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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

UK coronavirus: nearly 500 further deaths in 24 hours; MPs pass English lockdown rules by 516 votes to 38 – as it happened

Early evening summary

  • MPs have voted by a large majority to approve the English lockdown starting tomorrow – although 34 Conservatives actively rebelled. Some 32 voted against, two acted as tellers, and around 16 others reportedly abstained as a protest, including the former prime minister Theresa May. (See 5.46pm.) May spoke in the debate, saying that one of her concerns was that the government was “making it illegal to conduct an act of public worship”. Many MPs complained about the provisions banning collective worship, and in his speech winding up the debate Matt Hancock, the health secretary, hinted that the rules on this might be relaxed. (See 3.57pm.) But, for the Tory lockdown-sceptics, their main objections related to the economic damage the measures will cause, plus the intrusion on personal freedom. Although MPs have debated coronavirus endlessly in recent months, there have been relatively view votes on the lockdown restrictions being imposed and this was probably the most passionate and angry debate yet. Much of it has already been published here, on Hansard online. The rebels included MPs from all wings of the party, although the most prominent tended to be libertarian Brexiters. (One of the ironies was that they were demanding an economic impact assessment of lockdown - despite actively resisting the idea for Brexit.) Boris Johnson won the vote with a majority of 478, but many of the Conservative MPs who did support him stressed their reluctance to do so and the debate showed that, if he were to try to extend the lockdown in December, a much more serious mutiny would erupt.
Theresa May speaking in the debate.
Theresa May speaking in the debate. Photograph: Jessica Taylor/UK PARLIAMENT/AFP/Getty Images
  • David Frost, the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, has admitted that “wide divergences” remain between the two sides in the UK-EU trade talks. He made the comment on Twitter after it emerged that his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier, has told EU ambassadors that the UK is holding back on holding back on making the compromises necessary for a deal. (See 4.47pm.)

That’s all from me for today. But our coronavirus coverage continues here on our global coronavirus live blog.

And if you fancy a change from coronavirus, our US presidential election results blog is here.

Updated

According to HuffPost’s Paul Waugh, 21 Conservatives in total abstained.

Theresa May, the former prime minister, abstained in the lockdown vote, it’s emerged.

This technically makes Theresa May a rebel, because abstaining when you are meant to vote in favour amounts to defying the whip, although it’s a soft form of rebellion, and less provocative than voting against.

Weekly testing figures down 8%, government figures show

The coronavirus dashboard also shows the number of tests being carried out over the last seven days is down 8% from the previous seven days.

Gov.UK
Gov.UK Photograph: Gov.UK

Although today’s UK coronavirus figures show a near record high (see 4.15pm), the week-by-week comparison shows that the figures for the last seven days are only 2.4% up on the total for the previous week.

But hospital admissions are up 22% week on week, and deaths are up 36% week on week.

In England the number of patients in hospital with coronavirus has passed 10,000 for the first time since early May. There were 10,377 Covid patients in hospital yesterday.

And in England there were 952 hospital patients on ventilation yesterday. On Tuesday last week the number was 742.

Covid patients on mechanical ventilation
Covid patients on mechanical ventilation. Photograph: Gov.UK

Updated

From my colleague Josh Halliday

Updated

The 34 Conservatives who rebelled over lockdown legislation

The division list for the lockdown vote is now on the CommonsVotes app.

Of the 38 MPs who voted against, 32 were Tories, four were DUP MPs and one was an independent (Julian Lewis, who was elected as a Tory, but who lost the whip because he defied No 10 and got himself elected as chair of the intelligence and security committee instead of Chris Grayling, who was the Downing Street candidate).

The 32 Tories who voted against were:

Adam Afriyie

Peter Bone

Sir Graham Brady

Steve Brine

Sir Christopher Chope

Philip Davies

Jonathan Djanogly

Jackie Doyle-Price

Richard Drax

Sir Iain Duncan Smith

Marcus Fysh

Chris Green

James Grundy

Mark Harper

Gordon Henderson

David Jones

Tim Loughton

Craig Mackinlay

Stephen McPartland

Esther McVey

Huw Merriman

Anne Marie Morris

Sir Mike Penning

John Redwood

Andrew Rosindell

Henry Smith

Sir Desmond Swayne

Robert Syms

Derek Thomas

Sir Charles Walker

Craig Whittaker

William Wragg

There were also two Tory tellers for the noes, Steve Baker and Philip Hollobone.

And the four DUP MPs who voted against were:

Paul Girvan

Carla Lockhart

Ian Paisley

Sammy Wilson

UPDATE: There were 38 MPs voting against the government, according to the result announced in the chamber, but the CommonsVotes app only names 37 of them. I’m trying to find out who the other one was, or whether there was a counting mistake.

Updated

UK refusing to make key compromises in trade talks, EU ambassadors told

In Brussels Michel Barnier has warned EU ambassadors that Boris Johnson is holding back on making key compromises in the ongoing trade and security talks, pushing the Brexit negotiations to the wire.

With two weeks left to strike a deal before parliamentary ratification will need to begin, a breakthrough on the most contentious issues is yet to be struck, the EU’s chief negotiator is understood to have told the member states’ representatives. Both sides are seeking to keep the detail of the negotiation beyond the public gaze. The update was the first since the negotiations restarted nearly two weeks ago.

Barnier said there had been “considerable progress on legal texts at many negotiating tables”, according to sources, but he added that there had still been “little movement” on the most contentious issues.

The two sides are stuck on the level of access to British waters the UK will provide to EU fishing fleets, fair competition rules for business, including rules on domestic subsidies, and the mechanism in the final treaty for resolving future disputes.

“One would have thought a fortnight from the deadline more movement under the radar would be apparent but so far the [European] commission hasn’t been able to tell us that things are moving”, said a senior EU diplomat.

The UK will leave the EU’s single market and customs union on 31 December. The prime minister has said he would prefer a trade deal with Brussels but that the country would prosper without a negotiated outcome despite the heavy tariffs that would be put on British exports to the bloc.

