Boris Johnson warned northern leaders that a failure to agree tougher coronavirus restrictions within days would be “unforgivable” as he faced doubt and frustration over a new system designed to prevent the “inexorable” spread of Covid-19.
But Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, warned that even the toughest curbs would probably not contain the spread of the virus in the worst-hit areas and said local authorities would need to add extra restrictions. “The base will not be sufficient. I think that’s very clearly the professional view,” he said.
The full story is here.
Evening summary
Here at the key points from the press conference on the new three-tier Covid alert system for England.
- England is entering a new and crucial phase in the fight against coronavirus, Boris Johnson said, with the virus once again spreading among the elderly and vulnerable, more patients with Covid in hospital than there were on 23 March, and deaths also rising. “These figures are flashing at us like dashboard warnings in a passenger jet and we must act now,” the prime minister said. Local authorities across England will be given around £1bn to protect vital services, Nightingale hospitals across the north are prepared for service and the new tier system for Covid alert was announced to simplify local rules.
- The majority of England is in the medium alert level, which encompasses existing national measures including the rule of six and the 10pm curfew for hospitality settings.
- Most areas currently under local intervention will be at high, plus Nottinghamshire, east and west Cheshire, and High Peak. They will be subject to extra measures including a ban on indoor social mixing between households or support bubbles.
- The Liverpool city region will move to very high from Wednesday, which will mean closure of pubs and bars, gyms, leisure centres, betting shops, adult gaming centres and casinos. Boris Johnson said the very high level was meant for places which without swift action the NHS would be under intolerable pressure. The measures will be reviewed ever four weeks and nowhere will be shut down indefinitely, he said. These will be worked out with local leaders and include tailored packages of support, Johnson added.
- Economic support will be expanded to assist those affected, the PM said. The job support scheme will be extended to cover two-thirds of wages for businesses required to close, and those businesses will be provided with a cash grant of up to £3,000 a month. There will also be extra funding for those in the very high category for local test and trace and enforcement.
- The tier 3 base case alone won’t be enough to get on top of the spread of the virus in areas with the highest rates, Chris Whitty said. The CMO for England said this is the reason for flexibility in this tier for local authorities as the base will not be sufficient and more can be done within that guidance.
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There is a pattern of an increase in hospitalisation, particularly in areas where there is a high transmission, Whitty said. The pattern seen across the country is that when the virus spreads among the young, it then spreads to the elderly and the number of people admitted to hospital rises. ONS data suggests very few people under 44 are admitted to hospital with Covid-19, but this is rising further up in older age groups, most so in the over 85’s.
- A second national lockdown would do a lot of immediate harm, Boris Johnson said. He said he hopes these new measures will be enough to get the R down and the virus under control, while limiting the impact on the economy and wellbeing.
Here is the Guardian’s science editor Ian Sample on why the new rules may not be enough.
Q. Are people in Liverpool city region - many of whom earn less than the minimum wage and will be unable to pay their bills - valued less now, than when 80% of wages were being paid?
Sunak says those affected in the way described can benefit from Universal Credit.
Q. Leaders here first heard of your plans for the region in the papers and today Matt Hancock gave them less than ten minutes warning of the briefing. Is there a lack of respect or is it just the chaos of trying to organise lockdown?
Johnson says he spoke to Steve Rotheram yesterday and he was at the Cobra meeting today.
Driving the R down will take local and national government working together, he says.
And that’s the end of the press conference.
Updated
Q. Do you accept that the lockdown was too early for the north and was taken to suit the south?
Johnson says this bout of the pandemic is more localised and the decision to have the first lockdown was based on the scientific evidence.
Q. What evidence is there that hospitality is the key setting for infections?
Whitty says a group of things all contribute to people mixing and are the most likely to contribute to infections - they are indoors, with people who are not from your household in relatively crowded environments without masks.
Hospitality is one of these contributors, not the only one, he says.
Collectively, the restrictions can pull the numbers down, he says.
Q. Do you acknowledge there are huge inconsistencies over which areas are in which tiers?
Johnson says this will inevitably happen in a complex pandemic.
He says he has high hopes for getting further on mass testing, but for now these restrictions are the best way forward.
Whitty says the UK has been one of the leaders in the science and nobody can predict what treatments will be available to us.
Updated
Q. Why is the only part of the country put under stricter rules the Liverpool city region?
Johnson says local knowledge can be valuable in enforcement and test and trace, and they want to take local leaders with them.
If we can’t reach agreement, it’s the duty of national government to take the necessary action to protect public health, he says.
Q. Why have areas that have been living with restrictions throughout the summer and into autumn not been brought out of them?
Whitty says rates have to be kept down without doing harm to the economy.
He has seen no evidence that people in Bradford have been flouting the rules, he says.
The great majority of people are and have been following the rules, he says.
Here is Whitty’s full answer on why he doesn’t think tier 3 measures alone will be enough in the worst-affected areas.
From the FT’s Jim Pickard
Chris Whitty makes clear he doesn't think the tier 3 measures on their own will be enough in the worst-affected areas: pic.twitter.com/oFnIpQjkN0
— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) October 12, 2020
'We should not have any illusions that we can push R below 1 without causing harm', Whitty says
Q. Were it not for some mayor and local leaders, other areas especially in the north would already be in the very high category?
Johnson says he’s working with local authorities, particularly with the badly affected regions, to support local test and trace and local enforcement.
The primary duty is to save lives and protect the NHS, he adds.
Whitty says people want straight news - to know the worst and know how to avoid it.
The balancing act is doing things which pull down the R below 1 but with minimal impact on the economy, he says. We should not have any illusions that we can do this without causing harm.
Updated
Second national lockdown would do a lot of immediate harm, Johnson says
Q. Are you delaying the inevitable by not introducing a second national lockdown?
Johnson says he hopes there won’t be anything like a second national lockdown and if these new measures are properly implemented they can get the R down.
There’s a need for balance as a second national lockdown would do a lot of immediate harm right now, he adds.
Q. How do you expect pubs, bars and restaurants forced to close to live off two-thirds of their wages when they can’t pay two-thirds of their bills?
Sunak says at two-thirds this offer is broadly in line with support provided in other European countries.
The generosity of the welfare system has been increased, he says.
Q. Are you confident these measures are enough to slow the spread of the disease?
Whitty says he’s confident these measures will help to slow the spread of the virus further.
He says he’s not confident that tier 3 at the base case would be enough alone, which is why local authorities will have the flexibility to bring in additional things within that.
These measures only work if everybody buys into them and does their bit, Whitty says.
Q. What should vulnerable people who have been shielding do now?
Whitty says people who were previously shielding are at greater risk and they are advised to take greater precautions.
They are trying to approach this is in a different way due to mental distress, he says.
Updated
Charlotte from Chesterfield asks what restrictions can be expected over the festive period.
Johnson says they will do their best to get life back to as close to normal as possible for Christmas, but it will depend on people following the measures.
Helen from Derby asks about support for industries like the events sector who have been shut down since March due to government restrictions.
Sunak says there is the job support scheme to allow companies who are open but not trading to bring employees back in a scaled back way.
We need to go further on the rates will continue inexorably to rise, Whitty says.
When you see a rise in people over 60 going into hospital, it’s mirrored by a rise in hospital admissions, he says.
This translates into an increase in hospitalisation, particularly in areas where there is a high transmission, he says.
There has been a rise in the number of people in hospital in every age band, but in particular in those over the age of 85, he says.
Updated
There are very variable rates by different age groups, he says.
The first rapid rise is in younger people, but then you see rises in older age groups.
The same pattern is being such at a much lower rate elsewhere in the country, he says.
And at a much lower rate in these places, he adds.
But we should not be lulled into a false sense of security here, he says.
Updated
And in these places at a lower rate, he says.
Rates since the middle of August have been going up in these places, he says.
This is really important, Whitty says.
The rate in people over 60 is a very good predictor in a bad way of the rates at which people will go into hospital, he says.
On the left, the map shows the current prevalence of the disease, with the darker colours showing areas where the most transmission is occuring, he says.
On the right, the map shows the rate of change, with the dark colours showing the most rapid change, he says.
This shows this is now extending beyond the areas in the NW, NE and parts of the Midlands - clear evidence of spread around the country, he says, though still centred on areas of intervention.
