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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

UK coronavirus: cases slightly down on previous week; Brexit talks paused after EU official tests positive – as it happened

The UK has recorded 22,915 more cases and 501 more Covid-related deaths.
The UK has recorded 22,915 more cases and 501 more Covid-related deaths. Photograph: James Veysey/REX/Shutterstock

Early evening summary

  • The latest UK Covid case figures have shown that that there have been fewer cases in the last week than in the week before. (See 4.48pm.) This may be evidence that the lockdown is succeeding in bringing the second wave of the virus under control. Other figures have shown Covid cases falling in England in most age groups. (See 2.49pm.) One group of epidemiologists studying the pandemic says that R is now probably around 1 in all regions of England and that England is probably approaching the peak for daily deaths. (See 6.05pm.) Deaths tend to peak around three weeks or so after infections have peaked. In Scotland R is now estimated to be slightly below 1. (See 12.49pm.)

That’s all from me for today. But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.

The MRC Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge University, one of several groups that produces estimates of R, the reproduction number for the government, estimates that R is around 1 in all regions of England. “The probability of Rt exceeding 1 is above 80% only in the Midlands and south-east,” it says in its latest update.

The report goes on:

The number of new infections is decreasing in the north-west, plateauing in the east of England and London and still increasing, though at a much lower rate, in the other regions. Furthermore, it is anticipated that we are approaching a peak in the number of deaths occurring each day. Despite this, the number of publicly announced deaths may continue to increase for a while, as this number represents deaths reported the preceding 24 hours rather than occurred within the previous 24 hours.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, has agreed to allow some MPs who cannot attend parliament to take part in debates virtually. Until now they have been able to ask questions virtually during departmental questions and statements, but not participate during debates on legislation. Rees-Mogg just wants to extend the new right to MPs who have to shield for medical reasons. But today the Commons procedure committee published a critical report saying that a much wider range of MPs should be able to debate legislation virtually, such as MPs at home because of caring responsibilities.

In a short debate on the report earlier Harriet Harman, the mother of the house (longest serving female MP) highlighted another group who were being excluded from debates. She said MPs exercising proxy votes (which are now allowed) were not allowed to participate in debates, and that 62% of MPs were in this category. For Scottish MPs the figure was 78%, she said. She went on:

Imagine having a situation during this pandemic where 78% of Scottish MPs are excluded from debates. We want and need to hear from them and from our colleagues in Wales and from the regions outside Westminster as well. We do not want a situation where half of the chairs of select committees are not able to speak in debates, even those debates that are on the subject on which they have done inquiries and reports.

In Northern Ireland the power-sharing executive had been discussing plans for new coronavirus restrictions to come into force when the current rules end a week tomorrow.

The BBC’s Jayne McCormack says the mood is better than it was last week, when the executive was deadlocked for days over whether to extend the lockdown.

Israel and Sri Lanka among new countries being exempt from quarantine, Shapps says

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has announced that Israel, Jerusalem, Namibia, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Uruguay, Bonaire, St Eustatius and Saba, the Northern Mariana Islands and the US Virgin Islands have all been added to the list of travel corridors for England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

That means anyone arriving in England, Wales or Northern Ireland from these places will no longer have to quarantine for 14 days.

And he says no countries are being removed from the travel corridors list – which means quarantine won’t be imposed on arrivals from new countries not already covered by quarantine rules.

Updated

Katya Adler, the BBC’s Europe editor, has an update on the UK-EU talks in the light of the news that a member of the EU negotiating team has tested positive.

Scottish government accused of exceeding its powers with law largely banning entering and leaving Scotland

Serious questions are being raised about newly published draft regulations from the Scottish government which includes detailed restrictions on entering and leaving Scotland. These draft regulations make it illegal to enter or leave the country, with a significant list of exemptions.

The exemptions are certainly extensive – ranging from taking a driving lesson to feeding a cat – and the framework document issued along with the regs emphasises that such restrictions on non-essential travel are already in place across the UK.

But there are still big concerns about whether this is within the remit of the Holyrood parliament, say the Scottish Conservatives.

MSP and lawyer Adam Tomkins said:

Is this within Holyrood’s competence? For one thing, freedom of movement would appear to be expressly reserved to the UK parliament under the Scotland Act. For another, it’s not clear that the Scottish parliament can make rules contrary to the common travel area, as agreed to by the UK and Ireland.

