Early evening summary
- The UK has recorded 608 further coronavirus deaths - the highest daily total since early May - although case numbers are continuing to fall, the latest government figures show. (See 4.35pm.)
That’s all from me for today. But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.
Exports of sausages into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK could be blocked from next year as the EU is yet to agree to an exemption to its rules on chilled and fresh processed meat.
A range of foods such as unfrozen mince or sausage meat produced outside the EU is considered so high risk to health that there is a de facto ban on them being imported into the single market.
After 1 January, Northern Ireland will stay under single market legislation as the rest of the UK exits the EU’s legal order, creating a regulatory barrier within the UK.
EU and UK officials are currently seeking to find a solution but Brussels currently has no provisions that would allow for an exemption from its rule book.
Nick Allen of the British Meat Processors Association said: “The problem is that there is no export health certificate in existence to do these things.”
Under a protocol in the withdrawal agreement designed to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, the UK government agreed that Northern Ireland would in effect stay in the EU’s single market. The EU’s customs code will also be enforced between goods travelling from Britain to Northern Ireland.
Speaking after a meeting of the four governments, the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, said:
This has been a very long and difficult year for everyone. All our lives have been turned upside down by the coronavirus pandemic.
Everyone has done so much to help control the spread of the virus and to save lives. But that has meant many sacrifices, including not seeing family and close friends. We are all looking forward to Christmas and a chance to spend some time with all those we hold dear.
Today, I met the first ministers of Scotland and Northern Ireland and Michael Gove, from the UK government, and I’m pleased we were able to agree a common four-nation plan for the festive period.
Commenting on the new rules, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, said:
In coming to this agreement, we have listened to scientific and clinical advice on how best to minimise the risk and reach a balanced and workable set of rules that we hope will allow people to spend time together at this important time of year.
Updated
Confirming the Christmas plans, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon warned that there is a risk inherent in any relaxation of the restrictions and asked everyone to consider very carefully whether the opportunity to mix for a few days is necessary. She said:
We know that for some, contact with friends and family is crucial during this time as isolation and loneliness can hit people especially hard over the Christmas period. The “bubble” approach aims to reduce this impact.
She was also clear that the relaxations did not extend to Hogmanay, which has historically been of greater social significance in Scotland.
Even this short relaxation will give the virus a chance to spread. Our priority is to suppress transmission of Covid-19 and reduce the risk to the vulnerable and those who have spent so long shielding - and that involves abiding by the rules.
Just because you can mix with others indoors over this time, that doesn’t mean you have to. If you choose to stick with the rules as they are, then you will be continuing the hard work to beat this virus and prevent its spread.
Earlier today Sturgeon warned MSPs that, while she expected the Christmas framework to be agreed later, there could be differences in what constituted a household in different parts of the UK. She told the Holyrood chamber:
I will take part in a Cobra meeting later today where it is hoped that we will agree a common framework – albeit that some details, for example on the precise definition of household - might differ to reflect the different circumstances in each nation.
Updated
Coronavirus rules for Christmas across the UK
We have just had a No 10 briefing on the plans for Christmas. Here are the main points.
- The UK government and the devolved administrations have agreed to relax the rules over Christmas. Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, attended the meeting with Nicola Sturgeon, Mark Drakeford and Arlene Foster, the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland respectively, and their deputies.
- Up to three households will be able to form a “Christmas bubble” from 23 to 27 December. There is no maximum size for a bubble.
- Individuals will be able to travel between tiers and across the UK during that period.
- People will be able to travel to and from Northern Ireland for an extra day either side of that period, to allow for the extra travel time.
- The bubbles have to be exclusive; they cannot change. They can meet in homes, in public spaces or in places of worship. But people cannot meet in their bubbles in pubs or restaurants.
- People can meet people outside their bubbles outside their homes - but only in accordance with the local rules.
- A support bubble will count as one household when “Christmas bubbles” are being formed.
- Children whose parents are separated will be able to move between two “Christmas bubbles”.
- In England a group of, say, four young people living together would all be allowed to return home to their four separate families for Christmas without that disrupting the three-households-only rule.
- No 10 views this as a “proportionate” solution that will allow families to meet up to an extent - while limiting the risk of the virus spreading.
- All four chief medical officers have worked on this plan. They view it as striking a balance between allowing some contact and minimising the risk.
Updated
Joint statement from four UK governments on rules for Christmas
The four UK governments have put out a joint statement about the decision to relax restrictions for Christmas. Here is the full text (from the Welsh government’s press release.)
As 2020 draws to a close, we recognise it has been an incredibly difficult year for us all. We have all had to make significant sacrifices in our everyday lives, and many religious and community groups have already had to change or forgo their customary celebrations to slow the spread of coronavirus and save lives.
This cannot be a ‘normal’ Christmas. But as we approach the festive period, we have been working closely together to find a way for family and friends to see each other, even if it is for a short time, and recognising that it must be both limited and cautious.