Prof Chris Whitty is speaking now.
The first slide shows the prevalance of the virus in the population from 25 September to 1 October.
The number of people with it went down through June to the beginning of September, where it began to rise again, he says.
Since then it has risen to the level at the beginning of May, he says.
There will also be additional funding for local authorities, he says.
For those entering tier 3, there will be up to £500m provided to fund activities, enforcement, compliance and contact tracing, he says.
Updated
Businesses legally required to close can now claim a cash grant of up to £3,000 depending on the value of the business premises, Sunak says.
He says he also guarantees an extra £1.3bn of funding for the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland administrations if they choose to do something similar.
Updated
The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, is speaking now.
There are three parts to the winter economy plan, he says.
The job support scheme will protect jobs whether the business is open or closed, he says.
If the business can open safely but with reduced or uncertain demand, the government will directly subsidise people’s wages to bring them back to work on shorter hours rather than making them redundant.
Businesses forced to close will have two-thirds of wages covered by the government, he says.
The scheme will run for six months through to next spring, he says.
From Wednesday, local authorities in the Liverpool city region will move to ‘very high’, he says.
In addition to pubs and bars, gyms, leisure centres, betting shops, adult gaming centres and casinos will close.
Updated
The majority of the country will for now be at ‘medium’, Johnson says.
Most areas currently under local intervention will be at ‘high’, he says.
And Nottinghamshire, East Cheshire and West Cheshire, and High Peak will also move to ‘high’, he adds.
Updated
Very high-risk areas will at a minimum see a ban on all social mixing between households in private places including gardens, and pubs and bars must close unless they can operate solely as a restaurant serving alcohol only as part of a main meal, Johnson says.
People will also be asked not to travel into or out of very high alert level areas, he adds.
The prime minister is speaking now.
We must act now, he says.
That is why they are simplifying, standardising and in some places toughening local rules in England by introducing three levels of Covid alert:
Medium: existing national measures including rule of six and curfew for hospitality.
High: extra measures including ban on indoor social mixing between households or support bubbles.
Very high: for places which without swift action the NHS would be under intolerable pressure. These will be reviewed ever four weeks and not in place indefinitely.
Boris Johnson's press conference
The prime minister Boris Johnson’s press conference on England’s new three-tier lockdown system is due to start around 7pm. He will be joined by Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and Prof Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer.
New restrictions banning different households from mixing indoors could be imposed on London as early as this week to prevent rising coronavirus levels, Sadiq Khan has warned.
The capital is expected to be initially placed on “medium” in the new three-tier system of local alerts for England when they come into force on Wednesday.
This would put London with most of the country at the lowest end of the scale, meaning no new restrictions would be imposed immediately and the rule of six and the 10pm curfew staying in place.
But the mayor warned that the city could be moved upwards “very quickly - potentially even this week” after the prime minister, Boris Johnson, set out his plans earlier today.
If the city moves up a notch to “high”, then mixing between different households or social bubbles could be banned indoors, including in pubs and restaurants.
A spokesman for the mayor said:
The virus is now spreading very quickly in every corner of London. The number of cases is rapidly increasing and all the indicators we look at are moving in the wrong direction.
As of today, London is at ‘medium’ in the government’s new alert levels. However, Londoners should understand that this could change very quickly — potentially even this week.
Khan discussed the new alert system with local leaders in the capital on Monday, and they are understood to have agreed further restrictions will soon be needed if the figures continue on the current trajectory.
His spokesman added:
Discussions with London leaders, scientific advisers and the government will continue over the coming days and the mayor will be as clear as possible with Londoners about what they can expect as soon as possible.
Nobody wants to see new measures that will impact on businesses in London such as the hospitality sector — least of all the mayor — but we have a responsibility to act on the evidence if it will save lives.
Updated
Merseyside leaders say they are pushing for further economic support from government
In a joint statement the Liverpool city region mayor, Steve Rotheram, the Liverpool city mayor, Joe Anderson, and the six city region council leaders say they still urging the government to provide them with further financial support. They say:
We must be clear that we have not yet reached an agreement on the wider economic support package that we require.
The national furlough scheme is inadequate and risks pushing tens of thousands of low paid workers below the national minimum wage, while the direct support to businesses is also less than that offered during the national lockdown.
Yesterday the metro mayor [Rotheram] spoke with the prime minister and this morning attended [Cobra] where he again reiterated these concerns in the strongest terms.
We have been assured by government that they will continue to engage in meaningful talks with us on these matters in the coming days and we intend to hold them to that promise. In the meantime, we are looking at what economic support can be provided locally, while we await further national government support.
That’s all from me for tonight.
My colleague Lucy Campbell is taking over now. She will be covering the press conference at 7pm with Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, and Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser.
Guide to which areas of England are in which alert level
And here are details of which areas are subject to which alert level. (5.49pm.)
The very high alert level (tier 3)
Liverpool city region: Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The high alert level (tier 2)
Cheshire: Cheshire West and Chester and Cheshire East.
Greater Manchester: Manchester, Bolton, Bury, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, Wigan, Salford, Rochdale and Oldham.
Warrington: Warrington.
Derbyshire: High Peak - the wards of: Tintwistle, Padfield, Dinting, St John’s, Old Glossop, Whitfield, Simmondley, Gamesley, Howard Town, Hadfield South, and Hadfield North.
Lancashire: Lancashire, Blackpool, Preston, Blackburn with Darwen, and Burnley.
West Yorkshire: Leeds, Bradford, Kirklees, Calderdale, and Wakefield.
South Yorkshire: Barnsley, Rotherham, Doncaster and Sheffield.
North-east England: Newcastle, South Tyneside, North Tyneside, Gateshead, Sunderland, Durham, and Northumberland.
Tees Valley: Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland, Stockton-on-Tees, Darlington and Hartlepool.
West Midlands: Birmingham, Sandwell, Solihull, Wolverhampton and Walsall.
Leicester: Leicester and Oadby and Wigston.
Nottingham: Nottinghamshire and Nottingham City.
The medium alert level (tier 1)
Everywhere else in England
Updated
No 10 publishes further details on rules for three alert levels
No 10 has just released this guide to the new rules.
Some of the wording is not at all clear. Here is the more detailed text explanation that No 10 has sent that makes a bit more sense.
Rules for places at medium alert level (tier 1)
This is for areas where national restrictions continue to be in place. This means:
All businesses and venues can continue to operate, in a Covid-secure manner, other than those that remain closed in law, such as nightclubs.
Certain businesses selling food or drink on their premises are required to close between 10pm and 5am. Businesses and venues selling food for consumption off the premises can continue to do so after 10pm as long as this is through delivery service, click-and-collect or drive-through.
Schools, universities and places of worship remain open
Weddings and funerals can go ahead with restrictions on the number of attendees
Organised indoor sport and exercise classes can continue to take place, provided the rule of six is followed
People must not meet in groups larger than six, indoors or outdoors
Rules for places at high alert level (tier 2)
This is for areas with a higher level of infections. This means the following additional measures are in place:
People must not meet with anybody outside their household or support bubble in any indoor setting, whether at home or in a public place
People must not meet in a group of more than six outside, including in a garden or other space.
People should aim to reduce the number of journeys they make where possible. If they need to travel, they should walk or cycle where possible, or plan ahead and avoid busy times and routes on public transport.
Rules for places at very high alert level (tier 3)
This is for areas with a very high level of infections. The government will set a baseline of measures for any area in this local alert level. Consultation with local authorities will determine additional measures. The baseline means the below additional measures are in place:
Pubs and bars must close, and can only remain open where they operate as if they were a restaurant — which means serving substantial meals, like a main lunchtime or evening meal. They may only serve alcohol as part of such a meal.
Wedding receptions are not allowed.
People must not meet with anybody outside their household or support bubble in any indoor or outdoor setting, whether at home or in a public space. The rule of six applies in open public spaces like parks and beaches.
People should try to avoid travelling outside the ‘very high’ area they are in, or entering a ‘very high’ area, other than for things like work, education, accessing youth services, to meet caring responsibilities or if they are in transit.
