore there are risks of transmission that are different and at times a bit greater.”
Leitch said the data showed:
- General transmission inside homes, sometimes with larger gatherings, otherwise in relatively small extended family groups where people drop their guard.
- It’s not focused on very young children and very elderly people, it’s about families and it’s young adults, in general terms mixed households by gender and mixed age groups.
Updated
NHS Test and Trace failed to reach almost third of close contacts in most recent week, figures show
NHS Test and Trace (which covers England) has released its latest weekly bulletin (pdf) on its performance. It contains 39 pages of data, covering most aspects of the test and trace system, and there are some that are positive for the government. But on some of the most important measures, the system is still failing to live up to expectations. Here are the key points.
- NHS Test and Trace failed to reach almost a third of those identified as close contacts of people testing positive in the most recent week, the report shows. The report says that 69.4% of close contacts of people who tested positive for Covid-19 in England were reached through test and trace in the week ending August 26 and told to self-isolate. This is down from 77.1% in the previous week and, according to PA Media, the lowest weekly percentage since test and trace was launched in May. The figure is worrying because, according to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, test and trace has to reach 80% of contacts to be effective.
- But, during the whole period since test and trace was launched, 79.7% of close contacts have been reached. That is effectively the 80% target. But this overall figures includes what are described as complex cases (outbreaks in institutions like hospitals) and non-complex cases (isolated cases). In complex cases it is relatively easy to reach all contacts, and since test and trace were launched 97.6% of close contacts in these cases have been reached. In non-complex cases the figure is just 57.8%, and it has improved little over time, as this chart shows.
- The government is still failing by a wide margin to meet its target of getting all tests turned around within 24 hours. Boris Johnson told the Commons on 3 of June that he would get “all tests turned around within 24 hours by the end of June, except for difficulties with postal tests or insuperable problems like that”. This is almost happening in pillar 1 testing (testing taking place in hospitals), where the latest figures show 89.1% of these tests being completed within 24 hours in the week ending 26 August. But tests being carried out at regional test centres or by mobile sites (ie, the tests requested by people feeling ill) are well short of this target. In the week ending 26 August only 49.3% of regional site tests were turned around within 24 hours, and only 59.9% of mobile unit tests.
- The proportion of people testing positive for coronavirus has been going up, the report says. The number of people testing positive every week has been rising since early July, but some people have argued that this is due to more people being tested. But according to this report, in the week ending 26 August, that was not the case. Some 6,732 people tested positive for coronavirus. That was a 6% increase on the previous week and the highest weekly total since the end of May. But the number of people being tested was down 1%.
On the plus side, the report says that in the week ending 26 August test and trace did contact 81.4% of the people referred to them because they had tested positive to ask them for information about who their close contacts were. That is up from 75.2% the previous week.
And it says that in the week ending 26 August the government had the capacity to carry out 2,695,786 tests, an increase of 18% on the previous week.
Updated
Testing capacity has 'completely evaporated' in part of north-east England, MP claims
Covid-19 testing capacity has “completely evaporated” in part of north-east England, ministers have been warned. Speaking during business questions in the Commons, Labour’s Ian Mearns said more tests were needed in his Gateshead constituency. He claimed the area only had enough for two hours of testing. Mearns said:
My director of public health in Gateshead is very concerned that despite the fact that the number of cases in Gateshead has gone up from 18 to 33 to 38 of Covid-19 in the last fortnight, our testing capacity has just gone – it has just dried up, completely evaporated.
At the latest count we only have enough tests to start in the morning at 8 o’clock and completely run out by 10.
That has significant problems for equalities issues in terms of the people who can get tested and where they can be tested and when they can be tested.
Our director of public health would like the government to do something about this and increase testing capacity.
It isn’t just important in those areas which are hot spots, it’s important everywhere – particularly where local communities are seeing an increase in the number of cases.
Replying for the government, the leader of the Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg said he would take this up with the health secretary.
Updated
No 10 accuses Barnier of 'misleading representation' of UK's position in trade talks
Downing Street has accused EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier of painting a “misleading” representation of UK proposals in “deflecting scrutiny” from Brussels’ position. Referring to recent remarks from Barnier, who said “where the EU has shown openness to possible solutions, the UK has shunned our offers”, the prime minister’s official spokesman said:
Michel Barnier’s comments are a misleading representation of our proposals, aimed at deflecting scrutiny from the EU’s own positions which are unrealistic and unprecedented.
