Early evening summary
- Coronavirus cases are continuing to soar, with today’s figures showing the UK total at 14,542 - almost 2,000 more than yesterday and a new daily high. (See 4.32pm.)
- Some Tory MPs have been using a debate in the Commons to express concern about the operation of the rule of six. In the debate, which is still going on, the health minister Helen Whately has come under repeated pressure to explain why children are included in England’s rule of six, when that is not the case in Scotland or Wales. She was also asked to produce evidence that the rule is having an impact. Sir Christopher Chope told her she had failed to justify the law.
We’re talking about draconian powers which are restricting the liberty of the British citizen, we shouldn’t be introducing draconian powers without the strongest possible justification - I don’t think the minister has set out any justification in her remarks.
A vote is likely soon, but any backbench revolt tonight is expected to be minimal. Ministers are much more worried about what would happen in a vote on the compulsory 10pm closing time, which is deeply unpopular with Conservative and, unlike the rule of six, also opposed in its current form by Labour.
That’s all from me for today. But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.
Updated
Christina Pagel, head of the clinical operational research unit at University College London (which specialises in applying mathematical modelling to healthcare), say the hospital numbers (see 4.54pm) are worrying.
Exponential growth lesson: while 15,000 in hospital seems a long way away it's less than 3 doublings. At current rate of hospital growth, that's ~7 weeks. Recent numbers seem to be getting faster again, so possibly sooner. If we don't STOP growth, we will get there at some point. pic.twitter.com/S5XuK73q3l
— Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) October 6, 2020
Police are investigating a trip to a locked down part of Wales by the principal and vice-chancellor of the University of Aberdeen.
George Boyne travelled from Scotland to the Vale of Glamorgan in south Wales for a medical appointment and stayed at his home in Wales where his son is living.
People are allowed to enter the Vale of Glamorgan to attend a medical appointment but meeting someone indoors who is not in your immediate household indoors is banned.
A spokesperson said:
South Wales police is investigating the circumstances of Professor Boyne’s travel to the Vale of Glamorgan.
Should the investigation deem the travel to have been a breach of current Welsh government regulations, appropriate action – consistent with our approach throughout the pandemic – will be taken.
After concern about the trip was raised, Boyne reported his circumstances to a member of staff at a police station in south Wales.
A university spokesperson said: “Prof Boyne understood no further action would be taken. He has subsequently learned that South Wales police are now reviewing the circumstances in more detail and Prof Boyne is cooperating fully with their review.”
Finance ministers from across the devolved nations have come together to call for greater fiscal flexibility from the UK government to manage the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
For the first time, all three finance ministers – Scotland’s Kate Forbes, Rebecca Evans in Wales and Conor Murphy in Northern Ireland - today made co-ordinated statements in their respective legislatures. With the furlough scheme due to end later this month, they also called for greater involvement in the spending review to enable planning of budgets after the UK government ditched its planned autumn budget. And, as the row over the controversial internal market legislation continues, they also demanded an assurance that lost EU funding will be replaced in full and brought under the control of devolved administrations.
Forbes said:
Today the finance ministers of the devolved administrations are taking this unprecedented step to demonstrate the level of concern we share across the different nations of the UK, across different parties and across different legislatures. As representatives of our three nations, we are calling for the UK government to provide the clarity, certainty and flexibility we require. These calls must not go unanswered.
Turning back to what Boris Johnson said about reforming social care in his Conservative party conference speech (see 1.43pm), my colleague David Brindle points out that it was the economist Andrew Dilnot who used the “magic of averages” phrase in the summer when he urged Johnson to take inspiration from Winston Churchill and reform social care. Dilnot came up with his own plans in a government report nine years ago, but ministers have repeatedly postponed implementing them.
The Rutherglen Reformer has published a furious open letter to the rule-breaking MP Margaret Ferrier on the front page of tomorrow’s edition, calling for her to resign “before you become a social pariah and not just a political one”.
The Reformer says that it has been inundated with messages from disgusted readers since Ferrier admitted last week that she had travelled to London while awaiting the results of a coronavirus test and returned to Glasgow by train having tested positive.
It has since emerged that Ferrier also visited shops and businesses around the constituency and went to mass after developing coronavirus symptoms on Saturday September 26.
Here’s a look at this week’s Reformer where we call on Margaret Ferrier MP to resign. pic.twitter.com/ZV2yIuxe2G
— Rutherglen Reformer (@RutherglenRef) October 6, 2020
In Scotland there are now 262 patients in hospital with coronavirus. A week ago the figure was 123. The full figures are here.
Staff at Northumbria University in Newcastle, where 770 students have been forced to self-isolate since last week, are to hold a ballot on possible industrial action over “health and safety failings”.
An emergency online meeting of University and College Union members at Northumbria today unanimously backed a ballot as well as a call for the university’s vice-chancellor, Andrew Wathey, to resign immediately.
Staff are unhappy at Wathey’s insistence that Northumbria continues with in-person teaching, despite so many students having tested positive for Covid-19 since the start of term.
Northumbria’s UCU branch said it has asked the university to move learning online since the summer. It declared a formal dispute on 24 September after it said that management failed to address serious health and safety concerns. Newcastle is one of the worst affected areas in the UK with more than 1,200 new coronavirus cases over the last seven days.
Covid hospital numbers in England up by almost 200 to 2,783
Arguably the most interesting figures on the daily UK coronavirus dashboard are the hospital ones. The case numbers are determined partly by how much testing is taking place. Deaths are ultimately the most important measure, but they are a lagging indicator, and by the time they start going up very sharply, it is getting late to respond. Hospital figures give an earlier indication as to how much illness the virus is causing.
Here are the key figures from today’s dashboard.
- Hospital admissions in England are up sharply. On Sunday, the most recent day for which coronavirus admission figures are published, there were 478 - up from 386 the previous day.