People should avoid staying overnight in another part of the UK if they are resident in a ‘very high’ area, or avoid staying overnight in a ‘very high’ area if they are resident elsewhere
Some of this wording is not particularly clear either. For example, the rule of six already applies to meetings in gardens and parks. But journalists have received a less garbled briefing. And we were told:
In tier 1, the rule of six continues to apply.
In tier 2, mixing with another household indoors is banned, but mixing with them outside is not banned (subject to the rule of six).
In tier 3, mixing with another household is banned in private gardens too (even if there are no more than six of you).
Updated
In the Commons, asked what needs to happen for these local restrictions to be lifted, Boris Johnson says the R number would have to fall below one.
In the Commons Andrea Leadsom, a Conservative, asks Boris Johnson to publish details of why the specific measures are needed in each case. Johnson says the government will do this.
West Midlands mayor Andy Street says he's 'very disappointed' his region in high risk tier 2
Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands (and arguably the most prominent Tory in local government) has said he is “very disappointed” to see his region go into tier 2, the high risk alert level.
He says that regional leaders were led to believe that this would not happen, that it will mean households now being banned from mixing in places like pubs, that the evidence does not support this and that the hospitality industry will suffer as a result.
He also says that the West Midlands, with an average infection rate of 123 people per 100,000, is being treated the same as Manchester, with 550 infections were 100,000 people.
He says the decision should be reviewed “as soon as possible”.
Very disappointed that the new Covid tier 2 means stricter measures for the hospitality industry in the West Mids, which will now need immediate financial support. My reaction to the changes 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/hkJ6X39m3l
— Andy Street (@andy4wm) October 12, 2020
To be clear, these new restrictions apply to Birmingham, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall, and Wolverhampton. Dudley and Coventry will be in tier one with no new additional restrictions.
— Andy Street (@andy4wm) October 12, 2020
Updated
In the Commons Labour’s Yvette Cooper called on Boris Johnson to “come back from the moon and get back to what’s happening on planet Earth” as she raised concerns over testing. She said:
Just a month ago, the PM described his moonshot plan where there were going to be millions of tests done and returned every day and he said if everything comes together, it may be possible even for sectors like theatres to have life much closer to normal before Christmas.
Families now are feeling like a normal Christmas is going to be further away [than] ever and local health officials in our area have said people are waiting six days, not a day, to get their test results. If we come back from the moon and get back to what’s happening on planet Earth, when will he have enough testing capacity in place so my constituents can get their results in 24 hours?
Johnson said that testing capacity had gone up 28% in the last month, and that by the end of the month the system would be able to process 500,000 tests a day.
Updated
9,000 students in England have Covid, MPs told
Nine thousand students in England currently have Covid and 68 universities are dealing with outbreaks, the universities minister has said.
Michelle Donelan said the figure of 9,000 came from data supplied by universities and was a cumulative figure over seven days, against a total student population of around 2 million.
From next week, she said, the Department for Education would be working with the Office for Students on a new, more transparent data regime to provide figures.
Speaking during education questions in the Commons, Donelan also warned higher education institutions against trying to make a profit by charging self-isolating students £18 a day for food parcels. Donelan said she had already spoken to “many” universities on this issue, and warned she would be writing to follow up.
Students who are trapped in their halls of residence have complained about the cost and quality of the food provided by their universities, with some charged hundreds of pounds for meal packages including baked beans and instant noodles.
More than 2,500 students at Lancaster University have signed a petition urging the university to stop “profiting from self-isolating students” who are paying £17.95 a day for meals the students estimate cost £4.
Donelan told MPs:
No university should seek to profit from students self-isolating, and reported charges of £18 a day for food parcels are quite simply outrageous.
Students self-isolating in catered halls should receive free food whilst other students should receive food which is either free - like many including Sheffield Hallam and Edge Hill are doing - or at a price which can be afforded within a student’s budget.
I have spoken to many universities on this and I am also writing to make the point.
Updated
Figures posted on the University of Nottingham’s website showed 1,510 of its students had been diagnosed with active cases of Covid-19 during the week ending last Friday, PA Media reports. The figures included 667 students in private accommodation, 523 others living in halls of residence and 310 in purpose-built student accommodation.
Covid hospital patient numbers in England up 40% over last week, latest figures show
The figures on the UK government’s dashboard also show that there are now 3,665 patients in hospital in England with coronavirus.
That is 1,072 more than this time last week (2,593) - a 40% increase.
Updated
UK records 13,972 new cases and 50 further deaths
The UK government has updated its coronavirus dashboard. Here are the key headline figures.
- The UK has recorded 13,972 new cases. That is higher than yesterday (12,872) and higher than the figure for this time last week (12,594), but lower than some days last week.
- The UK has recorded 50 further deaths. That is 15 fewer than yesterday.
The Liverpool Chamber of Commerce chief executive, Paul Cherpeau, said businesses across the city were “bewildered, frustrated and angry” by the new restrictions. He said:
A week of speculation and rumour has badly damaged confidence. Businesses need to understand the clear evidence for the restrictions that are now being imposed - as many have worked so hard to become Covid safe.
Whilst our visitor economy will bear the brunt of these new restrictions, the percolating effect on supply chains is hugely concerning, in addition to the psychological impact upon our citizens, business owners and investors.
Updated
Vaccine 'cannot be taken for granted', says Johnson
In response to a question from the Tory MP Steve Baker, Johnson said that the development of a vaccine “cannot be taken for granted”. He says after 20 years there is still no vaccine for Sars.
UPDATE: Here is Johnson’s quote.
Alas, I can’t give him a date by which I can promise confidently that we will have a vaccine. There are some very hopeful signs not least from the Oxford AstraZeneca trials that are being conducted.
But, as he knows, Sars took place 18 years ago, we still don’t have a vaccine for Sars. I don’t wish to depress him, but we must be realistic about this.
There is a good chance of a vaccine, but it cannot be taken for granted.
Updated
'Not to act would be unforgivable' - Johnson suggests other areas should be entering strictest tier 3
Here is the extract from Boris Johnson’s opening statement where he set out the new system.
On the new three-tier system
We will now simplify and standardise our local rules by introducing a three-tiered system of local Covid alert levels in England - set at medium, high, and very high.
The “medium” alert level, which will cover most of the country, and will consist of the current national measures. This includes the rule of six and the closure of hospitality at 10pm.
The “high” alert level reflects the interventions in many local areas at the moment. This primarily aims to reduce household to household transmission, by preventing all mixing between different households or support bubbles indoors. In these areas, the rule of six will continue to apply outdoors, where it is harder for the virus to spread, in public spaces as well as private gardens.
Most areas which are already subject to local restrictions will automatically move into the “high” alert level. As a result of rising infection rates, Nottinghamshire, east and west Cheshire and a small area of High Peak will also move into the “high” alert level.
The “very high” alert level will apply where transmission rates are rising most rapidly and where the NHS could soon be under unbearable pressure without further restrictions.
In these areas the government will set a baseline of prohibiting social mixing indoors and in private gardens and, I’m sorry to say, closing pubs and bars.
We want to create the maximum possible local consensus behind this more severe local action, so in each area, we will work with local government leaders on the additional measures which should be taken. This could lead to further restrictions on the hospitality, leisure, entertainment or personal care sectors. But retail, schools and universities will remain open.
On financial support for local authorities
As [Rishi Sunak] has set out, the government will expand its unprecedented economic support to assist those affected by these decisions, extending our job support scheme to cover two-thirds of the wages of those in any business that is required to close, and providing those businesses with a cash grant of up to £3,000 a month, instead of £1,500 every three weeks.
We will also provide local authorities across England with around £1bn of new financial support, on top of our £3.6bn towns fund.
And for very high areas, we will give further financial support for local test and trace, and local enforcement and assistance from the armed forces – not for enforcement but rather to support local services, if desired in the local area.
On the tier 3 plans for Merseyside
I can report that we have been able to reach agreement with leaders in Merseyside. Local authorities in the Liverpool city region will move into the “very high” alert level from Wednesday.
In addition to the baseline I have outlined, that is as well as pubs and bars, in Merseyside gyms and leisure centres, betting shops, adult gaming centres and casinos will also close.
On how other areas might need to enter tier 3
Engagement with other leaders in the north-west, the north-east and Yorkshire and Humber is continuing.
I know how difficult this is – they like, like everyone in the house, us are grappling with very real dilemmas - but we cannot let the NHS fall over when lives are at stake.
