MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 9.
UFC on ESPN+ 9 takes place Saturday at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. The event streams on ESPN+.
Al Iaquinta (14-4-1 MMA, 9-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: Decision win over Kevin Lee (Dec. 15, 2018)
- Camp: Serra-Longo MMA (New York)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter: Live” finalist
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Collegiate wrestling experience
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good footwork
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Puts together punches well
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Good transitional grappler
Donald Cerrone (35-11 MMA, 22-8 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 36 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach:73″
- Last fight: TKO win over Alexander Hernandez (Jan. 19, 2019)
- Camp: BMF Ranch (New Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Multiple muay Thai titles
^ 28-0 as a pro kickboxer
+ 10 KO victories
+ 17 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Intelligent strike setups
^ Feints, reads, reacts
+ Devastating head kicks
+ Accurate and intercepting knees
+ Hard leg kicks
^ Most landed in UFC history
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
+ Active and attacking guard
Point of interest: Striking in space
The main event in Ottawa features a fun lightweight pairing of two fighters who like to dictate the striking ranges.
Typically looking to get a feel for the space he is working within, Al Iaquinta seems right at home when operating on the feet. A natural striker, Iaquinta puts together his punches well, seldom throwing himself out of position while doing so.
Effectively going forward or backward, the New York native will patiently prod shots while looking to get his rhythm. And once able to establish range, Iaquinta will seamlessly pick up his pace with levering shots to both the body and head, especially when sensing his opponent is hurt. Whether he is using dutch hand-traps or clever feints, the 32-year-old has a knack for finding his cleanup-hitting right hands and left hooks.
That said, I will be curious to see how Iaquinta’s more boxing-centric stance stacks up against the intercepting knees that Donald Cerrone uses to dissuade level-changing threats from making their way inside.
A pronounced muay Thai striker who loves to play in space, Cerrone embraces his kickboxing base, using leg kicks and teeps from a distance. Mixing in his punches appropriately to both the head and body, Cerrone will draw out his opponent’s defenses to set up the fight-ending head kicks that comprise his highlight reel.
In recent years, the 13-year pro has proven to provide much more than kicks and knees standing, showing strides in his ability to connect punches inside the pocket or in combination.
Since working with Brandon Gibson, the more recent iterations of Cerrone have him moving his head and torso offline and at angles, unloading his punches with different mechanics than before. Often punching his way out of exchanges with his left hook, Cerrone will feed his newfound flow into his patented head kicks, displaying an arsenal that’s much more symbiotic than before.
But with Iaquinta scoring a majority of his UFC knockdowns off of caught kicks, the choice of weapons in space may be just as important as the space itself.
Next point of interest: Transitional threats
Point of interest: Transitional threats
With both men being well-rounded fighters, I suspect that we will see each party look to catch the other off guard with level-changing threats.
Cerrone, who usually mixes in his well-timed takedowns smartly from the start, will typically go to them to deter oncoming pressure or in a seed-planting fashion to get into his opponent’s head early. And should the returning lightweight successfully ground his opposition here, then Iaquinta will have to be on his best behavior.
Cerrone is a solid guard passer who parlays his pathways into quick back-takes whenever they become available. And if he misses in transition, Cerrone is consistent with catching opponents with offense as they try to make it back to their feet. Nevertheless, the fan favorite will have a willing and competent dance partner across from him on Saturday night.
Coming into the sport with some wrestling experience, Iaquinta is no slouch when it comes to defending or deterring takedowns.
In last years outing against current kingpin Khabib Nurmagomedov – a fighter who can seemingly out-wrestle the entire lightweight lot – Iaquinta was able to fight for his own underhooks and even shuck off single-leg attempts down the stretch. And when Kevin Lee got his back last December, Iaquinta demonstrated the defensive awareness to stay safe in troublesome spots.
From submissions off of his back to his choices of tripoding to return to his feet, you will be hard-pressed to find a position that Iaquinta is not comfortable in. In fact, Iaquinta’s wrestling base allows him to go for risky submissions like leg locks with little fear of getting stuck on the bottom. But as good as his scrambling and positional awareness may be, I doubt that Iaquinta will be too eager to give ground to a grappler like Cerrone, who can finish from many positions.
Regardless of who starts a fire on the mat, the transitional threats that follow should be entertaining for as long as they last.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be slightly siding with the New Yorker, listing Iaquinta -130 and Cerrone +110 as of this writing.
Despite initially leaning with Cerrone on my way into this analysis, I ended agreeing with the listed line above. Regardless of who you’re siding with, this is a fight that is close on paper and a tough one for me to call.
I’ve begrudgingly gone against both fighters before and been proven wrong about where they are, especially Cerrone (who is traditionally hard to measure for many). When it comes to Iaquinta, I wasn’t sure where his head was at in the past few years between his inactivity and lack of sample size to his negotiation woes with the UFC brass and the budding of his own real estate business.
However, in recent fights and interviews, Iaquinta has proven his maturity in and out of the cage, seemingly dialing in his focus for another shot at the lightweight strap. Cerrone, to his credit, also seems refocused after fatherhood hit him, setting his sights on one last ride toward UFC gold. But with him seemingly so close to getting a fight with Conor McGregor, I can’t help but wonder if that letdown will affect Cerrone’s psyche coming in.
I hate to pick against such a storied fighter (especially one whose career I respect and style I admire) but I, too, find myself slightly siding with Iaquinta. Both men are the type of fighters who get better as the fight goes on, I just believe that Iaquinta starts a bit faster and finishes slightly stronger. He will also have the likes of Matt Serra and Ray Longo in his corner, who – aside from their comedic value – actually offer concise advice and bring in solid strategies.
That said, if the New York contingent did not specifically game plan for Cerrone’s knees up the middle, then I suspect their strategy could unfold rather quickly. Nevertheless, I have a hard time seeing either party go away easily here, which makes me think that Iaquinta’s kick counters and variety of attacks will ultimately secure him the scorecards down the stretch.
Prediction: Iaquinta by decision
For more on UFC on ESPN+ 8, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