- There are currently 2,783 coronavirus patients in hospital in England, up almost 200 from 2,593 yesterday. But this is still well below the numbers at the peak of the epidemic in the spring, when more than 15,000 people were in hospital in England being treated for coronavirus.
- There are currently 349 patients on mechanical ventilation, up from 331 yesterday.
Boris Johnson’s comments about expanding one-to-one tuition in schools in England beyond the government’s immediate catch-up programme (see 1.43pm) have been greeted with some scepticism by the National Education Union (NEU)
Kevin Courtney, NEU joint general secretary, said he hoped the National Tuition Programme (NTP) would help boost individual support for pupils, but warned that tutoring was not a magic solution. He said:
The ideological obsession with the private sector’s ability to deliver has been thoroughly tested during Covid and left wanting, and there is no reason to suppose the NTP will be any different.
Untested, rushed plans will always lead to dysfunction. What is presented as a magic solution for disadvantaged young people could result in less time being spent with qualified teachers.
Schools should instead receive this money direct and target that extra support as they see fit, based on their plans to re-engage students, rather than see it allocated for unqualified tutors.
Nick Brook, deputy general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, also raised concerns about the challenge of scaling up tutoring support. “It will not happen overnight. That doesn’t mean it’s not worth doing. The greatest challenge, as always, is ensuring that schools in the most deprived communities have equal access to high quality support, whilst having sufficient funds available to pay for it.”
Not unexpectedly, the Sutton Trust, which campaigns to improve social mobility through education and has been involved in helping set up the national tutoring programme, welcomed the prime minister’s support for more tutoring.
Sir Peter Lampl, chair and founder of the Sutton Trust, said:
I’m pleased that the prime minister also acknowledged that It is not just an approach that can support catch-up after this year’s school closures, but can and must be provided in the long term to address the stubborn gap in outcomes between poorer pupils and their peers.
Updated
Daily UK Covid cases continue to soar, rising by almost 2,000 to 14,542
The UK government has just updated its coronavirus dashboard. Here are the key figures.
- The UK has recorded 14,542 new coronavirus cases. That is almost 2,000 more than yesterday’s total (12,594), which was itself a record if you exclude the two figures at the weekend which were inflated by the inclusion of positive cases that had been overlooked because of a computer error. Daily recorded figures are now more than double what they were at their peak in the spring. However there are more than three times as many tests being carried out every day now than there were at the start of the May, when the official figures last peaked, and many, many times more than there were when the actual number of cases in the community last peaked, in March and early April. So the figures do not mean the prevalence of Covid is higher, or even similar, to what it was then.
- The UK has recorded 76 more deaths. This is also a big increase on yesterday’s total (19). It takes the headline UK total to 42,445. But this figure only covers people who died within 28 days of testing positive. If you include all deaths where coronavirus was confirmed or suspected, the true UK death toll is currently 58,101. (See 10.04am.)
Updated
Hundreds of Cambridge University students have opted into a weekly Covid-19 testing scheme designed to minimise the chance of outbreaks as term begins. As PA Media reports, tests will be delivered to Cambridge’s 31 colleges where students are living in households of between six and 10 people sharing kitchen and bathroom facilities. It is hoped that by testing on a pooled basis by household the university could effectively test 15,000 students in college accommodation with around 2,000 tests per week.
Everyone in a household would complete a nose and throat swab, with up to 10 swabs going into a single test tube for a single test. If the pooled swabs test positive for Covid-19, everyone in the household would be tested individually to establish who is positive.
Health officials are expecting Nottingham to be placed in lockdown after a surge in Covid-19 cases, PA Media reports. The city’s infection rate has soared, with 1,273 new cases recorded in the seven days to 2 October - the equivalent of 382.4 cases per 100,000 people. This is up from 59.5 per 100,000 in the seven days to 25 September.
The director of public health for Nottingham, Alison Challenger, said current restrictions in the city “are no longer enough to stop the spread of the virus”.
Updated
Two Royal Shakespeare Company (RSC) theatres will remain closed next year as a result of the pandemic. As PA Media reports, the RSC said it will focus its efforts on the Royal Shakespeare Theatre, its largest theatre in Stratford-upon-Avon, over the coming year as well as keeping the Swan Theatre and The Other Place closed in 2021, the RSC is beginning formal consultation with its workforce “as a result of the ongoing impact of Covid-19”.
Updated
Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, told Sky News that Matt Hancock, the health secretary, should be “considering his position” because of the policy failures at the Department of Health. That amounts to saying he should be resign.
But Sir Keir Starmer has refused to back that call. Asked if he agreed with Rayner that Hancock should go, Starmer told reporters:
I think Angela was probably expressing a frustration that is deeply felt across the country. What I want is for the government to concentrate on the job in hand and for Matt Hancock and others to get on and deliver what they are promising.
And the Department of Health in Northern Ireland has recorded 669 more cases, and one further death. The details are here.
This chart shows how the seven-day rolling average for positive tests in Northern Ireland has been rising sharply.
Public Health Wales has recorded 10 further coronavirus deaths and 425 new cases. The details are here.
The Roman Catholic church in Glasgow has expressed its “disappointment” after it was reported that the SNP MP Margaret Ferrier attended a church service and gave a reading to the congregation the day after she took a test for coronavirus, my colleagues Libby Brooks and Lisa O’Carroll report.
Covid helpline being set up for universities in England, minister tells MPs
The government is setting up a Covid helpline for universities and concerned students, similar to the one set up for schools in England, the universities minister Michelle Donelan has announced.
Giving evidence to MPs on the Commons education committee, Donelan said the helpline was being set up by the Department for Education and run in conjunction with Public Health England (PHE).
She was responding to concerns raised by Labour MP Fleur Anderson, whose Putney constituency in south London includes Roehampton university, where staff tried to report a positive case to local public health teams but were forced to hold the line for three hours. There was also no local testing facility nearby, she said.
