Summary
We’ll be closing this blog now, so to keep up with any major lines from the emergency debate and other UK news, do follow along on the global blog.
In the meantime, here’s are the key points from today’s coronavirus briefing, where Hancock said the virus is “in retreat”.
- A further 55 people have died after contracting Covid-19 in UK, taking the country’s death toll to 40,597. This is the lowest daily total of newly reported deaths since 22 March, but there is often a reporting lag over a weekend. The figures do not include all deaths across the UK, which is thought to have passed 50,000.
- There were 138,183 tests carried out yesterday
- There were 1,205 new confirmed cases yesterday, the lowest since the end of March
- The number of Covid-19 hospital admissions in England, Wales and Northern Ireland was 519 (down from 661 on 29 May)
- The number of people on ventilators on the UK as a whole is 516
- Sage estimates the R rate is below 1 in all regions, and the number of Covid-19 patients in hospital is falling in all regions
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Over a million test kits have been sent to 9,000 elderly care homes, Hancock said. The test results so far do not show a significant rise in positive cases, but homes are have been given the option to test when they prefer.
- From today, all remaining adult care homes in England will be able to order the whole care home testing service for residents and staff. This is over 6,000 further care homes, Hancock said.
Updated
Valerie Vaz, shadow Leader of the House, has said parliament needs to restore a way for all MPs to participate as equals, instead with a two-tier system. She raised the a number of “myths” Rees-Mogg has perpetuated, including the following:
- That physical parliament provides more efficient scrutiny: she countered it by saying there can only be 50 members in the chamber.
- That MPs are returning safely. Vaz raised the 400 member queue and 45-minute long queue.
- That the House does not work effectively on behalf of constituencies. She said MPs are working for their constituents as they always do.
- Line-by-line scrutiny of bills - she said the system has only just been set up, and select committees have been able to participate.
Carmichael has said the lack of virtual votes for those living with a shielding partner or family member violates the principe of equality, saying those who do not understand this should read the “constitutional textbooks”.
Updated
Rees-Mogg has said MPs are key workers, and many of their constituents are continuing to take risks to work.
Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine has said this is not about scrutiny or parliamentary proceeding, as important as they are: it is about public health. “We are in the middle of a pandemic”, and risk taking the virus to constituents and others along the way. “That is much more important than the process by which we scrutinise the government.”
Labour’s Angela Eagle has asked Rees-Mogg to stop “caricaturing” MPs who are shielding or have vulnerable members of family as “not wanting to be here”. Rees-Mogg has reiterated virtual provisions for those who are shielding, as well as proxy votes and pairing. He doesn’t raise the issue of those with vulnerable family members.
Updated
Carmichael has asked: If scrutiny of government was as important to the Leader of the House as he is making it out to be, shouldn’t the PM have made the statement to parliament before broadcasting it?
The question of virtual participation for both those who are shielding, and those who are living with someone who is shielding, has been repeatedly raised. Rees-Mogg has said those who are shielding can vote by proxy, which he adds is the “majority” of those who would be excluded.
Parliament has been compared to school, with Zoom being called a “good stopgap” but not the sufficient. Carmichael has agreed he doesn’t want it used indefinitely, but it is right for this moment.
Covid-19 has been confirmed among prisoners in a new prison, the latest update from the Ministry of Justice reveals. As of 5pm on Sunday, 485 prisoners had tested positive for the coronavirus in 80 prisons, compared with 482 inmates in 79 prisons on Thursday.
The number of infected staff rose less than 1% in the period to 954 across 105 prisons. The numbers are not live cases and include those who have recovered. There are about 79,800 prisoners across 117 prisons in England and Wales, and about 33,000 staff working in public sector prisons.
The current regime, which has included a ban on family visits, reduced time spent out of cells to about 30 minutes a day, suspended prison transfers and forced new arrivals to be quarantined for 14 days, has been hailed a success by ministers as deaths and infection rates behind bars have been significantly lower than expected.
Twenty three prisoners and nine staff are known to have died, as well as one prison escort driver and one NHS trust employee working in a secure training centre.
Updated
Rees-Mogg has said parliament has a duty to meet in person, saying parliament was running “at a snail’s pace”. Others have disputed this, including by commenting on the queuing system’s inefficiency.
Updated
He has said the ending of virtual proceedings is contrary to government guidance to others.
It has been proposed that there is a second vote on virtual process, as those who were shielding could not vote.
Carmichael has added in event that “it all goes horribly wrong” there will only be one person - Rees-Mogg - and one party responsible for that.
Carmichael has said his objection is based on public safety, and is not a question of personal interest. He raises the issue of having to travel by plane, with people who may be going to Aberdeen for hospital operation, saying “the idea I might inadvertently transmit the virus makes my blood run cold”.