For our part we’ve been consistently clear that we’re seeking a relationship that respects our sovereignty and has a free trade agreement at its core similar to those the EU has already agreed with like-minded countries.
The EU have refused to engage with our proposals and the documents we’ve brought to the table insisting we must accept continuity with EU fisheries policy and disregarding the UK’s status as an independent coastal state.
We need more realism from the EU on the scale of the change that results from our leaving the EU.
We do want an agreement and are looking for a relationship based on the EU’s existing bilateral arrangement on fishing with Norway which is the most relevant precedent to relationships between two independent coastal states.
Updated
Sturgeon says people have to be realistic about whether or not mass rapid testing will turn out to be possible. She says there have been hopes raised in the past about particular tests. She says Scotland is involved in trials for the 20-minute test, but it is important to be realistic.
Leitch says he does not think the test currently being piloted will turn out to be the one. But if you could develop a non-invasive, fast home test, that would be immensely valuable, he says.
Updated
Q: What do you say to claims that the decision to impose the strict Aberdeen lockdown was political motivated. (The council is run by Labour, the Conservatives and independents.)
Sturgeon says that claim is ridiculous. She hopes that people do not think like that. But she says, if they do, there is not much she can do to persuade them otherwise.
Sturgeon says she has been asked why she did not close pubs in Glasgow. Some people have said they should have done that instead of telling people not to visit other people at home. But she says that in Glasgow they were always going to have to impose restrictions for households, because of the nature of the outbreak. There was no either/or choice. She says that pubs could have been closed too, but that was viewed as disproportionate.
Sturgeon says she is looking at how much more data can be put into the public domain. She says her government’s decisions on local lockdowns are driven by the data. But what also matters is how you interpret that data, she says.
Q: Are house parties responsible for the rise in cases? Some people in areas where there are lockdowns feel they are being punished for the behaviour of a few.
Sturgeon says in Aberdeen it was clear transmission was driven by pubs and clubs. She says that has not been the case in Greater Glasgow and Clyde. Household transmission has been the problem there. She says that may involve house parties. The authorities are clamping down on those, she says. But she says the household transmission problems in Glasgow is not just about house parties.
Leitch says the problem in Glasgow is not just three big house parties.
Q: Can you say how significant a factor house parties are?
Sturgeon says her government is concerned about house parties. But that is not hte only reason for the problem in Glasgow. Family transmission is a factor too.
She says she lives in Glasgow herself. She was looking forward to seeing her parents this weekend. It would have been the first time for a month. She knows how frustrating this is, she says.
Q: The UK government wants to roll out 20-minute tests. Will you be able to do this too?
Sturgeon says the Scottish government is working with the UK government on this. But there is a lot of work to be done, she says.
Leitch says the UK is not rolling out 20-minute tests. It is piloting them. Scotland is involved in those pilots, he says.
Sturgeon says she has never seen health concerns and economic concerns as in competition. She says that if you cannot protect health, the economy won’t recover.
Scotland’s health secretary Jeane Freeman has announced that NHS Highland is to purchase and run Home Farm care home in Portree, Skye.
Last month, Scotland’s care home regulator dropped its legal action against HC-One over the alleged mismanagement of the home, where 10 residents died after contracting Covid-19.
The Care Inspectorate applied to the courts earlier in the year to strip HC-One of its licence to operate Home Farm.
Freeman said that all staff will be moved onto NHS contracts, which would provide more security and better conditions. She said:
Most importantly, elderly residents and their families can be assured of long term stability in care and support that residents will receive.
Asked if there was a danger that the company was profiting from its mismanagement, Freeman said she recognised that there were two sets of interests that had to be balanced, to ensure that residents are safe and public funds are being used to best effect.
Updated
Q: What have you learned from the way you dealt with the outbreak in Aberdeen?
Jason Leitch, the Scottish government’s national clinical director, says what happened in Aberdeen showed the importance of adopting a multi-agency approach. Some 300 premises were inspected to ensure mitigations were in place. And people were asked to behave differently.
Q: Why is Scotland applying quarantine from arrivals from the whole of Greece when the Welsh government’s quarantine policy just covers arrivals from Zante?
Sturgeon says test and protect provides a lot of information about where cases are coming from, and there have been a lot of positive cases in Scotland in people who have recently returned from Greece.
Q: Were you over-optimistic earlier in the summer in June when you said the virus was in retreat and we were moving nearer to normality?
Sturgeon says that, when she made that comment, the virus was in retreat.
But she says she has always said it would be a long haul. It might be possible to move closer to normality, but to do that people will have to make an effort, she says.