It’s not at all clear if the draft regulations published today are within the remit of the Scottish parliament. There are, at least, grave doubts about the legal competence to act in the way Scottish ministers propose.

At FMQs earlier today, Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard also attacked the travel ban, saying it was “deeply flawed” and risked both confusing and criminalising people.

Weekly UK Covid case numbers down 2.4% on previous week, latest figures show

The UK government has published its latest coronavirus update on its dashboard. Here are the key figures.

  • The UK has recorded 22,915 more coronavirus cases. That is up from 19,609 yesterday, but it is below the average for the last seven days (23,294).
  • The total number of positive cases over the last seven days is now lower than it was in the previous seven days, by 2.4%. This is significant because the daily number of positive cases has been rising almost continuously since the summer, and the number of tests being carried out has also been rising.
  • The UK has recorded 501 further coronavirus deaths. That is lower than the figure for yesterday (529) and lower than the figure for a week ago today (563) and it suggests that the death rate is flattening out. The overall number of deaths in the last seven days (2,847) is only 1.4% higher than in the previous seven days. Until recently the week-on-week increase was much sharper.
  • There were 16,409 coronavirus patients in hospital in the UK on Tuesday, the last day for which a UK figure is available. That was up from 16,297 the day before. The latest week-on-week figures show UK hospital admissions up 12.2%.
Dashboard figures
Dashboard figures Photograph: Gov.UK

According to new polling from Ipsos Mori, 62% of Scots think Boris Johnson has handled the coronavirus pandemic badly. Only 19% think he has managed it well.

By contrast, 74% of Scots approve of the way Nicola Sturgeon has handled the crisis, and only 13% disapprove.

Polling on handling of coronavirus
Polling on handling of coronavirus Photograph: Ipsos MORI/Ipsos Mori

Updated

On the World at One earlier Dr Katherine Henderson, president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said she was “incredibly anxious” about what would happen if there was too much mixing at Christmas. She said that in areas with high levels of coronavirus, emergency departments were already crowded, and the situation could get worse if people were to “take the brakes off”.

She told the programme:

I’m incredibly anxious. I think until we see community transmission rates much further down, I think it’s really difficult to say we should be doing this [opening up significantly for Christmas].

It’s a date in the month. I know it’s culturally important, but so are other dates in other people’s calendars ...

If Covid cases become hospital admissions, and then sadly go on to be deaths, we will regret a Christmas season that’s given Granny Covid for Christmas, as opposed to let’s work our way, step by step, through a rational, controlled plan to come out the other side of this, when we’ve got a vaccine, into spring and we can actually start having a much more normal society.

Updated

One of the UK’s first Covid-19 mass vaccination centres could be set up in a sports arena, PA Media reports. Derby city council confirmed talks were under way with the government to use Derby Arena as a temporary facility to help administer the vaccine developed by Pfizer.

Updated

Here is my colleague Daniel Boffey’s story on the UK-EU trade talks being suspended.

A drug used to treat rheumatoid arthritis can improve clinical outcomes of critically ill patients with Covid-19, according to early results from a trial led by Imperial College London. Tocilizumab, a medicine that suppresses the immune system and reduces inflammation, has been shown to be effective in treating patients in intensive care units with severe Covid-19.

As PA Media reports, this was when compared with patients who did not receive any immune-modulating drugs, which help to activate, boost or restore normal immune function.

Updated

From the FT’s Sebastian Payne

Public Health Wales has recorded 1,048 further coronavirus cases. That is up from 640 yesterday and 867 a week ago today, but down from 1,272 two weeks ago today.

And there have been 23 further deaths. That is down from 41 yesterday, 34 a week ago today and 30 two weeks ago today.

A man walking past the Christmas window display in a shop in London today.
A man walking past the Christmas window display in a shop in London today. Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Reuters

A department store has closed after it was issued with £17,000 in fines for breaching lockdown rules for non-essential retailers, PA Media reports. In its news release, Middlesbrough council did not name the town centre store which was issued with several fixed penalty notices and a prohibition notice for failing to close as required under Covid-19 regulations. According to the council, the business has now said it will no longer trade while the restrictions are in place.

Updated

And on the subject of the UK-EU trade talks, here’s the opening of a Twitter thread from John Peet, the Economist’s political and Brexit editor, explaining why he is more sceptical than others about the chances of a deal being struck.