So let me repeat the offer that we are making to those local authorities – work with us on these difficult but necessary measures in the areas that are rated very high areas, in return for: more support for local test and trace, more funding for local enforcement, the offer of help from the armed services, the job support scheme as announced by the chancellor.
I believe not to act would be unforgivable, so I hope that rapid progress can be made in the coming days.
On when the rules take effect
Regulations for all three Covid local alert levels are being laid today. They will be debated and voted on tomorrow, before coming into force on Wednesday.
We will also keep these measures under constant review, including a four-week sunset clause for interventions in “very high” areas.
A postcode search on gov.uk, as well as the NHS Covid-19 app, will show which local alert level applies in each area and we are also publishing updated guidance to explain what the Covid alert levels mean for those who are clinically extremely vulnerable.
Updated
Philip Davies, a Conservative, says Johnson has been popular because of his faith in the common sense of the British people. He should give people health advice and do the same again, he says. He says that is what being a Conservative is all about.
Johnson agrees. He says people should follow the health advice.
(He is - wilfully, it seems - ignoring the point of Davies’s question. Davies was arguing against local lockdowns.)
Jeremy Hunt, the chair of the Commons health committee, says the evidence from China suggests early, localised interventions work best.
Johnson welcomes the comment. He says he hopes local authorities will agree to go into tier 3 when necessary.
Updated
Councils in England to get an extra £1bn to help tackle crisis, says Johnson
In his statement Boris Johnson said “new financial support” worth around £1bn would be made available to local authorities in England. He said:
For very high areas, we will give further financial support for local test and trace and local enforcement - and assistance from the armed forces, not for enforcement but rather to support local services if desired in the local area.
Updated
Johnson is responding to Starmer.
He says Labour used to support the government. Now Starmer has changed tack. But Starmer won’t say what he would do, Johnson says. And he says Starmer is not supporting the local leaders who support these measures.
Updated
Starmer says he's 'deeply sceptical' PM's measures will work
Sir Keir Starmer is responding for Labour.
He says he is not convinced that the PM has a strategy to deal with the disease.
Nobody should be under any illusion about where this is heading, or of the need for decisive action.
The question today is whether the restrictions announced by the prime minister can bring the country back from the brink, whether they can regain control of the virus and provide the support and confidence that local businesses and communities need. That is how high the stakes now are.
So we will consider the package, we will look at the small print of the prime minister’s statement, we will discuss them with local mayors, councillors and leaders in the areas most affected and we’ll scrutinise the economic package that sits alongside them.
But I have to say to the prime minister, I am now deeply sceptical that the government has actually got a plan to get control of this virus, to protect jobs or retain public trust.
Public confidence has been eroded, he says.
Why does he think these measures will get the virus under control?
Will local leaders get control of test and trace?
And does he accept local businesses need more support?
He says he hopes the measures will work. But MPs will be “deeply sceptical” whether they can.
Updated
Johnson explains new rules
Johnson says R is between 1.2 and 1.5. But its natural level is between 2.7 and 3. So it is already being suppressed.
But we need to go further, he says.
He says local rules are now hard to follow, and hard to enforce.
So they will be simplified, he says.
There will be three levels.
The medium level [tier 1] will cover most of England. It will feature the current rules - the rule of six and 10pm closing for pubs.
The high alert level [tier 2] will cover most areas under current restrictions. He says people here will not be able to mix with other households indoors. Nottinghamshire, east and west Cheshire and a small area of High Peak will be included.
The very high alert level [tier 3] will have a baseline of measures. In these places household mixing will be banned, and all pubs and bars will be closed.
Johnson says the government has agreed with the Liverpool city region that it will go into tier 3. As well as the baseline, gyms, leisure centres, betting shops, adult gaming centres and casinos will be closed.
Updated
Johnson says just letting the virus spread amongst the young is not an option either.
It would spread with such velocity it would affect older people.
And some young people would be badly affected, he says.
Boris Johnson speaking in the Commons
Boris Johnson is speaking now.
There are more people in hospital than when we went into lockdown on 23 March, and deaths are rising, he says.
But he says he does not accept that we should have another full lockdown.
On the other hand, some argue that the patience of the public is exhausted, and that we should abandon restrictions and let the disease take its course.
But, he says, the “bleak mathematics” of that would lead to many deaths, and the NHS being overwhelmed.
Updated
And Birmingham will be in tier 2 too, says the Birmingham Edgbaston MP Preet Kaur Gill.
Just learnt on the briefing call with @MattHancock that Birmingham will be in Tier 2 on the new alert system.
— Preet Kaur Gill MP (@PreetKGillMP) October 12, 2020
More than 45 minutes notice for the call would be appreciated next time though Matt!
From Sky’s Aubrey Allegretti
Warrington heading into coronavirus Tier 2, multiple sources say.
— Aubrey Allegretti (@breeallegretti) October 12, 2020
Person on the government briefing call tells me people soon *will* be allowed to meet someone they don't live with outside in their garden.
That's currently not allowed there.
Boris Johnson's Commons statement
Boris Johnson will be making his Commons statement about the new three-tier local lockdown regime for England shortly.
In Northern Ireland 877 more coronavirus cases have been recorded, and three further deaths. The details are here.
A week ago today the Department of Health in Northern Ireland recorded just 616 new cases, and no deaths.
Here is another MP complaining about the government briefing operations about the new local lockdown rules. Kate Osborne is the Labour MP for Jarrow.
Along with other MPs in the region, I have just received an email from a Government Minister inviting me to a meeting to discuss further restrictions in the North East with just 7 minutes notice. Disgraceful. Do they even know what they’re doing?! 🤔 pic.twitter.com/Rbxa3WNPjI
— Kate Osborne MP (@KateOsborneMP) October 12, 2020
Public Health Wales has recorded 487 new coronavirus cases and four further deaths. The details are here.
The number of cases is marginally up on yesterday (467) but well down on the total for last Monday (596).
And the number of deaths is two more than yesterday, and four more than a week ago today (when none were recorded.)
London likely to start on tier 1, current level of restrictions, but could move to tier 2 soon
London is likely to be placed at the lowest of the government’s new three-tier coronavirus alert level, it is understood, but with the expectations it could be moved to the middle tier very soon.
The news about which areas will be in which tier should follow soon after Boris Johnson formally announces the much-briefed new system to the Commons this afternoon, with some local authority leaders already told.
It is understood that officials in London anticipate being put on the lowest level, known as medium, at first, but that it could be moved to the next level, high, potentially within days.
The rules on what activities will or will not be allowed under each tier will also be announced by Johnson.
London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, warned last week that rising infection rates meant it was “inevitable” that the capital would soon see tougher restrictions.
South Yorkshire to be in tier 2, local leaders told
South Yorkshire will be in tier 2, according to Dan Jarvis, the Labour MP and mayor of Sheffield city region.
Just spoken to @MattHancock who confirmed South #Yorkshire will be in Tier 2.
— Mayor Dan Jarvis (@SCR_Mayor) October 12, 2020
We cannot afford this without additional support - otherwise we will languish in local restrictions with no clear way out. We've put a plan to Govt and are awaiting more details. Will update asap. https://t.co/IAyl4cj5eS
NHS England has recorded 36 further coronavirus hospital deaths. There were 14 deaths in the north-west, 14 in the north-east and Yorkshire, three in London, two in the Midlands, two in the east of England, one in the south-east and none in the south-west. The details are here.
Last Monday 10 deaths were recorded.
Updated
Greater Manchester also to be in tier 2
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, has welcomed the news that Greater Manchester will be placed in tier 2.
This is the right decision & we’re glad the Government has listened.
— Andy Burnham (@AndyBurnhamGM) October 12, 2020
But any restrictions will lead to loss of trade for businesses & challenges for councils.
The PM must give all areas under restrictions full financial support.
Anything less will see them levelled down. https://t.co/sie3DuVAJw
Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, has described as “crass” an advert for a government reskilling campaign suggesting ballet dancers should retrain as IT experts.
To those tweeting re #Fatima
— Oliver Dowden (@OliverDowden) October 12, 2020
This is not something from @DCMS & I agree it was crass
This was a partner campaign encouraging people from all walks of life to think about a career in cyber security
I want to save jobs in the arts which is why we are investing £1.57bn
Here is one of the many people in the arts world who has been angrily tweeting about it.