Emergency Commons debate over MPs' attendance
There is an emergency debate in the House of Commons over the return to physical attendance, following a call by Jacob Rees Mogg. Shetland MP Alistair Carmichael has been a vocal critic, raising the government’s guidance that those who can work from home should.
Updated
And that concludes today’s government coronavirus briefing.
Updated
Hancock said he hoped the government would be able to get to a position where people were able to go on holiday this summer.
For those who aren’t able to go abroad for a holiday, I know the impact that that will have this summer. I understand that.
I just hope that we will be able to get to a position where people will be able to go on holiday - including domestically - safely, carefully and in a Covid-secure way.
The Guardian’s Haroon Siddique asks:
If, as you and the prime minister say, the UK is not a racist country, which implies there is not structural racism in the UK, please can you explain why black, asian and minority ethnic people are disproportionately dying from Covid-19? Could you also explain why black people are being fined disproportionately under lockdown rules?
Hancock responds that it’s important to “get the science right” around this, and take into account a number of considerations such as occupation, levels of comorbidity, housing, and then act.
The absolutely critical piece of work is to follow on from the PHE report that was published last week with the answer to the question objectively and based on the science why is that death rate higher and take into account all the considerations.
As and when we find conclusions we will put them into place.
The second question went unanswered.
Updated
When asked why the government is enforcing two-metre distancing while other countries, such as France, use one metre, Hancock said: “The science is clear, the closer you are the more likely you are to pass on the virus.
He added that some other countries are also insisting on two-metre distancing, and the two-metre rule is under review at all time.
He said the “current working plan” was for secondary schools to fully reopen in England from September at the earliest, despite concerns about the two-metre rule making that difficult.
For both schools and the economy it was a matter of working out how to open in a way that does not lead to an increased spread of the virus.
That is going to require ingenuity, you can already see the ingenuity in lots of areas of the economy - bars that have turned themselves into takeaways, all sorts of different ways that people are providing services and making their business work in a way that is consistent with social distancing.
We’ve got to be innovative, we’ve got to be thoughtful about this.
Updated
Hancock insisted it is safe for people to send their loved ones into care homes.
With all of the measures that we’ve put in place over the past few months, all of the billions of pounds extra that we’ve put in, it’s clear that the epidemic in care homes is coming under control.
Even those care homes where there are cases have very strong infection control procedures in place.
In fact, if you look at the proportion of people in the UK who have sadly died in care homes, it is significantly lower than in comparable countries across Europe.
“There isn’t a trade off [between Covid-19 safety measures and the economy],” said Hancock.
“If we don’t have control of this virus the the economy will suffer yet more.”
The job of the government has been to get the infection rate down, and then hold it down while reopening normal activity, he said.
“That’s both on the economy front and the things that make life worth living, like being able to see your grandparents. That is a massive piece of work”
It’s “simplistic” to suggest it’s a trade-off between the economy and health, he said.
Covid-19 is 'in retreat', says Hancock
The data showing declining deaths and infections means the virus is “in retreat”, Hancock said:
It is clear coronavirus is in retreat across the country, but we must be vigilant and cautious, and we are taking a safety-first approach
It means we can proceed with our plan, for instance looking towards the proposals next week to the retail sector, and people can have confidence taking their children to school in the three years that we’ve opened so far.
Updated
One question from the public asked about research from scientists that the R rate has risen above one in certain parts of the country.
Hancock said if localised outbreaks are seen action will be taken in hospitals and care homes.
“Where there are individual flare-ups and outbreaks, then we will take action,” he said.
But looking at all models, “scientists’ conclusion is that the R rate is below one in all parts of the country” although that is under constant review, he said.
“We’ll try to be as localised as possible, but further measures are available,” he said, such as testing the nearby community.
Updated
To mark Carers Week, Hancock offered his thanks to carers across the country for their work.
“Your duty and your devotion to a job that you do with love in incredibly challenging circumstances are a huge inspiration,” he said, saying those who have been separated from their loved ones will be reunited soon.
Whole care home testing rolled out to all adult care homes
From today, all remaining adult care homes in England will be able to order the whole care home testing service for residents and staff.
This is over 6,000 further care homes, Hancock said.
The social care task force will oversee the next phase of social care support, developing a system to keep staff and residents safe as the lockdown is eased, Hancock said.
He said that as of Saturday, tests have been sent to all residents and staff in elderly care homes in England, regardless of whether they have had symptoms or not.
Over a million test kits have been sent to 9,000 elderly care homes, he said. The test results so far do not show a significant rise in positive cases, but homes are have been given the option to test when they prefer.
David Pearson, newly-appointed chairman of the social care tasforce said:
The taskforce will bring together the concerted and determined actions of central and local government with care providers.
Our focus will be on stopping infection whilst trying to ensure the wellbeing of all people who receive care and support, whether they live in care homes or at home.
Social care has a crucial role to play in supporting the people who receive care and support and their carers, and our job is to harness our efforts as we go through the various phases of this pandemic and support social care in its crucial role.