From ITV’s Europe editor, James Mates

Barnier 'going into isolation after team member tests positive'

Michel Barnier, the EU’S chief Brexit negotiator, is going to have to self-isolate after a member of his team tested positive (see 2.41pm), according to Sky’s Adam Parsons.

Michel Barnier.
Michel Barnier. Photograph: Simon Dawson/Reuters

Updated

This is from Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president.

Downing Street said it has been discussing with the European commission what to do about the UK-EU trade talks after a negotiator tested positive. (See 2.41pm.) A No 10 spokesman said:

The commission has informed us that an official in their delegation has tested positive for Covid -19. We are discussing with them the implications for the negotiations. We have been, and will continue to, act in line with public health guidelines and to ensure the health and welfare our teams.

National debt could reach 105% of GDP due to Covid borrowing, Treasury head tells MPs

National debt levels might reach 105% of GDP as a result of government spending to support the UK through the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Treasury’s senior civil servant.

Sir Tom Scholar told MPs his team was still waiting to see official forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) but that the UK economy was likely to experience the worst annual contraction for the past three centuries. As PA Media reports, Scholar told the public accounts committee that the OBR forecasts would be published alongside next week’s spending review and that they were “likely to show a very serious impact on the economy”.

He said:

The Bank of England in their forecast a week ago said that they expect the economy in 2020 to have contracted by 11% compared with the previous year, which is the biggest annual contraction for 300 years. It is extremely serious ...

We’ll get the precise numbers next week but, in their monthly estimate in August, the OBR were projecting borrowing this year of something like £370bn, or 19% of GDP – an increase from 2.5% of GDP (in March), and a debt level not of something like 75% but of something more like over 100%, 105% maybe.

But Scholar said the IMF’s guidance was to continue to provide support now to avoid a great economic shock later.

The approach taken by this government, and I think nearly every other developed country’s government, has been to provide extensive, generous, short-term support in order to minimise the long-term consequences of the short-term disruption.

The IMF have said ... there will be a time for fiscal consolidation in every country but that time is not yet – the priority for now is short-term support for the economy and actually that’s the best way to achieve medium-term and long-term fiscal sustainability.

Updated

Tony Connelly, RTÉ’s Europe editor, posted a useful Twitter thread on the latest state of play in the UK-EU trade talks earlier, before the announcement that a negotiator had tested positive. (See 2.41pm.) It starts here.

Updated

Covid case rates falling for most age groups in England, latest figures show

Covid-19 case rates in England have fallen for most adult age groups, though they are continuing to rise among people over 70, according to the latest weekly surveillance report (pdf) from Public Health England.

As PA Media reports, the highest rate is still among 20- to 29-year-olds, which stood at 362.1 cases per 100,000 people in the week to November 15, down from 389.9 in the previous week.

Rates have also dropped among 30- to 39-year-olds (from 338.6 to 324.3), 40- to 49-year-olds (316.3 to 313.7), 50- to 59-year-olds (306.1 to 302.3) and 60- to 69-year-olds (217.5 to 209.6).

But rates have risen slightly for 70- to 79-year-olds, from 146.1 to 147.5, while for those aged 80 and over, rates have climbed from 235.5 to 245.3.

The rate has also increased for 10- to 19-year-olds, from 232.8 to 257.4.

Coronavirus cases by age group in England
Coronavirus cases by age group in England Photograph: PHE

Updated

UK-EU trade talks suspended after negotiator tests positive

The UK-EU trade talks in Brussels have been suspended after an EU negotiator tested positive for coronavirus, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has revealed.

David Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator, posted on Twitter that the health of the negotiating teams must come first.

Obviously, this is about the worst possible time for any delay. Early next week has been described as about the last realistic deadline for a deal.

Updated

NHS England has recorded 346 further coronavirus hospital deaths. There were 96 in the Midlands, 89 in the north-west, 71 in the north-east and Yorkshire, 29 in London, 22 in the south-east, 20 in the east of England and 19 in the south-west. The details are here.

That is up from 282 yesterday, 317 a week ago today and 236 two weeks ago today.

Updated

The proportion of businesses in the UK that are trading has fallen to 82%, its lowest level since early August, according to a report from the Office for National Statistics out this morning.

A Covid-19 vaccine is not a “silver bullet”, UK experts have warned, urging the government to reform test and trace, restore public trust and control the virus at the borders.

Addressing a virtual meeting of the parliamentary group on coronavirus today, they briefed MPs and peers on the Covid-secure UK strategy, designed to break the cycle of boom and bust lockdowns before achieving immunity through vaccination.