This is unbelievable. The government is throwing the arts under a bus.#Fatima pic.twitter.com/PuCvV3maMJ
— Fatboy Slim (@FatboySlim) October 12, 2020
Updated
The Labour MP for Wigan (and shadow foreign secretary) Lisa Nandy thinks she may have been left out of a briefing for Greater Manchester MPs because officials did not know where her constituency was.
Just learnt Greater Manchester will be placed into tier 2 restrictions via twitter. Apparently there was a government briefing for GM MPs but I can’t provide details because I wasn’t invited. I suspect this is because they don’t know where Wigan is. What an absolute shambles
— Lisa Nandy (@lisanandy) October 12, 2020
UPDATE: From my colleague Helen Pidd
This is shabby - though tbf many people in Wigan are still in denial about having a Greater Manchester address, despite it not being in Lancashire since 1974 https://t.co/ICv8oLjzZA
— Helen Pidd (@helenpidd) October 12, 2020
Updated
Plaid Cymru says Wales should ban visitors from high-Covid areas of England immediately
The Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price, has called on the Welsh government to act at once to ban people from travelling from high infection areas in England into Wales.
Welsh ministers have said they are disappointed that Boris Johnson has not stopped people travelling out of Covid-19 hotspots and are considering their next steps. Price said:
I would be more than disappointed, I’m livid at the attitude of the prime minister.
Previously Mark Drakeford [the Welsh first minister] has said there was not any evidence of this kind of infection from people travelling from over the border.
Now, we heard from health minister Vaughan Gething for the first time that there is actual evidence that has been identified of transmission that has happened as a result of people coming from high infection areas of England into Wales.
We’re beyond the point of ‘consideration’ – the Welsh government needs to act today.
Updated
Rules for care home visits in Scotland to be eased
Care homes visits in Scotland will be extended indoors and in some cases hand-holding will be allowed, with PPE, the Scottish government’s health secretary, Jeane Freeman, told the Scottish government briefing. The changes she announced to guidelines will no doubt be welcomed by relatives who have been lobbying for relaxations to the rules for some months.
As we reported last week, anxious relatives have shared heart-breaking stories of separation from loved ones - in particular about the toll that prolonged isolation is taking on those with dementia - who relied on daily stimulation from visitors.
Updated
In his press conference earlier Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, the deputy chief medical officer for England, said coronavirus cases were higher in the north of England now because they were higher there than in the south of England when England came out of lockdown in the summer. (See 11.44am.) Responding to a journalist, Van-Tam said:
You have worried me now that I might have presented a bi-polar picture that Covid-19 is a problem in the north and not a problem in the south.
On the contrary, the epidemic this time has clearly picked up pace in the north of England earlier than it did in the first wave and that almost certainly relates to the fact the disease levels in the north, and certainly in the north-west, never dropped as far in the summer as they did in the south.
Andy Burnham, who said at the time that lockdown measures were being eased too soon, has taken this as vindication.
I am grateful to the Deputy CMO for recognising this point. Too many rush to blame the public in the North without understanding this. https://t.co/mzvjxoNrFA pic.twitter.com/leOmW8ORTu
— Andy Burnham (@AndyBurnhamGM) October 12, 2020
Nick Forbes, the Labour mayor of Newcastle city council, has posted a thread on Twitter about the north-east of England being put in tier 2 - and spared the more restriction tier 3 lockdown measures. (See 1.13pm.) It starts here.
I'm pleased that, for now, it's unlikely any further restrictions will apply in the North East. We need a period of stability and consistent rules, so everyone is clear what we all need to do.
— Nick Forbes (@nick_forbes) October 12, 2020
Here is the full announcement from the Department for Education about GCSEs and A levels in England being delayed next summer to allow more time for catch-up teaching. (See 12.57pm.)
A man was fined £10,000 after police found 80 guests at a wedding party, PA Media reports. Essex police said officers received reports of the large gathering at Ariana Gardens in Margaretting at around 4.15pm on Sunday. The venue is described on its website as “Essex’s most magical and enchanting wedding venue”. When officers arrived they found approximately 80 guests enjoying a sit-down dinner.
Essex police’s assistant chief constable, Andy Prophet, said:
This wedding party was a blatant breach of the current restrictions which only allows for 15 people to be present at a wedding.
Updated
PM to announce £28m to support tier 3 areas with tightest restrictions, Merseyside MPs told
Boris Johnson will announce a £28m package of support for areas with the strictest coronavirus restrictions, MPs in Merseyside have been told.
This will include £14m for clinically vulnerable people and to support enforcement action, and a further £14m to bolster local test and trace systems.
It is further understood that “food-based pubs” will be allowed to stay open in areas with the tightest restrictions – while bars and pubs that do not serve substantial food will have to close.
This is likely to lead to significant confusion given the vast amount of pubs that do serve food, such as Wetherspoons venues which appear to be allowed to remain open under the new rules.
MPs were told that they would get a vote on whether to extend the measures every four weeks.
A hospital which was forced to stop accepting emergency admissions in July after a Covid outbreak traced back to a physical training session described by a doctor as a “super-spreading event”, has been rated inadequate by the care regulator.
The Guardian revealed in July that the A&E closure at Hillingdon hospital, in Boris Johnson’s constituency, was, according to an inquiry, caused by nurses not wearing face masks or staying 2 metres apart at a training session on 30 June, where a nurse with coronavirus unwittingly infected 16 others.
In an internal email, the hospital’s chief executive, Sarah Tedford, blamed staff for the outbreak despite being pictured herself without a face mask while at the hospital, the Guardian also revealed.
On 17 August, Tedford announced she was resigning, citing “family reasons”.
Today, the Care Quality Commission said that its inspectors visited the hospital at the beginning of August and rated it inadequate overall. The areas where it was found to be inadequate were specifically safety and leadership respectively.
It ordered the hospital to improve infection prevention for medical staff, monitor and ensure that they all wear PPE correctly at all times and ensure patients were socially distanced while queuing for assessment at the urgent treatment centre.
Updated
Ministers in Northern Ireland consider tighter restrictions
In Northern Ireland Robin Swann, the health minister, has confirmed that a paper from the chief medical officer, Dr Michael McBride, and the chief scientific adviser, Prof Ian Young, was presented to the first and deputy first minsters last night. It proposes further restrictions for Northern Ireland.
Swann told the Northern Ireland assembly:
I can confirm that I submitted a paper yesterday evening to the first minister and deputy first minister spelling out the detailed advice from the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser. That paper recommends decisive action be urgently taken to save lives, prevent the health service being overwhelmed and protect non-Covid services to the greatest extent possible.
The paper reportedly proposes tighter measures lasting four to six weeks.
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader at Westminster, told BBC Radio Ulster’s Nolan Show that he would “need to be convinced” something like this was justified. He said:
A six-week full lockdown, back to where we were last March, would I think take us way, way ahead of anywhere else.
And the rate across Northern Ireland, I would need to be convinced that such measures at the moment are appropriate for all of Northern Ireland.
I’d be wanting to know why we’re abandoning the policy of focusing in on the areas where the infection rates are highest.
Politicians in Greater Manchester - both MPs and local leaders - have been very vocal in opposing the closure of hospitality businesses as part of the imminent tightening of lockdown measures. That’s because they do not accept that most of local infections derive from pubs, cafes and restaurants.
Lucy Powell, the MP for Manchester Central, says that data from local test and trace suggests just 9% of recent Covid infections in Manchester came from hospitality settings. “The vast majority of infections here happen in households, which includes student halls of residence,” she said.
In nearby Stockport, that figure is just 2%, according to William Wragg, the local Conservative MP for Hazel Grove.
Powell was scathing about a slide shown to northern MPs last week by a cabinet office official. The slide, which carried the capitalised health warning “THIS DATA IS UNPUBLISHED, EARLY ANALYSIS”, suggested that hospitality accounted for 30% of common exposure settings (including workers in such venues).
“Even the guy presenting that slide didn’t really buy it,” said Powell. She called on the government to produce evidence to prove that hospitality is a significant source of infections. She said:
Government and scientists still haven’t produced this evidence. The big problem for them is local leaders have all the same data (in fact better data for their areas) and they know hospitality settings make up a very small proportion of infection transmission.