Donelan acknowledged there may be delays and problems in some areas, adding: “This week we will be launching a new PHE line which we will be dedicating specifically to universities, akin to what we have done with schools.”
Asked if students could call, she said: “Students could ring it if they had concerns, if they were thinking things were not working as they should locally.”
On the question of fee refunds for students who feel they haven’t received the education they were promised, Donelan said there were established routes of complaint, but universities could offer discounts if they think they’re not providing an adequate service.
The children’s commissioner, Anne Longfield, was also giving evidence in her final appearance before the committee before stepping down after a six-year term. She called for a scaling-up of the government’s free lap top scheme to reach more children, and urged ministers to give the funds directly to schools to speed up the process and make sure the right children benefit.
Updated
NHS England has recorded 50 new coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here. A week ago today the equivalent figure was 44.
NHS England reported 50 more COVID-19 hospital deaths that occurred over the following 5 dates:
— UK COVID-19 (@UKCovid19Stats) October 6, 2020
7 = 5th October (1 day ago)
18 = 4th October (2 days ago)
15 = 3rd October (3 days ago)
8 = 2nd October (4 days ago)
2 = 1st October (5 days ago)
44 were reported last Tuesday. pic.twitter.com/YoSVxqAVrA
Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, came under fire at a parliamentary select committee today when the director of a museum suggested his department had stopped her from “acting with integrity” over the removal of a statue of a 17th-century slave trader.
Sonia Solicari, the director of the Museum of the Home, was speaking to the culture committee as part of a session on the controversy over monuments with links to Britain’s colonial past that erupted this summer. She was referring to a figure of Sir Robert Geffrye, after whom the museum was formerly named.
After Dowden sent a letter to museums warning them that the government “does not support the removal of statues or other similar objects” and hinting at a risk to public funding, the museum’s board decided against removing the statue of Geffrye. Solicari told the DCMS committee:
We did feel extremely compromised by that situation. The museum should ideally be free to act with integrity and to act in the best interest of beneficiaries. It’s highly unusual for the government to take such a strong view in a matter which would normally be a curatorial decision.
Updated
More than 1,500 schools in England not fully open because of Covid, DfE figures show
The number of state schools in England that had to partially close because of possible Covid-19 infections among pupils and staff rose again last week, according to the latest figures from the Department for Education.
While the proportion of pupils in attendance improved compared with the previous week, from 88% to 90%, the proportion of schools without significant numbers of pupils for coronavirus-related reasons continued to rise, from 6% to 7%, or more than 1,500 schools in total. The number of schools completely closed, mostly because of coronavirus outbreaks, remained unchanged at 0.2% or about 40 schools.
Geoff Barton, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said:
This is the second week of a downward trend in the number of fully open secondary schools, and means that since September 17 the number that are fully open has fallen by 10% from 92% to 82%. It reflects the extremely tough circumstances in which schools are operating due to the impact of Covid.
We remain concerned that schools lack the support from the government that they need in this challenging task.
Barton said the government “must redouble its efforts” to improve testing, and ensure that schoolsare given clear and consistent guidance.
The DfE said attendance increased among both fully open and partially open secondary schools. “This suggests that, where groups of pupils are being asked to self-isolate, they are becoming smaller. Overall, attendance in state-funded secondaries increased from approximately 84% to 86%,” it said.
Updated
Updated
The Welsh government is continuing to work on measures to stop people from travelling to Wales from Covid hotspots in England.
The first minister, Mark Drakeford, said measures could include bringing in the same sort of quarantine requirements that people arriving from hotspots overseas were obliged to follow.
He also raised the prospect of reintroducing the “stay local” rule that during the spring lockdown stopped people from England travelling widely in Wales.
During first minister’s questions, Drakeford once again criticised Boris Johnson for not bringing in rules in England to stop people travelling out of hotspots.
Drakeford wrote to the prime minister on Monday last week asking him to introduce such rules – but has still not had a reply. He said:
I think that is deeply disrespectful, not to me, but to the Senedd and to people here in Wales.
We have to prepare against the day where the prime minister continues to refuse to take this sensible course of action. We are actively exploring what we can do with the powers we hold.
Asked whether Wales may bring in “circuit-breaker” restrictions, Drakeford said: “We do give consideration to that.”
The latest estimate from the Welsh government’s technical advisory cell puts the R number at between 1.3 and 1.6.
But Drakeford pointed out that there was evidence that local lockdown restrictions did seem to be starting to work in some areas of Wales.
Updated
Boris Johnson's speech - Verdict from Twitter commentariat
Here are some tweets showing what political journalists and commentators are saying about Boris Johnson’s speech. “Underwhelmed” probably sums it up.
From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg
Pretty standard Johnson speech cocktail of after dinner style gags and his core political message right now that Covid misery makes him more, not less determined, to drive thro change he promised at the election
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 6, 2020
But this isn't a standard moment, and the absence of conference crowd who'd have cheered him through it was very pronounced - barely a mention of Brexit and not much acknowledgement that some of the damage of Covid, partic economic, is still to be felt
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 6, 2020
And given how govt has struggled to contain Covid and still is, not sure how convincing the promises of fixing everything from social care (still no plan) to transport, to housing, to green energy, to education, even to planting trees, really are
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) October 6, 2020
From Sky’s Beth Rigby
Johnson. Alphabet soup of a speech from PM. Flitting around vast policy areas & making huge promises (fixing housing mkt/social care/green rev). Setting out vision for post-Covid Britain to a public focused on recession & health crisis. A rallying speech but falling on deaf ears?