Even where it is within the rules, meeting with friends and family over Christmas will be a personal judgment for individuals to take, mindful of the risks to themselves and others, particularly those who are vulnerable. We need everyone to think carefully about what they do during this period, balancing some increased social contact with the need to keep the risk of increased transmission of the virus as low as possible. This is particularly important when considering those who are vulnerable, and before deciding to come together over the festive period we urge the consideration of alternative approaches such as the use of technology or meeting outside.
In this context, the four administrations have reached agreement on a single set of UK-wide measures to help people come together with their loved ones in a way that is as safe as possible.
Today we have agreed that:
- Travel restrictions across the four administrations and between tiers will be lifted to provide a window for households to come together between 23 and 27 of December.
- Up to three households can form an exclusive ‘bubble’ to meet at home during this period. When a bubble is formed it is fixed, and must not be changed or extended further at any point.
- Each Christmas bubble can meet at home, at a place of worship or an outdoor public place, but existing, more restrictive rules on hospitality and meeting in other venues will be maintained throughout this period.
It is important that everyone respects and abides by the rules of each nation wherever they choose to spend the festive period. Where there are any variations in our approach, these will be communicated by each administration accordingly. Further guidance will be provided in due course.
The winter holiday period is a time often spent with family and friends, with schools and offices closing and people travelling over the bank holidays. Many have already begun making their plans, and we are today providing clarity to help people make the right choices for them, and enjoy time with those closest to them while staying within the rules to protect us all.
Updated
UK Christmas Covid plan lets three households mix for five days
As many as three different households will be allowed to mix for five days over the Christmas period, government sources have said, under a UK-wide plan agreed on Friday between ministers and the devolved nations, my colleagues Peter Walker and Jessica Elgot report.
Updated
Three households to be allowed to mix for up to five days over Christmas, ministers agree
This is from PA Media.
Three households will be allowed to mix for up to five days in a plan to allow families to reunite at Christmas, government sources said.
From my colleague Jessica Elgot
Understand Christmas plan has been agreed by devolved nations - statement shortly
— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) November 24, 2020
Updated
In Northern Ireland just 79 further coronavirus cases have been recorded. But that may be because of a problem with the data, the local Department of Health says. A week ago today the figure was 549.
Please note there is currently an issue with the data being reported from Pillar 2 testing and today’s testing figures may be subject to change. We are investigating whether there has been a shortfall in the reporting or processing of completed Pillar 2 tests. pic.twitter.com/CLrAci6Bi5
— Department of Health (@healthdpt) November 24, 2020
And 11 further deaths have been recorded - up from nine a week ago today.
Public Health Wales has recorded 595 further coronavirus cases. That is down from 892 yesterday and down from 705 a week ago today.
And it has recorded 21 further deaths - down from 34 a week ago today.
Tomorrow Rishi Sunak will deliver the his spending review. The Treasury has posted various pictures of him rehearsing his speech on Flickr.
Updated
UK records 608 more Covid deaths, highest total since early May, as new cases fall sharply
The UK government has updated its coronavirus dashboard. Here are the key figures.
- The UK has recorded 11,299 new coronavirus cases - the lowest daily total for more than seven weeks. Yesterday the figure was 15,450 and a week ago today the figure was 20,051. Daily figures can fluctuate widely, because they are dependent on how much testing is being carried out, and today’s fall is probably partly explained by the fact that the number of tests being carried out fell significantly over the weekend and on Monday. But today’s figure is also in line with a trend showing the number of positive cases falling sharply since mid-November. There have been 128,062 positive cases in the past seven days - down 28% on the total for the previous week.
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The UK has recorded 608 further coronavirus deaths - the highest daily figure since early May. These are people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for coronavirus. This is the highest daily death total in this wave of the pandemic, and the first time daily deaths have passed 600. A week ago today the equivalent figure was 598, and two weeks ago it was 532. The daily figure has not been this high since 12 May.
Updated
The Cobra meeting to discuss a joint, four-nations approach to easing the Covid restrictions at Christmas, was scheduled to start at 4pm, so it should just be getting under way now. Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is chairing it.
Updated
A salon owner in West Yorkshire faces £17,000 in fines for repeatedly opening during the national lockdown.
Sinead Quinn was found working at Quinn Blakey Hairdressers by Kirklees council officers yesterday and issued a £10,000 fine. She was previously issued fines of £4,000, £2,000 and £1,000 for breaches of the Covid-19 lockdown rules.
Footage posted to the salon’s Instagram account by Quinn shows her talking to council and police officers, saying she did “not consent” to the fines and that she was able to open her salon under common law.
One video also shows both Quinn, and a client having her hair done, while not wearing face coverings.
A laminated poster displayed on the salon’s door, which references Magna Carta, says the shop is “under jurisdiction of the common law”.
Under England’s current national lockdown restrictions, non-essential shops including hairdressers must close.
Following the salon’s first breach more than two weeks ago, when Quinn was issued a prohibition notice to close by the council as well as an initial fixed penalty notice of £1,000, Kirklees councillor Rob Walker described her actions as “selfish and irresponsible”.
West Yorkshire police have said the matter is to be dealt with by the council.
Updated
Updated
According to a poll for Ipsos MORI, only 50% of people think the lockdown in England will be “effective” in “significantly” reducing the spread of coronavirus. Some 41% think it will be “ineffective”.