Updated
The over-80s are 70 times more likely to die from coronavirus than the under-40s, Hancock said.
“I know personally what an anxious time it is, and it has been, for anyone with a loved one in social care,” he said.
He said “right from the start” the government provided for care homes with financial support, testing and stronger links with the NHS.
Updated
The number of people dying in care homes is also falling, Hancock said.
Figures from the CQC show a 79% fall from the peak of the crisis in care homes week ending 24 April, to week ending 29 May, the latest the data was available.
ONS data show care homes deaths accounted for 29.1% of all Covid-19 deaths.
Matt Hancock leads daily government briefing
The health secretary, Matt Hancock, is leading today’s government coronavirus briefing, today focused on social care.
He is joined by David Pearson, the new chair of the national Covid-19 social care support task force.
The latest figures:
- There were 138,183 tests carried out yesterday
- There were 1,205 new confirmed cases yesterday, the lowest since the end of March
- The number of Covid-19 hospital admissions in England, Wales and Northern Ireland was 519 (down from 661 on 29 May)
- The number of people on ventilators on the UK as a whole is 516
- Sage estimates the R rate is below 1 in all regions, and the number of Covid-19 patients in hopsital is falling in all regions
People who think they have had the coronavirus are less likely to download a contact-tracing app, even if they have no proof that they ever contracted the virus, according to a study published this week.
The finding highlights the potential long-term damage of the UK government’s early policy of not testing to confirm self-reported Covid-19 infection, the authors, from Imperial College’s faculty of medicine, say.
In the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, the authors analysed results from a questionnaire of more than 10,000 NHS users, and found that, for the UK at large, “a willingness for app-based contact tracing is 60% … substantially less than the smartphone-user uptake considered necessary for app-based contact-tracing to be an effective intervention to help suppress an epidemic”.
Two main failings have kept that number low. The first is the fact that people who think they have already had the coronavirus are significantly less likely (27%) to say they will install a contact-tracing app than those who do not think they have caught the infection.
In the absence of widespread testing, however, it is difficult to know how many of those people have had the disease.
It also remains unclear precisely how much protection having caught Covid-19 affords someone against becoming a carrier again in the future.
People who confessed to not understanding the government’s messaging around the coronavirus were also less likely to download the app, the researchers found, posing a problem for strategies that involve regular nuanced updates to what people can and cannot do.
But by far the largest reason for not wanting to download the app was privacy concerns, cited by two-thirds of those who said they would not download the app.
Updated
The health secretary, Matt Hancock, has just updated MPs in parliament on the government’s coronavirus plan.
- “Coronavirus is in retreat across the land,” he said. “Our plan is working and these downward trends mean we can proceed with our plans.”
- David Pearson, former chief of the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services “who has decades of experience of leadership in both social care and public health”, will lead the government’s new social care task force.
- Work is under way to give local authorities and GPs access to the data they need to track the virus spread.
- The aim is for testing of symptomatic people to have a 24-hour turnaround, while testing of asymptomatic people will use routes that have a slower turnaround.
- He failed to explain what the government’s plan will be if the R number goes back up above one. “I spoke to Professor [John] Edmunds at the weekend ... he said that quite rightly a cautious approach is what is needed, but there is scope to be able to allow some opening up, according to the plan that we’ve got.”
- He said that according to the 10 models considered by Sage, the R rate is below one in all regions of the country, even though individual models might differ.
Updated
If you’re wondering why the daily Covid-19 death toll for England today (59) is higher than the total for the whole of the UK (55), it’s down to different reporting methods, according to the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC).
Public Health England (PHE) - which collates the numbers for the UK-wide total - picks up records from several different sources, including the NHS England death reports. The use of different sources means that PHE will sometimes identify individual deaths a day or two sooner.
This means some of the deaths recorded in the NHS England total today will have already been reported in the UK-wide (PHE) total, most likely in the last couple of days.
DHSC confirmed that deaths are not double counted; they are only included in the total once.
It also said reporting time lags vary slightly in individual cases, so there is not a systematic difference between the series, but on occasion the daily total for the new series will be a touch lower.
Updated
The UK government now has the joint-lowest approval rating worldwide for its management of coronavirus, according to YouGov polling.
Only 41% of Britons say the government is managing the outbreak well, versus 56% who say it is mishandling it. This gives a net score of -15, down from -6 the week previously, and on a par with Mexico.
This means the British government’s approval rating is now lower than Donald Trump’s. His administration’s response to the crisis currently generates a net score of -12, down from -7 the week before, with 41% of Americans saying the government is performing well compared to 53% who say it is performing poorly.
The UK government now has the joint-lowest approval rating worldwide for how they have managed coronavirus
— YouGov (@YouGov) June 8, 2020
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🇬🇧 -15https://t.co/UJa9VgL77J pic.twitter.com/n2EYhpEuhI
YouGov surveys also found the UK continues to lag far behind most other countries when it comes to face mask usage.