And she says she does not know what will happen in winter.
The virus will take “every opportunity we give it”, she says. “So we have to make sure we don’t give it that opportunity.”
Jason Leitch, Scotland’s national clinical director, who is at the press conference alongside Sturgeon, says that globally coronavirus cases are still increasing.
This is what Sturgeon said near the start of her press conference to address the claim that her government’s lockdown rules have been unfair on Aberdeen. (See 10.49am.)
📢@NicolaSturgeon: "In Aberdeen, through the work of Test and Protect, it was identified that the outbreak there had started in pubs, but also that there was a risk of wider community transmission. Our decisions on restrictions were driven by our understanding of that."
— The SNP (@theSNP) September 3, 2020
📢@NicolaSturgeon: "The cases in Greater Glasgow & Clyde are instead associated with multiple, smaller, unconnected household-based clusters.
— The SNP (@theSNP) September 3, 2020
And that then raises the concern about the risks of wider community transmission."
Updated
The UK government publishes its own estimate for R across the UK every Friday. Last week it said its estimate for R across the UK was between 0.9 and 1.1. It estimate for R in England was also between 0.9 and 1.1.
Summing up what this meant, the government said Sage, its Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, “does not have confidence that R is currently below 1 in England”.
Here is the clip of Nicola Sturgeon saying the R number in Scotland is “probably now above 1”, and perhaps as high as 1.4.
“The virus is spreading again here, just as it is elsewhere in the UK.”@NicolaSturgeon says the R number – average number of people who would be infected by another infectious person – could be as high as 1.4.
— BBC Scotland News (@BBCScotlandNews) September 3, 2020
FM says overall prevalence of the virus remains low in Scotland. pic.twitter.com/77pmUuykrH
Sturgeon said the R number was less important when prevalence was low. And generally prevalence was still low in Scotland, she said. But she said a rise in the R number nevertheless highlighted the risk the virus posed.
Sturgeon says test and protect (Scotland’s version of test and trace) is “fire fighting”. It can help combat the spread of the virus, she says. But she says it is best not to let it in in the first place.
What is happening in Glasgow should be a “wake-up call”, she says. She urges people to be more careful.
Sturgeon says R number in Scotland likely to be above 1 and could be as high as 1.4
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has just started her coronavirus briefing.
She says another 101 people have tested positive for coronavirus. Of those cases, 53 were in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde areas, she says.
And one further death has been reported, she says - although the death occurred in mid August, and has only just been reported.
She says the Scottish government will be publishing its latest estimate for R, the reproduction number, in Scotland. She says it is likely to be above 1, and could be as high as 1.4.
If R is above 1, that means the spread of the virus is increasing, not decreasing.
The husband of Conservative minister Chloe Smith has claimed that coronavirus is a “mental illness”. Sandy McFadzean, who married the Norwich North MP in 2013, attended last weekend’s march against coronavirus restrictions. He has previously re-tweeted posts describing the Government as “globalist puppets” and “tyrants”, the Eastern Daily Press reported.
A poster for the Unite For Freedom March, held in London on Saturday, called for an end to social distancing, track and trace and the use of face masks, PA Media reports.
McFadzean, who is employed by Credit Suisse as a vice president, wrote on Twitter: “Covid-19 is most likely an outbreak of mental illness.” A further post read: “Government need to be clear. Either there is a killer virus on the loose or there isn’t. (Spoiler alert: There isn’t).”
Smith, a Cabinet Office minister, told the Eastern Daily Press that her husband was a private citizen, that he was entitled to his own views, but that she did not agree with him on this.
A report in the British Medical Journal today suggests that antibody tests - the tests used to determine how many people have had had coronavirus, and who are therefore likely to have some immunity - may be underestimating the extent to which people have been exposed to the virus.
The article, by three researcher from the MRC Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge, University Hospital Wales in Cardiff, and St George’s, University of London, is here (pdf). And here is an extract from a summary on the MRC Biostatistics Unit’s website.
Seroprevalence surveys estimate the proportion of the population that have previously been infected with a virus by measuring the presence of antibodies produced to fight off the virus. This is important for calculating severity measures such as the hospitalisation rate and fatality rate, as well as to understand the impact of public health policies, such as social distancing and mask wearing. They also inform our progress towards herd immunity, and the likelihood of a “second wave” of infections. Large-scale UK seroprevalence surveys have generally provided low estimates of virus spread, suggesting that 15% of those in London and only 4% of those in the south-west and south-east of England have been exposed to the virus.