Who’s right? Well, it probably depends on how you define “effective” and “significantly”.
The 50% can point to the fact that Covid case rates are now falling in most regions in England, in some cases quite dramatically. But the 41% can point to the fact that, even though hospital admissions are stabilising or starting to fall too, the overall threat is still high enough to require the government to replace lockdown with a new three-tier system even stricter than the one in place before.
Scotland has recorded 771 further coronavirus cases. That is down from 949 yesterday and down from 1,248 a week ago today.
There are 1,197 coronavirus patients in hospital - down from 1,208 yesterday and down from 1,249 a week ago today.
And there have been 41 further deaths - up from 37 a week ago today.
According to Newsnight’s Katie Razzall, although the government is offering everyone in Liverpool a coronavirus test under its mass testing pilot, in some of the poorer areas of the city only 4% of people have had a test. She has summarised her report in a Twitter thread starting here.
Thoughts for what's it's worth on mass testing after a day or two in Liverpool. Our story on @BBCNewsnight tonight reveals that the testing pilot is failing to reach the poorest communities in the city. In some parts, only 4% of residents have turned up to be tested
— Katie Razzall (@katierazz) November 23, 2020
Dan Carden, the Labour MP for Liverpool Walton, said:
Unless the financial barriers to self-isolation are lifted, any testing strategy is doomed to failure.
The government’s criteria for the £500 self-isolation support grant is so strict that 80% of applicants for the mandatory scheme in Liverpool are refused. Statutory sick pay isn’t enough to pay the bills, never mind live on, and too many people miss out.
NHS England has recorded 353 further coronavirus hospital deaths. There were 101 in the Midlands, 80 in the north-east and Yorkshire, 71 in the north-west, 35 in in the south-east, 24 in the south-west, 21 in London and 21 in the east of England. The details are here.
This is the second highest daily figure for coronavirus hospital deaths in England this month, passed only by the total for 11 November (361). Yesterday the figure was 178 and a week ago today the figure was 330.
Drakeford says gains made during Welsh lockdown now being reversed
Some of the “gains” made in Wales during its 17-day firebreak are already being reversed, the first minister, Mark Drakeford, has warned.
After the Welsh firebreak lockdown, the all-Wales coronavirus figures fell for two weeks but Drakeford said there had now been three days in a row where the numbers have risen.
He said 17 of the 22 local authorities have reported rises in infections in the under-25 age range – while it was the falling in the over-60s. The first minister said rapid rises in September and the start of October began in young people before spreading to older men and women.
Conservative MPs are openly arguing with each other on Twitter about the case for Covid restrictions. Yesterday Steve Baker, deputy chair of the lockdown-sceptic Covid Recovery Group, posted this.
Contrary to SAGE modelling:
— Steve Baker MP (@SteveBakerHW) November 23, 2020
🔵 The peak of infections occurred in the week before lockdown nationally.
🔵 Covid cases overall and in the over 60s was stabilising nationally in the week before lockdown.
The reality is we were over the peak before the lockdown started 👇 pic.twitter.com/txBGMF18f8
His Tory colleague Neil O’Brien has this afternoon posted a chart on Twitter that he says shows Baker to be “just wrong”.
The claim below from Steve is not true. Rates peaked about a week after the national restrictions came into effect. For the first time since spring we are seeing sustained reductions. The claim that 'it was falling anyway" is just wrong. https://t.co/fW33lXCNMD pic.twitter.com/0Bpw9gZgpB
— Neil O'Brien MP (@NeilDotObrien) November 24, 2020
Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed to MSPs that a four-nations Christmas framework should be agreed later today, with potential differences in what constitutes a household across the UK.
As she announced the weekly review of Scotland’s five-level tier system of Covid controls, with only one change, East Lothian moving into level two, she told the Holyrood chamber:
I will take part in a Cobra meeting later today where it is hoped that we will agree a common framework – albeit that some details, for example on the precise definition of household - might differ to reflect the different circumstances in each nation.
I know everyone has a desire to see loved ones over the festive period. However there is also a very real and legitimate anxiety that doing so could put those we love at risk, set back our progress as a country and result in unnecessary deaths and suffering.
She added that these concerns were “especially acute when we know we might be within weeks of being able to vaccinate a significant proportion of the population”.
This is from the New Statesman’s George Eaton, picking up on what Matt Hancock told a joint health/science committee hearing this morning. (See 12.24pm.)
Matt Hancock says today that Britons should take more sick days. Not having the lowest level of statutory sick pay in the OECD (£95.85 per week) might help. pic.twitter.com/kGUezgktUc
— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) November 24, 2020
Johnson criticised for missing four-nation Cobra meeting on joint rules for Christmas
The Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, has expressed frustration that Boris Johnson will not attend this afternoon’s Cobra meeting on a four-nation approach to Christmas.
Addressing the Welsh parliament, he said:
I’m told the prime minister will once again not attend the Cobra meeting this afternoon. You might think that given the significance of the decisions we are having to take there that the prime minister might think that was a conversation in which he would choose to be engaged.