The three-step strategy developed by cross-party MPs and leading science and medical experts entails bringing the reproduction number below 1 and reducing community transmission, fighting infection at the borders and planning to enable a rapid vaccine rollout.

Speaking after the briefing, organised by the campaign group March for Change, Martin McKee, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the Guardian:

Vaccination is really important, but it’s going to take a while and it comes back to the problem that it’s not abundantly clear that there’s any real strategy in the UK. One of the things I said [at the meeting] is: ‘Wouldn’t it be wonderful if a minister could stand up with a flip chart on the flow chart of, say, how all the different things fit together?’ But I’ve never seen one and I don’t think there is one. I mean, maybe there is, but none of us have ever seen that.

Stephen Reicher, a professor of psychology at the University of St Andrews and a member of the behavioural science advisory group to Sage (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies), said he told the meeting there had been a “critical” loss of public trust by the government. “It’s really important, and it becomes even more important when it comes to vaccines, because we know that a lot of people are hesitant,” he said.

The Covid-secure UK strategy is backed by MPs, including Layla Moran, Dr Dan Poulter, Dr Philippa Whitford, Munira Wilson, Caroline Lucas and Clive Lewis.

Updated

And this is from the Labour peer Stewart Wood on the defence spending announcement.

Here is some comment from journalists on Boris Johnson’s defence spending announcement.

From the BBC’s Gordon Corera

From the FT’s George Parker

From the BBC’s Mark Urban

From the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush

From ITV’s Carl Dinnen

From the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman

Key extracts from Johnson's statement on defence spending

Here is the full text of Boris Johnson’s statement to MPs on defence spending.

And here are some key excerpts.

On how defence spending has been cut under previous governments

For decades, British governments have trimmed and cheese-pared our defence budget, and if we go on like this, we risk waking up to discover that our armed forces – the pride of Britain – have fallen below the minimum threshold of viability, and once lost, they could never be regained.

That outcome would not only be craven, it would jeopardise the security of the British people.

On how the era of defence spending cuts is ending

I have decided that the era of cutting our defence budget must end – and it ends now.

I am increasing defence spending by £24.1bn over the next four years. That’s £16.5bn more than our manifesto commitment - raising it as a share of GDP to at least 2.2% exceeding our Nato pledge, and investing £190bn over the next four years - more than any other European country and more than any other Nato ally, except the United States.

On the threats facing the UK

The international situation is now more perilous and intensely competitive than at any time since the cold war.

Everything we do in this country – every job, every business, even how we shop and what we eat – depends on a basic minimum of global security.

Our people are sustained by a web of lifelines, oxygen pipes that must be kept open: open shipping lanes, a functioning internet, safe air corridors, reliable undersea cables, and tranquillity in distant straits.

This pandemic has offered a taste of what happens when elemental requirements are suddenly in question.

On the need to modernise the armed forces

The latest advances will multiply the fighting power of every warship, aircraft and infantry unit many times over, and the prizes will go to the swiftest and most agile nations, not necessarily the biggest.

We can achieve as much as British ingenuity and expertise allow.

We will need to act speedily to remove or reduce less relevant capabilities – and this will allow our new investment to be focused on the technologies that will revolutionise warfare, forging our military assets into a single network designed to overcome the enemy.

A soldier in hostile territory will be alerted to a distant ambush by sensors on satellites or drones, instantly transmitting a warning, using artificial intelligence to devise the optimal response, and offering an array of options, from summoning an air strike to ordering a swarm attack by drones or paralysing the enemy with cyber weapons.

New advances will surmount the old limits of logistics.

Our warships and combat vehicles will carry “directed energy weapons”, destroying targets with inexhaustible lasers and for them the phrase “out of ammunition” will become redundant.

Nations are racing to master this new doctrine of warfare and our investment is designed to place Britain among the winners.

On plans for the navy

We shall use our extra defence spending to restore Britain’s position as the foremost naval power in Europe, taking forward our plans for eight Type 26 and five Type 31 frigates, and support ships to supply our carriers.

We are going to develop the next generation of warships, including multi-role research vessels and Type 32 frigates.

And this will spur a renaissance of British shipbuilding across the UK – in Glasgow and Rosyth, Belfast, Appledore and Birkenhead – guaranteeing jobs and illuminating the benefits of the union in the white light of the arc welder’s torch.