The number of people reporting to wear face masks remains unchanged from the previous week at 21%, although this may rise when face coverings become mandatory on public transport from 15 June.
Updated
Jacob Rees-Mogg said he has sympathy with MPs unable to attend parliament due to parental responsibilities during the coronavirus crisis.
Rees-Mogg, the leader of the House of Commons, tabled a motion - which was subsequently passed by MPs - preventing the resumption of virtual voting.
He told the Commons Procedure Committee:
I think everyone has sympathy for people with parental responsibilities.
It is such an important responsibility for all of us.
As it happens, this evening, I shall be moving a motion on sitting Fridays and one of my children is going to have to come into the House of Commons and sit in my office whilst I’m doing this because there is no-one else to look after her because ... my family are at home in Somerset, one child who’s back at school.
This is very complicated and I can sympathise with members, and I have some experience of it, inevitably.
Former prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have sent recorded messages to the husband of Good Morning Britain host Kate Garraway to as he recovers from coronavirus, Peter Mandelson has revealed.
Derek Draper, 52, has been in hospital for 10 weeks battling Covid-19, with Garraway recently revealing she had been warned by doctors he may never fully recover.
Last week, she said the illness had “wreaked extraordinary damage” on Draper, who is a former lobbyist and political adviser.
Speaking to BBC Radio 5 Live’s Emma Barnett, Lord Mandelson said Draper’s fight with coronavirus had “brought an enormous lot of people back together again”.
Mandelson, who served as a minister in Labour governments under Blair and Brown, said:
The whole experience, the whole dreadful, tragic experience of what’s happened to him has actually brought an enormous lot of people, who knew him in the 90s and beyond, who knew him in New Labour and the government.
It’s brought an enormous lot of people back together again.
He’s been a hugely unifying figure, ironically, through this terrible, terrible tragedy.
Both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have sent him recorded messages, as have done the rest of us.
We’re now giving him music, we’re giving him photographs in order to stimulate a response, we’ve all come together, and we just hope, and pray, he will come through it.
Draper was taken to hospital on 29 March after struggling to breathe. Doctors eventually put him in an induced coma on 5 April.
He was now testing negative for Covid-19, his wife said last week.
Mandelson added: “It is just incredible what that virus has done to him, to his lungs, to his liver, to his kidneys, and there were many, many points along this journey when none of us thought that he could possibly make it.”
Updated
As the UK government’s easing of lockdown restrictions is gradually introduced, new quarantine regulations mean that passengers arriving in Britain from Monday will need to stay at home for 14 days.
At Heathrow airport there was some confusion, however, as the first passengers subject to the new restrictions landed.
Travellers were asked to fill in the online forms but evidence to prove the information was correct was not required.
Some passengers were surprised by the lack of physical screening for the virus. Fiona Gathright, 59, travelled from Washington DC and will be living in Bristol with her fiance, who had flown in from Hong Kong.
“They didn’t even do a temperature check at either end, not in Washington before we got on the flight and not in London when we got off the flight,” she said. “Somebody could have been on the flight with a 100-plus temperature and gotten off and gone on their merry way.”
There was also some uncertainty over the exact details of the quarantine. “They told me that we could go get groceries. That’s my understanding anyway. But we had thought if we couldn’t get food we could order stuff online,” Gathright said.
Others said they were told not to leave the house for food shopping unless necessary.
The travellers were told to try to avoid public transport when heading to their final destination but this was not possible for many.
BP has announced plans to cut 10,000 jobs, representing about 15% of the oil group’s 70,000 staff, by the end of the year.
Bernard Looney, the chief executive, told employees that the job cuts were essential to enable the company to cope with a global collapse in demand for oil owing to the coronavirus pandemic.
He said BP must reinvent itself and emerge from the crisis a “leaner, faster-moving and lower carbon company”.
The London-headquartered group has not said how many jobs will be lost in the UK but it is thought the figure could be close to 2,000.
Looney told staff in a company-wide email on Monday:
You are already aware that, beyond the clear human tragedy, there has been widespread economic fallout, along with consequences for our industry and our company.
The oil price has plunged well below the level we need to turn a profit. We are spending much, much more than we make – I am talking millions of dollars, every day. And as a result, our net debt rose by $6bn in the first quarter.
Updated
A further 59 people have died in hospital in England after testing positive for coronavirus, bringing the total to 27,490.
The patients were aged between 34 and 100, with three aged between 54 and 68 known to have had underlying health conditions.
No deaths were reported in London hospitals for the second day in a row but NHS England said a “small number” of people had died and these would be included in figures in the next few days.
Lowest UK daily death toll since 22 March
A further 55 people have died after contracting Covid-19 in UK, taking the country’s death toll to 40,597.
