That’s it from the UK coronavirus blog team today. You can continue to follow our coverage in the global coronavirus blog here –
A summary of today's developments
- Boris Johnson is planning reviving his “Operation Moonshot” plan - the proposal for the mass roll-out of rapid Covid tests, that could allow people to return to some sort of normality and lessen the need for social distancing. Johnson said some of these new tests were “highly effective”. He said the government would be distributing and trialling tests in the next few weeks.
- The prime minister also said tier 3 areas will get priority as rapid-result tests are rolled out. The government has started to build the capacity to manufacture them and will be trialled more in the next few weeks.
- The UK has recorded 15,650 new cases, the lowest daily figure since Monday. There have also been 136 more deaths, the lowest daily figure since Monday (50).
- Johnson said he has not reached agreement with Greater Manchester yet and he “completely understands” why Andy Burnham, the mayor, is reluctant to agree to further restrictions.
- Nicola Sturgeon and police have urged football fans not to flout lockdown measures this weekend to watch the first Celtic v Rangers derby of the season. The Glasgow clubs will play behind closed doors at Celtic Park on Saturday due to Covid-19 restrictions.
- An urgent circuit-breaker which would see secondary schools and colleges in England closed for two weeks at half-term is urgently needed to suppress Covid-19 cases, The National Education Union (NEU) said.
- Keir Starmer has undertaken a mini-reshuffle of his front bench team after some junior shadow ministers resigned on Thursday over Labour’s failure to oppose legislation allowing MI5 and police informants to commit crimes. Among these were Dan Carden, the shadow financial secretary to the Treasury, and Margaret Greenwood, the shadow schools spokesperson.
- West Midlands Mayor Andy Street said he would “not stand in the way” of tougher Covid-19 restrictions but would demand economic support in advance.
Nicola Sturgeon and police have urged football fans not to flout lockdown measures this weekend to watch the first Celtic v Rangers derby of the season.
The Glasgow clubs will play behind closed doors at Celtic Park on Saturday due to Covid-19 restrictions.
With pubs in Scotland’s central belt closed under temporary measures, there have been reports of some supporters planning to travel to Blackpool to watch the game in bars.
Sturgeon has previously warned against travelling to the seaside resort and the latest intervention from Lancashire Police comes as the county prepares to enter the highest level of lockdown restrictions for England.
Speaking during the Scottish Government’s coronavirus briefing on Friday, the First Minister asked supporters not to gather outside the stadium or in other people’s homes.
Sturgeon also told fans not to travel to other parts of Scotland or to areas in England where such restrictions are not in force.
She made the appeal as she announced nine more deaths of coronavirus patients have been recorded in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of fatalities to 2,594.
A total of 1,196 people have tested positive for coronavirus over the same time period, while the number of people being admitted to hospital with the virus continues to grow.
Sturgeon said: “I’m afraid that watching football, no matter how essential it might feel to some, does not fall into that essential category.
“Nobody likes the fact that these restrictions have to be in place but they are vital to protecting all of us and keeping us safe.”
West Midlands Mayor Andy Street said he would “not stand in the way” of tougher Covid-19 restrictions but would demand economic support in advance.
As the region’s Labour police and crime commissioner, David Jamieson said he believed consideration of a future “circuit-breaker” lockdown was almost inevitable, the area’s Conservative mayor Street said extra economic support should be “pre-ordained”.
Street told a weekly West Midlands Combined Authority webinar meeting that he would liaise with other regional leaders if restrictions are tightened.
The former John Lewis managing director said: “If we suddenly found ourselves in a position where we needed to move into higher restrictions, firstly it wouldn’t just be me, I would want to do it with all of our local authority leaders and of course taking the wider leadership of the region with us.
“And if we are at that high level of infection, I think it is very important that we do not deny the health reality.
“We would need to move... and I would not want to stand in the way of tougher health restrictions.”
The leader of Birmingham City Council, Councillor Ian Ward, said he envisaged that the city’s Tier 2 status would be reviewed after 14 days.
I would envisage that next week we will begin a dialogue with the Government based on the data here in the West Midlands and the position we find ourselves in.
“Whether the data is then telling us we should be moving up to Tier 3, or whether it will be better to have a circuit-breaker, I will wait until next week.
“But we’ll look very closely at the data because the health impact of the virus and keeping people safe, and avoiding any unnecessary deaths, has to be our number one priority.
“We’d also expect an economic support package to come in behind wherever we find ourselves after that 14-day review.
“I just don’t think we can carry on in a situation where there is no financial support for the hospitality sector here in the West Midlands under the current restrictions.”
From the Guardian’s Brexit correspondent Lisa O’Carroll:
NEW: No 10: Frost has spoken to Barnier and told him there is no reason to come to London for talks on Monday unless "fundamental changes"
— lisa o'carroll (@lisaocarroll) October 16, 2020
"There was accordingly no basis for negotiations in London as of Monday.
"He and Michel Barnier agreed to talk again early next week"
An urgent circuit-breaker which would see secondary schools and colleges in England closed for two weeks at half-term is urgently needed to suppress Covid-19 cases, Britain’s largest teachers’ union has said.
The National Education Union (NEU) said such a move could allow the Government to “get in control of the test, track and trace system and get cases lower, to allow the system to work better”.
The call comes after new data from the ONS showed there was an estimated average of 27,900 new cases per day of Covid-19 between October 2 and 8.
Secondary schools and colleges should shut for two weeks, rather than one, over the October half-term to halt the spread of coronavirus, the NEU says.
Kevin Courtney, joint general secretary of the union, said: “Heads, teachers and school staff understand the educational impact of this, but we also understand that in exponential epidemics early action is essential.
“Taking action now can avoid more disruption later.”
On Friday, figures from the ONS showed that the highest rates of infection in England continue to be among young adults and secondary school pupils.
Keir Starmer has undertaken a mini-reshuffle of his front bench team after some junior shadow ministers resigned on Thursday over Labour’s failure to oppose legislation allowing MI5 and police informants to commit crimes.
Among these were Dan Carden, the shadow financial secretary to the Treasury, and Margaret Greenwood, the shadow schools spokesperson. Both were among relatively few MPs from the left of Labour still on the front bench.
A Labour statement said Carden would be replaced by James Murray, with Wes Streeting taking over from Greenwood. Both had front bench jobs before. Abena Oppong-Asare will take over Streeting’s former shadow Treasury role.
More junior roles will be filled in the coming days.
More details on the Moonshot plan following Boris Johnson’s press conference.
Further pilots of new testing technologies will begin from next week, with repeat testing of priority groups to identify those most at risk of spreading the virus and break chains of transmission.
The Prime Minister confirmed pilots will take place across some of the worst affected regions, including the North West, North East and Yorkshire.
Hospitals in Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds, Newcastle, Basingstoke and Southampton will test asymptomatic NHS staff, whilst new “lateral flow tests” - swab tests that do not require a lab for processing - will be sent to adult social care settings, schools and universities in the hardest hit areas.
These “lateral flow tests” can turnaround results within an hour without the need for a lab.