If there was one policy which strengthens the UK in every possible sense, it is building more ships for the Royal Navy.

Updated

In the Commons, Jeremy Hunt tells Boris Johnson his defence spending announcement is “fantastic”. He reminds Johnson that, in the Tory leadership contest last year, Hunt was arguing for defence spending to start rising towards 3% of GDP.

But he says aid spending should not be cut. If it does get cut, it won’t be increased again, Hunt says.

Johnson says the UK will continue to be a world leader in aid.

Updated

In the Commons Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, asks Boris Johnson for an assurance that that the Black Watch regiment would not be disbanded. Johnson said he could give that assurance. “Of course we’re going to guarantee the Black Watch,” he said.

The MoD has been tweeting about this too.

Back in the Commons David Davis, the Conservative former Brexit secretary, tells Boris Johnson that this announcement is “the best and most intelligent defence statement” he has heard in the last 25 years. But he asks if the overall size of the armed forces will shrink.

Johnson says the plans involve no redundancies.

Rugby union biggest winner in sport's £300m 'winter survival package'

The government has confirmed £300m in emergency funding for spectator sports in England, with rugby union by far the largest beneficiary, my colleague Paul MacInnes reports.

From Tom Newton Dunn of Times Radio

Updated

Sturgeon says R in Scotland now slightly below 1

Nicola Sturgeon has disclosed the rate of Covid-19 infection in Scotland, the R number, is now slightly below 1 but she said the rate of decline in many parts of Scotland remained too slow to ease up on the toughest population restrictions.

She said the fall in the number to below 1, which implies infections are not escalating, “indicate the current tough policies we’ve had in place have had their effect”.

Even so, the three-week near-lockdown affecting more than 2 million people living in 11 councils across central Scotland would come into force at 6pm on Friday, she said.

In an update on the latest Covid infection data at Holyrood, Sturgeon said 1,089 new infections were detected in the last 24 hours, taking Scotland’s total to 85,612, with 1,212 people in hospital and 85 in intensive care. Another 50 fatalities were also registered of people with a confirmed Covid infection.

Updated

Covid responsible for 11% of deaths in England this year, ONS says

England witnessed its highest death rate in over a decade in the year to the end of October as a result of the Covid pandemic, according to new data released by the Office for National Statistics.

The monthly deaths bulletin, which is adjusted to account for changes in age and population over time, shows that there were 1,026.7 deaths per 100,000 people, significantly higher than in all years between 2009 and 2019.

The equivalent figure for Wales was 1,076.1 deaths per 100,000 people which, while higher than the first 10 months of 2019, was not significantly different from in 2018.

The data shows that, in the vast majority of cases where coronavirus was mentioned on a person’s death certificate, Covid-19 was also the primary cause of death: 91.8% in England and 88.9% in Wales.

In the period from January to the end of October Covid-19 was the underlying cause of death in 11.1% of all deaths that occurred in England (50,012 deaths) and 9.1% of in Wales (2,629 deaths), the third most common cause of death in both countries after dementia including Alzheimers, and heart disease.

Mortality rates for England and Wales over last 20 years
Mortality rates for England and Wales over last 20 years Photograph: ONS

Updated

Andrew Mitchell, the Conservative former international development secretary, asks for an assurance that the UK will continue to spend 0.7% of national income on international aid, as his party promised in its manifesto. He quotes James Mattis, the former US general and defence secretary, as saying that for every dollar cut from the aid budget, he has to spend another dollar on ammunition.

Johnson refuses to give Mitchell the commitment he wants, instead just saying the UK can be proud of its record on international aid.

Updated

In the Commons Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, asks Johnson for an assurance that after the UK leaves the post-Brexit transition, it will still have access to all the EU security databases it needs to keep people safe.

Johnson says he has been assured that, from next year, the UK will continue to receive all the international cooperation it needs to protect its citizens.

Updated

The Welsh government has also published performance figures today for test, trace and protect – its equivalent to England’s NHS test and trace.

On key figures, the Welsh version is doing better.

Updated

Johnson is responding to Starmer. He accuses him of “humbug”. Until December last year Starmer wanted to install Jeremy Corbyn as PM, someone who wanted to scrap the armed forces and pull out of Nato.

(Both those claims about Corbyn are untrue, although before becoming Labour leader Corbyn was critical of Nato.)

He says Labour refused to vote for the overseas operations bill, that would have protected members of the armed forces from vexatious prosecutions.