Barnier is expected to return to London for a new round of negotiations with the British team led by David Frost on Sunday, according to EU sources.

Michel Barnier in Brussels today.
Michel Barnier in Brussels today. Photograph: Johanna Geron/Reuters

Updated

These are from ITV’s Robert Peston.

From Sky’s Beth Rigby

Here are some more quotes from the debate from Conservative MPs who said they would be voting against the government.

From Huw Merriman

When looking at the evidence of the regional lockdown, I just do not believe that we have given it significant time to properly tell us whether it is working or not.

I’ve been asked have I met anybody who has lost a loved one through Covid, and the answer to that is, tragically, yes I have - and my heart goes out to them.

But I have also the funeral of a friend in the last year who took his life having lost his job. I have met people who have not attended hospital appointments and now have terminal illnesses and wish to goodness they had.

From Conservative former minister Tim Loughton

National lockdown is a big step, the science for it is questionable, the business case against it is overwhelming.

Why are we doing it at this stage before seeing the effects of regional lockdown?

So, for me, the case is not proven, the measures proposed are not proportionate, and I cannot vote for them.

From Craig Mackinlay

I’m being asked to spend £50bn extra today, or perhaps even more. There is no data as to what this means on other health issues, there is no assessment for what this means for families not able to see grandchildren or to see off loved ones in their final days.

I’m here to make a decision. I will not be abstaining, I’m paid to have a view and tonight I will be voting against this, I’m sorry.

Oxford Circus in London, where shoppers were today making last-minute visits to shops before the lockdown starts tomorrow.
Oxford Circus in London, where shoppers were today making last-minute visits to shops before the lockdown starts tomorrow. Photograph: Andy Hall/The Observer

MPs pass English lockdown regulations by 516 votes to 38

The lockdown regulations have passed by 516 votes to 38 - a majority of 478.

Most, but not all, of those 38 MPs voting against are likely to be Conservatives. We will get the full division list later.

UK records 492 more coronavirus deaths and 25,177 more cases

The government has updated its coronavirus dashboard, and today’s numbers are striking.

  • The UK has recorded 492 further deaths. That is up from 397 yesterday, and it’s a 59% increase on the total from a week ago today (310). It is also the highest daily death toll since 19 May, when 500 deaths were recorded.
  • The UK has recorded 25,177 further cases. That is the second highest figure on record, beaten only by the total for 21 October (26,688).

Updated

The two tellers for the noes are the Conservative MPs Steve Baker and Philip Hollobone.

The two tellers for the ayes are Tom Pursglove and Leo Docherty, who are both government whips.

MPs vote on lockdown regulations

Back in the Commons Hancock ends his speech saying he has “increasing confidence” every day that science will supply a way through.

MPs are now voting on the regulations.

Public Health Wales has reported a further 44 coronavirus deaths, taking the total in Wales since the start of the pandemic to 1,939.

The number of deaths is the highest daily figure reported by PHW since the start of the pandemic’s second phase - but a time lag meant the deaths weres pread across a number of days and did not all occur during a 24 hour period.

Dr Robin Howe, incident director for the Covid-19 outbreak response at PHW, said: “Due to a reporting time lag, some of the deaths included in today’s total are from previous days.”

There have been 1,202 new cases in Wales and the rate of infection across the nation is 250 cases per 100,000 people. The highest rates are in Blaenau Gwent, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taf, all areas of south Wales.

Wales’ minister for mental health, Eluned Morgan, said coronavirus had impacted on many people’s physical health “but is also taking a toll on people’s mental and emotional health and well-being”. She said:

There are those who are feeling more than just a general sense of frustration with this pandemic, many are struggling with feelings of anger, anxiety, depression, fear, worry and even hopelessness.

Hancock says many MPs asked about worship.

Ministers are talking to faith leaders to try to reach an agreement on this, he says.

  • Hancock hints ministers could relax the lockdown ban on communal worship.

Hancock says Theresa May (and others) have asked about the impact of lockdown on the economy.

He says the government knows the impact will be serious.

Many MPs raised mental health. Hancock says he has discussed this issue with the Royal College of Psychiatrists. The government will do all it can to keep normal NHS services open, he says.

Steve Brine (Con) asks what can be done to ensure people are better at self-isolating when they need to.

Hancock says the proportion of people self-isolating when asked is going up. The support available to them is increasing. And test and trace is getting more resources, he says.

He says he does not accept it is having no impact. It is, he says.

Updated

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is winding up the debate.

He acknowledges the seriousness of what they are voting for. But they must drive the virus down, he says.

Mass testing is being rolled out, he says.

And a vaccine will be rolled out as soon as it is safe, he says.

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, is winding up the Commons debate now for Labour.

He says more time should have been set aside for such an important debate.

Labour is backing the measures, he says.

But, if private prayer is allowed in churches, then congregational prayer should be allowed too, he says.

He says testing should be used to ensure people can visit relatives in care homes. For many of them, this will be their last Christmas, he says.

And he says the government must avoid having a “hokey cokey of lockdowns”, as the Cabinet Office minister Penny Mordaunt suggested might be necessary yesterday.

Updated

The number of coronavirus patients in intensive care has doubled in the past fortnight in Greater Manchester, accounting for more than half of all critically ill people in the region’s hospitals.

There were 126 Covid patients in Greater Manchester’s intensive care units on Tuesday, up from 62 on the 20 October, according to official figures.

Sir Richard Leese, the leader of Manchester city council, said that concerns about the NHS’s ability to cope had “increased significantly” in recent days following an influx of coronavirus patients as well as people attending A&E unnecessarily. He said:

When I talk to people from the hospitals, certainly their level of concern has increased significantly over the last seven days.

It’s been a particularly bad weekend and the signs are certainly very, very worrying. So I think we ought to share that worry, share that concern, and it ought to inform our behaviour.

Covid patients occupy more than 30% of bed capacity in one or two of the region’s hospitals, Leese said, meaning their ability to continue carrying out non-Covid elective surgery “begins to disappear”.