The Prime Minister also confirmed that Liverpool, Lancashire, and any other areas which enter the Very High alert level will be immediately prioritised for these tests.
The government will also make tests available to local Directors of Public Health to help control localised outbreaks - handing more control from London to all parts of the country so those on the ground can use the tests as they think best.
The pilots will see individuals tested weekly as a minimum.
Positive results from tests on asymptomatic NHS staff will be collected by NHS Test and Trace, and published as part of the daily case numbers. Contact tracing will take place as usual, and the requirement to self-isolate applies.
Positive results from “lateral flow tests” will trigger a further PCR test to confirm the result, as the technology is still in the early stages of development.
Universities are facing growing pressure to move lessons online amid thousands of Covid-19 cases on campuses across the UK.
The University and College Union (UCU) has launched a new petition demanding that the government switches university classes from face-to-face to online immediately “where possible”.
It comes after figures, which were collated by the union over the past few weeks, suggest there have been more than 20,000 coronavirus cases at higher education providers since the start of term.
The union, which represents university and college staff, is calling on the government to provide more funding to protect students and staff from the financial and mental health impact of the pandemic.
Jo Grady, general secretary of the UCU, said: “We have now seen over 20,000 cases of Covid at universities since the start of term.
But even as much of the UK is moving into stricter measures to contain the pandemic, in-person activities are continuing on campus causing infections to rise.
“We repeatedly warned that the mass migration of students around the country would cause a public health disaster but our pleas fell on deaf ears.”
It comes after a Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) document, dated September 21, suggested moving all college and university teaching online unless face-to-face teaching was “essential”.
But addressing the Commons on Monday, universities minister Michelle Donelan said the Government did not believe it would be right to put the lives and “the academic journeys of students on hold”.
Three universities in Liverpool, which has been placed in Tier 3, have already halted most of their in-person classes amid a rise in coronavirus cases.
Other universities teaching the majority of classes online include Northumbria, Newcastle, Sheffield, Manchester and Manchester Metropolitan where cases on campus were high.
But a number of institutions, including Durham University where 958 students have tested positive for coronavirus in the past week, are continuing a blended approach of face-to-face and online lessons.
A Department for Education (DfE) spokeswoman said: “We understand this has been a very difficult time for students and staff, and it is crucial for students’ wellbeing and education to be able to go to university and carry on with their lives, which is why we have supported universities to provide a blend of online and in-person learning in a Covid-secure way this term.
“Universities are prepared for local outbreaks and we have worked with them to help draw up plans for measures in the event of positive cases on campus, or a rise in cases locally.
“Universities are also working closely with local authorities and public health officials to monitor cases, and a number of universities have increased their online teaching in response to local outbreaks.”
Johnson revives 'Operation Moonshot' plan - but stresses it will 'take time'
Boris Johnson’s press conference was dominated by questions about Breixt and the coronavirus restrictions, but he did not say anything substantially new on either.
But the press conference was interesting because Johnson devoted a passage of his speech to reviving his “Operation Moonshot” plan - the proposal for the mass roll-out of rapid Covid tests, that could allow people to return to some sort of normality (because that would lessen the need for social distancing).
Johnson said some of these new tests were “highly effective”. He said the government would be distributing and trialling tests in the next few weeks.
It’s becoming clear over the past few weeks that some of these new tests are highly effective and can help us save lives and jobs over winter.
We have already bought millions of these tests, some of which are very simple – meaning you simply need to wipe the swab inside your mouth – and can give a result as quickly as in 15 minutes. Some of these fast tests work with saliva and we are already using these in hospitals.
We have started building the infrastructure for domestic manufacture of these tests, ensuring that Britain has the ability to produce millions of fast tests here.
Over the next few weeks we will start distributing and trialling these tests across the country. This will enable us to do quick turnaround tests on NHS and care home staff much more frequently.
By testing more frequently and quickly than ever before, we can hope we can help prevent the virus entering and spreading through care homes.And we will be able to test students in universities with outbreaks, as well as children in schools, helping us to keep education open safely through the winter.
And we will make tests available to local directors of public health to help control localised outbreaks - handing more control from London to all parts of our country so that those on the ground can use the tools we give them as they think best.
This is not the first time the roll-out of these tests has been announced. Here is the press release from when government announced from early September.
But today Johnson tied the release of these tests to regions going into tier 3. He said:
I have instructed my team to ensure that Liverpool city region, Lancashire, and any other areas which enter into the very high alert level are immediately prioritised for those tests.
This will make a big difference in how we protect people from this disease.
But he also stressed the mass testing idea (about which government scientists are sceptical) would not provide an early solution. He said:
It’s vital that we all take a cautious approach to this new technology.
First, it will take time to develop this plan. No country in the world is regularly testing millions of people, so we need to take the time to establish how to do this effectively and safely, and to build the logistics and distribution operation necessary for a large-scale operation across the country.
Second, we won’t be able to use testing to get business back to normal quickly. In time, we want to use tests to open, and keep open, more parts of the economy that have sadly been closed. But it is crucial that we make sure such systems work safely and I must level with you that it will take time to get this right before many organisations can buy and operate these tests themselves.
That’s all from me for today.
My colleague Nadeem Badshah is taking over now.
In an interview with Sky News Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker and MP for Chorley in Lancashire, has said he is not happy about the compensation available to people who cannot work because their business has to shut because of the restrictions. He said their furlough payments should be worth 80% of wages, not the 67% currently on offer.
It is unusual for the Commons Speaker to speak out publicly on a matter of party political controversy. Hoyle was a Labour MP before becoming Speaker and his call for furlough payments to be more generous echoes Labour’s position.
Speaker (and Chorley MP) @LindsayHoyle_MP live on @SkyNews after Lancashire put under Tier 3 rules. Tells @inzyrashid:
— Joe Pike (@joepike) October 16, 2020
-'Disappointed'.
-The town 'could have remained in Tier 2'.
-Wants 80% financial support not 67% offered.
-Won't enter into debate about GM.
Weekly UK Covid death toll up by more than 80% to 750, latest figures show
The UK government has updated its coronavirus dashboard. Here are the key figures.
- The UK has recorded 15,650 new cases. That is more than 3,000 below yesterday’s total (18,980) and the lowest daily figure since Monday.
- The UK has recorded 136 more deaths. That is two lower than yesterday, and the lowest daily figure since Monday (50). But for the last four days the figures have been broadly similar, ranging between 136 and 143. This time last week the figure was 87. These figures cover people who died within 28 days of testing positive.
- The weekly death total has risen by more than 80%. There have been 750 deaths over the last week, the dashboard says. That marks an 82.5% increase on the total for the previous week (339).
- There are 4,647 coronavirus patients in hospital in England, compared to 4,379 yesterday. But the number of patients on mechanical ventilation remains the same as yesterday, at 482.
Updated
During the press conference Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, retweeted this from the broadcaster Andrea Catherwood.