Sir Keir Starmer says under his leadership defence will always be a top priority for Labour. He says Labour welcomes the announcement.

But this is “a spending announcement without a strategy”, he says.

And he says the government has not explained how this will be paid for.

The UK has the sharpest economic downturn of any European economy.

Will the money come from borrowing, from tax increases, or from cuts to other budgets?

Will the government keep its manifesto commitment to keep aid spending at 0.7% of gross national income?

If not, that will weaken the UK’s position on the international stage, he says.

Starmer says that the cuts that Johnson mentioned in the past took place under a Conservative government.

Will the size of the armed forces be reduced?

Starmer says the government has still not said what will happen after the post-Brexit transition. He says trade deals with 15 countries have still not been rolled over. Those account for trade worth £80bn, he says.

Johnson says there will be a new RAF space command.

The RAF will receive a new fighter system, so they can defeat any adversary in conflict.

Johnson says defence policy is above party politics.

Updated

Johnson says the country could ignore its defence, or leave its defence to its allies.

But he says he rejects both options.

The UK must be true to its history, and upgrade its defence capabilities, he says.

Next year will be a year of British leadership, with the UK chairing the G7, hosting the Cop26 conference and celebrating the 75th anniversary of the first UN meeting in London.

He says investing in new technology will make returns in defence investment larger.

In the future the prizes will go to the most agile defence forces, not necessarily the biggest, he says.

The UK will invest in the technologies that will revolutionise warfare, he says. He gives as an example a soldier in hostile technology receiving warnings via technological surveillance, and having a wide variety of options because of technology.

He says the concept of being “out of ammunition” should become redundant.

He says these investments should create 10,000 jobs every year – or 40,000 jobs in total.

The plan will cement the UK’s position as the major naval power in Europe, he says. And it will spur a “renaissance” in shipbuilding across the UK.

If there is one policy that strengthens the UK in every possible sense, it is building more ships for the navy, he says.

Updated

Johnson says MoD spending boost will take defence spending to 2.2% of GDP

Boris Johnson is addressing the Commons remotely, because he is still self-isolating in Downing Street.

He says the review of foreign and defence policy will conclude next year. But today he will announce its first outcome – in defence spending.

He says it would be a dereliction of duty to let defence spending fall further.

He refuses to “take up the scalpel”. The era of cuts in defence spending will stop now, he says.

He says the Ministry of Defence will get an extra £24.1bn over next four years, which is £16.5bn more than the Conservatives promised in their manifesto.

He says this will take defence spending to at least 2.2% of GDP – above the Nato target of 2%.

This is because the defence of the realm must come first, he says.

Updated

Boris Johnson's statement on defence spending

Boris Johnson is about to make a statement to MPs on defence spending.

Here is the No 10 news release about his plans. Here is our preview story.

And this sums up how Conservative MPs are promoting the announcement on Twitter.

We were expecting a Downing Street press conference this afternoon, because earlier this month No 10 said there was a plan to hold them regularly twice a week, with the PM doing one one Mondays and another minister doing one on Thursdays. But at the morning lobby briefing we were told we weren’t getting one today. Instead, there will be one tomorrow.

Updated

NHS test and trace has published its latest weekly performance figures (pdf). On the main indicators there is little change, and the service is continuing to miss its targets in key areas. Most test results for tests conducted outside hospitals are not delivered within 24 hours, despite the PM setting this as a target, although 69.1% of in-person results are received the next day. And only 60.5% of close contacts of people testing positive are reached, despite the target being 80%.

But the figures also contain a possible hint that the lockdown may be having an impact. In the week ending 11 November the number of positive tests increased by 11%, with 167,369 people testing positive. But the number of people getting tested was up 12%, reaching 1.7 million. And the positivity rate - the proportion of people testing positive - has fallen to 9.6%, from 9.7% the previous week.

This is the first time the positivity rate has gone down since August.

But this also coincides with the mass-testing pilot in Liverpool, and that may wholly or partly explain the shift.

% of people testing positive
% of people testing positive Photograph: NHSTT

Updated

This is from Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the medical journal the Lancet.

Updated

£16.5bn enough to modernise armed forces, says defence secretary

In interviews this morning about the defence spending settlement being announced by the PM later, Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said the £16.5bn increase was enough to modernise the armed forces. He said:

When I looked across at the armed forces today I saw them with equipment that was out-of-date. I saw our adversaries across the world having better equipment, the ability to attack us and harm us getting wider and wider from our capabilities.