He said NHS staff were coping remarkably well under the strain and that intensive care capacity was being expanded to cope with the influx. Manchester’s NHS Nightingale facility has also begun taking non-Covid patients in recovery.

The total number of non-emergency hospital beds occupied by Covid patients has risen by 70% in the past two weeks, from 615 on 20 October to 1,049 on Tuesday.

In a press conference on Wednesday, Leese and the Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, said they were not confident that the infection rate would have fallen sufficiently for Boris Johnson to lift the national lockdown on 2 December.

Burnham said he was seeking a “debate” with the government about allowing Greater Manchester to be in tier 2 of the restrictions rather than the more severe tier 3 whenever the national rules are lifted.

The Nightingale hospital in Manchester.
The Nightingale hospital in Manchester. Photograph: Jon Super/AP

Updated

In the Commons Sir Bob Neill, the Tory chair of the justice committee, says the lockdown measures are not proportionate. There is no justification for the ban on outdoor sports or church services, he says.

And there has been no assessment of the economic impact.

He says he cannot support the government. And because the regulations have been drafted in a hurry, they allow you to visit an estate agent but not a solicitor, even though, if you are buying a home, you will need to visit a solicitor.

Updated

A sign reading ‘ HOPE’ inside Peterborough Cathedral today, ahead of the lockdown.
A sign reading ‘Hope’ inside Peterborough Cathedral today, ahead of the lockdown. Photograph: Matthew Childs/Reuters

Updated

Back in the Commons Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister, says he is grateful for being invited into No 10 for a briefing with the scientists. He says he had hoped to “take the wheels off the data”, but that did not happen.

He says there are different sets of data. Although some figures say case numbers are going up, others are not. He cites this tweet from Prof Tim Spector, who runs the Covid symptom study.

He says he cannot support the regulations.

But he says he will, for the next 28 days, cooperate with the government. After that, if the policy continues, he will become much more disruptive, he suggests.

Updated

Northern Ireland has recorded 10 further coronavirus deaths, according to today’s update on the Department of Health’s dashboard.

That is one more than the total for last Wednesday (9) and double the total for the Wednesday two weeks ago (5).

But the figures for cases are more encouraging. Some 679 cases have been recorded today. A week ago the figure was 840, and two weeks ago the figure was 1,039.

Northern Ireland started its own version of a lockdown two and a half weeks ago, and so it is not surprising the case numbers are falling. Here is a chart from the dashboard illustrating the trend.

Seven-day rolling average of positive cases in Northern Ireland
Seven-day rolling average of positive cases in Northern Ireland. Photograph: Department of Health, NI

Updated

The Department of Health and Social Care has also published new guidance relating to the lockdown for the clinically extremely vulnerable, the 2 million people asked to shield during the first lockdown. It’s here.

Updated

New guidelines have been outlined by the government allowing care home residents to receive “safe” visits from Thursday, when England enters its second national lockdown, PA Media reports.

The Department of Health and Social Care cited a number of ways to allow visitors, including having designated visitor pods with floor-to-ceiling screens and separate entrances, as well as window-side visits. Outdoor visits with one other person will be permitted, provided it can be accessed by the loved-one without going into the main building. The guidance also encourages the use of video calls.

More specific guidelines will be published on the government website “soon”, a department spokesman said.

The NHS in England is returning to its highest state of alert amid warnings that hospitals will continue filling up with Covid-19 patients for at least another two weeks, my colleague Denis Campbell reports.

In the Commons Jonathan Djanogly (Con) says he has been incredibly impressed by the resilience of local businesses. They deserve more than knowing their MP has voted for another lockdown, he says.

The economic costs are not being taken into account, he says. There should be a proper assessment of the damage.

Lockdown or no lockdown, we have to learn to live with the virus, he says.

NHS England has announced 302 further coronavirus hospital deaths. There were 93 in the north-west, 66 in the north-east and Yorkshire, 58 in the Midlands, 33 in London, 21 in the east of England, 21 in the south-east and 10 in the south-west. The details are here.

That’s up 74% on the total for last Wednesday (174) and more than treble the total for the Wednesday two weeks ago (94).

Updated

Back in the Commons Mark Harper, the Conservative former chief whip, claims the government is introducing the lockdown on the basis of modelling that has been shown to be wrong. He says it was out of date by the time it was used at the PM’s press conference on Saturday.

He says he also objects to the way the regulations will allow officials to use reasonable force to enforce these rules. He says he has asked for assurances on this point, but has not had them. He will vote against the regulations, he says.

From the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves

Graham Brady says government intruding too far into family life with lockdown measures

Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee, says he is glad that the debate will go on for three hours. Originally a 90-minute debate was planned. Brady thanks the Speaker for intervening to make it longer. But it should have been a full day, he says.

He says he will vote against the regulations with “greater conviction” than in any other vote in his 23 years as an MP.

He says the government should be publishing an economic impact assessment.

He says he wants to raise a fundamental question: does the government have the right to take these measures?

The thing that troubles me most is that the government is reaching too far into the private and family lives of our constituents.

I think there is an, unintended perhaps, but an arrogance in assuming the government has the right to ... tell people, whether they can visit their elderly parents in a care home, whether it has the right to tell parents they can’t see their children, or their grandchildren, whether it has any right, for heaven’s sake, to tell consenting adults with who they are allowed to sleep.

Does it have the right to ban acts of collective worship? I’m glad the churches are standing up against this objecting because earlier in the year I thought they possibly went a little too quietly.

And banning golf? Brady says when the PM was challenged on this on Monday, he could not defend the golf ban; the PM just said you could not unpick the package.

He ends by saying he cannot be the only MP to have had a constituent at his surgery in tears because they cannot visit an elderly parent in a care home.

Graham Brady
Graham Brady. Photograph: Parliament TV

Updated

Philip Davies (Con) says the government was meant to spend the first lockdown building capacity in the NHS. But that has not happened. Instead the health secretary, Matt Hancock, has focused on coming up with rules that micro-manage people’s lives.