However, there are several reasons why these surveys may not capture all those who have developed an immune response to the virus. There are several different classes of antibodies. Seroprevalence surveys typically only measure IgG and sometimes IgM antibodies, which represent the dominant antibody classes in the bloodstream. They do not typically measure IgA antibodies, which represent the main antibody class in mucous secretions, including saliva and the protective fluid around the eyes, respiratory tract, and digestive tract. As the main site of viral entry into the body is the respiratory tract, failure to measure IgA antibodies may result in false negative tests. A previous survey in Luxembourg found IgG antibodies in 1.9% of individuals, whereas IgA antibodies were found in 11.0%, over five times as many. Another survey of local residents in Ischgl, Austria used a combination of IgG and IgA antibody testing. Positive antibody tests were obtained for 42.4% of residents in Ischgl, far higher than other population-based surveys of infection hotspots. Additionally, most large seroprevalence surveys have been based on blood samples only. In a survey of UK healthcare workers, 15% of those tested for IgG, IgA and IgM antibodies provided a positive saliva test but a negative blood test.
In a comment on the report for the Science Media Centre Dr Rupert Beale from the cell biology of infection laboratory at the Francis Crick Institute, said he thought it was possible that antibody surveys “slightly underestimate” the extent of antibodies in the population.
Updated
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has posted a thread on Twitter this morning explaining why new lockdown restrictions are being imposed in some areas with high numbers of new cases but not others. She was responding to a tweet from the Channel 4 News journalist Ciaran Jenkins.
1. Cases per 100k a factor we take into account - and it is often quoted - but it’s not only one. We also look at test positivity rate. And rely on analysis of public health experts as to whether there is clearly identifiable source of outbreak/potential community transmission https://t.co/98EBlnwYnA
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) September 3, 2020
2. If, eg, you have high rate per 100k in an area but confidence that it’s associated with identified outbreaks that are being contained, wider restrictions may not be necessary. This was case recently in Tayside/Coupar Angus food processing plant outbreak.../
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) September 3, 2020
3. Heightened concern in @NHSGGC - particularly 3 affected council areas - is that cases appear to be linked to multiple, smaller unconnected clusters with potential community transmission, hence need for wider restrictions to stem spread.../
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) September 3, 2020
@NHSGGC is NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde.
4. I agree it would be much easier in both decision-making and public communication if there was a single, simple formula/threshold, but it’s more complicated. It requires expert analysis and judgment and tough, often ‘on-balance’ decisions.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) September 3, 2020
Tory 1922 Committee chair says Sunak should be 'very, very cautious' about raising tax
Yesterday Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, told Tory MPs that he would not be proposing “a horror show of tax rises with no end in sight” as he sought to tackle the massive deficit generated by the coronavirus crisis. But he also strongly hinted that some tax increases might be coming, saying that “difficult” decisions would be needed to “correct” the public finances.
Quite what that means (a horror show of tax rises - but time-limited?) is anyone’s guess, but the subject is causing immense nervousness in the Conservative party and this morning Sir Graham Brady, chair of the backbench 1922 Committee, intervened. In an interview with the Today programme he said the government should be “very, very cautious” about putting up taxes. He said:
We have to be aware that raising taxes, and raising the wrong types of taxes especially, can be a way in which you stifle economic growth and prospects rather than guaranteeing them, so I think we should be very, very cautious in exploring tax increases.
Updated
Sturgeon accused of showing lockdown favouritism to Glasgow over Aberdeen
Eminent Aberdeen University professor Hugh Pennington has accused the Scottish government of “letting Glasgow off the hook”, after Nicola Sturgeon introduced far less onerous local restrictions in the central belt than those experienced by the Granite City.
Pennington, who is emeritus professor of bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen and chaired inquiries into E coli outbreaks in Scotland and south Wales, told the Press and Journal that Aberdeen was “hammered and punished” by last month’s three-week shutdown which included the closure of all pubs, cafes and restaurants, a five-mile travel restriction as well as a ban on indoor gatherings and hospital visits.
By comparison, in Glasgow, East Renfewshire and West Dumbartonshire, the Scottish government earlier this week issued guidance banning indoor gatherings in private residences.
Pennington said:
It looks as though we were almost being punished for having an outbreak while Glasgow is, to some degree, being let off the hook.
The Glasgow outbreaks are associated with domesticated settings – and these are even more difficult to control. So why aren’t they being more draconian with central Scotland than in Aberdeen? It looks as though we got hammered with a punitive element rather than a public health one, compared to Glasgow.