And when that happens, time runs out, and you need to modernise your forces. You need to sometimes let go of some older capabilities and that takes money in order to first of all create the headroom to invest ...

This very large settlement for defence will allow us to fix the problems that we’ve inherited - the black hole that the NAO obviously identified - and allow headspace to modernise our forces.

My colleague Helen Pidd has more here.

But Dame Margaret Hodge, one of the Labour MPs most critical of Jeremy Corbyn over antisemitism, told the Today programme this morning that, if Corbyn had been readmitted to the parliamentary party, she would have left. She said:

It was completely wrong for the party to let Corbyn back in under a process that was shown, again, to be broken and politically corrupted, and I think it was completely right of Keir Starmer to deny Jeremy Corbyn the whip.

Jeremy Corbyn is not a Labour member of parliament, and that was what made it possible for me to take the decision really that I wouldn’t have to leave the party.

Diane Abbott, who was the shadow home secretary when Jeremy Corbyn was leader and is one of his closest political allies, claims that Sir Keir Starmer would have never won the Labour leadership if members had known how he would treat his predecessor.

Updated

Trying to have near-normal Christmas risks 'throwing fuel on fire' of Covid pandemic, says government science adviser

A scientist who advises the government as a member of Sage, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, has said that trying to allow people to have a near-normal Christmas risks “throwing fuel on the fire” of the Covid pandemic.

Andrew Hayward, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London (UCL), made the comment in an interview on the Today programme when he said that allowing families to mix at Christmas would pose “substantial risks”. Speaking in a personal capacity, Hayward said:

Mixing at Christmas does pose substantial risks, particularly in terms of bringing together generations with high incidence of infection with the older generations who currently have much lower levels of infection and are at most risk of dying if they catch Covid.

My personal view is we’re putting far too much emphasis on having a near-normal Christmas.

We know respiratory infections peak in January so throwing fuel on the fire over Christmas can only contribute to this.

Asked whether people should put the welfare of parents and grandparents first, Hayward said:

Well exactly. We’re on the cusp of being able to protect those elderly people who we love through vaccination and it would be tragic to throw that opportunity away and waste the gains we’ve made during lockdown by trying to return to normality over the holidays.

He said the rules were unnecessarily complicated.

When policies are undulating between stay at home to save lives, eat out to help out, the tier system, second lockdown and proposals for an amnesty on social distancing, it’s a highly inconsistent message.

Whereas in fact the things that people need to do to stay safe and to keep their loved ones safe are relatively simple. Avoid, as far as possible, indoor close contact with people outside of your household, avoid crowded places and protect the most vulnerable by not putting them at unnecessary risk.

And he said it was not enough to get R, the reproduction number, close to 1.

Approaching 1 is not good enough - that still means the infection is increasing. It needs to be clearly below 1 and it needs to get to low levels, rather than the high levels that we still have.

Currently R for the UK is estimated to be between 1 and 1.2

Updated

Minister says it is best to decide what follows lockdown close to its end, when its impact known

Although Gordon Brown is urging the government to make an announcement now about tightening rules for the next few weeks so that families can meet over Christmas (see 9.18am), Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said it was better to wait until near the end of the England-only lockdown (on 2 December) before announcing what comes next. He explained:

The best time is to make those decisions about how we can get together for Christmas, how we can get through this festive period, is when we have seen the impact of this lockdown on the figures ...

The best time for me to give you better advice, for the government to make that decision, is as close to the 2nd of December as possible.

I know some people would wish to know earlier, but if we were to do it now, and the facts were changing on the ground, we’ll end up having to change it again.

The University of Oxford is expected to release data on the efficacy of its coronavirus vaccine candidate in the coming weeks, with the latest trial results suggesting it produces a strong immune response in older adults, PA Media reports.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has welcomed the news that the vaccine generates a robust immune response in the elderly.

Speaking on the Today programme, Prof Andrew Pollard, head of Oxford’s vaccine trial team, said this development would help with the rollout of the vaccine. He explained:

We do know with these vaccines that adults tend to feel a bit ropey the day after they have been vaccinated ... but that was very, very much less, particularly in those who are over 70.

And that’s absolutely great news because if it’s well tolerated that’s going to really help with rollout should we be able to show that the vaccine actually works.

Corbyn should make full apology before being readmitted to PLP, says Gordon Brown

Here are some more lines from the Gordon Brown interviews this morning.