The rise is the lowest daily total of newly reported deaths since 22 March, according to PA analysis, but there is often a lag in the reporting of deaths over a weekend and the government figures do not include all deaths involving Covid-19 across the UK, which is thought to have passed 50,000.
Updated
A leading epidemiologist has said success in tackling Covid-19 relies on leaders being honest about their strategy.
In an article for the Guardian, Liam Smeeth, dean of the Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said:
Public confidence is critical to beating this epidemic because the key tools – social distancing, contact-tracing and self-isolation – only work if people fully engage.
Two factors have massively dented public confidence, threatening control efforts.
First, the obvious lack of a clear long-term strategy, which creates the impression of a government that is not in control.
Second, a series of political mishaps. The health secretary blaming PPE shortages on NHS staff. The prime minister’s confused address to the nation on 10 May. And a top government adviser – Dominic Cummings – breaking the very spirit of collective action needed to defeat the epidemic.
If we are to control this epidemic, we need the whole country to be united in a collective effort. To achieve this we need to restore trust in the government.
A starting point would be an unequivocal apology for the mistakes made so far. For each major error we need a clear plan in place for how the negative impact will be mitigated.
We then need a clear long-term strategy for minimising the future impact of the epidemic, covering the possibilities of us getting an effective or partially effective vaccine, or no vaccine at all.
This strategy needs to be explained to the whole population, and as new measures are announced, they must be presented as part of this overall strategy.
A further three people have died after testing positive for coronavirus in Wales, taking the total number of deaths in the country to 1,401.
Another 42 people have tested positive for Covid-19, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the country to 14,438.
Updated
Dr Mary Bousted, joint general secretary of the National Education Union, said it was “absolutely right” that exam regulator Ofqual should put in place contingency plans for next summer’s exams to account for a possible second wave of Covid-19 infections.
She told BBC Radio 4’s World At One:
I think it is essential that Ofqual draws up plans in the event that there can’t be exams next year because we are in a second spike.
And the fact is also that young people and teachers will have lost quite a lot of teaching time so there has to be a real discussion about what those exams will look like.
The students might need to have greater choice in the questions they answer.
Because education has been so disrupted, it is absolutely right that Ofqual should plan for education not as normal.
Bousted called on the UK government to follow the example of the devolved administrations in coming up with ways of teaching in different formats to tackle the spread of Covid-19, including the wider use of buildings to allow for physical distancing, as well as forms of long-distance learning.
Updated
Dentists have called for key worker status and access to the government PPE supply chain, as one industry survey suggests only around one third of surgeries have opted to open today (36%).
In an open letter to the health secretary, Matt Hancock, the British Dental Association (BDA) said that “since lockdown, support from across government for our members has been far too limited. That cannot continue”.
One dentist has described the return to work as “nerve-wracking”.
Roy Woodhoo, 36, at Woodford Green Dental Care, told the PA news agency he has been “frustrated” he has not been able to help patients for weeks.
“We’ve had patients calling up since the beginning of lockdown and it’s been frustrating in that we have not been able to help them as much as we could,” he said.
The BDA previously warned there will be no return to “business as usual” for the industry, with patients likely to see a “skeleton service” today.
A polling of 2,053 surgeries found that more than 60% of practices estimate they will be able to treat less than a quarter of the patient numbers they saw prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Just one third of practices said they had enough PPE to provide face-to-face care, and only 15% reported they would be able to offer a full range of treatment.
Chair of the BDA, Mick Armstrong, said surgeries are “operating at a fraction of their pre-pandemic capacity” and asked the health secretary to “take responsibility to avert the existential crisis facing a service struggling with sky-high costs and radically reduced patient numbers”. He added:
For years, communities from Cornwall to Cumbria struggled to get appointments but were ignored.
Without action from this government access problems - on an unprecedented scale - are going to be visited on millions of patients, in every part in England.
A department of health and social care spokesman said:
“The safety of patients and those working in dental practices will be our top priority. We are working around the clock to make sure frontline healthcare staff have the PPE they need and have made further supplies available to the dental sector via wholesalers last week.”
Updated
The luxury British brand Mulberry is planning to cut at least 25% of its global workforce of almost 1,400 to reduce costs as sales have suffered because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The company, which employs 1,140 staff in the UK, is seeking to make the cuts across its entire business, from head office and retail to manufacturing and distribution.
Mulberry has launched a consultation with the 470 staff whose jobs are at risk, a third of its workforce, with the aim to cut “approximately” a quarter of its global workforce.
Downing Street has dismissed suggestions the system of quarantine for passengers arriving in the UK could be replaced by coronavirus checks at airports.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said people needed to self-isolate for 14 days as it could be a “significant number of days” after becoming infected before they developed symptoms.
The spokesman said:
They could potentially have a test at the border, that test could say that they were negative for coronavirus and then a few days later they may start to develop symptoms and by that point they might have already been spreading the virus.