The intervention comes after Aberdeen city council co-leader Douglas Lumsden, a Conservative, accused the Scottish government of “double standards” over the local lockdowns in Aberdeen and Glasgow. Both Labour and Conservative co-leaders of the city council were at odds with the Holyrood government after the lockdown measures continued despite their calls to re-open the city.
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The mayor of Middlesbrough, Andy Preston, has warned residents that they must act now to avoid a local lockdown being imposed on the town. Speaking after 14 positive tests were reported yesterday, following 12 on Tuesday and eight on Monday, Preston said:
It’s never our intention to cause unnecessary alarm, but as a town we need to get a grip of this virus and break the chains of transmission now.
The problem we have is a scattering of cases from different parts of Middlesbrough that have the potential to grow.
It’s now beyond urgent that we do all we can to stop the spread.
Please wear a face covering - for your sake and everyone else’s.
Wash your hands, keep your distance from those you don’t live with and remember the more contact you have with others the more likely it is you will be infected.
Mbro must act now to avoid the threat of a local lockdown.
— Andy Preston Mayor (@Tees_Issues) September 3, 2020
14 positive tests were reported yesterday & our 7-day total per 100,000 is about 35 - higher than the vast majority of other towns.
We’re on fringe of something serious & need every person & business to act responsibly. pic.twitter.com/5spMjtgtRx
2. So please wear a face covering, wash your hands & keep your distance from others you don’t live with.
— Andy Preston Mayor (@Tees_Issues) September 3, 2020
Lockdown would be awful news for Middlesbrough- damaging jobs, investment & mental health.
If you see a business operating with bad Covid practises then do not use them. pic.twitter.com/2WFmNdKUk8
At international trade questions in the Commons this morning the Labour MP Jeff Smith asked about the plan to appoint Tony Abbott as a UK trade envoy. (See 9.56am.) Smith said Abbott was on record as saying when he was Australia’s prime minister, his main role in Australian trade talks was ensuring “we weren’t sidetracked by peripheral issues like environmental standards”. So did Abbott’s appointment mean the UK would be sidelining environmental issues too, Smith asked.
Greg Hands, an international trade minister, replied to Smith’s question and he said he was glad Abbott wanted to help the UK. Hands said:
The government’s approach on the environment, and the environment and trade, is unchanged. No appointments have been confirmed, but personally I welcome the fact that a former prime minister of Australia is willing to help this country out.
I think we should welcome his interest and welcome the endeavours that he has potential to make on all our behalves.
Government faces legal action over care home visiting guidance in England
A charity is mounting a legal challenge over the government’s guidance on family visits to care home residents during the coronavirus outbreak, PA Media reports. John’s Campaign is seeking a judicial review of the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) care home visiting guidance issued on 22 July.
The long-awaited document said visits could resume in specific care homes in England once local directors of public health and local authorities decide it is safe to do so. But charities said passing responsibility to local decision-makers was likely to result in little change in visiting access unless the point was “clearly made and enforced by the government”. John’s Campaign believes closest family members are not an “optional extra” but integral to residents’ wellbeing, and that the government has failed to take into account individuals’ human rights.
A DHSC spokesman said:
We know that limiting visits in care homes has been difficult for many families and residents who want to see their loved ones, but our first priority is to prevent infections in care homes, and this means that visiting policy should still be restricted, with alternatives sought wherever possible.
Visiting policies should be tailored by the individual care home and taking into account local risks in their area.
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Starmer ally Rachel Reeves joins calls for Scottish Labour leader to quit
Rachel Reeves, Labour’s shadow Cabinet Office minister, has become the first member of Sir Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet to call on the Scottish Labour leader, Richard Leonard, to resign, after a revolt by his MSPs at Holyrood. Reeves, who is seen as close to Starmer, told Sky News:
I think that Richard Leonard needs to think about his position. The opinion polls in Scotland are pretty dire for Labour, we’ve got important elections next year, but those are decisions for Scottish Labour.
The latest poll put support for Scottish Labour at 14%, a distant third behind the Scottish National party and the Conservatives, eight months before next May’s Scottish parliament election; the polls suggest Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP are on course to win an overall majority.
Four Labour MSPs called on Leonard to step down yesterday, with two - James Kelly and Mark Griffin - resigning from their shadow cabinet posts in protest at his refusal to quit.
Reeves’s remarks are a breach of generally-upheld protocol that UK Labour cabinet members do not comment on the Scottish party’s internal affairs, but Leonard’s critics say there is growing alarm in Westminster about his failure to reverse Labour’s decline.