Patrick Valance is making it clear he wanted a circuit break in September and the tier 3 measures aren’t enough to get R below 1 #pressbriefing
— Andrea Catherwood (@acatherwoodnews) October 16, 2020
Q: You say that you are prepared to take the UK out of the EU without a trade deal. How do you explain that to people in the car industry, who will face tariffs of 10%, or people in the lamb industry, who might face tariffs of 40% or more?
Johnson says he wants a Canada-style deal. But he says he is confident the UK can prosper.
And that’s it. The press conference is over.
Q: How long will the tier 3 restrictions in Lancashire last? And how long can people put up with them?
Johnson says he wants to say thank you to people for putting up with these.
We can do it, he says.
The quantum by which we have to reduce the R number is not as big as it was at the start of this, he says. He says he would like to see Lancashire coming out of tier 3 as quickly as possible.
Updated
Q: Would a circuit breaker still work?
Vallance says it would work any time. A circuit breaker is one way to do it. But there are others, he says.
On Brexit, Johnson says the EU don’t seem to want to progress a free trade deal.
Unless that changes, the UK will come out on Australian terms.
Q: What extra measures might help out?
Vallance says they have all been laid out.
He may be referring to this document.
Updated
Dr Susan Hopkins from Public Health England is speaking now.
She says the new testing programme is looking at how it can pick up asymptomatic cases.
Q: Aren’t much stronger measures needed? Almost 50,000 people a day are getting infected. (See 4.20pm.)
Johnson says it is right that “urgent action” is needed in areas where the virus is most prevalent.
But the R number is not rising in the way it was a month ago, he says, or at the start of the pandemic.
He says there is “more than a chance” that they can get R down. If it can be reduced by 30%, it will go below 1, he says.
He says areas across the country will have to do more.
It is better to try the local route, he says, rather than go back to the “bad old days”, closing schools and forcing people to stay at home. That would cause long-term damage, he says.
Q: Politicians are squabbling. Are they costing lives?
Vallance says it is important to go quite hard and quite fast. The more you do that, the more effective it is, he says.
Updated
Vallance says Sage recommended a circuit break in September.
It is crucial to get R below one. There are a number of ways in which that cannot be done.
He says, as Prof Chris Whitty said on Monday, the tier 3 baseline measures on their own would not get R below 1. But with other measures added, they could get R below 1, he says.
He says Sage also stressed that there are other factors that need to be taken into account by politicians, like the social impact of lockdown measures.
Updated
Johnson says a national lockdown does not make sense. He does not see how locking down in Cornwall, where cases are low, would help the situation in the north-west.
He says he hopes Andy Burnham will “come with us”. Support is available, he says.
He says it would be better to act together, because he wants “the maximum local buy-in” and maximum local leadership.
He says countries around the world have been trying local approaches.
He says he reserves the right to step in.
Johnson is now taking questions.
The first comes from a member of the public who wants to know, as someone living in Kent, if the rules allow him to visit his son in Essex, where tighter rules apply.
Johnson says that, alas, restrictions apply – but he urges the caller to check a local website for details of the rules.
Updated
Vallance shows a chart for hospital admissions by age.
And here are figures for ICU units.
The next chart shows where the virus is growing.
The figure on the left shows the prevalence of Covid, and the one on the right shows the rate at which it is growing.
And here are the equivalent figures for over-60s.
The next slide covers incidence - the number of people infected every day.
The next slide covers the R number.
Vallance says the red line represents R at 1 - where the virus is not growing, but not diminishing.
He says although R has gone up, it is not where it was at the start of the pandemic, around 3. That’s because of the measures people are taking, he says.
Updated
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, is speaking now.
He is presenting slides. He starts with one showing the estimate for the number of people infected.
But Johnson says he has to add a note of caution.
He says it will take time to develop these tests, and to make them widely available.
He says the most important thing is that people isolate when they test positive.
Johnson says tier 3 areas will get priority as rapid-result tests are rolled out
Johnson says in recent weeks it has become clear that some fast tests are highly effective.
Some can produce a result within 15 minutes.
The government has started to build the capacity to manufacture them. And they will be trialed more in the next few weeks, he says.
He says these could be used to test people in care homes, and students and pupils, hence making it easier for education to keep going.
He says any areas that enter the tier 3 level will be prioritised for these tests.
Updated
Johnson says he knows some people favour a national lockdown.
But he does not see the case for imposing restrictions on somewhere like Cornwall, where case numbers are low.
He says if at all possible he wants to avoid a national lockdown.
Updated
Johnson does not rule out imposing restrictions unilaterally in Manchester
Johnson says he has not reached agreement with Greater Manchester yet.
He says he “completely understands” why Andy Burnham, the mayor, is reluctant to agree to further restrictions.
But cases have doubled in nine days.
The number of patients in ICU beds is already 40% of the level at the peak in spring.
And, at the current rate, there will be more people in intensive care than at the height of the first wave.
He says time is of the essence. He hopes they can reach agreement.
He says if necessary he can impose restrictions unilaterally. But they would be more effective with local support, he says.
Updated
Boris Johnson is speaking now.
He thanks the mayor and local leaders who have worked with the government to agree local restrictions. He names Steve Rotheram, the Liverpool city region mayor, and Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, as being helpful.
Without action, the NHS would be struggling, he says.
He says the job support scheme and universal credit mean those affected by businesses having to close will get up to 80% of their wages.
Updated
Boris Johnson's press conference
Boris Johnson is due to hold a press conference at 4pm.
The questions will probably mostly be about the two separate B-themed stand-offs that No 10 is engaged in - with Brussels and (Andy) Burnham.
Here is our latest story on Brexit.
And here is our latest story about coronavirus and Greater Manchester.
A senior Tory peer has criticised the government for failing to commit to retaining the temporary £20 a week increase to universal credit and tax credits, brought in to help low-income families cope with extra Covid-19 living costs.
Michael Forsyth said reversing the uplift next April, which would leave millions of families £1,000 a year worse off overnight, would be “a terrible error” and push many households into poverty.
In a letter to the work and pensions secretary, Therese Coffey, Forsyth said:
Different public bodies have made a range of forecasts on the level of peak unemployment over the coming months but they all agree that it will rise substantially throughout the winter, harming millions.
Cutting the level of universal credit in April, when the level of unemployment will remain substantial, would be a terrible error.
The Resolution Foundation has calculated that the cut will cause the incomes of the poorest households to fall by as much as 7%, a rate that will push many beyond the brink.
Forsyth, a self-confessed Thatcherite and a cabinet minister in John Major’s government in the mid-1990s, was writing as chair of the influential Lords economic affairs committee, which published a highly critical report into universal credit in the summer.
The committee, whose members include the Tory peer Dido Harding, who is the head of the government’s struggling test and trace system, called for the £20 uplift to be made permanent.
Forsyth’s intervention is likely to increase the pressure on ministers to extend the payment. Tory backbench MPs calling for its extension include two former work and pensions secretaries, Stephen Crabb and Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
Updated
Covid growing at between 4% and 7% per day, government says
The Government Office of Science has published its latest estimates for R, the reproduction number, and the growth rate for coronavirus. They are here.
The figures for England are marginally better than last week, when R for England was between 1.2 and 1.5, and the growth rate was between +4% and +8%.