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) October 6, 2020
From the Times’ Steven Swinford
Boris Johnson strikes very different tone from Rishi Sunak on the role of state
— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) October 6, 2020
Sunak yesterday pledged that 'overwhelming might of the British state will be placed at your service'
Johnson says moment must come when 'state must stand back and let private sector get on with it'
From the BBC’s Faisal Islam
Government will have difficulty telling banking sector BOTH to extend mortgage holidays and forgiveness, and simultaneously lend into the riskiest part of the market at especially risky time. Especially without widespread guarantees...
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) October 6, 2020
If its 2 million people, & average size of a first time buyer mortgage is £185,300 - and market currently serving 75% LTV and below with cheap rates, but not 95% - back of the envelope, that’s several tens of billions of guarantees to cover possible losses...
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) October 6, 2020
From my colleague John Crace
Boris appears to have left out the bits on how badly govt has handled Coronavirus and Plans for Brexit
— John Crace (@JohnJCrace) October 6, 2020
From the Times’ Francis Elliott
That Johnson speech distilled: The New Jerusalem, a Taylor Wimpy project.
— Francis Elliott (@elliotttimes) October 6, 2020
From Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall
That speech was vintage Boris Johnson. Optimistic, forward looking, clearly designed to prove he still has élan. But critics will say that a general sense of progress, of whiggish boosterism doesn’t add up to a programme or philosophy. That as ever, his politics are elusive. https://t.co/FY3HUFtAB9
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) October 6, 2020
No-one doubts that the Johnson government has a lot of ambition. But the speech adverts to its potential weaknesses: that that ambition isn’t harnessed, that it’s underlying philosophy is unclear and that the detail to achieve those aims, is sketchy.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) October 6, 2020
For instance, to take some of the biggest domestic announcements in the speech, the focus on 1-1 teaching and (once again) a promise to deal with social care there was not a jot of detail to speak of.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) October 6, 2020
From my colleague Martin Kettle
Johnson's speech was a collection of his peculiar strengths and weaknesses. Those who only see his strengths will ignore the weaknesses. Those who only see his weaknesses will ignore his strengths.
— Martin Kettle (@martinkettle) October 6, 2020
From Times Radio’s Tom Newton Dunn
Far more than usual, this was a conference speech almost exclusively to his party and MPs rather than the country. The takeaway Johnson wants is in his final paragraph: it will get darker even than now, but stick with me, I have my mojo back, and I will lead you to brighter days. pic.twitter.com/JQa2c23KpO
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 6, 2020
From the Observer’s Sonia Sodha
The problem for Boris Johnson is he’s not going to get judged on this 30-year fantasy he’s painting but the real circumstances facing British families in 4 years’ time.
— Sonia Sodha (@soniasodha) October 6, 2020
From HuffPost’s Paul Waugh
Normally when a PM says "I can today announce" in a conference speech, they are announcing something new.
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) October 6, 2020
The pledge on more windpower was in the Tory manifesto and the Queen's Speech in December after the election.
From the Evening Standard’s Joe Murphy
Key phrase from PM - "Recovery will be led not by the state but by free enterprise"
— Joe Murphy (@JoeMurphyLondon) October 6, 2020
He's here starting a fight-back against Labour's argument that the NHS clap marked a culture shift towards the State
From my colleague Gaby Hinsliff
Sorry, but that just didn’t convince. Two huge elephants in the room (Brexit deal, covid handling failures) avoided in favour of some vaguely cheery references to stuff that was in the 2019 manifesto still happening, honest. #CPC2020
— gabyhinsliff (@gabyhinsliff) October 6, 2020
The trouble with that speech is I don’t want to have a picnic in a ‘wild belt’ in 2030, I want a test & trace system that works now
— gabyhinsliff (@gabyhinsliff) October 6, 2020
At the No 10 lobby briefing Downing Street said that 63% of people whose cases were not referred to NHS test and trace after they tested positive because of the data error have now been reached. Yesterday morning the figure was 51%. But, despite the catch-up effort starting on Saturday morning, a third of people who tested positive have not yet been reached.
This is from my colleague Heather Stewart.
Boris Johnson's spokesman says 63% of those (temporarily) lost covid cases have now been contacted, and their contacts traced.
— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather) October 6, 2020
Test and trace staff, "continue to work through the cases urgently".
Updated
Here is a sample of the Boris Johnson speech.
Updated
According to William James from Reuters, the Tories were not very forthcoming when asked to flesh out some of the comment Boris Johnson made in his speech at a subsequent briefing.
Following up policy announcements from Johnson's speech:
— William James (@WJames_Reuters) October 6, 2020
Care homes: You have the PM's words
One-to-one tuition: You have the PM's words
Mortgages: We'll update with more details, you have the PM's words.
Digital ID: Don't have anything beyond the speech
Updated
Simon Davis, president of the Law Society, which represents solicitors in England and Wales, has hit back at the prime minister’s denigration of “lefty lawyers” in his Conservative party conference speech. Davis said:
Repeated government attacks on the integrity of the legal profession are deeply concerning. This divisive language serves nobody and puts lawyers and their clients at risk.
All solicitors advise their clients on their rights under the laws created by parliament. Legal rights cannot be rewritten through rhetoric.
In his speech Johnson says the government was “stopping the whole criminal justice system from being hamstrung by what the home secretary would doubtless and rightly call the lefty human rights lawyers and other do-gooders”.
Johnson's Conservative conference speech - Summary and analysis
At some point Boris Johnson’s Conservative conference speech should appear on the party’s website. It’s not there yet, but here are the key points.
- Johnson said Britain should use the Covid crisis “as the time to learn and to improve on the world that went before”. See 12.21pm for details.
- He rejected claims that he was losing his mojo - and claimed that those who were saying otherwise were out to sabotage the government. He said:
I have read a lot of nonsense recently, about how my own bout of Covid has somehow robbed me of my mojo. And of course this is self-evident drivel, the kind of seditious propaganda that you would expect from people who don’t want this government to succeed, who wanted to stop us delivering Brexit and all our other manifesto pledges – and I can tell you that no power on Earth was and is going to do that – and I could refute these critics of my athletic abilities in any way they want: arm-wrestle, leg-wrestle, Cumberland wrestle, sprint-off, you name it.