Closing Greater Manchester’s hospitality industry would affect thousands of businesses. According to research from Altus Group, in Greater Manchester there are 1,809 pubs, 1,174 restaurants, 143 wine bars, 258 hotels and guest houses, 12 casinos and gambling clubs, 277 betting offices, 22 cinemas and 308 gyms.
North-east of England to be in tier 2, council leaders told, so pubs and restaurants stay open
Pubs, bars and restaurants will be allowed to remain open in the north-east of England under the new restrictions due to be announced by Boris Johnson this afternoon.
The Guardian has learned that council leaders in the north-east were told by the communities secretary, Robert Jenrick, and Sir Eddie Lister, one of the prime minister’s closest aides, that they will be in the tier 2 restrictions due to be outlined later.
Tier 2 restrictions mean it will be unlawful for two households to meet in any indoor setting, including pubs and restaurants, and people will be advised to use public transport in only exceptional cases.
The prime minister is expected to announce significant new powers for local authorities to take enforcement action against businesses that are not Covid compliant. A new “public health provision” will be brought into force allowing environmental health officers to quickly close premises - such as pubs and bars - that are not sticking to the rules.
However, some council leaders in the north-east were left disappointed after being told there would not be any new financial support for areas in tier 2. One local leader on the call said:
It was almost like we were being bribed to go into tier 3 because that’s where all the money is.
At this stage, it is thought that Merseyside will be the only place in England where the stricter tier 3 measures will apply – meaning pubs and bars have to close.
However, this has yet to be confirmed and much has already changed in the past 72 hours. MPs in other parts of the north were this lunchtime being briefed on what to expect in their areas.
Welsh government edges closer to imposing travel ban on visitors from high-Covid areas of England
The Welsh government looks likely to introduce regulations to stop people travelling from Covid hotspots in England travelling to Wales.
Welsh health minister Vaughan Gething said legal advice on how to effectively shut the border to some people had been taken.
He said he was “deeply disappointed” that Boris Johnson had not stopped people from travelling out of English hotspot areas.
Speaking at a press conference in Cardiff, Gething said he would meet with the first minister, Mark Drakeford, to discuss the next move later today.
He said there had been examples when Covid had been brought into Wales from England.
Gething said that Covid was “waking up for the winter” and infections could reach the same level as the spring peak in the next couple of weeks. He said the R number was 1.37 in Wales and 330 people were in hospital with Covid-19 – up by 100 from last week.
Gething said more measures were being considered to combat the virus including the same sort of tiered system that is being introduced in England. He said a national lockdown or the sort of “firebreak” that had been launched in Scotland were also being considered. Gething said this was a “particularly important week”.
In a statement the Welsh government said:
The first minister attended a Cobra meeting earlier today chaired by the prime minister, to discuss the proposed introduction of a ‘tiered’ system of local restrictions in England.
The first minister expressed deep disappointment at the inadequate proposals for travel restrictions in high infection areas in England, and said these would be met with great dismay in many parts of Wales where infection rates are lower.
He also requested greater clarity on the metrics for placing areas into each tier, and agreed with other devolved leaders that the Treasury’s proposals for financial support, while welcome, did not go far enough in protecting the lowest paid workers.
Updated
Gavin Williamson, the education secretary for England, is going to delay GCSEs and A levels for three weeks next summer to allow more time for catch-up teaching, Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall reports.
NEW: Gavin Williamson says that he will delay GCSEs and A-levels by 3 weeks next summer: “to give students more time to prepare and catch up on education lost due to Covid.”
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) October 12, 2020
Worth remembering, this cohort haven’t lost three weeks- they’ve lost six months of in school learning...
In Scotland National 5 exams, the equivalent of GCSEs, have already been cancelled for next summer. Highers and advanced highers are going ahead, but slightly later than usual.
Nicola Sturgeon said the majority of new cases were in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, where the health board confirmed that a ward at Scotland’s flagship super-hospital, the Queen Elizabeth University hospital in Glasgow, has been closed to new admissions following “a number of positive cases”.
Following the first weekend of the temporary national shutdown of indoor drinking, Sturgeon said that early anecdotal evidence from the police was that compliance has been good.
Sturgeon said that she had come from a Cobra meeting with the prime minister and leaders of other devolved governments. The main topic was the three-tier system of alerts being brought in for England. She said that the Scottish government intends “to develop our own tiering framework and take that to parliament after the October recess”. This will coincide with the ending of the temporary hospitality restrictions, and she said that she would be “aiming for alignment” with the four nations.
It is worth noting that Sturgeon refers to the current restrictions – which are particularly tough in the central belt – as “reset restrictions”. There was consternation on Sunday after cabinet secretary for tourism, Fergus Ewing, warned that there was no guarantee that pubs and restaurants in central Scotland would reopen after the 16-day shutdown.
Updated
Scotland now has almost 500 coronavirus patients in hospital, Sturgeon reveals
At the start of her briefing Nicola Sturgeon also announced the latest coronavirus figures for Scotland.
She said 961 people had tested positive. That was 17.1% of people getting a test.
Yesterday the equivalent figures were 956 and 14.9%. For much of last week the daily number of people testing positive was over 1,000.
NS: "359 of the cases are in Greater Glasgow & Clyde, 244 in Lanarkshire, 112 in Lothian and 88 in Ayrshire & Arran. The remaining cases are spread across 8 other health board areas. The only health boards without cases today are Orkney and Shetland."
— The SNP (@theSNP) October 12, 2020
Sturgeon said that 487 patients were in hospital with coronavirus in Scotland, up 38 on yesterday, and 36 people were in intensive care, up one from yesterday.
These hospital figures are the highest so far in Scotland this autumn.
And Sturgeon also said six further deaths had been registered since Friday, taking the total to 2,550.
Updated
A hundred of Scotland’s top hoteliers have written to the Scottish government warning that thousands of jobs will be lost without a change in the new rules which came into force last Friday evening for two weeks.
In a letter printed in the Scotsman, the signatories call on hotels to be allowed to serve alcohol to guests, following the nationwide crackdown on indoor drinking announced by first minister Nicola Sturgeon last week.
There was also anger from the hospitality sector on Sunday after the cabinet secretary for tourism, Fergus Ewing, warned that there was no guarantee that pubs and restaurants in central Scotland would reopen after the 16-day shutdown.
Businesses have already complained about confusion around the original restrictions and what sorts of premises they applied to after a last-minute exemption for cafes led to uncertainty about the difference between a cafe and a restaurant.
Updated
Sturgeon says Scotland to get its own tiering system - but aligned to England's 'as closely as possible'
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is giving her daily briefing now.
She says she has been participating in a UK government Cobra meeting this morning. She says she was given details of the three-tier system being introduced for England.
The Scottish government will take the plans away and look at them, she says.
She says Scotland will introduce its own tiering system for when the current 16-day restrictions on pubs and restaurants end.
She says at a strategic level it will make sense to align the Scottish system “as closely as possible” with what is happening in the rest of the UK.
But she says Scotland will be able to decide for itself what rules apply where.
Van-Tam's briefing - Summary
Here are the main points from Prof Jonathan Van-Tam’s briefing.
- Van-Tam, the deputy chief medical officer for England, insisted that the coronavirus surge was a “nationwide phenomenon”. It was not just limited to the north of England, he said. Rates were increasing across the UK. (See 11.10am and 11.44am.)
- He said further deaths were inevitable because of the rising cases already recorded. He said:
The hospital admissions we have now actually relate to a time when there fewer cases of Covid-19. Already, with the cases that we know about, we have baked in additional hospital admissions and sadly we also have baked in additional deaths that are now consequent upon infections that have already happened.
- Prof Stephen Powis, the medical director of NHS England, said three Nightingale hospitals were being placed on standby to take patients. He said:
We have asked the Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate to prepare for this next phase. They are being asked to mobilise over the next few weeks to be ready to accept patients if necessary.
Other Nightingale hospitals might also be placed on standby, he said. In the spring seven emergency Nightingale hospitals were equipped in England to be ready to take coronavirus patients, but largely they were not used. In the early summer they were either mothballed, or used for other purposes.