  • Brown said that Jeremy Corbyn should make a full apology for Labour’s failures to address antisemitism while he was leader before being allowed to return to the parliamentary party. He said:

Jeremy has got to make a full apology. No ifs, no buts, no caveats, no qualifying sentences. He has got to admit he got it wrong. There is no place for antisemitism, no place for any form of discrimination in our society. And if people are in any doubt about where he stands, he has got to make it absolutely clear that he will have no truck with antisemitism at any time in the future and until he makes that clear, Keir Starmer will, I suppose, continue to insist that he stays outside the Labour party in parliament, even though he is a member of the Labour party.

Corbyn’s allies would point out that he has apologised over antisemitism in the past (eg, here), although the statement he released on Tuesday, that led to his re-admission to the party, did not contain a full apology, but just an expression of “regret”.

  • Brown said Boris Johnson should do more to bring the nation together, and to involve all regions and nations of the UK in decision-making. He said:

[Johnson] has got to change his attitude. He has got to find a way of saying, ‘I am the prime minister of the United Kingdom, it is my job to bring people together. It is not my job to divide and rule’ ...

We have got to find a way of co-operating. Devolution is not about people breaking up, it’s not about people fighting, it’s not about standoffs all the time as we have seen during this crisis. It’s about people recognising that there are different local needs, finding a way of working together right across this great United Kingdom.

Unless we have a decision-making forum that involves the regions, the mayors and of course the first ministers with Boris Johnson, we won’t get the sort of unity that we need … We need to think about how we have a constitutional change that builds out of our experience that we didn’t get it quite right over Covid and we haven’t got it quite right over fighting the recession.

Brown has set out more details of the constitutional change he would like to see, including the creation of a “decision-making council of the regions and nations” and the replacement of the House of Lords with a “senate of the nations and regions based in the north”, in a long essay for the New Statesman.

  • Brown said the government should do more to help the self-employed who have lost work because of coronavirus.
Gordon Brown on Sky News
Gordon Brown on Sky News Photograph: Sky News

Updated

Gordon Brown urges PM to tighten rules now so families can mix at Christmas

Good morning. With ministers increasingly focused on what Covid rules will apply over Christmas, and to what extent families will be allowed to meet up, Gordon Brown, the former prime minister, has joined the debate, urging Boris Johnson to accept now England needs tighter rules now to allow restrictions to be relaxed over Christmas.

Brown told Sky News:

I found being prime minister you’ve got to be two steps ahead of events. You cannot be behind the curve. You’ve always got to be anticipating the next problem. And what he’s got to do, Boris Johnson, is say, ‘Look, if there is any doubt about whether we can lower the restrictions at Christmas, we’ve got to act now.’

And he told ITV’s Good Morning Britain.

Put in the measures now in the next few days that make it possible for us to make a reasoned decision about what we do in the Christmas week. I think you have to act now. Talking about what happens after Christmas is not as good as talking about what Boris Johnson could do today.

If he is worried that we can’t have a relaxation at Christmas, he needs to step up the measures now. Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Boris Johnson have to get together and find a basis on which we can have common rules so that people can, if it’s possible, travel to see their loved ones in different parts of the country.

Government scientific advisers have already said publicly that any relaxation of restrictions over Christmas will have to be offset by tighter rules at another point. But Brown seems to be advocating firmer rules now, or in early December, in the way that in Scotland Nicola Sturgeon has announced a near-lockdown for part of the country in part to create headroom for looser rules at Christmas.

Ministers are due to announce next week what will happen when the England-wide lockdown ends on 2 December and, when asked to confirm that what comes next will have to be stricter than what was in force before the lockdown started, they claim it is too early to make that decision. Brown is saying they should just get on with it.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: The ONS publishes its regular figures on Covid and the economy.

11am: NHS test and trace publishes its latest performance figures.

Around 12pm: Boris Johnson makes a statement to MPs announcing a four-year £16.5bn surge in defence spending.

12.20pm: Nicola Sturgeon takes first minster’s questions in the Scottish parliament.

Around 1.30pm: Nigel Huddleston, the sports minister, makes a statement to MPs about financial help for sports.

2pm: Public Health England publishes its weekly Covid surveillance report.

5pm: Downing Street is expected to hold a press conference.

Politics Live is now doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, like the defence announcement, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.

Here is our global coronavirus live blog.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Updated

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