But it is not just die-hard opponents of the government who have been complaining about Johnson losing focus. Many Tories, including Brexiters (ie, Johnson’s core supporters) have been saying the same thing. (For an in-depth account of the mood in the parliamentary party, try this long feature by Harry Lambert in the New Statesman.)
- Johnson insisted that life would one day return to normal. He said:
I can tell you that your government is working night and day to repel this virus, and we will succeed, just as this country has seen off every alien invader for the last thousand years ...
We will ensure that next time we meet it will be face to face and cheek by jowl, and we are working for the day when life will be back to normal, flying in a plane will be back to normal, and hairdressers will no longer look as though they are handling radioactive isotopes, and when we can go and see our loved ones in care homes, and when we no longer have to greet each other by touching elbows as in some giant national version of the Birdie dance.
In the UK and elsewhere in the world, politicians have been unsure as to whether to tell people that life will eventually return to normal, or whether to warn that some Covid-related restrictions or precautions will become permanent. As this passage shows, Johnson leans to the former view.
- Johnson said he would use the “magic of averages” to fix the adult social care funding crisis. He said:
We will fix the injustice of care home funding, bringing the magic of averages to the rescue of millions.
“Magic of averages” is a quote from Winston Churchill and it refers to how insurance, by spreading risk, can make it possible for people to obtain protection against the prospect of an unlikely but prohibitively expensive adversity. Churchill seems to have first used the phrase in relation to national insurance. The government has considered an insurance model for funding social care, but national insurance is effectively a tax, the tax system also pools risk, and so Johnson may be referring to something more akin to a social care tax.
- Johnson claimed that a plan to allow people to buy homes with a 5% deposit could created 2 million more homeowners. The proposal was in the Tory manifesto and announced again at the weekend. It would lead to “the biggest expansion of home ownership since the 1980s”, he said.
- He said he wanted to extend the use of one-to-one tuition in schools. He said:
I want to take further an idea that we have tried in the pandemic, and explore the value of one-to-one teaching, both for pupils who are in danger of falling behind, and for those who are of exceptional abilities.
We can all see the difficulties, but I believe such intensive teaching could be transformational, and of massive reassurance to parents.
- He offered his vision of Britain in 2030. He said:
I want to raise your eyes, and I want you to imagine that you are arriving in Britain in 2030, when I hope that much of the programme I have outlined will be delivered, and you arrive in your zero carbon jet made in the UK and you flash your Brexit blue passport or your digital ID, you get an ev digital taxi.
And as you travel around you see a country that has been and is being transformed for the better – where young people in their 20s and 30s have the joy of home ownership, and where they can bring up their children in the neighbourhoods where they grew up themselves, in the confidence that the schools are excellent and that crime is down.
And instead of being dragged on big commutes to the city, they can start a business in their home town, a place that has not only superb transport connections and green buses, but gigabit broadband, and where the workforce is abundantly equipped not just with university degrees but with the technical skills that the new economy demands.
- He accused Labour of wanting to re-write Britain’s history. He said:
We are proud of this country’s culture and history and traditions; [Labour] literally want to pull statues down, to re-write the history of our country, to edit our national CV to make it look more politically correct.
He also accused Labour of believing that “everything can be funded by Uncle Sugar, the taxpayer”, of disliking home ownership and of not backing legislation to protect veterans from vexatious litigation. Apart from a reference to “Captain Hindsight and his regiment of pot-shot, snipeshot fusiliers”, he did not say anything directly about Sir Keir Starmer. (Starmer, of course, said it was “completely wrong” for protesters in Bristol to pull down the statue of Eda
Updated
This is from Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, on Boris Johnson’s speech.
The British people needed to hear the prime minister set out how he and his government will get a grip of the crisis. Instead we got the usual bluster and no plan for the months ahead.
We end this Conservative conference as we started it: with a shambolic testing system, millions of jobs at risk and an incompetent government that has lost control of this virus and is holding Britain back.
Nicola Sturgeon has moved to reassure the Scottish public that there will not be a full October lockdown, following intense speculation about the details of proposed “circuit breaker” restrictions, saying at her daily briefing that she wants to be as “open and frank as possible” and be clear about what her government is not proposing to do.
Sturgeon said:
We are not proposing another lockdown at this stage. We’re not going to be asking you to stay inside your homes in the way we did back in March ... We are not about to impose travel restrictions on the whole of the country, we are not going to shut down the economy ... or stop the remobilisation of the NHS.
She added that schools would not be closed either partially or wholly.
However, she added that additional targeted steps to stem the spread of the virus – which is particularly pronounced in the central belt – are still being considered. The cabinet will meet again tomorrow, followed by a parliamentary statement on any further restrictions in the afternoon.
With a further 800 people testing positive for Covid-19, 262 patients in hospital with a confirmed case (up 44), and a further two deaths, Sturgeon said that the government was receiving “very strong public health advice that action over and above the current restrictions is necessary”.
Updated
Sturgeon rules out another lockdown in Scotland - but further measures to be announced tomorrow
In Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is giving her coronvirus briefing now.
She said the Scottish cabinet discussed further restrictions this morning, but did not take any final decisions. She said there would be another meeting tomorrow, and she would then make a statement to the Scottish parliament about any new rules.
But she said she could say what would not be happening. There will not be another lockdown in Scotland, she said. She also ruled out imposing travel restrictions or closing schools.
Updated
Johnson says Covid can provide chance to 'learn and improve' as he sets out vision for 2030
Boris Johnson’s speech was light on policy but heavy on vision - although it was not a particularly novel vision, and the passages about private enterprise being the foundation for prosperity were very similar to the speeches he’s been making at Conservative conferences for years.