But for the UK as a whole, the figures are contradictory. R was marginally lower last week, between 1.2 and 1.5. But the growth rate was marginally higher, between +4% and +9%.
UPDATE: I should have said “look contradictory” because the R number and the growth rate are different measures, and it is possible for one to go down while the other goes up. CumGranoSalis explains this well BTL.
Updated
NHS England has recorded 82 further coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here.
Scotland has recorded 1,196 new cases and nine further deaths, as mentioned earlier. The details are here. That is the lowest figure for new cases since Monday (961) and lower than the figure for last Friday (1,246).
Public Health Wales has recorded 979 new cases - a record daily high - and five further deaths. The previous highest daily number of new cases was 946 on Wednesday. The details are here.
And Northern Ireland has recorded two further deaths but 1,299 new cases. A week ago today there were 1,080 new cases. The details are here.
Nicola Sturgeon has seized on Boris Johnson’s “reckless” warnings to prepare for a no-deal Brexit in January as further proof of the need for independence, as Scotland gears up for next year’s Holyrood elections.
The first minister said it was beyond belief the prime minister was planning for no deal with the EU while the world was gripped by a pandemic and a recession, claiming voters and businesses “will be in despair” at his latest statement. She said:
At best, this is reckless brinkmanship. At worst, it means the UK government is now actively pursuing a no-deal outcome.
The reality is Scotland’s economy is going to be damaged by a further needless hit to jobs at the worst possible time, with either a thin trade deal or no deal now the only possible outcomes.
Sturgeon said a no-deal Brexit would lead to heavy tariffs which would cripple many businesses, and called on Johnson to retract his ultimatum. “The Scottish government view is clear: the best future for Scotland is to become an independent country,” she said.
Sturgeon’s language is intended to start framing battle lines for next May’s Scottish parliamentary elections, which the latest polls suggest the Scottish National party will win by a significant margin. Earlier this week Ipsos Mori put the SNP 39 points ahead of the Tories on 58%; Savanta ComRes put the SNP 27 points ahead, at 50%.
Sturgeon argues an SNP majority would give her an inarguable mandate to call a second independence referendum. The SNP’s latest party political broadcast, aired earlier this week, puts independence at the forefront of the May campaign by featuring yes voters who rejected independence in the 2014 referendum under the slogan “change must come”.
👇 All these people have one thing in common.
— The SNP (@theSNP) October 12, 2020
🏴 They’ve changed from No to Yes. #ChangeMustCome pic.twitter.com/jtf06aF41Y
Updated
From my colleagues Pamela Duncan and Niamh McIntyre
From tonight more than half the population of England will be living in areas classed as “high risk” or “very high risk” under the government’s three-tier system, equivalent to 28.4m people.
All of Lancashire county (Lancashire, Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool council areas) are to move from tier 2 to the higher tier 3 category from midnight, meaning more than 3 million people are now living in the highest-risk areas.
A further 25.3 million people are in “high risk” areas, where the English tier 2 rules apply.
In Wales, enhanced rules apply to those living in 17 areas which are home to more than three quarters (77%) of the population. The rules include restrictions on entering or leaving those areas without “reasonable excuse” and a ban on forming or being in extended household “bubbles”.
Indoor mixing of different households in private dwellings (with some exceptions) was already in place in Northern Ireland, with additional restrictions – including a ban on all alcohol sales after 8pm – coming into effect this evening.
In Scotland, nationwide restrictions remain in place, meaning all pubs, bars, restaurants and cafes can only operate from 6am to 6pm and cannot serve alcohol until 26 October, while all licensed premises in the central belt are closed other than for takeaways.
Updated
No 10 escalates Johnson's no-deal rhetoric - Summary and analysis
Trade negotiations often involve threats to walk away, and dire forecasts, before both side agree to compromise, and Brexit-watchers have been waiting for the UK-EU trade talks to arrive at this moment. It came this morning, when Boris Johnson used a TV statement (see 12.29pm) to say that there would no deal without a “fundamental change” in the EU’s approach.
But threats only work if people take them seriously and Johnson’s comments do not seem to have been taken as a sincere statement of intent to walk away. It was telling that, despite being asked twice if he was saying the talks were over, he would not use those words. (See 12.41pm.) If the foreign exchange markets thought Johnson was abandoning hopes of a deal, the pound would have fallen (as it has repeatedly in key moments in the Brexit drama since 2016). But it didn’t. “Market participants see comments from Boris Johnson as mainly political posturing at this stage,” an analyst told Bloomberg.
The pound fluctuates between gains and losses after Boris Johnson says the nation is preparing for a thin, Australia-style trade deal with the EU https://t.co/lzBTCqlY8F pic.twitter.com/YbntZLyFca
— Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) October 16, 2020
So No 10 seems to have decided to have another go. At the daily lobby briefing the prime minister’s spokesman used language that markedly toughened the government’s position. This is unusual, because normally words from the PM carry more weight than words from a spokesman. But the spokesman wasn’t improvising. He used the same phrases several times – a sure sign he was speaking from a script.
Here are the key points.
- The spokesman said the trade talks were now over. (See 2.11pm.) That goes beyond what Johnson himself was saying just an hour or so earlier.
- The spokesman accused the EU of effectively ending the talks. He said:
There’s no point in trade talks if the EU doesn’t change its position. The EU effectively ended the trade talks yesterday.
Only if the EU fundamentally changes its position will it be worth talking.
He highlighted as particularly objectionable the line in the statement from the EU yesterday saying it was calling on “the UK to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible”. He said: “That is obviously not the basis for a negotiation.”
- He said that Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, should only come to London for talks next week as planned if he is willing to compromise on a trade deal – or instead if he wants to negotiate the mini side-deals that might accompany the UK trading with the EU on WTO terms. After Johnson’s statement this morning the EU essentially brushed it aside by saying Barnier was on his way to London anyway. (See 12.49pm.) This implied that the talks were still going on, and that Johnson was just posturing. Asked if Barnier was welcome or expected, the spokesman said:
What I would say to that is there is only any point in Michel Barnier coming to London next week if he’s prepared to discuss all of the issues on the basis of legal text in an accelerated way without the UK being required to make all of the moves, or if he’s willing to discuss practicalities of areas such as travel and haulage which the PM mentioned in his statement.
And at another point the spokesman said:
Our position is a clear one. Only if the EU fundamentally changes position will it be worthwhile talking.
Updated
No 10 escalates no-deal rhetoric, saying 'trade talks are over'
The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. And the prime minister’s spokesman used it to significantly escalate the rhetoric on a no-deal Brexit. He said the trade talks are over.
He told reporters:
The first thing to say is the trade talks are over. The EU have effectively ended them by saying they do not want to change their negotiating position.
The EU can either fundamentally change their position or we can leave on Australian terms.
The spokesman also said Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, should only come to London next week for his scheduled meeting if he is willing to compromise.
This is more explicit and provocative than what Boris Johnson said when he gave a TV interview this morning. (See 12.29pm.)
I will post more from the briefing in a moment.
