MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 3.
UFC on ESPN+ 3 takes place Saturday at O2 arena in Prague, Czech Republic. The entire card streams on ESPN+.
Jan Blachowicz (23-7 MMA, 6-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 35 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: Submission win over Nikita Krylov (Sept. 9, 2018)
- Camp: WCA Fight Team (Poland)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/Muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ KSW light heavyweight title
+ Muay Thai accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 5 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Serviceable jab
+ Dangerous uppercuts and hooks
+ Will switch stances
^ Favors liver kicks from southpaw
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Submission savvy from top or bottom
Thiago Santos (20-6 MMA, 12-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: KO win over Jimi Manuwa(Dec. 8, 2018)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Muay Thai titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Capoeira green rope
+ 13 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and movement
^ Will switch stances
+ Fast hand speed
^ Dangerous hooks and uppercuts
+ Devastating kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved overall grappling
^ Wrestling, transitions, fundamentals
Point of interest: The cost of entering chaos
The main event in Prague features a fun matchup between two offense-friendly light heavyweights.
Thiago “Marreta” Santos, who has been on a whirlwind tour of violence, will make his ninth official appearance on the UFC stage in just over the past two years.
A dynamic striker by nature, Santos can hit as heavy as the hammer tattooed on his chest suggests. With a background in capoeira, the Brazilian’s base shines through in his athletic movement. Almost shuffling laterally, Santos will smoothly switch his stances, fighting equally effective from either side.
Traditionally favoring his patented left Thai kick from the southpaw stance, Santos will also indiscriminately spin or attack legs with vigor in an effort to mix things up. However, since moving up to 205 pounds, Santos has been more prone to squeezing the trigger more frequently – unloading offense as if an excited eight-year-old is spamming commands behind a video game controller.
But with wild, free-flowing attacks (as fun as they may be to watch) existing on a street that goes both ways, Santos cannot afford to sleep on what could be potentially coming back at him.
Enter Jan Blachowicz.
Despite stepping onto the UFC scene as a persistent stalker who could come forward in combination with shifting liver kicks from the southpaw stance, Blachowiciz has developed into deceptively effective counter striker when he wants to be. In the heat of combat, the Pole packs a mean uppercut-hook return that he keeps on a hair-trigger, something he was able to show against both Jared Cannonier and Jimi Manuwa.
Blachowicz also employs a stiff and serviceable jab that he quietly uses to string together his offense, which may help him stave off the aggression coming his way. That said, it could also cost him should Santos decide to try and time the Polish fighter over the top.
Regardless who you give an edge to standing, these lines can quickly be blurred if chaos is allowed to culminate between these two.
Next point of interest: Potential ground action
Point of interest: Potential ground action
With this matchup packing enough explosives to end early, I could see offensive grappling playing an unsuspecting role in regards to either man trying to mute the other’s momentum.
Santos, who is the more pronounced striker of the two on paper, has shown that his cross-training at American Top Team has not been in vain. Occasionally shooting for a takedown of his own, Santos shows the ability to transition both defensively and offensively in a much more confident way since suffering his last submission loss to Eric Spicely. And once the Brazilian banger can achieve a superior position, his ground striking is nothing short of unforgiving.
Still, given the dynamic of the matchup and each of their history, I believe that Blachowicz will be the man who has more motive to get this to the floor.
Since amassing this recent winning streak, Blachowicz has found a full-time training camp in Warsaw, a place where the Pole has been able to polish his wrestling. Now, Blachowicz appears much more competent and comfortable when changing levels to counter aggression or setting up shots of his own.
Blachowicz also does well when having to chain his shot attempts together, a skill that earned him a takedown against noted wrestler Devin Clark. Upgrades aside, Blachowicz will need to be on point with his setups and timing if he plans on grounding Santos, who seems to keep his sprawls on a super sensitive hair-trigger.
But if Blachowicz is able to get his explosive counterpart down, then he should have the on-paper advantages. The Pole is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who knows how to play positions well from topside and isn’t afraid to snatch up submissions should they become available.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to have trouble deciding on which side to put their money, listing both fighters dead even on the betting lines at -110 as of this writing.
Previously, Santos was opened as a slight favorite – a spot I could see him return to come fight time. Popularity is a strong influencer on betting lines and Santos is certainly on the more memorable hot streak, as well as seemingly representing a higher ceiling as a fighter.
However, I would argue that – with both fighters being 35-years-old (granted, Blachowicz turns 36 the day after the fight) and sharing a similar amount of fights over roughly the same span of time – that these two are more equal than meets the eye. Santos may be the more fun man to watch, but Balchowicz’s recent body of work has been incredibly underrated.
From said technical improvements within the boxing to wrestling phases (as well as the management of his overall energy), Blachowicz’s style has proven to be problematic for the recent run of more explosive athletes who were supposed to out-gun the Pole in certain departments. So, for that reason, I’ll be picking Blachowicz here.
This matchup smacks upon too many similar themes as his last one against Nikita Krylov – a battle where Blachowicz was able to use his opponent’s offensive recklessness against him. And though I could see him submitting Santos in a similar way here, I suspect that Blachowicz’s underrated counters and checks will see some light in this fight, earning him a stoppage come the second round.
Prediction: Blachowicz inside the distance
For more on UFC on ESPN+ 3, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