Drakeford warned that an easing of rules at Christmas was bound to lead to an increase in the spread of Covid.
It will lead to more spreading of coronavirus because coronavirus thrives when people get together and the more people get together, the more coronavirus there will be.
He called for a four-nation approach not just for Christmas but for before and after. Drakeford said:
I have been arguing in the meetings we have had for a focus not just on a small number of days of Christmas itself, but the decisions we need to take in the lead-up to Christmas and how we will deal with the aftermath and to try to do that on a broadly common basis as well.
Councils in England to get new powers to shut premises for not being Covid-secure, No 10 says
Here are two more lines from the Downing Street lobby briefing.
- The prime minister’s spokesman said that councils in England will be given new powers to close businesses for up to a week if they fail to make their premises Covid-secure. He explained:
Until now, local authorities have been able to issue fines to businesses who have failed to comply with the legal obligations to be Covid-secure.
The new powers will allow them to formally request rapid improvement or close these premises where appropriate through the issuing of notices.
These will include a coronavirus improvement notice which will give premises 48 hours to rapidly implement Covid-secure measures; a coronavirus immediate restriction notice which will close any premises which pose a public health risk for an initial 48 hours to give the premises time to put in necessary safeguards; and a coronavirus restriction notice which will close premises for seven days.
The spokesman said premises will be fined £2,000 for breaching an improvement notice and £4,000 for breaching a restriction notice. The new powers will become law through secondary legislation being introduced next week. Councils have been asking for the ability to use measures like this for some time.
- The prime minister’s spokesman said the joint biosecurity centre would make recommendations to the government as to which areas of England should be in which of the new tiers.
Around one pupil in 10 in England missed school last week for Covid-related reasons, figures show
Around one in 10 children were absent from state schools in England last week for Covid-related reasons, according to official statistics which revealed yet another jump in the number of children sent home to self-isolate.
More than 870,000 children were not in school last Thursday, with secondary schools the most severely affected. Nearly three-quarters (73%) reported at least one pupil off self-isolating - up from 64% a week earlier - and more than one in five secondary pupils were absent (22%).
Figures published by the Department for Education showed that 82.9% of pupils were at school last week, down from 86.5% a week earlier. The impact on primary schools is also growing, with three in every 10 (29%) sending children home to self-isolate, up from 22% a week earlier.
More than a third of schools (36%) now have one or more children self isolating - up from 29% last week - and the impact on affected schools is growing, with a quarter reporting more than 30 pupils off isolating, up from 9% at the start of the month.
While the number of schools forced to close remains relatively small, numbers have doubled in the space of a week.
The National Education Union said the collapse in school attendance was the direct result of government negligence. Dr Mary Bousted, joint general secretary of the NEU, said:
Schools and teachers are working incredibly hard to keep the system running without any support or resources from the government. The situation has reached a crisis point and the government cannot let coronavirus run riot in schools any longer.
A Department for Education spokesperson said that it remained a national priority to keep education settings open full-time and that “at least 99% of schools have been open each week since the start of term”.
Updated
Gove to chair further four-nation talks as No 10 admits no agreement yet on joint Christmas rules
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is due to hold a meeting with representatives of the devolved administrations this afternoon to try to reach agreement on a joint approach to Christmas.
On Sunday the UK government briefed that an agreement was already more or less in the bag. But that seems to have been premature, and at the Downing Street lobby briefing the prime minister’s spokesman conceded that a four-nation consensus had not yet been reached. The spokesman said:
We have been clear of our desire to try and agree a four-nations approach which will allow families to meet up over the Christmas period ...
We continue to work with the devolved nations to agree a plan to allow families to meet up over Christmas. That work is ongoing and there will be a meeting later of Cobra to discuss it.
Cobra, the government’s emergency committee, is considering the matter because this is the mechanism used by the UK government for Covid decisions involving Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
No 10 conceded that no agreement has yet been reached, and was not able to say whether or not there would be a decision by the end of the day.
Updated
Tory 1922 Committee chair Graham Brady says he is minded to vote against new three-tier restrictions
Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee, has just told Radio 4’s the World at One that, although he does not yet know exactly what form the Commons vote on the new three-tier system of restrictions for England will take, “my inclination would be to oppose it”.
He explained:
My concern is that huge numbers of businesses, particularly but not exclusively in the hospitality sector, have been losing money under tier 2 already, and there’s a very tight limit to how much longer than they can go on doing without seeing even bigger levels of unemployment, and particularly youth unemployment.
And we know that if we see that big economic hit, in terms of unemployment, in terms of opportunities for young people, the effects - not just economically, but the other health impacts, physical health and mental health - are enormous, and that is the legacy we could be living with for years to come.
More than 30,000 extra deaths not linked to Covid-19 have now taken place in private homes in England and Wales since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, PA Media is reporting.
Extra deaths - known as “excess deaths” - are the number of deaths that are above the average for the corresponding period in the previous five years.
A total of 30,785 excess deaths in homes in England and Wales that did not involve Covid-19 were registered between March 7 and November 13, according to a PA analysis of data published by the Office for National Statistics.