The rules don’t make sense, he says. He says that is why people have lost faith in them.

How many job losses would it take before the secretary of state accepted that we needed a different strategy? How many jobs is he prepared to sacrifice to keep on with this policy of lockdowns and arbitrary restrictions - two million, four million, six million? People would like to know.

Nobody voting for this motion tonight is offering to sacrifice their own job in order to pursue this lockdown policy - of course not. They are just expecting millions of others in our country to sacrifice their jobs to pursue this policy.

How many jobs is the government willing to sacrifice before it gives up on this strategy?

He says the people who came up with this policy are not offering to give up their jobs, or 20% of their salary. But they are expecting other people to make these sacrifices.

“It stinks,” he says.

No wonder so many people have no faith in politicians. No wonder so many people think there’s one law for us and one law for politicians.”

I never thought I would see the day a so-called Conservative minister would stand up and urge parliament to further sacrifice our most basic of freedoms, collapse the economy and destroy jobs - all to pursue a failed strategy.

Philip Davies
Philip Davies. Photograph: Parliament TV

Updated

Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, has said that Boris Johnson’s refusal at PMQs to say that Donald Trump should not declare himself winner of the presidential elections until the votes have been counted (see 12.05pm) was “one of the most cowardly statements” she has heard.

Updated

Munira Wilson (Lib Dem) says she never expected to have to take a decision like this today. She is “horrified” by what is being proposed, and “horrified” by the fact that parliament has been put in this position because the government has dithered and delayed.

The Lib Dems feel they have no option but to support these measures, she says.

But she says there is not “a shred of evidence” that the government will use the time available to address the problems with test and trace.

Boris Johnson in Downing Street.
Boris Johnson in Downing Street. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Andrew Murrison (Con) says he has agonised over this vote more than any other. But he says he will be supporting the government, partly because of the decision to keep schools open, partly because of the wide degree of uncertainty, and partly because he knows the PM shares his libertarian instincts and has pushed back against some of the advice he has had.

Derek Twigg (Lab) says he is concerned about the impact of the lockdown on his constituents. He says the government has not said how it will protect the vulnerable.

And he says the impact on businesses would be severe. It is unfair when so many have taken steps to make themselves Covid-secure, he says. And he says there is no evidence to justify measures like the ban on church services.

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader and former work and pensions secretary, says he cannot support the government.

This is arguably the second biggest decision taken by a government since the second world war, with the March lockdown being the biggest decision.

He says this decision is being taken on the basis of Sage advice. The leak of this on Friday was appalling, he says. It was appalling because it was designed to bounce the government into a decision. He says even Prof Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, has admitted that the 4,000 deaths a day projection was wrong.

This decision was not necessary now, he says. He says the government could have kept going with the tier system. It was beginning to work.

He calls for an economic impact assessment of the damage a lockdown will do.

Updated

Graham Stringer (Lab) says he will not be supporting the government.

He says we have had “exaggerated claims” from both the government and its scientific advisers about the impact of not having a lockdown. But we have not had evidence about the impact a lockdown will have, he says.

He says there has been an “economic catastrophe” in his own constituency, Blackley and Broughton in Greater Manchester.

He also says a centralised test and trace system will not work.

Sir Peter Bottomley (Con) is backing the government. But he says he thinks outdoor sports should be allowed. He does not see why playing tennis or golf should be banned.

Patrick Grady (SNP) starts by pointing out that Boris Johnson did not stay in the chamber to listen to the speech by his predecessor.

He says the SNP will not be voting on this measure, because it is England-only.

And he picks up on the PM’s claim that the SNP won’t take yes for an answer on furlough. They will take yes for an answer when it is put in writing, in a letter to the Scottish government, he says.

May condemns '4,000 deaths' chart used by government to justify lockdown

Theresa May, the former prime minister, is speaking next in the debate. She says she does not envy ministers having to make these decisions.

Parliament will make better decisions if it is well informed, she says.

She says she looked at the Sage paper from 21 September. But Sage was not proposing just one circuit breaker, she says. There would have been many, she says. She says she doubts whether any economy could survive that.

She says we need a proper assessment of the way the tiered system is working.

And other figures have been flawed. She says there was a graph showing deaths rising to 4,000 deaths a day. But if it was right, we would already be at 1,000 deaths a day. That chart was wrong before it was even used, she says.

She says MPs also need data on the costs of a lockdown, to human health and to the economy.

The government must have made this analysis, she says.

(In part they have. Sage has published a 188-page document covering some of these issues. It’s here [pdf].)

And she says the decision to make acts of worship illegal sets a precedent that could be misused in the future by a more hostile government.

My concern is that the government today making it illegal to conduct an act of public worship, for the best of intentions, sets a precedent that could be misused for a government in the future with the worst of intentions.

And it has unintended consequences.

The Covid-secure Remembrance service in Worcester Cathedral is now going to be turned into a pre-recorded online service.

Surely those men and women who gave down their lives for our freedom deserve better than this?

May ends her speech saying MPs need right figures, right data, and proper information.

Theresa May
Theresa May Photograph: Parliament TV

Updated

Starmer says it is essential to fix test and trace.

Four in 10 people who should be contacted are not being contacted, he says.

He says Labour has been going on about this for months. Promises come “by the wheelbarrow”. But nothing happens, he says.

He says, if this is not fixed in the next four weeks, we will be going around this circle for months.

Starmer asks how it has helped the economy to delay the lockdown. This one will now have to last four weeks.

And how did it make sense to miss half-term?

Schools could have started half term a day early, and used the following Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday as inset days, he says.

Updated

Starmer says the plans for 2 December are vague.

The explanatory notes in the regulations show just how vague the plans for December 2 are. They say this and I quote from them, ‘it is expected that at the end of the 28-day period, the previous alert levels introduced in October will once again be brought into force. This policy is subject to review’.

There are millions of people who’ve been in restrictions for many months who are going to be very worried about that paragraph. If you take Leicester, Leicester’s been in restrictions for over 120 days.

It’s very hard to make the argument to the people of Leicester that the restrictions are working.