This is Jessica Murray, I’ve taken over the blog from Matthew for the rest of the day - please do get in touch with any questions or suggestions:
Email: jessica.murray@theguardian.com
Twitter: @journojess_
Lockdown reduced infection rate by 81%, research shows
Lockdowns had a dramatic impact on the spread of coronavirus in Europe with strict controls on people’s movements preventing an estimated 3.1 million deaths by the beginning of May, and 470,000 deaths averted in the UK alone, researchers say.
Outbreak modellers at Imperial College London said that lockdown slashed the average number of people that contagious individuals infected by 81% and lowered the reproduction number, R, of the epidemic below 1 in all countries they observed.
When R is less than 1 the epidemic is in decline because, on average, each infected person transmits the infection to less than one other. As countries ease out of their lockdown, scientists are watching R closely: if it rises and remains above 1, the epidemic will grow exponentially.
The Imperial team pooled data on Covid-19 deaths from 11 European countries including the UK, Italy, France, Spain and Germany, and worked backwards to calculate the extent of transmission several weeks earlier, to account for the time lag between infections and deaths. Lockdown at the end of March reduced the reproductive number of the UK epidemic from 3.8 to 0.63, they calculate.
The model shows that by 4 May between 12 million and 15 million people had become infected, but some nations were hit far harder than others. According to the model Belgium had the largest number of cases per capita with 8% of the population infected, compared with only 0.46% of Norwegians and 0.85% of Germans. Some 5.1% of the UK population was infected, according to a report published in Nature.
“Our model estimates that we are very far away from herd immunity,” said Axel Gandy, a professor of statistics at Imperial and co-author on the study. Herd immunity is achieved when enough people are immune to a virus that outbreaks die out naturally. In the case of Covid-19, scientists believe upwards of 70% of the population would need to be resistant for herd immunity to kick in.
“It tells us we need to be very careful and not to release too much in one go because then you have no control,” Gandy said. “We need to tread very carefully and do things slowly, so we can backtrack should they not work.”
Updated
'Good level of compliance' with quarantine rules, says No 10
The Downing Street lobby briefing is over. Here are some of the main lines.
- The prime minister’s spokesman claimed there had been a “good level of compliance” with the quarantine rules being introduced today.
- The spokesman played down the prospect of all EU countries being exempted from the quarantine rules from July. According to a report in the Sun, the PM would like all EU countries to be subject to an exemption from mid-July. The spokesman refused to confirm that. He just reminded journalists that the PM last week confirmed that the government was looking at setting up “air corridors” (exemptions) for particular countries
- The spokesman said that it was still the government’s intention for non-essential shops to open from next Monday, subject to this being deemed safe. The final decision has not yet been taken, the spokesman said. He also said that he expected this to be a decision that would apply England-wide.
- The spokesman claimed that the Covid alert level was still moving down from 4, its current level, to 3. But he did not contest claims that moving to level 3 is no longer a precondition for lockdown measures being eased, as the government said when the alert level system was first announced.
- The spokesman played down a Financial Times report saying pubs and restaurants might be allowed to serve people outdoors from 22 June. The spokesman said that the plan was still for to happen from July.
- The spokesman said that Boris Johnson was “working as normal” when asked if it was true that he needed long naps during the day. The claim was made in a Sunday paper, which suggested Johnson has not recovered fully from coronavirus. Asked about this, the spokesman said that Johnson was working as usual and that another story in the Sunday papers was about the PM playing tennis. When it was put to him that perhaps he needed the naps after playing tennis, the spokesman said: “The PM is working as normal.”
- Matt Hancock would take the government press conference this afternoon at 5pm, the spokesman said.
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Second home owners in Wales may get the chance to take a holiday in their properties this summer, the Welsh first minister has said.
Mark Drakeford revealed the Welsh government was discussing the possibility of people being able to use self-contained accommodation - but he said that local communities would have to support such a move.
The first minister said:
There is a distinction to be drawn between people who have their own kitchen and their own bathroom....That will be different, I think, to someone travelling to stay somewhere where they are sharing kitchens, showers, toilets, where inevitably the level of risk will be greater.
Drakeford said that once a visitor arrived at, for example, a self-contained cottage, they would be governed by the Welsh advice not to travel more than five miles from their base.
He acknowledged there had been concern from communities in parts of north-west and south-west Wales who worry that an influx of visitors could lead to a spike in Covid-19 cases. “It’s got to be with community consent,” he said.
Drakeford also said the possibility that pubs and restaurants could re-open in some way if the number of cases continued to fall would be discussed this week.
He said:
This will be on the list [of restrictions to discuss] with many other things. Whether it will be possible to do something at the end of this three-week cycle I can’t make any promises about that.
It will depend on whether the number of new cases in Wales continues to fall and whether that creates any additional headroom for us.