Last week Anneliese Dodds, the shadow chancellor and the most senior Scot in the shadow cabinet, declined to comment on Leonard’s future during a short visit to Edinburgh but refused to say he was the right leader for the party.
Leonard told BBC Radio Scotland this morning that he would not quit. He said:
Rachel Reeves is not a member of the Scottish Labour party and I’m elected by members of the Scottish Labour party; that’s who I’m accountable to ... I’ve received a huge number of messages of support from right across the party, the trade unions and I’m confident I have got the backing of the members who elected me just under three years ago.
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Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Archie Bland.
Matt Hancock is being criticised this morning for his defence of the government’s decision (or reported decision - it has not been confirmed yet) to appoint the former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott as a UK trade envoy. (See 8.06am.) When it was put to him that Abbott was a misogynist and homophobe, Hancock implied this did not matter too much because he was a trade expert. But Abbott isn’t - according to the Dmitry Grozoubinski - who is a former Australian trade negotiator.
In what universe? https://t.co/QJMcNiclze
— Dmitry Grozoubinski (@DmitryOpines) September 3, 2020
By his own admission his contribution to Australian FTAs was to tell negotiators not to sweat the technical details and to just get 'er dun.
— Dmitry Grozoubinski (@DmitryOpines) September 3, 2020
I'm not saying he has no experience to contribute on trade, but "expert" is pushing it.
The shadow justice secretary, David Lammy, said Hancock seemed to be admitting that Abbott’s views on women and homosexuality did not matter.
Kay Burley: “Tony Abbott is a homophobe and a misogynist”
— David Lammy (@DavidLammy) September 3, 2020
Health Secretary @MattHancock: “He’s also an expert on trade”.
So the government admits Tony Abbott is a homophobe and a misogynist, it just doesn’t care.
pic.twitter.com/rEPlNiSUxH
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Meanwhile, the Today programme has been talking to the independent reviewer of terror legislation, Jonathan Hall QC, who has just published a report listing a catalogue of failings on the way that people convicted of terror related offences are monitored by the authorities. (There’s a story on the report here.)
The report was commissioned after the convicted terrorist Usman Khan, who was released on licence from prison, killed two people near London Bridge on 29 November.
Hall says “I think you’ve got to start with the premise [that risk assessing prisoners for release] is very very difficult” and that what prisoners say about their offending is “taken too much at face value and not challenged enough
What you’ve got to understand about people who show terrorist risk is that they may be very good at acting in what you’d call a pro-social way, they may have a very good family life, they may even have been at work, and it’s not surprising that they’d behave well in prison.
In his report he says he argues that you have to be “very humble” about assessing terrorist risk and always “challenge what you see”.
Hall says that release meetings are often focused on the perspective of the released prisoner and what the impact on them of restrictions was, rather than thinking critically about risk. “Probation officers are used to effectively caring for individuals as they move from prison into the community, which is excellent, because everyone including terror offenders needs to be rehabilitated,” he says.
But what I particularly found is that quite a lot of the probation officers didn’t have the ‘full fat’ intelligence or understanding of the risk posed by the people they were managing.
His main concern, he says, is that “very powerful” probation officers managing terrorist risk weren’t always in possession of the right information, and that even very sensitive information from police and MI5 needs to be shared more widely.
He also says that he endorses the government’s plan to have terrorist offenders undergo polygraph testing, the efficacy of which has in the past been controversial. “Since polygraph testing is an ethical and effective way of dealing with sex offenders, it must also be of terror offenders,” he says.
That’s it from me. Andrew Sparrow will be taking over now.
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On Labour in Scotland, where four Labour MSPs have called on party leader, Richard Leonard, to quit, Sturgeon says the party has failed to answer “what Scottish Labour is for” and that until they find a meaningful distinction from the Conservative party on the future of the union they will struggle to succeed.
Sturgeon says that although coronavirus remains her focus she continues to think that Scotland should have the chance to choose its own future and she will “argue the case for independence” at next year’s election. But what matters right now, she adds, “is the Covid challenge”.
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Sturgeon warns of 'tsunami of avoidable redundancies' unless furlough scheme extended
Nicola Sturgeon has been speaking to Sky News, discussing local lockdowns in the Greater Glasgow and the Clyde area and new quarantine rules for people coming to Scotland from Greece.
“This is the reality we’re going to be living with, potentially for some time to come,” she says. “The good news is that while we see overall number of cases rising … the overall positivity rate is low [about 1% of tests]”. And she says test and trace helps to target interventions to control the spread.