One of the most interesting passages, though, came when he spoke about his desire to use the coronavirus crisis as a catalyst for change. He said:
We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.
They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.
We see these moments as the time to learn and to improve on the world that went before.
That is why this government will build back better.
And, in this context, he identified Churchill’s wartime coalition government as a model. He said:
In the depths of the second world war, when just about everything had gone wrong, the government sketched out a vision of the postwar new Jerusalem that they wanted to build, and that is what we’re doing now, in the teeth of this pandemic.
We are resolving not to go back to 2019, but to do better: to reform our system of government, to renew our infrastructure; to spread opportunity more widely and fairly and to create the conditions for a dynamic recovery that is led not by the state but by free enterprise.
(But at this point in his speech Johnson did not find time apologise to the Labour MP Kate Green. For the last two weeks at PMQs he has criticised her for saying, in relation to Covid, that you should never let a good crisis go to waste, but her argument was very similar to the one he was making today.)
I will post a full summary when the full text is available.
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Johnson says he believes in a global Britain.
His party believes in British values, he says. Labour won’t even vote to protect the armed forces for vexatious complaints, he says.
He asks people to imagine what the country might be like in 2030: zero-carbon jets, blue passports, more home ownership, green transport, better broadband, 40 new hospitals, a healthier population, a more united, cosmopolitan Britain.
That is the future they can build, he says.
And that’s it.
Reaction, analysis and a summary coming up soon.
Johnson attacks “separatists” and says his party wants to keep the union together.
Johnson turns to culture. He says the Tories are proud of this country, while Labour want to pull statues down. The Tories aren’t embarrassed about songs like Rule, Britannia!, he says.
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Johnson says home ownership marks the difference between Labour and the Tories. The Tories want to promote it. Labour don’t, he claims, even though their politicians have large homes in north London.
Johnson says people want to be able to buy a home.
But levels of owner occupation have plummeted for the under-40s.
People are living in homes they cannot love, because they don’t own them. In some cases they cannot hang a picture, he says.
He says the government wants to reform the planning system.
It wants to create 2 million more homeowners - the biggest expansion of home ownership since the 1980s.
He says he will turn “generation rent” into “generation buy”.
He says the government wants to allow people to buy homes with only a 5% deposit. That will make the difference, he claims.
This was the plan Johnson trailed at the weekend.
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Johnson says Labour believes everything can be provided by “Uncle Sugar”, the taxpayer.
But it is the private sector that provides the nation’s wealth, he says.
He says Rishi Sunak has done things that no Conservative chancellor would want to do.
And he says the government has had to curtail liberties in ways it would never normally want to.
Johnson says he wants a high-skills, low crime economy.
If he had an audience, he would be eliciting cheers, at this point, he says.
Johnson is now on the passage criticising his own previous comments on this. (See 9.49am.)
Johnson says the UK can be the Saudi Arabia of wind.
As Saudi Arabia is to oil, the UK is to wind – a place of almost limitless resource, but in the case of wind without the carbon emissions and without the damage to the environment.
Johnson is now on the passage briefed in advance about wind power.
Johnson says adult education is an example of how the crisis is leading to change.
In his speech last week, he announced that further education would get access to the higher education funding model.
Johnson says he wants to spread use of one-to-one tuition in schools
Johnson turns to education, and says he wants to spread the use of one-to-one teaching.
It is in crises like these that new approaches are born, he says.
Johnson hints he may use insurance model to reform adult social care funding
Johnson says he wants to raise the trend rate of growth and productivity.
The bedrock of that will be the health service, he says.
He says the plan is under way to build 40 more hospitals.
He will address the problem of care home funding, using the “magic of averages” to provide security to millions.
That phrase, “magic of averages”, implies he wants some sort of insurance model.
- Johnson hints that he may use insurance model to reform adult social care funding.
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Johnson says the UK economy had some chronic problems: not enough skills, poor quality infrastructure, not enough homes.
So going back to what we had before is not good enough, he says.
He says during the second world war the government looked ahead to a brighter future. That is what he wants to do now.
And it should be led by private enterprise, not the state, he says.
Johnson says people claim he is still unwell after getting Covid.
That is not true. It is what you would expect from people who don’t want the government to succeed, he says.
But he says he was too fat. He has now lost weight.
Johnson says Covid crisis can be opportunity to 'learn and improve'
Johnson says he knows the country will defeat this virus because he has seen what happened before.
But it isn’t enough after this just to go back to normal, he says.
We have been through too much, he says.
He says events like this don’t just come and go. They are a trigger for economic and social change.
They should be an opportunity to “learn and improve”, he says.
Johnson tells Tories next autumn they will hold their conference in person
Johnson says he was meant to be speaking in Birmingham. But now he is speaking without an audience, he says.
He says he has had enough of this disease.
The government is working night and day repel the virus, he says.
The next time they meet, it will be face to face, he says.
Johnson starts by thanking party members for what they did at the election “to save this country from socialism”.
The video features Johnson talking about the need to “build back better”.
Boris Johnson's Tory conference speech
Boris Johnson is about to deliver his speech to the online Conservative conference.
A warm-up video is being shown now to people watching online through the party’s website.
In evidence to the Commons Treasury committee this morning Kate Nicholls, head of the trade body UKHospitality, said the government needed to do more to support jobs in her sector. She said:
In hospitality, the question is going from whether we are endangering jobs to are we endangering the businesses who will employ people further down the line?
There is a very real danger that we will lose large chunks of the economy - in hospitality we will have insolvent businesses, businesses going into administration and therefore that engine of growth for re-employing people will be lost for good
I think that’s what we need to be focusing on to make sure we support viable jobs for the future. In our sector, those on full-time and part-time furlough are in viable jobs.
Here is some more reaction to the announcement from Boris Johnson about wind power briefed overnight.