Without public faith in government actions, the UK will never beat Covid-19, warns Liam Smeeth, dean of the Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Public confidence is critical to beating this epidemic because the key tools – social distancing, contact-tracing and self-isolation – only work if people fully engage. Two factors have massively dented public confidence, threatening control efforts. First, the obvious lack of a clear long-term strategy, which creates the impression of a government that is not in control. Second, a series of political mishaps. The health secretary blaming PPE shortages on NHS staff. The prime minister’s confused address to the nation on 10 May. And a top government adviser – Dominic Cummings – breaking the very spirit of collective action needed to defeat the epidemic.
If we are to control this epidemic, we need the whole country to be united in a collective effort. To achieve this we need to restore trust in the government. A starting point would be an unequivocal apology for the mistakes made so far.
Shielding in Scotland extended to 31 July
Addressing those who have been shielding because of a pre-existing health condition, Sturgeon said shielding “remains necessary” and should continue until 31 July.
However, the first minister said she hoped to be able to move to a “tailored position” where individuals would be given more specialist advice on how to protect themselves from the virus.
From 18 June, Sturgeon said, those who were shielding, unless they live in care homes, would be able to leave their home for daily exercise, but they woujld not be able to take part in sports or meet those from other households in the way other Scots have been able to.
Sturgeon said she expected the measures to be put in place for the shielded group next week. They would be kept “under review” before 31 July, she added.
Sturgeon said at the briefing that she was “hopeful” that if the suppression of the virus continued in the same way that it had in recent days, the review on 18 June would enable Scotland to move to the second phase of the coronavirus recovery.
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No new coronavirus deaths in Scotland for second day running
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has announced that no one has been recorded to have died in Scotland from confirmed Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, for the second day running.
Sturgeon said this was very welcome news but cautioned against assuming the crisis was over. That result only included people with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases, but it meant the total deaths by that measure remained at 2,415.
“This is, of course, the second day in a row that no deaths have been registered in the preceding 24 hours. This is very encouraging,” she said. “I can’t tell you how long I have hoped to report such a development and I know all of you have longed to heare that, but even so we must exercise caution.”
Sturgeon said it was still “highly likely” more Covid cases would emerge in the next few days since recorded cases often fell over the weekend.
The number of positive cases recorded in the last 24 hours grew by 18 to total 15,639 since the outbreak began; there were 1,042 patients in hospital, an increase of 40 from yesterday, with 24 people in intensive care, down by one.
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More courts and tribunal buildings are to reopen in England and Wales as the lockdown eases.
The justice secretary, Robert Buckland praised the judiciary and court staff for ensuring that “justice has not stood still” in recent months, as he said the latest move would give people confidence that justice could “continue to be done in a way that is safe”.
A total of 16 more buildings across England and Wales have been assessed as suitable for socially-distanced hearings, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) said. This means that 184 court and tribunal buildings were open for essential face-to-face hearings, it added.
In echoes of the Nightingale hospitals set up to help treat Covid-19 patients, the MoJ said work had started to identify suitable public venues such as civic centres to act as Nightingale courts, enabling more work to be carried out, such as full hearings, or allowing victims and witnesses to attend remotely, while maintaining physical distancing.
Many hearings, where possible, both in the civil and criminal courts, have been conducted remotely since lockdown measures were imposed at the end of March.
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Sportspeople in Northern Ireland are returning to training after the lockdown eased significantly, PA reports.
The main outdoor athletics track reopened, while large retailers like car showrooms and Debenhams in Belfast were also given the go-ahead to resume trading.
People queued for entry to the department store selling clothes and furniture in a city centre which has been largely empty for weeks barring recent anti-racism rallies.
Mary Peters Track, named after the Olympic gold medal-winning pentathlete from the city, is Northern Ireland’s pre-eminent venue for athletes.
Kerry Woods, a director at Athletics Northern Ireland, said: “It has been a very difficult time for our athletes, to try and find an alternative venue. It has been very challenging for a lot of them. We are delighted to have it back and up and open.”
Only 12 are allowed at the same time, with a maximum of six sportsmen and women and coaches working together. Sand pits for long jump remain closed, and athletes have to take their own equipment and use hand sanitisers. Normally at this time of year up to 28,000 people would use the south Belfast venue.
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The Scottish Tories have called on Nicola Sturgeon to sack her health secretary, Jeane Freeman, after it emerged that 18,000 shielding people with underlying health conditions were wrongly told they could leave their homes today.
Jackson Carlaw, the Scottish Tory leader, said it was the latest in a series of incidents where Freeman or her officials had allegedly blundered. Those included failing to disclose Scotland’s first outbreak at a Nike conference in Edinburgh in late February, and failing to test hospital patients being discharged into care homes.
In an intervention demonstrating the temporary truce between the Scottish National party and Tories has now ended, Carlaw said his party had identified eleven times where Freeman had been lucky to remain in post. That included the disclosure at the weekend that hospital staff are still not being routinely tested for Covid-19.