Sturgeon says that because the Scottish parliament doesn’t have the power to vote to authorise borrowing, she is unable to extent furlough in Scotland. But she urges the Westminster government to do so. “If that support is prematurely withdrawn we will see a tsunami of avoidable redundancies,” she says. “I really do hope we see common sense prevail here.” She says other countries “very sensibly” are sticking with furlough schemes for the time being. “Businesses still need help and that’s going to be the case for some time.”
Kay Burley suggests that the death rate in care homes in Scotland is a “disgrace”. Sturgeon does not dispute that characterisation but suggests that the higher rate in Scotland may be to do with a different counting method. She notes that the number of cases and deaths in care homes has dropped dramatically “as we’ve learned lessons”. On a second wave, she says “we’re trying to do everything that will prevent the possibility of a second wave”.
Then Sturgeon is asked about Tony Abbott. “If I had anything to do with that decision he wouldn’t be a trade envoy for the United Kingdom,” she says. “Tony Abbott … he’s a misogynist, he’s a sexist, he’s a climate change denier.” On Matt Hancock’s remark that he “also knows a lot about trade” (see 8.06am) Sturgeon says that “trade is not separate from the values and the reputation that a country wants to reflect internationally … having somebody with those views representing the UK probably does not help.”
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Hancock looks ahead to “the cavalry of the vaccine” arriving “which is still coming towards us but it isn’t here yet”. And that’s it.
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On the government’s U-turn on local lockdowns in Bolton and Trafford Hancock says: “We give absolute clarity and then the facts change.” On Bolton, he says the decision was changed after the area had the biggest rise of anywhere in the country. “When the facts change I have to change the decisions.”
(That is not the account of local leaders on the timeline, it should be noted. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, said yesterday that “it’s local councils that need to be in the driving seat here, working then in consultation with the government”. Trafford’s Labour council leader, Andrew Western, tweeted: “We should never have been put in this mess in the first place; this has massively damaged public confidence in measures.”)
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Hancock is asked about the government’s tendency to use excitable language about scientific and technological breakthroughs. He says the UK’s contact tracing system is “among the finest” on the planet. “You have to ask this question … why is it that cases here are not rising as sharply as elsewhere?”
Robinson says that some suggest the same will happen here soon. Hancock says he is “very worried about it” but that we “have the lines of defence in this country”.
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Hancock moves on to the testing “moonshot”. “There’s three improvements in technology,” he says: a spit test rather than a swab, rapid turnaround with labs in the back of a van, and a test that is like a pregnancy test where you get the result immediately. He’s asked about Boris Johnson’s reported claim that “this could end social distancing”: is he saying mass testing could be a gamechanger, a phrase Nick Robinson notes has been used quite a lot? He says mass testing “could help remove some of the restrictions that we currently have … if you can get to the point that regular testing is possible and you’re pretty confident you don’t have it … that allows people more freedom. It’s about bringing back confidence, helping support people get back into work.”
He concludes: “Short of a vaccine, this is the best chance we have of reducing social distancing while controlling the virus.”
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Now Matt Hancock’s on the Today programme, once again being asked to explain why people are having to travel so far for testing in some cases. He says: “Of course there are some operational challenges in a system as big as that.” And he says resources are being focused on areas with new outbreaks.
Is this a problem or a policy, Nick Robinson asks him? He describes them again as “operational challenges” but says the rollout of mass testing is “an answer to the problem in the medium term”.
On care homes and the limits being put on visiting family members with dementia because of testing problems, he says that “more localised protocols” will be being put in place to allow visits, and he says that the problem is being solved and “sorted in short order”. He says that the government wants people to be able to be in physical contact with loved ones in care homes in a safe way.
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On the Today programme, Prof Alan McNally, a microbial genomics specialist from the University of Birmingham, says scaling up of testing should have been done over the summer.
When asked whether now is the right time to change the way tests are carried out, he says:
I don’t think the time is right, I think the time was right to think about scaling up testing to the wider community and asymptomatic testing over the summer when we were relatively Covid-secure, knowing that autumn and winter would come.
“This is the kind of work that needed done over the summer,” he said, adding:
Ideally we would be far more advanced in our ability to handle what we’re already beginning to see, an increase in requirement for Covid testing and respiratory infection testing.
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Here’s a clip of Matt Hancock talking about Tony Abbott, the prospective government trade adviser, in which he responds to the assertion that the former Australian PM is a misogynist and a homophobe by saying: “He’s also an expert on trade.”