From Jonathan Bartley, the Green party co-leader
Wind power announcement:
— Jonathan Bartley (@jon_bartley) October 6, 2020
- Good to see the Prime Minister’s conversion
- We need the detail of how it will be funded
- It still falls far short of what is urgently needed and what could be achieved.https://t.co/GVeWdgM3cy
From Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader and energy secretary in the coalition government
Delighted I ignored @BorisJohnson in 2013 when he said:
— Ed Davey MP 🔶🇪🇺 (@EdwardJDavey) October 5, 2020
“Wind farms couldn't pull the skin off a rice pudding”
Under my policies, @LibDems made the UK the world leader in offshore wind.
Regrettably, the new Tory plans aren’t nearly ambitious enough.https://t.co/IxksVKFYIl
From the environmentalist and Guardian columnist George Monbiot
Boris Johnson's claim that 40GW of offshore wind capacity could power "every home in the country" is both literally correct and a clever distraction. Domestic electricity consumption is only one third of total electricity demand (104 / 346 TWh)https://t.co/0iy9e174lo
— George Monbiot (@GeorgeMonbiot) October 6, 2020
As the government wants all new cars to be electric by 2030, and as we switch from oil and gas combustion to electricity for our space and water heating, 40GW of offshore wind looks even less like the panacea Johnson suggests.
— George Monbiot (@GeorgeMonbiot) October 6, 2020
It's important, but just part of the picture.
From the Green MP Caroline Lucas
Good to hear PM restate commitment to 40GW of offshore wind - always happy to welcome a convert!
— Caroline Lucas (@CarolineLucas) October 6, 2020
Now we need to scale up rapidly
- domestic electricity only one third of total electricity demand
- as we electrify transport & heating, we’ll need much more
https://t.co/Yx13AWSUJW
Here is another epidemiologist with a sobering assessment of the current situation. These are from Adam Kucharski at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
If COVID cases/hospitalisations/deaths are rising - as they are in many European countries - there are only two ways the trend will reverse.... 1/
— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) October 6, 2020
A. Enough change in control measures and/or behaviour to push R below 1. The extent of restrictions required will depend on population structure/household composition etc. But given existing measures are disruptive and R is above 1, could take a lot of effort to get R down. 2/
— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) October 6, 2020
B. Accumulation of sufficient immunity to push R below 1. However, evidence from Spain (e.g. https://t.co/kEfelVIKWO) suggests ICUs will start hitting capacity before this point, so to avoid them being overwhelmed, would likely end up cycling between epidemics and (A) above. 3/3
— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) October 6, 2020
The number of deaths related to Covid-19 in England and Wales increased by 48% in the week to 25 September, according to today’s ONS report. (See 10.04am.)
There were 234 coronavirus deaths registered, an increase of 76 from the previous week. This is the third consecutive week where deaths have increased, and appears to show the knock-on effect of the widespread rise in cases throughout England and Wales.
The north-west reported 58 Covid deaths, the highest of any region. The number of deaths involving Covid-19 increased in eight of the nine English regions, while the east of England and London were the only English regions to have lower overall deaths than the five-year average.
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that, although the proportion of Covid deaths stood at just 2% of all deaths, that the latest data confirms that Covid deaths in the UK were doubling around every two weeks in September.
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In the Commons yesterday, when Matt Hancock, the health secretary, was asked if Kate Bingham, the head of the government’s vaccine taskforce, was right when she told the Financial Times that any coronavirus vaccine would only go to half the population, he sidestepped the question - saying he would be guided on this by the joint committee on vaccinations and immunisations (JCVI).
Well, Prof Adam Finn from the University of Bristol, who is a member of the JCVI, was on the Today programme this morning and he said people should not assume that vaccines would provide an immediate solution. He explained:
People should not imagine that there’s going to be a sudden and complete solution. These early vaccines I hope will work to some extent, but there are lots of different vaccines, and they will not all work equally effectively. So it’s going to be a long drawn-out process getting this right.
Finn also said the “obvious people to target for the vaccines, at least at the outset, will be the people that who are at highest risk of getting sick and dying, and that’s really the elderly and alongside them those that care for them”.
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Ed Miliband, the shadow business secretary and a former energy secretary, has described the funding being announced today by Boris Johnson for his wind energy pledge as “a drop in the ocean”. Miliband said:
Nothing in the prime minister’s re-announcement today on wind energy targets will tackle the immediate jobs crisis our country faces. We need ambition on renewable energy, but Boris Johnson rarely delivers on his rhetoric.
The funding announced today spread over ten years is a drop in the ocean, and pales in comparison to the investment by France and Germany in green jobs.
The overnight briefing on Johnson’s speech says that “£160m will be made available to upgrade ports and infrastructure across communities like in Teesside and Humber in northern England, Scotland and Wales to hugely increase our offshore wind capacity”. But it also says that further details will be set out in a “10-point plan for a green industrial revolution” being announced later this year.
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In an interview with the Today programme this morning Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, the epidemiologist whose modelling was decisive in persuading the government to launch the first lockdown, said further restrictions could be needed.
He said that although hospital admissions and deaths were currently low, the virus was spreading and, unless it was contained, there was a risk of the NHS being overwhelmed. He said:
Admissions to hospital, hospital beds occupied with Covid patients and deaths are all tracking cases, they are at a low level but they are basically doubling every two weeks and we just cannot have that continue indefinitely, the NHS will be overwhelmed again.
Ferguson said that with schools and universities open ways needed to be found to reduce contacts in other areas, such as an “extended half term” or closing hospitality venues.
So we are in a more difficult position, if we want to keep schools open we have to reduce contacts in other areas of society by more.
You will have heard measures being discussed across society as a whole such as extended half terms where we try to reduce transmission for a concerted period.
I think those measures should be considered.
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UK has more than 58,000 deaths linked to Covid, latest figures show
According to PA Media, the latest ONS figures (see 9.57am) mean more than 58,000 deaths involving Covid-19 have now been registered in the UK.
