MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 8.
UFC on ESPN 8 takes place Saturday at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
Alistair Overeem (45-18 MMA, 10-7 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 39 Weight: 248 lbs. Reach: 81″
- Last fight: Knockout loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik(Dec. 7, 2019)
- Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Strikeforce and DREAM heavyweight titles
+ K-1 grand prix heavyweight champion (2010)
+ ADCC European winner
+ 24 KO victories
+ 17 submission wins
+ 34 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate and variating shot selection
+ Devastating knees and kicks
+ Crafty clinch game
+ Underrated takedown ability
+ Solid top control
^ Good grip-fighting/ground striking
+ Dangerous guillotine choke
– Dropped or stopped in 9 of last 16 fights
+/- 3-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Walt Harris (13-7 MMA, 6-6 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’5″ Age: 36 Weight: 256 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Alexey Oleinik (July 20, 2019)
- Camp: Spartan Fitness (Birmingham, Ala.)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ Multiple-time Golden Gloves champion
+ NAGA and Copa Grappling titles
+ 13 KO victories
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
+ Moves well for heavyweight
^ Solid feints and footwork
+ Accurate hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Dangerous crosses and kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Shows improved wrestling
+ Transitions well from topside
^ Dangerous ground strikes
Point of interest: Striking with the southpaw
The main event on ESPN features a heavyweight affair that packs a lot of potential fireworks for as long as it stays on the feet.
Walt Harris, the southpaw, will typically work his way into the fight through a thick layer of palpable pressure, steadily stalking down his opposition. Using subtle feints to draw out reactions, Harris keeps an array of counters at the ready, whether it be in the form of hard check-hooks or pinpoint crosses.
Once the multiple-time Golden Gloves champ establishes his rhythm and range, he will tack on Thai kicks and knees to his combinations with authority. Still, for all of Harris’ strengths, he is not beyond being tagged in return, which makes me curious as to how veteran Alistair Overeem handles this matchup.
Overeem hasn’t faced a southpaw striker in some time (going 3-2-1 against career UFC-level lefties), but is no stranger to having to stave off young and hungry oncomers.
When facing aggressive forward movers in the past, Overeem typically elects to hang just outside of range for safe distance – keeping his space – and looking for his openings to strike. If you have been watching Overeem since his days in PRIDE, then you will know that the Dutchman didn’t always fight this way.
Although the striking upgrades made during the K-1 chapter of his career helped him immensely, it wasn’t until Overeem’s run of UFC knockout losses that we saw him adjust his footwork and approach.
Already dangerous off of his stance shifts, it was Overeem’s confidence in his head movement and technique that often allowed him to plot in front of his opponents longer than he needed to. But after a series of camp changes during his run of losses, Overeem seemed to take things to another level at Jackson-Wink, where he would embrace a slightly different method than before.
Like many fighters who come from that camp, Overeem will circle more comfortably from the outside as he looks to sharpshoot his attacks like a torpedo plane on a bombing run. Among the highest striking accuracy in the division, this style is optimal for Overeem and also plays a huge role in protecting his chin from unnecessary roughness.
Perceived technical advantages aside, Overeem statistically has been dropped or stopped in nine of his past 16 fights, which makes this a full-fledged heavyweight affair while it’s on the feet.
Next point of interest: Wrestling with “The Reem”
Point of interest: Wrestling with “The Reem”
Considering the on-paper disparity in ground skills, I will be curious to see if Harris can successfully steer clear of Overeem’s underrated wrestling ability and vaunted clinch game.
Aside from the likes of guys like Daniel Cormier or Randy Couture, you can certainly make an argument for Overeem being one of the best heavyweight clinch fighters we’ve seen in MMA. Renowned for his devastating knees in-close, it is the slick grip and hand-fighting of the Dutchman that allows him to construct and control his demolitions.
The lynchpin for striking with effectiveness from both the clinch and the ground comes down the same thing: the ability to grip fight. Hence why most good ground-and-pounders make for good clinch strikers and vice versa.
Grip-fighting is also an arguable lifesaver on the defensive end, as most takedowns and submissions (as well as passes and advances, to a certain extent) become incredibly difficult, if not nearly impossible, with use of only one grasping limb.
With this in mind, the exchanges that happen between the two inside the clinch should carry extra weight. However, despite Overeem carrying obvious finishing abilities on the floor, both his entries and executions in his last outing weren’t exactly inspiring – something he can’t afford to repeat here.
Although Harris is primarily a striking threat, that does not mean he disregards the wrestling department. By spending multiple camps working at American Top Team in his neighboring state of Florida, Harris has quietly made improvements to this department since suffering a decision loss to Jared Rosholt back in his UFC debut.
The former collegiate athlete has quick hips out in the open and displays improved fundamentals within clinch or cage scenarios. And when Harris is able to establish top control, he has a surprising ability to transition that can be scary when thinking about the power he wields in his ground strikes.
Should Harris get grounded in this matchup, then he will undoubtedly need to show the urgency to not accept negative spots on the mat. That said, Harris will also need to be careful if intends on returning to his base via a tripod or turtle position given how good “The Reem” is from the front-headlock.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are currently siding with the southpaw, listing Harris -145 and Overeem +125 as of this writing.
Despite the fact that we’re all not-so-secretly rooting for Harris to have a good showing given all that he and his family have been through, it’s hard to disagree with the betting spread above.
Overeem has an undeniable edge on the floor and overall from a technical and experience standpoint. However, if he is not finishing the fight, history has proven that – regardless of whether or not he is winning rounds – Overeem’s chin remains the common culprit for him coming up short.
I don’t mean to disrespect Overeem or his chances here with that statement, mind you; it’s just hard to favor him against one of the most dangerous southpaw strikers that the heavyweight division as to offer if he shows similar entries to his last outing. For that reason, I’ll side with Harris to land his left cross late in the first round for a clean knockout win.