Updated
Strugeon condemns Johnson's handling of Brexit, saying no-deal or limited deal hugely disruptive
Nicola Sturgeon has repeated her criticisms of Boris Johnson’s refusal to extend the Brexit transition period until after the Covid pandemic is over, because the Brexit deal is likely to overwhelm the UK’s overstretched governments.
She said Brexit was “another massive disruptive event” on top of the Covid crisis, and said the fresh threat of a no-deal Brexit or one based on minimal agreements on trade “was a matter of real frustration and depression”.
Sturgeon said she had sidelined her planning for a fresh independence referendum when the pandemic struck in March, and said it was deeply frustration the prime minister had not asked the EU for an extension to the transition period.
Asked at her daily Covid press briefing about Johnson’s latest warnings he would pursue a no-deal Brexit in January if necessary, she said a no-deal or minimal deal was now inevitable and would cause significant disruption early next year. She said:
I think that is now inescapable. I find it very, very frustrating that at a time when all of us should be giving 100% of our time and focus and energy to Covid, that the Scottish government, and this will be true of other governments in the UK, are having to think about how we cope with the prospects of Brexit where the implications of that are potentially huge.
We will do everything we can to deal with the implications of that but make no mistake, resources are finite. Every civil servant’s or every hour of my time that has to be spent right now thinking about the implications of a no-deal Brexit or a bare minimum deal Brexit is a civil servant’s or an hour of my time not focused as it should on trying to steer the country through the Covid pandemic.
[We] don’t need another big thing to be dealing with because all of us should be focusing on the Covid priority that lies ahead of us.
Liverpool leaders demand to know why their gyms must close when Lancashire's can stay open
Liverpool’s mayor Joe Anderson has criticised the government’s tiered lockdown strategy as an “inconsistent mess” after it was announced gyms in Lancashire would be allowed to stay open in tier 3, despite gyms in Liverpool being forced to close under the same measures. He posted this on Twitter.
Liverpool City Region has demanded immediate clarification on why Lancashire Gyms are allowed to stay open and Liverpools close. Inconsistent mess we now have Tier 3 A and Tier 3 B. Are Gym users in Lancashire more safer than those in Liverpool Region 😱 #COVID-19 #shambles
— Joe Anderson (@mayor_anderson) October 16, 2020
Steve Rotheram, the metro mayor of the Liverpool City Region also said he was “demanding answers”.
The Tier system was meant to be offer simplicity and uniformity. Instead, we're seeing a two-tiered system of tiers emerge.
— Steve Rotheram (@MetroMayorSteve) October 16, 2020
How are gym users in our region more at risk than others? We were given no say in gym closures but this is just wrong.
We're demanding answers. https://t.co/ummGokNqnh
The closure of gyms has been a point of particular controversy in the Liverpool area, with around 70 gyms refusing to close their doors and fundraising over £45,000 to pay for fines handed out for breaking the rules.
They argued the benefit of gyms to physical and mental health outweighs the risk of spreading the coronavirus, which they say data has shown to be minimal in gyms. However some medical experts have said the enclosed humid spaces within gyms, and shared equipment, encourage the virus to spread.
Body Tech Fitness in Moreton, Wirral, received a £1,000 fine from police, with owner Nick Whitcombe saying, “We are not staying open for financial gain but more for our members mental and physical well-being.”
A petition to stop the closure of gyms in the area has now received over 330,000 signatures, while PureGym - Britain’s largest gym chain - said it would consider legal action to protect the industry.
After the Lancashire announcement, Whitcombe was positive that change in Liverpool was imminent. “We’re making a difference, Lancashire has not been given these restrictions,” he said, adding that he believed talks were already underway to see if the decision could be reversed in Liverpool. “I am confident that we have done this, it’s just a matter of time now before this gets pushed through and we can go back to normal.”
Johnson's handling of Brexit 'disastrous', say Lib Dems
This is from Christine Jardine, the Lib Dem Brexit spokesperson, on the PM’s statement about the UK-EU trade talks. She said:
Boris Johnson’s handling of Brexit has been disastrous and these reckless comments are just further evidence of the prime minister’s incompetence. It has been more than four years since the referendum and yet here we are with a potential no deal and less than three months until the transition period ends.
At a time when the UK is already facing the biggest crisis in generations as a result of coronavirus, we cannot afford to crash out of the EU without a deal in place or to accept a rushed, bad deal. The government cannot allow people’s livelihoods to be put further at risk, when so many are already struggling to get by.
Keeping schools open remains a “top priority” for the Welsh government as it contemplates a nationwide “circuit breaker”. (See 12.57pm.) But the first minister, Mark Drakeford, admitted that whether schools would be able to remain open “entirely” was still under discussion.
Boris Johnson has (finally) replied to two letters from Drakeford calling on him to stop people travelling out of Covid-19 hotspots in England.
Drakeford said Johnson was refusing to follow Wales and ban most travel from hotspots. But the first minister said the tone of Johnson’s letter was “reasonable” and the prime minister had reaffirmed “powerfully” his wish to work together with Wales.
Updated
Third of million people in England likely to have had Covid last week, ONS says
The ONS has published its weekly infection survey. Here are the main points.
- The ONS says that an estimated one in 160 people had coronavirus in England last week. The week before it was one in 240. It says:
An estimated 336,500 people (95% credible interval: 312,200 to 362,000) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (Covid-19) during the most recent week, from 2 to 8 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 160 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 170 to 1 in 150).
- It estimates that last week there were around 27,900 new infections per day in England. This is up 62% from an estimated 17,200 new cases per day the previous week.
- It says the survey shows the number of infections has “continued to increase rapidly in recent weeks”. It says the highest rates have been “in the north-west, Yorkshire and the Humber, and the north-east, which have all seen steep increases in recent weeks.” Here are the regional figures.
- It says that in Wales last week an estimated one in 390 people had coronavirus. In Wales it says “there is some evidence that positivity rates may now have levelled off, although uncertainty is high.”
- It says that in the two weeks to 8 October an estimated one in 250 in Northern Ireland had coronavirus. (Northern Ireland was only recently added to the survey, which is why its data is not so precise.)
Another nine people have died in Scotland after a positive Covid-19 test, as hospitals recorded a further rise in admissions over the last 24 hours of 27, up to 169 patients, with 58 people now in intensive care, an increase of six overnight.
Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, said there were 1,196 positive tests over the last 24 hours, taking Scotland’s total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases to 45,232.
Boris Johnson is going to hold a press conference at 4pm, it’s been confirmed.
Set your watches - PM's presser scheduled for 4pm ⏰ https://t.co/vilxJZv7O6
— Aubrey Allegretti (@breeallegretti) October 16, 2020
Wales considering short 'stay at home' lockdown to control Covid, Drakeford confirms
The Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, has confirmed his government is considering a “time-limited firebreak” – or circuit breaker – for the whole of Wales.
He said: “We would all have to stay at home once again to save lives.” But he said this would be “for weeks, not months”.
He said the government was considering a two- or three-week break. Ministers would meet to discuss it over the weekend and report back on Monday.
Drakeford said:
This would be a short, sharp shock to the virus that would turn back the clock, buying us more time and vital capacity.