“The misplaced loyalty shown by the first minister to her health secretary is having a negative impact on the NHS,” he said.
“A litany of problems had built up before, not least infection deaths of children at the SNP’s flagship hospital in Glasgow [the Queen Elizabeth], and the continued unacceptable delays of the new Sick Kids in Edinburgh.
“These have been compounded by a dismal performance during the pandemic too. Nicola Sturgeon has to take the blinkers off and find someone who can actually get on top of these problems.”
The Daily Record reported today that nearly 18,000 shielding people were sent letters in April on behalf of the then chief medical officer, Catherine Calderwood, telling them they could stop shielding today, 8 June.
Officials had miscalculated when those people began their 12 week long period of shielding: on Wednesday last week they were sent a further letter saying they needed to continue shielding until 18 June.
A law graduate has set up a crowdfunding campaign to raise funds for a possible private prosecution against Dominic Cummings for alleged breach in the lockdown rules.
Mahsa Taliefar has raised more than £1,350 towards a target of £300,000 for a legal fighting fund. She says any money not used for the legal action will be donated to the development charity Vision Aid Overseas.
Taliefar says she has been subjected to misogynistic abuse since launching the appeal.
In a message to her social media followers she said: “I find that totally unacceptable given that the campaign has nothing to with my gender or looks. Many of Cummings supporters have also aggressively told me to ‘move on’ but we should not until he does so.”
She added: “This campaign is not politically motivated but simply holding those who refuse to apologise for [allegedly] breaking the law accountable.”
Separately, a campaign for a new investigation into Cummings over alleged breaches of the lockdown rules has been launched by lawyers with the backing of health workers and some families of coronavirus victims.
The law firm Hodge Jones & Allen, which specialises in human rights and civil liberties, said the move was part of a “citizens’ bid” for a thorough investigation into Cummings over his trips to Durham and Barnard Castle.
One of the firm’s partners, Mike Schwarz, says a three-day investigation by Durham police last month was flawed after it found that no further action was required.
Updated
For the latest reaction to the Black Lives Matter protests across the UK, please go to our politics live blog:
Travellers to UK say quarantine measure lack common sense
Passengers arriving at Stansted Airport on a flight from Eindhoven in the Netherlands have been sharing views on new quarantine measures with PA.
Shopkeeper Netti Rexhmet, 32, who runs an off-licence in Chigwell in London, said the rule will prevent him from working for a fortnight.
Speaking as he walked through arrivals on Monday, he said:
We haven’t got any other options, it’s Government law so I shall do it. For me, I wouldn’t want to do it. I’d like to be open. I’ve got things to do, you have to live now, you have to pay.
Ali Gurlek, 30, a software developer from London who spent the weekend visiting friends in the Netherlands, said measures lacked “common sense”.
He said:
Now we’re going to use public transport. If we have it then it’s going to spread that. It doesn’t look very common sense.
Kamil Farah, 24, from East Ham, London, said:
I don’t want to do it but I have to for the better good. There’s a lot of people dying and a lot of things happened this year.
Pub gardens in England could open from 22 June
Opening beer gardens before the end of the month would give struggling pubs a psychological boost but most would still lose money, JD Wetherspoon’s founder, Tim Martin, has said.
The government is reportedly ready to let pub beer gardens in England reopen from 22 June as part of plans drawn up by a group of ministers, dubbed the “Save Summer Six”, who are looking at ways to restart the hospitality industry earlier than initially planned.
The proposals, first reported in the Financial Times, would allow some of the 27,000 pubs that have outdoor space to serve customers for the first time in three months.
Martin, the chairman of JD Wetherspoon, said: “Few pubs will be able to make a profit using outdoor space only but partial reopening will provide a psychological boost to a beleaguered industry.
“It will signal the intent of the government to make progress towards normality, which will be welcome.”
Almost 700 of Wetherspoons’ 867 pubs have a beer garden, roof terrace or patio and the company has previously set out plans for a coronavirus pandemic-era pub involving bar staff wearing goggles and protective screens between tables.
Welcome to our UK coronavirus live coverage today, where controversial quarantine rules for new arrival have come into force.
Britain’s three biggest airlines have begun a challenge against the measures. Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has warned that the new rules will cause “untold devastation” for the country’s tourism industry.
He told BBC Radio’s 4’s Today programme:
What it is going to do is untold devastation, not just to the airlines but to British tourism. The thousands of hotels, the thousands of visitor attractions, restaurants in the next couple of months – July and August are the two key months for British tourism in the tourism industry.
We’re facing thousands of jobs losses because of a stupid, ineffective quarantine.
He said Ryanair bookings were down about 50% on the same time last year but that outbound flights remained popular compared with inbound journeys, with European travellers being put off coming to the UK due to the restrictions to self-isolate for 14 days upon arrival.