Previous analysis by the ONS found that deaths in private homes in England for males from heart disease, from the start of the coronavirus pandemic through to early September, were 26% higher than the five-year average, while prostate cancer deaths had increased 53%.
For women, deaths in private homes from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease had increased 75%, while deaths from breast cancer were up 47%.
Here is the chart from today’s ONS report showing excess deaths in England and Wales this year, by place of death.
Jeremy Hunt, the health committee chair, wraps up the hearing with Matt Hancock by thanking him for his time.
Dawn Butler (Lab) goes next.
She asks why at an earlier hearing he did not answer a question about a meeting his department had with a PR company, Topham Guerin. Did they get a contract because they worked on the 2019 Conservative election campaign?
Hancock says Topham Guerin is an excellent organisation. He says all contracts are properly signed off.
Q: That is not what the NAO said.
Hancock disagrees. He says the NAO said, even though contracts were awarded quickly, they were signed off properly. And he says the fact that the NAO could then audit these contracts showed there was transparency.
Q: How will we know you are not just taking arbitrary decisions?
Hancock says the information behind those decisions about tiers will be published.
Q: Will you publish a cost-benefit analysis for every region?
Hancock says he plans to publish all the data informing the decisions about particular regions going into particular tiers.
Labour’s Graham Stringer goes next.
Q: When imposing tiers on areas, why are you not negotiating with locally elected representatives?
Hancock says, before the lockdown, in most cases the government had good discussions with local leaders. He mentions as an example Joe Anderson, the Liverpool city mayor. Anderson has texted him during the hearing, he says.
But he says that was not the case with all areas.
Q: Are you talking about Greater Manchester?
Not just them, says Hancock.
He says the councils that delayed decisions to go into a higher tier led to case numbers going up.
Updated
Hancock tells the committee that more than 20m people have now downloaded the NHS Covid-19 app.
Back in the committee Matt Hancock told MPs that he was asking the Joint Committee on Vaccines and Immunisation to consider whether people with learning disabilities should be prioritised for the coronavirus vaccine.
A recent report from Public Health England found that people with learning disabilities are dying of coronavirus at more than six times the rate of the general population.
Jeremy Hunt, the chair of the Commons health committee, has posted this on Twitter. It is a clip from Prof Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, who was giving evidence to the committee this morning (before Matt Hancock).
In it, she gives a crisp summary of why she thinks the UK has had such a high Covid death rate, arguing that the key mistake was made at the start when it was assumed it was a flu-like epidemic that could not be stopped.
Snappy summary from @devisridhar of how we have fared compared to other countries pic.twitter.com/5IYCQDmNOG
— Jeremy Hunt (@Jeremy_Hunt) November 24, 2020
Barbara Keeley (Lab) is asking the questions now.
Q: If relatives are not allowed to visit care homes, who is checking on the quality of care. We all know there are concerns in this area.
Hancock says the Care Quality Commission is responsible for supervising care homes. But he says family visits are recommencing, and relatives can check on the quality of the care given.
Greg Clark, the chair of the Commons science committee, is asking the questions now.
Q: Did you question whether Sir Patrick Vallance should present the chart at a No 10 press conference suggesting 4,000 people could die from a second wave?
Hancock says he thought it was reasonable for Vallance to make the decision to show that chart.
Updated
What Hancock says about using new testing capacity to end UK's 'working when ill' culture
Here is the full quote from Matt Hancock, the health secretary, when he told the committee earlier that after the pandemic was over he wanted to use the UK’s new testing capacity to end the British “working when ill” culture. (See 11.46am.)
Britain had built a “global-scale diagnostics capability”, he said. He went on:
Afterwards we must use it, not just for coronavirus but everything.
I want to have a change in the British way of doing things where ‘if in doubt, get a test’ doesn’t just refer to coronavirus but refers to any illness that you might have.
Why in Britain do we think it’s acceptable to soldier on and go into work if you have flu symptoms or a runny nose, thus making your colleagues ill?
I think that’s something that is going to have to change.
If you have, in future, flu-like symptoms, you should get a test for it and find out what’s wrong with you, and if you need to stay at home to protect others, then you should stay at home.
We are peculiarly unusual and outliers in soldiering on and still going to work, and it kind of being the culture that ‘as long as you can get out of bed you still should get into work’.
That should change.
This year there’s been far fewer respiratory and other communicable diseases turning up in the NHS.
I want this massive diagnostics capacity to be core to how we treat people in the NHS so that we help people to stay healthy in the first place, rather than just looking after them when they’re ill.
Updated
Q: Are you confident that death certificates mentioning coronavirus are an accurate measure of the impact of the disease? I have heard anecdotal evidence that doctors are including coronavirus on death certificates on a precautionary basis.
Hancock says that is a fair question. But he says the chief medical officer would say the best measure of the impact of coronavirus on mortality would be the all-cause excess mortality figures.
Paul Bristow (Con) goes next.
Q: Has an economic impact [assessment] been made of the coronavirus restrictions?
Hancock says that is a matter for the Treasury.
Q: So are you confident these measures are justified?
Hancock says he is, 100%.
He says ministers know that restrictions have an impact on the economy. But they have to strike a balance.