We face a very serious situation today in Wales. Unless we are able to get coronavirus back under control there is a real risk our NHS will be overwhelmed. If that happens even larger numbers of people will die.
The R number in Wales is at 1.4 and there are more than 800 people in hospital with the virus – up from 500 last week. The first minister said critical care units were full.
He said there were “no easy options”, adding: “We will all have to act together to bring the levels down and keep them down.”
Updated
EU says trade talks will continue next week despite PM's no-deal rhetoric
Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, has responded to Boris Johnson. She has repeated the stock EU line about it not being willing to do a deal at any price but – crucially – she says the talks are continuing.
That suggests the EU is not interpreting Boris Johnson’s statement as evidence that the UK has abandoned hopes of a deal.
🇪🇺-🇬🇧 talks: the EU continues to work for a deal, but not at any price.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) October 16, 2020
As planned, our negotiation team will go to London next week to intensify these negotiations.
Updated
Johnson suggests it's now up to EU to compromise - but he won't say UK giving up on trade talks completely
For his broadcast clip Boris Johnson took two questions on Brexit after his opening statement. (See 12.29pm.) When he was asked why he was not saying the UK was walking away from the talks, he replied:
As far as I can see they’ve abandoned the idea of a free trade deal. There doesn’t seem to be any progress coming from Brussels.
So what we’re saying to them is: ‘Only come here, come to us, if there’s some fundamental change of approach’.
Otherwise we’re more than happy to talk about the practicalities that I described, the social security issues, road haulage and so on. But unless there’s a fundamental change of approach, we’re going to go for the Australia solution.
And we should do it with great confidence, as I said – high hearts, confidence – because we can do it. There was always going to be change on 1 January but it’s becoming clear that the EU don’t want to do the type of Canada deal that we originally asked for.
And it does seem curious that after 45 years of membership, they can offer Canada terms they wouldn’t offer us.
Johnson was asked again to clarify whether or not the UK was pulling out of the trade talks. He replied:
If there’s a fundamental change [in their] approach, of course we’re always willing to listen. But it didn’t seem particularly encouraging from the summit in Brussels yesterday and today.
Updated
Full text of Boris Johnson's statement on UK-EU trade talks
Here is the statement from Boris Johnson in full.
From the outset we were totally clear that we wanted nothing more complicated than a Canada-style relationship based on friendship and free trade.
To judge by the latest EU summit in Brussels, that won’t work for our EU partners.
They want the continued ability to control our legislative freedom, our fisheries, in a way that is completely unacceptable to an independent country.
And since we have only 10 weeks until the end of the transition period on 1 January, I have to make a judgment about the likely outcome and to get us all ready.
And given that they have refused to negotiate seriously for much of the last few months and given that this summit appears explicitly to rule out a Canada-style deal, I’ve concluded that we should get ready for 1 January with arrangements that are more like Australia’s, based on simple principles of global free trade.
And we can do it because we always knew that there would be change on 1 January whatever type of relationship we had.
And so now is the time for our businesses to get ready and for our hauliers to get ready, for travellers to get ready.
And, of course, we’re willing to discuss the practicalities with our friends where a lot of progress has already been made, by the way, on such issues as social security and aviation, nuclear cooperation, and so on.
But, for whatever reason, it’s clear from the summit that after 45 years of membership, they are not willing, unless there’s some fundamental change of approach, to offer this country the same terms as Canada.
And so with high hearts and with complete confidence, we will prepare to embrace the alternative and we will prosper mightily as an independent free-trading nation controlling our own borders, our fisheries and setting our own laws.
And in the meantime, the government will, of course, be focusing on tackling Coivd and building that better so that 2021 is a year of recovery and renewal.
Updated
Q: What is happening with the Covid restrictions?
Johnson says something must happen in Greater Manchester. He would much rather act with local leaders. He urges Manchester’s leaders to cooperate, as Liverpool’s and Lancashire’s have done.
He says this is about saving lives. Everyone in Greater Manchester should think about it, he says.
And that’s it. The clip is over.
I will post the full quotes shortly.
Johnson suggests no point in further EU talks unless they change their mind
Johnson says he is saying to the EU that it is now up to them to return to the UK if they have changed their mind.
But the UK can manage without, he says.
Q: Are you walking away?
Johnson says, if there is a fundamental change of approach, he is willing to listen. But it did not sound like that from what was said in Brussels.
Johnson says there will be no deal with EU unless there is 'fundamental change' in Brussels
Sky and BBC News are broadcasting the Boris Johnson statement now.
He says he was clear from the outset the UK wanted a Canada-style deal.
Judging from the EU summit, that won’t work.
They want to control the UK in a way that is unacceptable to the UK, he says.
He says he has to make a judgment about the outcome of talks.
Given the summit has appeared to rule out a Canada-style deal, he has conclued that the UK should get ready for an Australia-style outcome.
Businesses and hauliers should get ready for that, he says.
He says it is clear from the summit that, unless there is “some fundamental change of approach”, they will not give the UK what it wants.
But the UK can prosper mightily without a deal, he says.
Updated
Boris Johnson says UK must prepare for no trade deal with EU from January
Boris Johnson has recorded a clip for broadcasters on the UK-EU trade talks. It is due to be broadcast shortly, but Sky’s Sam Coates has got the line.
BREAKING: Boris Johnson says the UK must prepared for no trade deal with the EU from Jan 1
— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) October 16, 2020
Says EU not willing to give UK a Canada style deal
If the EU comes back "with a fundamental change of opinion" then the UK will listen. But says that doesn't sound likely after the summit
Updated
Lancashire to get £12m as it goes into tier 3, with extra funding later, government says
The DHSC news release also confirms that, in return for going into tier 3, Lancashire is to get a financial package worth £12m initially - with an unspecified amount coming later. It says:
To support the local authority during this period, the government will be providing a support package worth £12m. The government will also establish a dedicated, ministerial-led taskforce with additional funding to work with Lancashire leaders to support local businesses to recover over the coming six months.
It also says the tier 3 measures will be reviewed every fortnight to see if they are still needed.
Lancashire will have more Covid patients on ventilation within fortnight than during first wave, government says
The DHSC news release also explains why Lancashire is going into tier 3. It says:
In Lancashire, infection rates are among the highest in the country and continuing to rise rapidly. Rates are highest for those aged 16-29 at 552 per 100,000 people, while in the most vulnerable age group, those aged over 60, cases stand at 214 per 100,000 people. This increases to 594 over 100,000 for the over 60s in Burnley and 671 per 100,000 for 16- to 29-year-olds.
Hospitalisations can occur two to three weeks after someone is infected with the virus, meaning we anticipate the number of patients in hospital in Lancashire to rise.
The number of patients with Covid-19 in intensive care beds has reached nearly half the number seen at the height of the pandemic earlier this year, and the latest data suggests there will be more people in mechanical ventilation beds in Lancashire within two weeks than there were in the first wave. This is as a result of infections which have already happened, rather than a prediction – underlining the need for urgent action now to prevent the epidemic in Lancashire rising even further.