- Powis said the NHS was introducing regular testing for staff in high-risk areas even when they don’t have symptoms.
- Van-Tam implicitly backed plans to close pubs in places with very high rates of infection. This has been contentious because critics of the plans says there is no medical evidence to justify this policy. Asked about the scientific evidence to justify hospitality closures, Van-Tam said he did not want to pre-empt what the PM might say. But he quoted Japanese government advice saying people should avoid the three-Cs: closed spaces, crowded places and close contact. Van-Tam said he would add two other risk factors: the duration you spend in a place, and the volume at which you talk. All of which sounded like a roundabout way of saying pubs pose a risk.
Jonathan Van-Tam highlights the 'three c's' messaging put out by Japan's government. Avoid: closed spaces, crowded places, close contact.
— Harry Horton (@harry_horton) October 12, 2020
He adds two more:
D - duration spent in an area
V - volume - how loud you talk pic.twitter.com/vbY9PZrwH5
- Van-Tam played down the impact of opening schools on the resurgence of the virus. He said:
If you salami slice the infection data very carefully across the school age bands, what you actually see is very low rates of increase in infection up to around the age of 16 and then picking up a bit in the 17-18-year-olds as we drift into that age bracket ... of really quite intense transmission.
The evidence that there is significant transmission in schools is not really borne out by the increased infection rates and indeed we already know that children are not drivers of infection and spread in the community in the same way we know they are for influenza, for example.
Updated
Margaret Ferrier – the suspended SNP MP who travelled by train from London to Glasgow after a positive diagnosis of coronavirus - claims that senior SNP officials drafted her statement apologising for her rule breaches and ordered her to refer herself to the police.
Ferrier told the Sun that she felt railroaded into releasing the statement by party officials and was given just five minutes to warn family and friends that it was being released. She said:
I just felt it was very pushy. You’ve just been told you have Covid. You’re stressed, with a lot of things going through your mind. You’re wanting somebody to help you. I said at that point ‘hang on a minute — as soon as this goes out am I going to be bombarded with abuse?’ They were not considering the fact that I had only been diagnosed with Covid and I don’t know how that’s going to affect my mental state. It just went crazy. I still haven’t looked at Twitter, but I have heard about it.
Yesterday, Ferrier told the Sun on Sunday that she “panicked” after receiving the positive test result in her Westminster office after speaking in the Commons, and insisted that she would not resign, despite cross-party calls for her to step down.
Q: What new evidence emerged over the weekend that changed your view of the spread. (See 11.10am.)
Van-Tam says he does not want to imply Covid is a problem in the north but not in the south.
He says it has picked up faster in the north. But that is because it never dropped so much in the north.
Now all areas of England are showing rates of Covid picking up. See 11.10am.
He says the spread of coronavirus is a “nationwide phenomenon”.
Q: Aren’t you already testing NHS staff?
Powis says the NHS has been testing staff with symptoms, and staff in places where there have been infections.
But it is going to start testing asymptomatic staff more extensively. It won’t just be the health staff, he says. Porters and others can be affected. And he says they want to extend this testing to other health staff, like GPs, he says.
And that’s it. The briefing is over.
Q: Are we in a better or worse position that you expected us to be at this stage? And will more Nightingale hospitals be needed?
Powis says we are in a better position than we were in March and April. For example, having dexamethasone makes a big difference. Doctors have better knowledge about when to use ventilation. And they have been preparing for winter.
But R is above one. That means infections will continue to rise.
The key thing is to keep community transmission under control, he says.
On the Nightingale hospitals, he says some have been asked to go on to a higher state of readiness. (See 11.22am.) That will happen in other areas if needed, he says.
Q: Test and trace was meant to avoid the need for local lockdowns. Has it failed?
Van-Tam says it is always hard to build a system and run it at the same time.
And test and trace will always be more challenging as the number of infections picks up.
We would be in a worse position without it, he says.
Updated
Van-Tam is now taking questions.
(Medical and health specialists have been invited to ask questions.)
Q: [From Fergus Walsh from the BBC] Will non-Covid treatments have to be suspended?
Powis says during the first wave operations were cancelled. He says this time they will do as much as they can to avoid that. In different areas different approaches will be used. Private hospitals, and Nightingale hospitals, will be used.
But the key thing is to control infection in the community, he says.
Q: Is there scientific evidence that shutting bars will slow transmission?
Van-Tam says it would not be right to pre-empt what the PM will announce later.
But he says we know the virus thrives on human contact.
He refers to the Japanese advice about the three Cs: closed spaces, crowded spaces and close contact are all factors that help the virus.
He says he would add noise too, because it makes people shout.
Jane Eddleston, an intensive care consultant from the Manchester Royal Infirmary, is speaking now.
The north-west has about 40% of all Covid cases at the moment and this is proving very challenging for us.
Within Greater Manchester, we have seen a threefold increase in the number of patients admitted to intensive care in the last five weeks and an eightfold increase in the number of patients admitted to our hospitals.
The situation at the moment is that 30% of our critical care beds are taken up with patients with Covid and this is starting to impact on the services we provide for other patients.
Some patients need to go on ventilation soon after being admitted. It is a very serious virus, she says.
Updated
Powis says we have to tackle the increase in Covid infections so that the NHS is still able to treat other patients.
The final slide show how long it takes on average to move from one stage of Covid to another.
Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate on standby to take patients
Powis says hospitals are better placed to treat Covid patients than in the spring.
But new measures are being introduced.
First, there will be regular testing for NHS staff in high-risk areas - even if they do not have symptoms.
Second, the NHS is putting the Nightingale hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate on standby to open for patients.
This shows hospital admissions by age.
And here are the figures for the
Prof Stephen Powis, the national medical director for NHS England, is speaking now.
He says there are more patients in hospital with Covid than in March when the nationwide restrictions were imposed.
This chart shows how hospital admissions are going up.
And this chart shows hospital admissions by region.
This chart is similar, but just relates to the over-60s.
And this chart shows how, although infections have been highest amongst the young, infections spread up the age bands.
Van-Tam said:
You will see that the infection rate was initially highest in the 16-29-year-olds.
And that, as you move to the right just gets hotter and hotter but as it does so you can see the incremental creep of the infection into the next age band up, 30-44, followed two or three weeks later by a creep-up again into the 45-59s, and you can now see that the 60+ are now heating up on that chart.
The north-west experienced all of this first and my understanding is that pattern is likely to be followed - you can see it in the north-east and you can see it in Yorkshire and the Humber just beginning but at an earlier stage.
Updated
Van-Tam says Covid surge spread to south of England
This chart shows weekly cases, on the left, and rate of change, on the right.
The darker the colours, the worse it is, Van-Tam says.
He says this graph is new. A similar one at the end of last week showed less Covid spread in the south of England. The situation has changed in recent days, he says. He says that’s worrying.
Van-Tam says rise in Covid cases means death rates will inevitably rise
Van-Tam is starting his briefing now.
He is showing slides.
The first shows case numbers. He says more cases are being recorded now than in the spring because there is more testing.
But the graphs do show the latest peak, he says.
He says, as patients become ill with Covid-19, they don’t immediately go into hospital. And they don’t die when they arrive in hospital.
There is a lag between cases and deaths, he says.
He says, based on this curve, hospital admissions now are related to infections about three weeks ago.
He says, already with the cases that we know about, extra hospital admissions and deaths are “baked in”.
- Van-Tam says rise in Covid cases means death rates will inevitably rise.
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Van-Tam's Covid briefing
Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, the deputy chief medical officer for England, is about to hold a briefing on the latest coronavirus statistics. It is due to be carried live by the 24-hour news broadcasters.
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Starmer refuses to condemn police investigation into Darren Grimes over Starkey interview
Here are the main points from Sir Keir Starmer’s LBC phone-in.
- Starmer said the PM has to explain this afternoon who areas subject to local lockdowns can get out of them. He also said he wanted to hear Boris Johnson explain how the test and trace system would be made to work properly.
- He accused the government of treating areas in the north of England with contempt. He said:
The government has been treating local communities, particularly in the Midlands, north-west and north-east - and their leaders - with contempt, that Whitehall knows best and we will simply tell you what’s coming your way. It’s just not good enough, you have to take people with you on this, listen to what local leaders are saying.