He says the tiering system has been devised to take into account the economic impact.
Q: Are deaths averted, and quality of life years saved, the only factors? Or do other factors count, like basic freedom?
Hancock says he agrees. He says decisions to impinge on people’s freedom weigh heavily on him, and on the prime minister.
He says he came into politics to improve people’s economic chances.
If R is above 1, cases will rise exponentially, he says. He says that will lead to tougher restrictions, which will have an even bigger economic impact.
Updated
Asked about the revelation that his department spent almost £50,000 on takeaway food for staff at the Department of Health and Social Care, Hancock says he will “defend to the death” this spending. He says feeding staff who were working late on coronavirus was good value for money.
Updated
Q: Do you think Eat Out to Help Out was a mistake?
Hancock says government has to balance different priorities.
It is important to help hospitality, he says. And he says in the summer the number of cases was very low.
Hancock says more than 100 rapid lateral flow tests have been assessed by the government at its Porton Down laboratory.
But only a handful have been approved, he says.
Hancock says he wants to end 'soldiering on' culture by ensuring people get tested when ill
Hancock says, having built a huge diagnostic capacity for coronavirus, he wants to ensure that it continues to get used after the pandemic is over.
He says he would like ‘if in doubt, get a test’ to become a much more normal approach.
He say it is is normal for Britons to go into work if they feel a bit ill. But he suggests that that is wrong, and that it should change. In other countries it is different, he suggests.
We are peculiarly unusual, and outliers, in soldiering on and still going in to work.
He says in future, if people have flu-like symptoms, he would like people to be able to go and get a test so that they find out what’s wrong.
UPDATE: Here are further quotes from the exchange.
Hancock "I want to have a change in the British way of doing things, when if in doubt you get a test not just for covid.. Why in Britain do we solider on with flu symptoms and go in and make everyone ill. We are peculiar unusual outliers in soldiering on. That should change". 1/2
— HealthServiceJournal (@HSJnews) November 24, 2020
Hancock on mass testing sites: "I want this massive diagnostic capacity to be core in health services" he said so we don't just help people when they are ill but help stop them getting ill too said it needs a culture change. 2/2
— HealthServiceJournal (@HSJnews) November 24, 2020
See 12.24pm for the full quotes.
Updated
Mark Logan (Con) goes next.
Q: What will Christmas look like this year?
Hancock says it won’t be normal. But he does not know exactly what it will look like. He is not involved in those discussions.
Q: Constituents feel that, because Eid and Diwali were disrupted, it would be unfair if Christmas gets special treatment.
Hancock says ministers have considered this point carefully. But they have taken the view that Christmas is the main national holiday.
I’m very sensitive to this point, and we did think about it and we engaged and we have discussed it.
The conclusion that we’ve come to, which I agree with very strongly, is that Christmas as a national holiday is the biggest national holiday that we have.
Of course it has particular importance for Christians, but it is an important national holiday for everybody in this country.
So while of course we considered the impact on those of other faiths, Christmas is a special time for everyone in this country.
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Q: So you think a two-week “circuit breaker” would have had to last longer?
Hancock says something would have had to come after it, because two weeks would not have been enough.
Hancock says he was “the architect” of the original tier system, and a big supporter of it.
But, as they could see case rates going up all around the country, they realised another approach was needed.
He says at that point a “circuit breaker” lockdown would have been a mistake, because it was not obvious what would happen next.
He says the new tiered system is “better calibrated” than the original one.
Q: What have your learnt as the pandemic has gone on?
Hancock says there are many things. As an example, he cites the way policy on schools has changed. At first the government did not know how risky it would be keeping them open. Now they are being kept open.
Carol Monaghan (SNP) is asking the questions now.
Q: Should we have locked down earlier?
Hancock says there will be a debate about this.
He says the government followed the advice it was given. In defence of that advice, he says the UK put its lockdown in place earlier in the pandemic curve than other countries in Europe.
Q: Earlier you were saying you were not bound by scientific advice?
Hancock says in this period (at the start of the pandemic) the government was following the scientific advice.
But he says at other times the government did not follow scientific advice. That is why he talked about being guided by the science, not following it. (See 11.16am.) He says the scientists were opposed to quarantine for arrivals from Wuhan. But he overruled them, he says.
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Q: What have you learnt about how to improve incentives to self-isolate?
Hancock says incentives are important. The £500 payments are important, he says.
He says he is sceptical about some numbers suggesting other countries have very high compliance rates. (Hunt quoted New York having rates above 90%.)
But Hancock says he is also sceptical of data showing very low compliance rates in the UK. One survey has produced a figure of just 20%. But that was a response to a question asked in a very general way, he suggests.
(It is claimed that this survey meant very minor breaches of self-isolation meant people were categorised as not observing the rules.)
Back in the committee Jeremy Hunt asks about Sage saying test and trace has only had a marginal impact.
Matt Hancock says, overall, test and trace has had an important impact. He suggests the Sage comment only referred to the impact of test and trace in a specific context.