Updated
Lancashire tier 3 rules - Details
The DHSC says most of the the new rules for Lancashire will come into force at 00.01am tomorrow, ie, just after midnight.
Under the three-tier system announced on Monday, tier 3 is a baseline. In addition to the baseline restrictions, new ones can be added.
And these are the specific ones for Lancashire.
The adult gaming industry, casinos, bingo halls, bookmakers and betting shops, and soft play areas must close.
Car boot sales [will] not be permitted.
These two rules will come into force from 00.01am on Monday.
The DHSC news release also summarises what the tier 3 baseline rules involve. It says:
People must not socialise with anybody they do not live with, or have formed a support bubble with, in any indoor setting or in any private garden or at most outdoor hospitality venues and ticketed events.
People must not socialise in a group of more than six in an outdoor public space such as a park or beach, the countryside, a public garden or a sports venue.
All pubs and bars must close, unless they are serving substantial meals.
People should try to avoid travelling outside the very-high alert level or entering a very-high alert level area, other than for work, education or for caring responsibilities or to travel through as part of a longer journey.
Residents should avoid staying overnight in another part of the UK, and others should avoid staying overnight in the very high alert area.
Updated
Hancock says Lancashire moving into strictest tier 3 Covid regulations due to 'unrelenting rise in cases'
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has confirmed that Lancashire is moving into tier 3. It will join the Liverpool city region, which until today was the only area of England in tier 3, where the strictest rules apply.
In a statement Matt Hancock, the health and social care secretary, said:
An unrelenting rise in cases in Lancashire means we must act now, and we have worked intensively with local leaders to agree on additional restrictions.
I know how heavy these additional challenges will weigh on everyday life for the people of Lancashire – but they are critical in bringing this virus under control.
Without them, we risk the health of your loved ones, your most vulnerable, and your local NHS services. Now is the time to play your part, and we will make sure you are supported.
Updated
ONS report confirms Covid risk greater for most minority ethnic groups
The Office for National Statistics has this morning published an update to the report it published in May looking at how the risk of dying from coronavirus varies amongst different ethnic groups. The original research found that black people are more than four times more likely to die from Covid-19 than white people.
Today’s report broadly confirms what was in the earlier one, but it uses more detailed ethnic categories, and it also contains new analysis about the extent to which disparities can be explained by factors like age, geography, class and pre-existing conditions. Ben Humberstone, deputy director of health and life events at the ONS said:
Using more detailed ethnic group categories and adding measures of pre-existing health conditions from hospital data we have been able to build on previous analyses of ethnic disparities in Covid-19 mortality.
Today’s report confirms that when adjusting for age, rates of death involving Covid-19 remain greater for most ethnic minority groups, and most notably so for people of Black African, Black Caribbean, Bangladeshi and Pakistani ethnic background.
Our statistical modelling shows that a large proportion of the difference in the risk of Covid-19 mortality between ethnic groups can be explained by demographic, geographical and socioeconomic factors, such as where you live or the occupation you’re in. It also found that although specific pre-existing conditions place people at greater risk of COVID-19 mortality generally, it does not explain the remaining ethnic background differences in mortality.
These charts show average deaths from coronavirus by ethnic group, adjusted for age. (Older people are more likely to die from Covid, and some ethnic groups a larger proportion of over-65s than others.) There is one for men and one for women.
And this chart, which only covers deaths of people living in private homes (ie, excluding care homes), shows how much more likely people from different ethnic groups are to die from coronavirus than whites - and how, once geography, class and underlying health conditions are taken into account, those disparities are partly but not wholly reduced.
And here’s an extract from the ONS explanation of this table.
After adjusting for age, males and females from all ethnic minority groups (except females of Chinese ethnic background) were at greater risk of death involving COVID-19 than the White ethnic group. The rate of death involving Covid-19 was 3.8 times greater for Black African males and 2.9 times greater for Black African females than the White ethnic group ...
The light and dark green shaded bars [in the table] show estimates of differences in the risk of death after further adjusting for geography (local authority and population density) and demographic and socio-economic characteristics (area deprivation, household deprivation, socio-economic position, household composition, living arrangements with regard to multigenerational households, and measures of occupational exposure to the disease (including key worker status and exposure to others) respectively.
The Welsh government has called for the Home Office to close a military camp in south-west Wales that is being used to house asylum seekers, saying it does not meet their basic human needs.
In a written statement, the Labour-led government said the Penally camp in Pembrokeshire was not suitable for asylum seekers. The deputy minister, Jane Hutt, wrote:
We believe the use of the camp should end as quickly as possible. The Welsh government has repeatedly expressed significant concerns about the suitability of the camp at Penally being used to accommodate asylum seekers.
The camp does not meet the basic human needs of people seeking a new life in the UK. It places people in accommodation, which is neither designed nor appropriate for long-term use – mainly poorly insulated huts – and risks re-traumatising many vulnerable people who may have been fleeing abuse and torture.
The camp was opened last month by the UK government.
Updated
These are from Sky’s Inzamam Rashid.
BREAKING: A deal has been done to move Lancashire into Tier 3. Lancashire source tells me ‘we won significant successions and additional cash from government.’ An announcement is expected later today. @SkyNews
— Inzamam Rashid (@inzyrashid) October 16, 2020
ANALYSIS: As Lancashire will now be reclassified into Tier 3 restrictions the following number of businesses impact will be:
— Inzamam Rashid (@inzyrashid) October 16, 2020
🍻 1,144 pubs & wine bars SHUT❌
🐎 98 betting shops SHUT ❌
🏋🏽 167 Gyms SHUT ❌
🎰 3 casinos SHUT ❌@SkyNews
According to Sky News, sources at Lancashire county council are claiming they have obtained significant concessions from the government in return for its agreement for the county to go into tier 3.
Lancashire 'set to be placed under strictest tier 3 restrictions'
Lancashire is going to be placed into the very high alert level, tier 3, the BBC is reporting. That means people living there would be subject to the strictest coronavirus regulations, with pubs only allowed to serve customers having a proper meal and residents advised generally not to travel outside the area.
BBC understands deal has been done which puts Lancashire into Tier 3 restrictions. Announcement expected about 11am @MikeStevensBBC #coronavirus
— Vicki Young (@BBCVickiYoung) October 16, 2020
Two days ago Geoff Driver, the Conservative leader, said he thought it was “inevitable” that the county would enter tier 3.
My colleague Haroon Siddique has a guide to the rules here.
Updated
Around 47,000 Covid-19 infections are occurring daily across England, with deaths expected to hit 240 to 690 per day by 26 October, according to evidence presented to government scientists.
The Medical Research Council (MRC) biostatistics unit at Cambridge University published new predictions earlier this week on how fast the pandemic is growing across the country.
As PA Media reports, they estimate cases are doubling in under seven days, with a “substantial proportion” of those being asymptomatic. The unit, which provides analysis used by the government to produce its estimate for R, the reproduction number, said:
Our current estimate of the number of infections occurring each day across England is 47,000. We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to be between 240 and 690 on 26 October.