- He said he was opposed to MPs getting a pay rise. (See 9.33am.) (Starmer said the money would be better spent on frontline workers. Many people would agree but, with roughly 1.5m people working for the NHS, scrapping a £3,360 pay rise for 650 MPs is not going to help much in terms of boosting pay for doctors and nurses.)
- He said that the SNP MP Margaret Ferrier should resign for breaking coronavirus rules in a way that was “jaw-dropping”.
Keir Starmer says Margaret Ferrier's behaviour was "jaw-dropping" and she "should just resign".
— LBC News (@LBCNews) October 12, 2020
Her constituents, he adds, are "livid, furious, and embarrassed" after she travelled from London to Scotland after testing positive for Covid-19 #CallKeir | https://t.co/Tz6tnBdQi8 pic.twitter.com/TA4IvD6pcG
- He refused to criticise the police for investigating the rightwing blogger Darren Grimes for releasing an interview with the historian David Starkey which featured Starkey making racist comments. Asked if the police should be investigating Grimes, Starmer said:
I think it does sometimes have to involve the police, unfortunately. When I was director of public prosecutions there was a lot of focus on whether what people say on social media should be policed or not. There’s got to be a level of tolerance, of course. But there is a line that can be crossed and it’s very important that when it is crossed there is [police] involvement, in some cases prosecutions.
When it was put to him that journalists have a right to ask questions, Starmer said:
Of course journalists have the right to ask questions, and there has to be tolerance of free speech. All I’m saying is, as a general proposition, that there is a line. When people go over the line is, it’s right that it’s investigated.
These quotes imply Starmer was making a general point about police involvement sometimes being appropriate in these cases, rather than explicitly endorsing the investigation of Grimes. But Starmer did not say he was not referring to Grimes, and so his comments sounded like at least a tacit endorsement of the police investigation. This means that, on this issue at least, he has achieved the rare feat of sounding less liberal than Priti Patel. This is what Patel posted about the issue on Twitter at the weekend.
Decisions of the police to investigate particular cases are clearly an operational matter for them which I can't comment on, but as a general principle, it's important the law protects freedom of speech.
— Priti Patel (@pritipatel) October 10, 2020
And this is what Grimes himself posted on Twitter after the Starmer interview.
Make no mistake. This is the Leader of the Opposition supporting the arrest of a journalist for something his guest has said. Absolutely extraordinary, with terrifying repercussions for freedom of the press. https://t.co/CEn5WZfzl5
— Darren Grimes (@darrengrimes_) October 12, 2020
Grimes has been asked to attend a police interview under caution. The police say he has not been arrested.
- Starmer said he would be willing to meet Rakhia Ismail, a former Islington mayor who called the programme to say she has recently left the Labour party because she felt they only wanted her for “tick box” purposes.
Somalia-born former Labour Mayor of Islington Rakhia Ismail earlier told LBC the only wanted to have her involved as a "tick box".
— LBC News (@LBCNews) October 12, 2020
This was Keir Starmer's reaction to her concerns...#CallKeir | https://t.co/Tz6tnBdQi8 pic.twitter.com/Gp0LRZij6r
- Starmer refused to explicitly endorse Joe Biden for next US president. He said it was not appropriate for him to express a view. But he said he wanted to see the US adopt an internationalist approach to coronavirus.
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In an interview on the Today programme this morning Steve Rotheram, the Liverpool city region mayor, said that they had been told by London that their region was going into the top tier for restrictions, the very high alert level. He said he was focusing on improving the support package available.
We are told that the order will be placed before parliament today, there will be some debate tomorrow, but that the orders are likely to be enacted on Wednesday.
What we are trying to do is to see whether we can get support and the support package for the businesses in our city region that will be affected by the government’s decision ...
We were told we were going into tier 3, no ifs, no buts. We can either expend energy on that or we can try and get a better deal.
Some people like to shout at the wind but if they can’t change the direction of the wind it is important to shield people from its effects.
His comment about shouting at the wind sounded like a jibe at colleagues in Manchester for opposing any decision that would lead to their pubs having to close. (See 9.25am.)
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From the BBC’s Vicki Young
Original point of 3-tier system was to simplify rules and avoid different restrictions in neighbouring areas. After negotiations sounds like government will now allow some local flexibility. #coronavirus
— Vicki Young (@BBCVickiYoung) October 12, 2020
Starmer says MPs should not get annual pay rise
Sir Keir Starmer is holding his LBC phone-in now. Asked about the 4.1% pay rise announced for MPs, that will take their annual salary to just over £85,000, he said MPs should not get it. He said:
We shouldn’t have it. The reason that we get it is because it’s been parcelled out to an independent body so that MPs don’t decide for themselves what they get paid. But that’s mitigation. It’s not an excuse. I think this year, of all years, we shouldn’t have it.
Starmer said he did not think MPs could vote against it. But he went on:
I completely agree we shouldn’t have it. This year, of all years, I think people would say that money, if it’s available, should be spent on key workers, those that have been on the frontline through this pandemic.
It’s something which, at the moment, we don’t have any control over because it’s put out [by] an independent body.
But ... this is not the right thing to do.
Starmer also said he thought there should be a cross-party discussion about this.
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PM chairs Cobra on new local lockdown rules as northern leaders continue to haggle over details
Good morning. Later today Boris Johnson will announce a new three-tier framework for local lockdowns in England. This will coincide with restrictions being toughened in some areas, because places in level three, the “very high” alert level, will face tougher rules than anything currently in force in England.
Our overnight story is here.
And Jamie Grierson explains here how the new system may work.
Johnson is chairing a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee now to discuss the new measures.
But it has not all been finalised yet, and it is quite possible that by the end of the day exact details of what is happening in some places will still not be resolved. Here are some indications that it’s not yet a done deal.
- Liverpool’s city mayor, metro mayor and six of the council leaders from the region issued a joint statement last night saying that the job support scheme for businesses in lockdown areas forced to shut was not enough. They said:
We made it clear [to government] we do not feel that the furlough scheme announced recently is adequate and that businesses in the region especially those in the hospitality sector and those serving it will be damaged and many will suffer long-term damage or close for good.
- Joe Anderson, the Liverpool city mayor, posted a message on Twitter this morning accusing the government of “levelling down”. He also said he would continue to stand up for local businesses.
Let’s be clear that having ignored my pleas for over a month, the Government now blame us, and impose “lockdown by diktat” without a full financial package and support for businesses we are levelling down not levelling up. We will continue to stand up for our local businesses.
— Joe Anderson (@mayor_anderson) October 12, 2020
- Sir Richard Leese, the leader of Manchester city council, indicated on the Today programme that Manchester was still opposing measures that could lead to its pubs being shut. Manchester was different from Liverpool, he said. (Liverpool accepts its pubs will be shut.) Leese told the programme:
We’ve have one meeting with government on Friday. They’ve not been able to show us any data that connects bars and pubs in Greater Manchester with transmission of Covid-19 virus. They’ve not been able to provide any evidence that closing them down will work. Our own data - we have finely-grained data collected by our own directors of public health - seems to demonstrate that there isn’t a connection, or not a particular connection, between bars and restaurants and the transmission of Covid-19.
- Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, told the Today programme that, even though the PM was announcing a three-tier system, local leaders in the worst-hit areas would be able to add extra restrictions. He said in the the very high risk tier there would be “further discretion for local leaders, working with national government, to impose appropriate restrictions to control this virus”.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9am: Sir Keir Starmer hosts his LBC phone-in.
11am: Prof Jonathan Van Tam, the deputy chief medical officer for England, is due told a coronavirus data briefing.
12pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing.
12.15pm: Vaughan Gething, the Welsh health minister, holds the Welsh government’s regular coronavirus briefing.
12.15pm: The Scottish government is due to hold its regular coronavirus briefing.
2.30pm: Alex Chisholm, permanent secretary at the Cabinet Office, and Sir Chris Wormald, permanent secretary at the Department of Health, give evidence to the Commons public accounts committee about the supply of ventilators.
After 3.30pm: Boris Johnson makes a statement to MPs about the new local Covid alert levels.
Around 6pm: Johnson is due to hold a press conference.
Politics Live has been doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog for some time and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too.
Here is our global coronavirus live blog.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
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