You’ve got to look at what test and trace was doing in totality, as opposed to the very specific part that you mentioned. So in totality we wouldn’t have had the ability to test the people that we did unless we built the capacity; we wouldn’t now be in a position of being able to roll out the very widespread community testing, unless we had taken the action that we did.
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Turning away from the Matt Hancock hearing for a moment, this story is important to flag up. Leftwing members of Labour’s governing body have staged a mass online walkout in protest against the actions of the Labour leadership, my colleague Jessica Elgot reports.
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Asked about following the science, Hancock says he has always tried to say he was guided by the science. He says he does not like the term “following the science”, because it implies ministers did not have discretion.
Q: Did you get the best scientific advice?
Hancock says he thought he got the best scientific advice his advisers could give him.
The scientific advice was the best that was available. It’s tough because we started knowing nothing at all about this virus, and nothing about its biological properties, nothing about its impact on humans, and then nothing about how it transmitted and the social side of it, and that information built over time.
But he says there are lessons to be learnt.
He mentions Operation Cygnus, an exercise that prepared the government for a flu pandemic. He says it was valuable; as a result, the Coronavirus Act was available in draft. He goes on:
The problem was it started from the assumption that we were going to have a pandemic flu that was already rampant and widespread because it was an exercise about what you do at the period at which lots of people are already dying.
But what it didn’t ask was the prior question of what type of pandemic is most likely? What are the different characteristics of different pandemics like flu or coronavirus?
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Hancock says he hopes social distancing measures can be lifted after Easter
Jeremy Hunt, chair of the health committee, starts the questioning.
Q: If all vulnerable people are vaccinated by Easter, what will the social distancing rules be from then?
Hancock says it will depend on the data.
Vaccine trials can successfully test for whether they protect an individual.
In the AstraZeneca trial, there is also some evidence that it is having an impact on transmission too, he says.
But he says you cannot calibrate the impact mathematically until a large number of people have been vaccinated.
Q: Will we be back to normal after Easter?
Hancock says:
After Easter we think we will be getting back to normal.
Now, there are some things that are ‘no regrets’, right? Washing your hands more and some parts of social distancing are no-regrets things that, I think, will become commonplace.
But those damaging social distancing interventions that have downsides, whether economic or social downsides in terms of our wellbeing, I should hope that we can lift those after Easter if these two vaccines are approved by the regulator, which of course is an independent decision for the MHRA [Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency].
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Matt Hancock gives evidence to MPs on coronavirus
Matt Hancock, the health and social care secretary, is giving evidence now to the Commons health and science committees, who are holding a joint coronavirus inquiry.
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This is from Stuart McDonald, a member of the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group, on today’s ONS figures. (See 10.51am.)
Latest ONS deaths data (to week ending 13 November) has been released.
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) November 24, 2020
1,904 more deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 5-year average.
There had already been more deaths recorded in 2020 by 13 Nov than the whole of 2019 (also more than the average recent year). pic.twitter.com/cBvVwBHqo1
There are 2,466 deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate this week. However, this was partially offset by deaths from other causes being below normal levels.
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) November 24, 2020
Numbers are for England and Wales only and are 11-17 days old.
COVID-19 deaths have increased week-on-week for the tenth week in a row, with only a partial offsetting impact from other causes.
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) November 24, 2020
Total deaths in-week are significantly higher than average. The second wave is clearly resulting in significant excess deaths.
Excess deaths in England and Wales at almost 20%, ONS says
Excess deaths in England and Wales (the number of deaths above five-year seasonal norm) are now running at almost 20%, according to the latest ONS report. The figure for the week ending 13 November was 18.4%.
This chart shows the regional figures.
There has been a particular increase in the excess death rate in London (up from 0% in the previous week to 14.3%), in the east Midlands (up from 12.6% to 26.5%) and in the West Midlands (up from 9.1% to 22.7%).
And there has been a sharp decrease in Wales (down from 33.1% to 12.8%).
And these charts shows the trend for excess deaths in England and Wales (the gap between the dark blue line and the broken light blue line) over the year.
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There needs to be more focus on the way people mix inside homes rather than just thinking pubs are to blame for the spread of Covid-19, a government scientific adviser has said. As PA Media reports, Prof Lucy Yardley, a professor of health psychology at the University of Bristol and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the Today programme this morning that people were in danger of letting their guard down at home. She said:
In fact, when people come together with people they know well in their homes it’s a particularly risky situation because they let their guard down. They spend a lot of time with them and that’s actually when the infection is most likely to spread ...
We can see that in the evidence because so much of the infection spread is happening at home. And it’s a lot to do with ... not taking all the precautions that one actually does take when you go out to the pub. The pubs are actually better ventilated and have more regular cleaning every hour going on than we do in our own homes.
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James Landale, the BBC’s diplomatic correspondent, says the government is planning to legislate to allow it to abandon the 0.7% of gross national income target for spending on overseas aid. It is no surprise that the government intends to abandon this target - Boris Johnson made no attempt to deny this when asked about it in the Commons last week - but it has been assumed that ministers would do so by using one of the loopholes in the Overseas Development (Official Development Assistance Target) Act that enshrines the 0.7% target in law. The legislation was passed in 2015 by the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition.
