MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 25.
UFC on ESPN+ 25 takes place Saturday at Santa Ana Star Center in Rio Rancho, N.M. The event streams on ESPN+.
Corey Anderson (13-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 30 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 79″
- Last fight: TKO win over Johnny Walker (Nov. 2, 2019)
- Camp: Nick Catone MMA (New Jersey)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter” season 19 winner
+ Regional MMA title
+ 2x All-American wrestler
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 5 KO victories
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume approach
+ Improved boxing ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Solid strike-to-takedown transitions
^ Favors level-changing doubles
+ Excellent top game
^ Improved pressure and controls
+ Active ground striker
Jan Blachowicz (25-8 MMA, 8-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 36 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: Decision win over Ronaldo Souza (Nov. 16, 2019)
- Camp: WCA Fight Team (Poland)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ KSW light heavyweight title
+ Muay Thai accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 6 knockout victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Excellent jab
+ Dangerous uppercuts and hooks
+ Will switch stances
^ Favors liver kicks from southpaw
+ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Submission savvy from top or bottom
+ 2-0 in rematches
Point of interest: Striking the second time around
The main event in New Mexico features a light heavyweight rematch with quiet stakes attached.
In the first meeting between Corey Anderson and Jan Blachowicz, we were privy to some brief but spirited striking exchanges before grappling and endurance became the theme of the fight.
Since then, both men have grown as strikers by sharpening similar tools; that said, they play off of the theme of pressure in different ways.
Stepping onto the UFC scene as a persistent, pressuring stalker who can come forward in combination from either stance, Blachowicz has steadily developed into a deceptively effective counter striker who shows that he doesn’t mind sitting back and being patient when posed with a come-forward threat.
In the heat of combat, the Pole packs a mean uppercut-hook return that he keeps on a hair-trigger, something he was able to show against both Jared Cannonier and Jimi Manuwa. Blachowicz also employs a stiff and serviceable jab that he quietly uses to string together his offense, as well as help support his defense.
As far as kicking goes, Blachowicz loves to sprinkle in crushing liver kicks off of shifts to the southpaw stance and doesn’t have any problems letting head kicks fly off the break. Still, I suspect that the 36-year-old fighter may shelf a large part of his patented body or leg kicks if he means to stay upright against Anderson.
A fighter who is steadily figuring out how to stoke his own fire, Anderson brings a suffocating pressure that is palpable through many facets of his game.
Finding a balance between sticking and moving, Anderson achieves his desired cooking temperatures through a high-output approach of striking volume and transitional takedown threats. Using this rinse-wash-and-repeat method, Anderson will steadily tenderize his opposition without letting off the gas.
Even though Anderson’s striking volume has won him many rounds in the octagon, his transition game is what ultimately glues everything together. Similarly to his stablemate, Frankie Edgar, Anderson mixes in volume and variety to keep his opposition behind the 8-ball.
However, despite Anderson displaying much meaner offensive wherewithal to go along with better head movement and overall boxing technique, he still opens himself up to undesirable traffic due to the nature of the numbers he puts up. For this reason, striking stanzas between the two should stay potent for as long as they last.
Next point of interest: Return to the mat?
Point of interest: Return to the mat?
As eluded to on the previous page, the first fight saw Anderson win through wrestling attrition despite Blachowicz scoring the first takedown (becoming one of just two men to take Anderson down in the UFC).
Since amassing his recent return of momentum, Blachowicz has reestablished his full-time training camp in Warsaw, a place where the Pole has been able to shore up the holes that were haunting him in the wrestling department.
Now, Blachowicz appears much more competent and comfortable when changing levels to counter aggression or when setting up and chaining takedowns of his own. More importantly, Blachowicz’s improvements have also translated defensively, demonstrating solid defensive fundamentals when fending off offensive grapplers like Devin Clark, Luke Rockhold or Ronaldo Souza.
However, despite winning those contests, the Polish contender spent a lot of time with his back against the fence in those fights – something that could be more costly given his current counterpart.
Anderson, who is an effective transitional wrestler in the open, tends to chain takedowns very well from the cage and has only improved on his ability to make his opposition work.
Not only is Anderson able to ground his opponents consistently (as the current takedown leader at light heavyweight in the UFC), but he has also done a better job at keeping them down, a problem that had been a persistent theme when looking closely at earlier fights. Anderson always displayed a solid understanding of levers and wrist-rides as he would actively pick off his opposition’s posts, but his eagerness to apply his high-volume offense would often allow for openings to stand.
Noting this issue, Anderson showed to adjust his approach over the years, utilizing heavy shoulder pressure to keep positions, as well as implementing safer rides to get damage off from a three-quarter mount.
Blachowicz is a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who is deceptively flexible and capable from the bottom, but after seeing how he fared against a fairly green version of Anderson, I’m not sure I like his chances should he get stuck on his back for large portions of the fight again.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be liking the younger fighter, listing Anderson -190 and Blachowicz +160 as of this writing.
Despite being a vocal supporter of Blachowicz and his skills for some time, I can’t say that I disagree with the betting spread listed above. Blachowicz has made measurable and impressive improvements in both the wrestling and cardio departments, but I’m still not sure it will inflate his chances of winning the fight enough for me to pick him here.
Sure, Blachowicz could hit one of his patented hook-uppercut returns off the break to violently shift this fight’s momentum, but if he doesn’t find a trajectory-changing shot by the end of the second round, then all signs point to another long night in the office for the Polish fighter. For that reason, I’ll side with Anderson’s more improved and reliable process to help him pull away down the stretch of what I see being a clear but competitive win on the scorecards.