“Tony Abbott is a homophobe and a misogynist”
— Kay Burley (@KayBurley) September 3, 2020
Health Sec @MattHancock: “He’s also an expert on trade”#KayBurley
JM pic.twitter.com/92IFWVcDYH
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Alarmingly, we’ve just been warned that John Cleese will be setting a challenge for fellow comedians later on the Today programme: “The first question I would say is: can you tell me a woke joke?” he says. Hard hats on for that segment.
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Hancock says there is little point in testing on people’s return to UK airports because doing so only picks up 7% of cases, as the virus incubates in travellers. “I will not undermine the actions needs to keep us safe,” he says, but notes that he understands the concerns of the aviation industry.
He’s asked about maintaining public confidence when the government keeps making U-turns. “People understand, and your viewers understand, that we’re in an unprecedented situation, we’re dealing with a virus which we increasingly know more about, we’re also dealing with a virus which suddenly expands in areas … and therefore we have to take action. If the numbers change of course… we move swiftly and decisively.”
He again resists invitations to say whether quarantine will be introduced for travellers to Portugal. And that’s it.
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Hancock is asked how the testing system will hold up in the winter months. He says the government is investing half a billion pounds. “Absolutely I recognise the challenge,” he says. “You’re quite right that expanding that [testing capacity] further over the autumn is absolutely critical, and so I’m delighted we’re putting the extra resources in now.” He adds that he can’t say when the new technology will come on stream but that we’re going “as fast as humanly possible”.
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20-minute Covid test could be widely available 'over coming weeks and months', says Hancock
Pressed again on some members of the public who have to travel long distances, Hancock says “we’ve got significant demand for testing but we’ve also got very high capacity. Of course there are operational challenges but I also want to solve the problem by having the next generation of tests on a radically bigger scale” where “the lab is in the back of a van and can go to the people who need the test”.
How long will it be until a 20-minute test is widely available? “The most important message to your viewers is: if you have symptoms you should go and get a test,” he says. Asked again when it will be widely available he says “over the coming weeks and months” and “we’re starting the rollout today” - which some may see as an optimistic description of a pilot programme in four Hampshire schools.
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Here’s Hancock on BBC Breakfast. He’s pressed on how far some people have to travel for a test. He says there are “operational challenges” and he “constantly wants to improve it”, which is why he’s announcing new investment. “I want to make it much bigger but also simpler for people,” he says. “At the moment you have to go to the drivethrough, and people sometimes have to travel … the next generation of tests, you can get the results very rapidly.”
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Hancock will also be on BBC Breakfast shortly and the Today programme, among others, selling the government’s new weekly testing programme and trials of a new kit which it is claimed can provide results within 20 minutes. He said yesterday: “In fact, if you had population testing there’s no reason why you, theoretically, would need to have social distancing: you could pretty much carry on life as normal because you’d just know that everyone you’d mix with had been tested very, very recently.”
You can read Jessica Elgot’s story about that here.
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Hancock defends quarantine policy ahead of possible Portugal change
Good morning and welcome to the UK live blog. This is Archie Bland, on duty until Andrew Sparrow takes over later this morning.
On this morning’s agenda is the news that the UK may reimpose quarantine on travellers returning from Portugal, plans to trial routine weekly Covid testing of the population as part of preparations to head off a possible winter second wave, and a morning media round from the health secretary, Matt Hancock. Later on National Crime Agency officials will be appearing at the home affairs select committee to discuss concerns over migrants crossing the Channel and there will be an urgent question on the government’s kickstart scheme, aimed at creating job placements for people aged 16 to 24.
We begin with Matt Hancock on Sky News, where he says: “The quarantine policy has protected this country… I think the policy has absolutely proved its worth.”
Asked about travelling to Portugal tomorrow, he doesn’t answer directly but says that in general people should only travel if they are prepared to stay at home when they come back. “We follow the data and make these announcements in an organised way at a Friday lunchtime,” he says.
He is also asked about Tony Abbott’s possible new role as UK trade ambassador, and whether his history of homophobic and sexist remarks is compatible with the role.
Hancock says he “bows to nobody” in his support for the LGBTQ community but adds that Abbott has “a huge amount of expertise” on trade policy and adds: “We need to have the best experts in the world working in their field”. “He’s a homophobe and a misogynist,” says Kay Burley. “Well, he’s also an expert in trade,” replies Hancock, to Burley’s disbelief, before Hancock adds: “What I’m saying is we need experts in different areas… it doesn’t change my views.” Then he says he’s focused on coronavirus.
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