The public’s experience is that areas in tier 1 go up to tier 2, and then up to tier 3.

If the system was working, areas in tier 2 would go down to tier 1.

The system “simply isn’t working”, he says. People know this system will not keep them safe.

Updated

Starmer says the chief executive of Mind has said the second lockdown could be even worse for mental health than the first. He says he hopes MPs will be able to address this.

He says he also wants action on domestic violence.

Sir Keir Starmer is speaking now.

He says he does not want to be implementing these measures. He does not want parliament to be ruling on some of these matters at all.

I’m very concerned about the impact on businesses who’ve spent thousands of pounds becoming Covid-secure doing everything the Government asked only now to be forced to shut.

But while these regulations are not in any way desirable or perfect, they are now necessary because the government’s lost control of the virus and we will support them.

He says if anyone is disputing the trajectory of the disease, they should remember that six weeks ago there were just 11 deaths, and 4,000 cases, a day.

To get the virus under control, “we do need now to take decisive action”, he says.

Sir Keir Starmer
Sir Keir Starmer Photograph: Parliament TV

Updated

Johnson ends his speech by saying these regulations represent the “best and safest path” for people and the economy.

Johnson says the government has asked more of the public than any other government in peacetime.

The public have responded magnificently, he says.

He says he wishes this had been enough to defeat the autumn surge.

He says he is more optimistic than he has been in many months.

But the situation is grave, he says.

Johnson says mass testing is being piloted in Liverpool.

We already have a life-saving treatment for Covid, Johnson says, thanks to British scientists. And there is the prospect of a vaccine next year.

Another SNP MP, Drew Hendry, says Johnson needs to clarify his position on differentiated furlough. If Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland need lockdown measures after November, will the chancellor support them with furlough?

Yes, says Johnson.

Updated

Mark Harper (Con) says he is troubled by the way the modelling has been done. It does not take into account the impact of the tiered system. He says it is working. Some encouraging data is emerging from Liverpool. But the NHS capacity modelling does not take account of this.

Johnson says he thinks Harper is wrong. Hospitalisations are going up. There were 397 deaths yesterday, he says. The curve is already unmistakeable.

Johnson says the national measures being voted on tonight are time limited.

So let me level with the house - of course I can’t say exactly where the epidemiology will be by December 2, but what I can say is that the national measures that I hope the house will vote on tonight, are time-limited.

It is not that we choose to stop them, they legally expire. So whatever we do from December 2 will require a fresh mandate and a fresh vote from this house.

And as I have made clear, it is my express intent that we should return to a tiered system on a local and a regional basis according to the latest data and trends.

Updated

Huw Merriman (Con) says if he is going to vote for the government today, he wants to see evidence that the benefits of lockdown will not outweigh the harm it will cause.

Johnson says he has to act on the evidence now. There is a risk of “grievous mortality”, he says.

He says the point about having a national health service is that, when hospitals in one part of the country are overrun, patients can be transferred somewhere else.

But there is a risk of this not happening, he says.

He says they cannot take the risk of getting to the point where the NHS is not there for everyone.

Updated

Back in the Commons Neil Gray (SNP) asks the PM the question asked by his colleagues at PMQs: will Scotland get funding for furlough if it needs it beyond 2 December?

Johnson says Gray is someone “who can’t take yes for an answer”. He repeats the point about the chancellor making a statement tomorrow.

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon has told MSPs the government could make Covid-19 travel restrictions legally-binding and put Lanarkshire into the highest tier of controls next week, as the number of deaths continued to increase.

The first minister said Police Scotland could be empowered to enforce rules barring people from travelling outside their council areas, including issuing fines.

“We are actively considering whether we give a legal underpinning in future weeks to these travel restrictions,” she told Holyrood’s Covid-19 committee.

North and South Lanarkshire councils could put into level 4, the most severe tier of restrictions, if the cases there continued to escalate by the time she updates MSPs on any changes to the levels applied in different parts of Scotland next Tuesday.

National Records of Scotland said 167 people had died of confirmed or suspected Covid-19 last week – the highest weekly figure since May, with 51 of those in the Lanarkshire health board area. The same number died in Greater Glasgow and Clyde health board area.

Speaking at her daily coronavirus briefing, Sturgeon said another 50 people with confirmed Covid-19 infections had died in 24 hours in Scotland and another 1,433 tested positive in the last day. There were 1,257 people in hospital, up by three, and 94 patients in intensive care, up by 2.

Among the new positive cases, 602 were in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 318 in Lanarkshire and 163 in Lothian.

Updated

Jim Shannon (DUP) intervenes to ask the PM to review the rule saying church services are banned. In Northern Ireland they have been allowed to continue, he says.

Johnson says he feels this deeply. It is an awful thing to restrict people’s ability to worship, he says.

But he says if we can get through this now, we have a good chance of allowing services to return before Christmas.

Johnson opens debate on English lockdown regulations

Boris Johnson is opening the lockdown debate now.

He says he is not prepared to take risks with the lives of the British people.

As prime minister, when I’m confronted with data that projects our NHS could even collapse, with deaths in the second wave potentially exceeding those in the first, and when I look at what is happening now among some of our continental friends, and I see doctors who have tested positive being ordered to work on Covid wards and patients airlifted to hospital in some other countries simply to make space, I can reach only one conclusion.

I’m not prepared to take the risk with the lives of the British people.

Updated

PMQs - Snap verdict

Two weeks ago, when Boris Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer last clashed over whether or not there should a short, national lockdown, I wrote that it might take a month or two to be sure who was right. It is always good to admit your mistakes, and so I need to apologise. It only took two weeks. Starmer has been vindicated, comprehensively.

This could be a career-defining error on the part of Johnson. He was already vulnerable to the charge that he delayed the first lockdown unnecessarily by a week or so, with the result that perhaps 20,000 people may have died unnecessarily. But in March Johnson broadly had the scientists on his side. This time, despite Sage explicitly proposing a national lockdown, Johnson prevaricated for more than a month. Starmer read the Sage proposal and endorsed it. Johnson rubbished it as involving turning the lights out – until, in an extraordinary U-turn on Saturday, he suddenly adopted the idea.