They said the daily number of infections was within the range of 28,900 to 74,900 per day, with the best estimate being 47,000. They also said the estimated growth rate for England was 0.09 per day.
“This means that the number of infections grows by 9% each day and it translates into a doubling in number in under one week,” they said.
Updated
The latest edition of the Guardian’s Politics Weekly Extra podcast, focusing on the US presidential election, is out. As reports suggest that Downing Street has been preparing for Trump’s exit from the White House, Jonathan Freedland and Rafael Behr look at how the election might affect America’s relationship with the rest of the world.
Updated
This morning’s Guardian splash, about coronavirus, contains this revelation.
The Guardian has been told the Treasury is now urgently weighing up the possibility of offering more support to regions facing new restrictions, one of the major demands of Burnham and his allies.
But this is expected to focus on supporting businesses in the less restrictive tier 2 areas. As of Saturday, this will include London – where infection rates are understood to be doubling every week to 10 days – as well as areas including Essex, York and parts of Derbyshire.
It prompted this response from Lucy Powell, the Labour MP for Manchester Central and a shadow business minister.
So now the Treasury is to “focus” on support for “businesses in Tier 2” as London goes into it ... errrr 👋👋 we’ve been in Tier 2 for nearly 3 months with nothing.
— Lucy Powell MP (@LucyMPowell) October 16, 2020
They wonder why we up here are fed up and are demanding more support. pic.twitter.com/eLKHURWnPq
Updated
The first Covid-19 death has been recorded in the Western Isles after a resident at a care home on South Uist died on Thursday, three weeks after contracting the virus.
NHS Western Isles and the local council, Comhairle Nan Eilean Siar, confirmed the death at Sacred Heart care home in Daliburgh in a joint statement and sent their condolences to the family.
Their statement indicated, however, that the decision to record the death as Covid-related was procedural, implying the resident did not have the virus when they died.
“We are sorry to confirm the death in a care home of a resident who had tested positive for Covid-19 approximately three weeks before their death, and send our condolences to their family and loved ones,” they said.
“Any individual who sadly passes away within 28 days of a positive test for Covid-19 infection will have this confirmed as a Covid-19 death by Public Health Scotland regardless of any other contributory factors.”
Until this week, the Western Isles had been the only council in the UK not to have recorded a Covid-19 fatality, and until early September had recorded only seven Covid cases. Those figures escalated rapidly after infections rose later in September, to total 58 yesterday.
Updated
Merkel urges Johnson not to abandon Brexit negotiations
Angela Merkel has called on Boris Johnson to keep negotiating over Brexit, saying the EU will need to compromise, ahead of a statement by the prime minister on whether he will walk out of the trade and security talks, my colleague Daniel Boffey reports.
Raab suggests PM won't abandon talks with EU, saying 'there's deal to be done'
In his interviews this morning Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, also hinted that the UK is not about abandon the trade talks with the EU.
He said that he was “surprised and disappointed by the lack of flexibility and will that at least seems to have come out of the European council”.
Raab was referring to this statement issued by EU leaders at their Brussels summit yesterday, and in particular this line (italics added by me): “The European council invites the unionʼs chief negotiator to continue negotiations in the coming weeks, and calls on the UK to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible.”
But Raab also signalled that the UK wants to keep talking. He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme:
There’s a deal to be done, but there needs to be flexibility on both sides, energy and goodwill and political will on both sides, and the prime minister will say more [today].
Updated
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has hit back at a suggestion in an interview from Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, that he is being selfish.
It’s not about what we want for ourselves, @DominicRaab. It’s about what we want for low-paid and self-employed people everywhere: fairness. https://t.co/diqnm8lmA1
— Andy Burnham (@AndyBurnhamGM) October 16, 2020
Some papers, like the Telegraph and the Sun, are reporting that Boris Johnson will impose tier 3 restrictions on Greater Manchester and Lancashire today.
But my colleague Helen Pidd is sceptical about claims that local leaders in Lancashire are close to agreeing to this.
Hmm. The Lancashire politicians I spoke to yesterday didn’t sound close to rolling over on Tier 3 unless there’s a much better support package in place. But the Sun seems to think the county has agreed - or is about to - along with the north-east. https://t.co/ttXfLfn5xK
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) October 16, 2020
Raab accuses Burnham of holding government 'over a barrel'
Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, was doing the morning interview round on behalf of No 10 and, on the prospect of moving Greater Manchester into tier 3, the very high alert level, where the strictest restrictions would apply, he said that ultimately action would have to be taken. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, was “holding the government over a barrel”, he said.
Ultimately we need to take action – we can’t have a situation as we have seen in Manchester where Andy Burnham is effectively trying to hold the government over a barrel over money and politics when actually we need to take action.
The cases there are 470 per 100,000 so it is very serious, and we must take action in the interest of the people of Manchester and the wider area, and if we take those targeted actions in those areas most affected … we get through this and we avoid the national level lockdown.
But Raab also claimed that the government was still hoping to reach agreement with local leaders on what would happen next – instead of having to impose tier 3 unilaterally. He said:
We will keep talking and we’ll keep working. Obviously in the last resort the government has the powers to proceed in any event, but we would much rather work with the local leaders if at all possible.
Updated
Boris Johnson expected to reveal his next moves on local restrictions and Brexit
Good morning. Boris Johnson faces two big, and largely unrelated decisions, today, and it’s not 100% clear which way they’re going to go. His administration has multiple flaws, but you can’t complain that it ever gets dull.
First, what is he going to do about the high-Covid areas of England where tighter restrictions need to be imposed (more or less everyone agrees) but local leaders won’t agree? This is mostly about Greater Manchester and Lancashire, and at the moment there’s deadlock. Here is our overnight story.
And, second, what is he going to do about the UK-EU trade talks? In September, Johnson said: “If we can’t agree by [15 October, the EU summit], then I do not see that there will be a free trade agreement between us, and we should both accept that and move on.” Well, that was yesterday, this is no deal, and yesterday EU leaders issued a statement that was relatively intransigent. Johnson has to decide whether to implement his threat from last month to walk away, or to keep talking.
One way or another, we will hear from him today. There will be a Downing Street lobby briefing. It is possible he may record a clip for broadcasters. Or we may even get a press conference. No 10 won’t say if one is being scheduled, but this morning Downing Street posted this on Twitter - normally a sign that a press conference is imminent.
Ask a minister a question at the next coronavirus press conference: https://t.co/AciuhAKREC
— UK Prime Minister (@10DowningStreet) October 16, 2020
Apart from all that, it is also a key day for Covid data. Here is the agenda.
9.30am: The ONS publishes reports on Covid mortality rates by ethnicity, and on the social impact of coronavirus.
12pm: The ONS publishes its weekly Covid infection survey - seen as one of the most reliable guides to the prevalence of the virus in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
12.15pm: Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is due to hold her regular coronavirus briefing.
12.15pm: Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, holds a coronavirus briefing.
Lunchtime: The government publishes its latest estimate for R, the reproduction number, and the Covid growth rate.
Politics Live has been doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog for some time and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, like Brexit, and if they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
Updated