The ONS figures show that 52,943 deaths involving Covid-19 had occurred in England and Wales up to 25 September, and had been registered by 3 October.
Figures published last week by the National Records for Scotland showed that 4,257 deaths involving Covid-19 had been registered in Scotland up to 27 September, while 901 deaths had occurred in Northern Ireland up to 25 September (and had been registered up to 30 September), according to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.
Together, these figures mean that so far 58,101 deaths have been registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, including suspected cases.
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The number of deaths involving Covid-19 registered in England and Wales has risen for the third week in a row, according to the latest weekly report from the Office for National Statistics. A total of 215 deaths registered in the week ending 25 September mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate. This is up from 139 deaths in the week to 18 September, 99 deaths in the week to 11 September , and 78 deaths in the week to 4 September.
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Johnson admits he was wrong about wind power in the past (although he fudges the dates)
As mentioned earlier, Boris Johnson will use his speech to the Conservative party conference to promise to power every home in the UK with offshore wind energy within a decade. According to extracts from the speech released in advance, he will also include this line about people who used to be sceptical about wind power in the past.
I remember how some people used to sneer at wind power, twenty years ago, and say that it wouldn’t pull the skin off a rice pudding. They forgot the history of this country. It was offshore wind that puffed the sails of Drake and Raleigh and Nelson, and propelled this country to commercial greatness.
Although not obvious, this is a self-deprecating joke, and a rare admission from Johnson that he got something wrong. That’s because he was the person who used that jibe about wind power. “Labour put in a load of wind farms that failed to pull the skin off a rice pudding,” he once said, in an interview making the case for shale gas.
But despite being a tacit admission of error, Johnson is still being disingenuous. It wasn’t 20 years ago when he made this comment; it was in 2013.
Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has defended the 10pm early closing time for pubs and restaurants amid criticism from Tory backbenchers, arguing it is “better than having places closed”.
Downing Street is facing pressure from Conservative MPs over the policy, which it is claimed is not backed by evidence, with some set to rebel. But Sunak told BBC Breakfast:
The curfew was something we were told by our advisers could well make a difference to the spread of the transmission. We know social contact is how the virus spreads.
In common with many other countries around the world this is thought to be something that can help suppress the spread of the virus. We are not an outlier in having a curfew.
As a tool we have at our disposal to try and suppress the spread of the virus, it is one that is advised across the board can make a difference.
What I would say is it is better than having places closed.
Separately, Sunak hinted at debate within cabinet over how far Covid-19 restrictions should go. He told Radio 4’s Today programme:
I am responsible for the economy. If you look around the table it would be odd if the education secretary wasn’t the person talking about the impact on children’s education, if the health secretary wasn’t the person talking about the NHS, if the culture secretary wasn’t talking about the impact on the theatres and performing arts and sports industries, if I wasn’t talking about the broader impact on the economy and people’s jobs.
A cabinet is not a collection of robots. A cabinet is a collection of people who are going to come, debate the issues. These are really difficult judgments. There is no precise way to come to a mathematically correct answer.
On BBC Radio Scotland today, Prof Linda Bauld, the Bruce and John Usher chair of public health at the University of Edinburgh, said that she expected Nicola Sturgeon and her advisers would be considering a travel ban and hospitality closures while the focus continued to be on preventing households mixing indoors.
But there has been growing opposition criticism about the way that restrictions about being brought in. Richard Leonard, the Scottish Labour leader, said parliament should be consulted before announcements on more restrictions. “Holyrood is currently being treated as an afterthought, in the same fashion that Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings treat Westminster, and that must change,” he said.
There has been a sharp increase in the number of people in hospital being treated for the virus over recent weeks, with 218 currently in hospital and 22 in intensive care, and a further 697 cases of coronavirus were reported in Scotland on Monday, with 12.8% of people newly tested returning a positive result.
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Boris Johnson to deliver conference speech as Scotland considers tightening rules
Good morning. Boris Johnson is giving his speech to the Conservative party’s online conference today and overnight it has been briefed that he will promise to power every home in the UK with offshore wind energy within a decade. Our story about his pledge is here.
But Johnson will find it hard to get the public to focus on an agenda beyond Covid when case numbers are going up so quickly and, in a foretaste of what might be seeing soon, the Scottish cabinet is meeting today to discuss tightening Scotland’s rules (which are already tougher than England’s). As my colleague Libby Brooks reports, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, and her colleagues will discuss “short, sharp shock” restrictions.
Libby writes:
The cabinet will consider evidence that two weeks of heightened restrictions could buy time as the NHS prepares for winter.
While insisting that the proposals do not constitute a full lockdown, national clinical director Jason Leitch told BBC Scotland that a circuit breaker could push the course of the pandemic back by 28 days.
This morning the Scottish Sun is reporting that medics have been told to expect the restrictions to come into place on Friday evening.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: The ONS publishes its weekly death figures for England and Wales.
9.30am: The CBI, the TUC and the IoD give evidence to the Commons Treasury committee about the impact of coronavirus.
11.15am: Michelle Donelan, the universities minister, gives evidence to the Commons education committee.
11.30am: Boris Johnson gives his speech to the Conservative party’s online conference.
11.30am: Matt Hancock, the health secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
11.30am: The all-party parliamentary group on Covid takes evidence from experts on the impact of coronavirus on frontline care, and on test and trace.
12.15pm: The Scottish government is expected to hold its coronavirus briefing.
12.30pm: A Treasury minister responds to a Commons urgent question on economic support for areas in lockdown.
1.30pm: Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, takes questions in the Senedd.
Late afternoon: MPs debate and vote on the regulations enforcing the rule of six.
Politics Live has been doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog for some time and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, including of course Johnson’s speech, and where they seem more important and interesting, they will take precedence.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
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