This is a huge win for Starmer. But, strangely, it did not quite feel like that at PMQs today. That was not because Johnson was particularly persuasive. In one of his answers to Starmer he verged on the nonsensical, saying that the regional tiered approach was working, until the moment when it appeared that it wasn’t. (See 12.05pm.) He refused point-blank to answer the important and reasonable question about whether the lockdown could be eased if R was still above 1. And he ended up with a familiar whinge about the opposition being critical, which is normally a clear sign he is losing on substance.

Starmer can win the exchanges in the Commons quite comfortably, but today it did not feel like game, set and match, and certainly not the thorough, reputational dismantling of Johnson that you might expect in the circumstances. Perhaps that’s because Starmer is just not particularly aggressive. Perhaps it’s because he is slightly cautious about deploying the argument that thousands of people will die of the lockdown delay (which may be true, but to many the crude simplification of arguments like this are off-putting). More probably, as a quick glance at what’s happening in the US today should remind us, it’s because in a world where political views are based on partisan allegiance, mismanaging Covid is not as damaging to one’s standing as it should be.

Updated

Carol Monaghan (SNP) quotes what Johnson said about furlough on Monday. Will 80% furlough be available to specific regions beyond 2 December if they need to lockdown because of rising infections?

Johnson says furlough is a UK-wide scheme and it will continue to be available to the people of Scotland. For “elucidation” of the details, he urges Monaghan to listen to what the chancellor says in his statement tomorrow.

Updated

Natalie Elphicke (Con) asks for an assurance that Dover will be free of traffic gridlock after the Brexit transition is over.

Johnson says he backs Elphicke’s campaign on local roads.

Sam Tarry (Lab) says Sage recommended a circuit breaker six weeks ago. What will the PM say to the families of the 12,000 people who will die before Christmas?

Johnson says some scientists are opposed to lockdown. You have to take a balanced judgment, he says.

Sajid Javid (Con) says the life chances of the disadvantaged are hit hardest when schools close. Can the PM promise to do whatever necessary to make up for lost ground, and can he promise to keep schools open?

Johnson says Javid is right. He says one good idea has come out of this crisis: one-on-one tutoring, which he says can make a huge difference.

Updated

Chris Elmore (Lab) asks about domestic abuse. It has risen during the pandemic. Will the government draw up a plan to tackle this?

Johnson says he agrees. He says domestic violence is intolerable. The government has set up helplines, and is investing in refuges and advisers.

Gareth Thomas (Lab) asks whether free school meals will be extended for Christmas.

Johnson says the government will ensure that no child goes hungry this Christmas because of inactivity by government. It was a Conservative government that introduced free school meals for infants, he says.

(In fact, it was a coalition government. The Lib Dems say the policy only happened because they insisted on it.)

Updated

Nusrat Ghani (Con) asks if the government will redouble support for programmes like Prevent. And she asks the PM to condemn Islamist TV channels available in the UK justifying practices like wife beating.

Johnson agrees.

Stephen Farry (Alliance) asks when the government will remove the clauses from the internal market bill allowing the government to override the withdrawal agreement.

Johnson says the legislation is vital for the country.

Johnson says he is “so, so sorry” places of worship are having to close. But the government is working to ensure the restrictions can be lifted on 2 December.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, asks the PM to clarify if Scotland will get full 80% furlough on current terms whenever it is requested in the months ahead.

Johnson says he gave a commitment on Monday. Furlough is a UK-wide scheme. It has saved about 1m jobs in Scotland.

Blackford asks if payments for businesses in Scotland will be available on an on-demand basis. And will the government write to the Scottish government making a commitment in writing.

Johnson says Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, will make a statement tomorrow. The government will support people in Scotland and throughout the UK during the crisis.

Starmer says if four out of 10 people who should be contacted are not being contacted, that is a problem.

Turning to care homes, he says it must be possible to find a way of allowing safe visits by relatives.

Johnson says there will be new guidance on this today.

He says MPs will have noticed that Starmer has used this crisis to make political capital. Kate Green talked about a good crisis, he says. He says Tony Blair has written a good piece in today’s Daily Mail in which he broadly supports the government’s strategy, including mass testing and the search for a vaccine. He urges Starmer “to take a leaf out of Blair’s book”. And he says Tony Blair would not have spent four years in a Corbyn shadow cabinet.

Updated

Starmer says it would be 'madness' to abandon lockdown if R still above 1 on 2 December

Starmer says it would be “madness” to abandon the lockdown on 2 December if R is still above 1 then.

If the infection rate - we’ve got to look the public in the eye - is still going up on December 2, it is madness to come out of the system back to the tiered system, when we know the one thing the tiered system can’t cope with is an R rate above one.

He says 113,000 contacts were not reached in a week, according to the most recent figures.

What will the PM do to fix test and trace?

Johnson says he has been accused of bragging about testing. He is “perfectly willing to accept responsibility for the failing of test and trace”. But to get testing capacity up to 500,000 a day is a remarkable feat, he says.

He says MPs should work together to get the R down.

Updated

Starmer says of course there will be a vote. That is just the process. But what happens if R is still above 1 on 2 December? Will the lockdown still end?

Johnson claims R is “only just above 1” as it is. He says the measures will expire on 2 December. Is Starmer saying the measures should last longer?

Updated

Starmer says he looked at the evidence three weeks ago and decided a circuit break was best. He does not accept that the evidence suddenly changed this weekend.

Will the lockdown end on 2 December come what may? Or will it depend on the circumstances at the time?

Johnson says, as he told MPs repeatedly on Monday, these measures will expire on 2 December. He says he hopes very much they can get shops open again before Christmas. But that requires people to get the R down.

It will be up to the Commons to decide what they do.

Starmer says no one wants a lockdown. But an earlier one could have coincided with half term, and lasted two or three weeks. Does the PM understand the economic cost of delaying?

