MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 9.
UFC on ESPN 9 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
Tyron Woodley (19-4-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 38 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Kamaru Usman (March 2, 2019)
- Camp: ATT Evolution (Missouri)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC welterweight champion
+ 2x Division 1 All-American wrestler
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Fast-twitch athlete
^ Closes distance quickly
+ Devastating right hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Heavy leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ 92 percent takedown defense
+ Solid transitional grappler
Gilbert Burns (18-3 MMA, 11-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 33 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: TKO win over Demian Maia (March 14, 2020)
- Camp: H-Kickboxing (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (2nd degree)
+ World Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion (2011)
+ Multiple grappling accolades (in and out of the gi)
+ 6 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved overall striking flow
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Strikes well of the breaks
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Trips, chains, level-changes
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Works well from top or bottom
Point of interest: The price of pressure
The main event on ESPN features a fun welterweight affair between a former champ who is looking to get back in the win column and an aggressive up-and-comer who is hitting his stride in multiple ways.
An accomplished grappler who immersed himself into all facets of martial arts, Gilbert Burns has steadily become a formidable threat on the feet.
Under the care of Henri Hooft, we have seen “Durinho” Burns build upon his pressuring sensibilities in the striking department. Whether he’s working off of his jab or his opponent’s, Burns always seems to have a heavy right hook chambered in the rear, as he typically looks to inch his way forward with offense that’s wired on a hair-trigger.
In his last matchup opposite Demian Maia, we saw Burns’ improved defense, as he displayed some nice head movement en route to slipping a punch and landing a slick left hook over the lead shoulder of his southpaw counterpart. Burns, who is a solid leg kicker in his own right, has also shown signs of improving his defensive awareness in regards to both checking and countering leg kicks thrown his way.
Nevertheless, leg kicks and counter crosses are still what has traditionally landed most on Burns, which means the Brazilian fighter will need to be on his best behavior if he means to pressure forward on fight night.
Enter Tyron Woodley.
A standout Mizzou wrestler, Woodley has always shown a knack for countering pressure coming his way with both takedowns and strikes since early on in his MMA career.
Making steady but consistent strides with his striking throughout the years, Woodley has gotten a lot of deserved miles for being a dangerous knockout threat on the feet. Though relying on it less frequently in recent parts of his career, the former champion possesses one of the fastest blitzes in the sport (running neck and neck with Yoel Romero, for my money).
Closing the distance at the drop of a dime, Woodley can accurately target his opponent’s head with crushing right hands that come in both straight and hooking fashions. And since making the trek to train more consistently with Duke Roufus in recent years, the St. Louis native has done a better job of attaching kicks to his combinations and moving more fluidly overall.
Still, Woodley ultimately seems to be a counter fighter at heart, a sensibility that seems to be a two-way street in regards to his perception. Tactically, the champion’s style of walking himself back toward the fence has served him well in the sense that he is the one who is dictating the exchanges, subtly allowing his opponents into his range.
The question, however, is will that approach be even riskier when fighting inside of a smaller octagon?
Regardless of any perceived risks, Woodley will still need to send messages to an oncoming Burns early if he means to avoid some sticky situations along the fence.
Next point of interest: Potential grappling entanglements
Point of interest: Potential grappling entanglements:
Considering the action that the smaller cage encourages, I would not be surprised to see these two tangle inside of the clinch early and often.
Burns, who is the much more accoladed submission grappler, will carry the on-paper edge in grappling exchanges irrespective of size or strength differences.
I say this all the time, but not all black belts are created equal, and Burns is a prime example of that. An IBJJF world champion both in and out of the gi, Burns was able to translate his brand of grappling quickly into the MMA space.
More importantly, Burns was not afraid to work with wrestling influences from standouts like Greg Jones to catch wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson. Integrating these crucial styles into his repertoire, there are now little-to-no positions that Burns is not comfortable or capable of working from.
Whether he is defending takedowns along the fence and striking off the breaks or hitting sweet trips and chaining takedowns of his own, Burns’ wrestling game remains to be one the things that quietly impresses me most. That said, as underrated as that part of his game may be, taking down Woodley is an entirely different story.
Sporting a successful takedown defense rate of 92 percent, Woodley’s ability to stymie action is something that’s built into both the statistics and his spirit.
Embracing his thick welterweight frame, Woodley seamlessly drops his hips and weight into his lower half anytime he is engaged with wrestling offense. And though you can criticize the champ for his lack of work inside of the clinch (or even off of the breaks), his prioritization of defense and position seems to pay off more times than not.
Should Woodley end up on grappling on the ground, he isn’t exactly a slouch when it comes to transitioning on the mat (something he reminded us of against Darren Till).
A solid positional player, Woodley knows how to secure a spot while doing damage in the process. And if you go back to his Strikeforce career, you will see savvy submissions and transitional grappling on display – something that Burns may force out of the champion come Saturday.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be favoring the former champion, listing Woodley -185 and Burns +160 as of this writing.
As stated in the video attached, I believe that Woodley is the deserved favorite to win this fight. Recency bias is a real thing in this sport, as it’s easy to have Woodley’s last performance burnt into the back of your heads.
However, even if his last outing was an uninspiring one, I warn anyone who is completely writing off the former champ here. Despite my official pick, I would not be surprised if Woodley is able to detonate a right hand on an oncoming Burns’ chin. And if this battle goes long, it’s not hard to see Woodley outlasting his younger counterpart, who has shown a propensity to slow in the past.
Say what you will about Woodley’s performance against Maia, but I was impressed with improved energy management he displayed while successfully defending multiple takedown attempts (with one good arm, no less). That said, he will need that same stellar defense and more if he means to keep Burns off of him in the small cage.
With less real estate comes less room for error, as the smaller octagon makes dictating terms more arduous while simultaneously encouraging more action. So, with that in mind, I seemingly find myself siding with the fighter who produces a higher rate and variance of offense from more positions.
If Woodley shows to have his proverbial sea legs underneath him early, then this will likely be an uphill battle for Burns in almost every phase. But if Woodley isn’t able to execute any meaningful offense halfway through the first, then I suspect that we’ll see the Brazilian’s clinch offense, pace and pressure pay more and more dividends down the stretch, producing a stoppage by the end of the third round.