But, Landale says, it is now being argued that without legislating to override the act, the government could be vulnerable to judicial review. He explains the situation in a Twitter thread starting here.
Excl: The BBC has learned the government is planning to pass new laws to cut Britain’s overseas aid budget, raising fears among MPs the reduction announced in tomorrow’s spending review could be permanent. 1/9
— James Landale (@BBCJLandale) November 24, 2020
In response Chris Law, the SNP’s international development spokesman, said:
Boris Johnson is doing irreparable damage to the UK’s reputation, and reneging on our duty to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable - by threatening to break our legally binding international aid commitment.
The 0.7% aid target is a shared commitment across the four UK nations – and it must not be broken by Westminster against Scotland’s will. The SNP will resist Tory plans to cut international aid spending in the strongest terms.
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Covid now accounting for more than 20% of English/Welsh deaths for first time since May, ONS figures show
One in five deaths in England and one in four in Wales in the second week of November involved Covid, according to the latest figures released by the Office for National Statistics.
There were 2,466 deaths with Covid-19 listed on the death certificate in the week to 13 November – an increase of 529 deaths compared with the previous week.
This is the first time Covid-19 has accounted for more than 20% of all deaths in England and Wales in a one-week period since late May.
The number of deaths involving Covid-19 increased in all regions, with the north-west having the highest number, at 615 deaths. Looking at excess deaths, the number of total deaths registered in this week was 18.4% above the five-year average.
Although the number of Covid deaths continues to grow – there were 27.3% more in England and Wales in the latest week than the week before – the rise has slowed. Deaths were doubling every fortnight for the seven weeks prior, but this slowed to 1.8 times in the week to 13 November.
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Londoners more than three times as likely to have had Covid as people in south-west, ONS figures suggest
The Office for National Statistics has published two Covid-related reports this morning: its regular weekly death figures for England and Wales, and a report with more detail from its infection survey.
The infection survey follow-up shows what proportion of the population in different parts of the UK test positive for Covid-19 antibodies. This is a sign that people have had the infection in the past, although not everyone who has had the virus will still have antibodies because these decline over time to the point where testing may not pick them up.
The ONS produced these figures using blood tests on random members of the public.
Here are the key findings.
- At least 6.9% of people in England have had the virus, the figures suggest, because that is the proportion of people testing positive for antibodies in October. But there is substantial regional variation. London has the highest figure, with 10.8% testing positive for antibodies. In the south-west it was 3.1%. Here is a chart with the figures for all the English regions.
- At least 4.1% of people in Wales have had coronavirus, because that was the proportion of people testing positive for antibodies in October.
- At least 2.1% of people in Northern Ireland have had coronavirus, because that was the proportion of people testing positive for antibodies in October.
- At least 7.1% of people in Scotland have had coronavirus, because that was the proportion of people testing positive for antibodies in October.
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Sky’s Joe Pike told viewers a few minutes ago that No 10 sources were briefing this morning that it could be the case that nowhere in England is in tier 1, where the lightest restrictions apply, when details of which areas are in which tiers are announced on Thursday.
Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, was giving interviews this morning to explain his plan for “test to release”, which will allow travellers to avoid 14-day quarantine if they pay for a test five days after their return to the UK and test negative. The government’s news release about the scheme is here, and here is our story from my colleague Gywn Topham.
On the Today programme this morning Michael O’Leary, the Ryanair chief executive, revealed that he was not impressed by the plan. He said:
I think the idea is not very well thought out. I think the problem with this system in the UK is that you only have to isolate for five days. And we know that people simply don’t isolate.
Christmas statement held up as four nations still seek agreement on rules
Good morning. Yesterday Boris Johnson announced the new three-tier framework for coronavirus restrictions in England from next week, and today we had been expecting a decision about how the rules will be relaxed over Christmas. The UK government has been negotiating this with the Scottish and Welsh governments, and the Northern Ireland assembly.
But the four nations of the UK do not yet seem to have reached consensus, and the government is saying we might have to wait another 48 hours. This is what Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, told the Today programme this morning when asked if the Christmas decision would come today. He replied:
No. I think what you’ll wait for is the tier system to come out, and an announcement about Christmas at the same time – unless it is the case that the four different parts of the United Kingdom, the devolved administrations, are ready to do that, in which case we’ll let people know as soon as possible.
Shapps said he thought the decision would come on Thursday, although he did not rule out an announcement before then. Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister who has been negotiating with the devolved administrations, is due to hold further talks with them today.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: The ONS publishes its weekly death figures for England and Wales. It is also publishing another report from its Covid infection survey, covering the characteristics of those infected.
11am: Matt Hancock, the health and social care secretary, gives evidence to the Commons science and health committees, who are holding a joint inquiry into lessons to be learned from coronavirus.
After 11am: Dame Sally Davies, the former chief medical officer for England, and Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London epidemiologist, speak at an Imperial College symposium on a post-Covid world.
12pm: The Department for Education publishes its latest pupil attendance figures.
12pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing.
After 2pm: Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, makes a statement to the Scottish parliament about coronavirus.
2.30pm: Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, gives evidence to the Commons defence committee.
Politics Live is now doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
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