Johnson says it is because he understands the economic cost that it was right to go for the regional solution.

He says the government will soon be rolling out new types of tests on a scale never seen before.

He thanks the Labour leadership of Liverpool for their cooperation.

Sir Keir Starmer asks the PM to agree that is it not for a candidate to declare the results of an election. And he expresses his horror at the terror attack in Nice.

On Covid, he says 11 people died on the day Sage recommended a circuit break lockdown. On Monday, 42 days later, 397 people died. Does the PM understand the human cost of his inaction.

Johnson says he does not comment on the internal affairs of the UK’s allies.

No parliament or government would want to impose these measures lightly, he says.

He says it was right to try the regional approach. It was, and is, showing signs of working. But we have to face the reality that we are now facing a surge in this virus, which the Commons has to tackle.

Andrew Jones (Con) asks when rapid-result tests can be rolled out across the UK.

Johnson says the pilot will last two weeks.

Boris Johnson starts by saying MPs are talking about a heavily contested election - and it is a year to the day since Sir Lindsay Hoyle was elected Speaker.

He thanks Hoyle “for making the Speakership great again”.

PMQs

PMQs will be starting shortly.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

After PMQs there will be a short speech from Gavin Newlands (SNP) on a 10-minute rule bill, on banning firms from sacking workers and then rehiring them on worse terms. MPs then have to approve a business motion (which should go through very quickly, without a division). And then Boris Johnson will open the debate on the lockdown regulations.

Chance of vaccine being able to 'wipe out' Covid very slim, says vaccine taskforce head

Jeremy Hunt, the chair of the health committee, asked Bingham what the chances were of getting a vaccine that would be able to “wipe out” coronavirus. Bingham said:

Well to wipe out coronavirus, I think very slim. To get a vaccine that has an effect both reducing illness and reducing mortality, very high.

Updated

Government missed its target of getting 30m doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine by September, MPs told

Greg Clark, the chair of the science committee, says that after Kate Bingham’s appointment as head of the government’s vaccine taskforce, the government said it had signed an agreement to make 30m doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine available by September. He asks if they are ready.

No, says Bingham.

She says the 30m figure was based on scaling up happening at a certain rate. But that has not happened, she says.

Clark says the 30m doses announcement was intended to reassure the public.

Q: How many doses might be available, in the next few weeks?

Bingham says at the moment the figure is in the low millions. She says by the end of the year there should be about 4m doses available.

She says that once you have managed to manufacture vaccine at a certain volume, it becomes easy to scale it up quickly.

But she also says the UK could have 10m doses of another vaccine, the Pfizer/ BioNTech one.

Updated

A reader asks about the Covid blood plasma trials. (See 11.01am.)

Good point. To take part, you just need to be over 17 and to have had coronavirus.

There are more details here, including a link allowing you to register if you’re interested in taking part.

In evidence to the committee Bingham says it would be helpful to have stronger scientific expertise and industrial experience in government.

It would be great if government departments were “much better populated with scientists”, she says.

Kate Bingham
Kate Bingham Photograph: Parliament TV

At the health and science committee hearing Kate Bingham, head of the government’s vaccine taskforce, is now giving evidence.

She says the UK has access to six different vaccines being developed, in four different formats.

It has secured 350 doses, she says.

Giving evidence to a joint meeting of the Commons health and science committees this morning, Prof Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases and global health at the University of Oxford and a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Committee for Emergencies, said that the fatality rate for Covid patients going into hospital was now about half what it was in the first wave.

Then the fatality rate was around 30%, he said. Now it is around 15%.

So about half, which is really fantastic news. We have to be a bit cautious because the age profile is not the same at the moment, and as more older people come in that will creep up, I think.

But it does indicate, I think, that the NHS is getting better at treating Covid patients, and I think there are a number of areas where that improvement has happened.

Horby said these improvements included the use of respiratory support, the use of oxygen, and non-invasive ventilation.

The UK had been “very successful” in developing new treatments, he said. But he also highlighted the need for more volunteers to come forward for trials.

As PA Media reports, Horby said researchers expect to get an answer on the use of convalescent plasma in six to eight weeks but that time could be halved if recruitment of patients was doubled.

“So we have 10% of patients enrolled. That means 90% are not enrolled,” he said, adding that while some hospitals are enrolling up to 35% patients, there are some hospitals which have recruited no one into the Recovery trial.

“So there is scope for improvement,” he said, adding that more marketing of the trials would be helpful.

Voting against lockdown could encourage people to ignore rules, health chiefs tell MPs

NHS Providers, which represents hospitals and other NHS trusts, has written a letter to MPs urging them to vote for the lockdown this afternoon. Here are some of the key arguments.

  • The letter says the current approach to controlling the virus has “failed”. It says:

The combination of a tiered approach to local lockdowns and test, trace and isolate has failed to curb the growth in COVID-19 cases. We have lost control.

Last week, the NHS saw nearly 2,800 new COVID-19 patients admitted into hospital, the equivalent of five whole hospitals full of new COVID patients in just seven days. Daily admissions are now higher than on 23rd March, the date of the first lockdown. Hospitals from Stoke, Leeds and Liverpool to Greater Manchester, Nottingham and Blackpool are now seeing a higher number of patients with COVID-19 than they did in the peak of the first wave of the virus.

The levels of NHS hospital admissions and inpatients are, depending on area, between two and four times higher than the reasonable worst-case scenario the NHS was asked by government to plan against. Despite doing everything they can to avoid this, the hospitals under the greatest pressure are now being forced to start cutting back on routine surgery.

  • It says a lockdown is “the only realistic option now available if the NHS is to look after patients in the way it needs to”.
  • It says trust leaders are worried that the more MPs there are who vote against the lockdown, the more people will be inclined not to follow the rules. It says:

Maximising public compliance and support for the new lockdown is vital if we are to ensure the NHS has the capacity it needs this winter. Trust leaders are worried that the larger the vote against the regulations, the more that public compliance and support will be at risk. We are therefore asking you to vote in favour of these regulations.

The letter has been signed by Chris Hopson, the NHS Providers chief executive, and his deputy, Saffron Cordery.

Obviously the Westminster political class - like much of the rest of the world - will be focused on the US presidential election today. Here’s our live blog, which is an ideal place to keep up with what going on.

Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, was talking about the election on the Today programme. When invited to criticise President Trump for falsely claiming he had already won, Raab refused to do so. He said he did not want to “comment on the commentary”. Asked if it would be good to “call your close friend out”, Raab replied:

Well I think that you’re now engaging in the campaign rather than just reporting on it. But the truth is, I think what’s really important now is we wait and see how this uncertainty unfolds.

Raab also said he was confident the “checks and balances reflected in the US system” would produce a result.

But in a tweet this morning posted after Trump’s comment, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, hinted at her concern about his stance. She said “the integrity of US democracy” was at stake.

GPs will be ready to start administering Covid vaccine before Christmas if it's available, says NHS chief

Sir Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England, is giving a press conference later, and he was on the Today programme this morning. Here are the main points.

  • Stevens said GPs were getting ready to start administering Covid vaccines before Christmas, if they become available. He said:

There are over 200 vaccines in development and we believe that we should hopefully get one or more of those available from the first part of next year.

In anticipation of that we’re also gearing the NHS up to be ready to make a start on administering Covid vaccines before Christmas, if they become available.

We reached an agreement with GPs to ensure they will be doing that, and we’ll be writing to GP practices this week to get them geared up to start by Christmas if the vaccine becomes available.

  • He said that “in many parts of the country” there are hospitals with more coronavirus patients than during the first peak.
  • He said the lockdown should prevent the NHS from having to postpone routine operations on a nationwide basis because of the pressure caused by coronavirus cases. He said:

We fully expect that [we will not run out of critical care capacity], and indeed the action parliament is considering today will mean not only that, but should mean that we will not need to embark on a national deferral of routine operations across the country and instead will continue with targeted local decisions based on the particular pressures individual hospitals and geographies are facing.

  • He said the NHS was starting routine testing for all patient-facing staff. He said:

Routine testing of asymptomatic NHS staff has now begun in high prevalence parts of the country, areas where there are outbreaks, and more than 70,000 NHS staff have had those tests within the last several weeks.

And the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, yesterday wrote to the health committee, to parliament, explaining that, because the availability of testing had now increased, and we’ve got this new saliva testing that will be available for hospital and other health service staff over the next six or eight weeks, we will now be able to press on routinely testing all patient-facing NHS staff.

Simon Stevens, head of NHS England.
Simon Stevens, head of NHS England. Photograph: Victoria Jones/AFP/Getty Images

Former chief whip joins Tory revolt ahead of Commons vote on English lockdown

Good morning. MPs will vote on the regulations (pdf) enforcing the coronavirus lockdown for England (starting tomorrow) this afternoon and, although there is no chance of the government losing because it has Labour support, Boris Johnson will face a backbench Conservative rebellion. It is not expected to be very big - on Monday Sir Charles Walker, a vice chair of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee said just 15 Tories would rebel - but it won’t be insignificant either, for two reasons.

First, the lockdown-sceptics have strong support in the Tory press. For example, today’s Sun editorial describes the lockdown as “a giant, sightless leap back into the abyss”. Often it’s best to ignore Sun editorials, but in Conservative party politics these views still count. The rebel vote today will legitimise these arguments.

And, second, this is all a precursor to the vote that will have to take place when the Commons decides how to replace the lockdown after 2 December. Johnson may win comfortably today, but the Tory libertarian wing are also seeking to close down the prospect of anything resembling a lockdown extension in the weeks before Christmas.

This morning some Conservatives who have until now been undecided have committed themselves to voting against the government.

Mark Harper, the former chief whip, has said in an article for ConservativeHome that he will oppose the lockdown. He says:

I have a fundamental objection to the use of reasonable force to enforce these regulations by agents of the state who are not properly trained to safely use that force. As a former Home Office minister, I have seen that when reasonable force is used incorrectly, it can lead to unnecessary deaths.

Despite reassurances from ministers at the despatch box that this matter was going to be resolved, regrettably it has not been. These regulations give the power to use reasonable force to PCSOs and, most worryingly, any “person designated by the secretary of state for the purposes of this regulation”. My view is that the use of reasonable force should be limited to police officers, who undergo a significant amount of training in both when and how to safely use this power.

In light of the above, I do not believe that the government has made the case for a change away from the tiered system and in favour of an England-wide national lockdown.

Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister, has used an article in the Telegraph to explain why he is voting against the lockdown. He says:

I am sorry that I do not feel able to impose the undoubted costs of lockdown on the basis of the necessary balancing judgment calls. It is with a heavy heart that I plan to vote against this measure, but I will condemn no one for supporting lockdown if they think it will minimise harm.

Harper and Baker both devote much of their respective arguments to criticising the graphs used to justify the lockdown at the press conference on Saturday night, and particularly the now-discredited projection that deaths could reach 4,000 a day. In retrospect, that chart seems to have been counter-productive.

Peter Bone, who on Monday said he was still undecided, has confirmed he will vote against. He is also unhappy about the modelling.

And so has Stephen McPartland.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, gives evidence to the Scottish parliament’s Covid-19 committee.

9.30am: Prof Peter Horby, a member of Sage, and other academics give evidence to the ‘Coronavirus - lessons learnt’ inquiry being conducted by the Commons health and science committees; at 11am Kate Bingham, chair of the vaccine taskforce, gives evidence.

11am: Sir Simon Stevens, head of NHS England, holds a press conference.

12pm: Boris Johnson faces Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs.

12.15pm: Sturgeon is expected to hold a coronavirus briefing.

12.15pm: The Welsh government is due to hold a coronavirus briefing.

Around 12.45pm: Johnson opens the debate on the regulations enforcing the lockdown in England. MPs will vote at around 3.45pm.

Politics Live is now doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.

Here is our global coronavirus live blog.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Updated

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