MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 7.
UFC on ESPN+ 7 takes place Saturday at Yubileyniy Arena in St. Petersburg, Russia. The card streams entirely on ESPN+.
Alistair Overeem (44-17 MMA, 9-6 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 38 Weight: 247 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: TKO win over Sergei Pavlovich (Nov. 24, 2018)
- Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Co.)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Strikeforce and DREAM heavyweight titles
+ K-1 grand prix heavyweight champion (2010)
+ ADCC European winner
+ 22 KO victories
+ 17 submission wins
+ 32 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Excellent footwork
+ Accurate shot selection
+ Devastating knees and kicks
+ Crafty clinch game
+ Underrated takedown ability
+ Solid top control
^ Good grip-fighting/ground striking
+ Dangerous guillotine choke
– Dropped or stopped in 8 of last 14 fights
Aleksei Oleinik (57-11-1 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 41 Weight: 235 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: Submission win over Mark Hunt(Sept. 15, 2018)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida/Russia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ 2x combat sambo world champion
+ Master of sports in combat sambo
+ 8 KO victories
+ 45 submission wins
+ 45 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Deceptively heavy hands
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Crafty inside the clinch
^ Sets up chokes and takedowns
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Works well from topside
+ Dangerous and diverse submissions
^ Scrambles well to secure them
+/- Aggressive pace and pressure
^ Traditionally takes damage
Point of interest: The price of pursuit
The main event in St. Petersburg features a heavyweight showdown between two of the most potent first-round finishers in the division.
Starting off on the feet, I suspect that Aleksei Oleinik will be the man who is in full pursuit.
Looking like a mercenary who stepped off the screen of a movie, Oleinik makes no bones about his mission once the bell rings. Aggressively stalking at a borderline lurch, the 41-year-old makes his attacks somewhat unpredictable, but at the cost of carrying a porous defense.
Luckily for Oleinik, he is a durable warrior who recovers well and is difficult to shake from his objective. Furthermore, his willingness to close the distance (albeit reckless at times), allows Oleinik to transition from wading hooks to clinch warfare so quickly.
Oleinik also has a deceptive ability to counter, occasionally timing an opponent’s kicks or entries with success. Still, the crafty vet will be playing with fire should he gamble too liberally with his chin in this contest against the countering abilities of his current counterpart.
Enter Alistair Overeem.
When facing aggressive forward movers in the past, Overeem typically elects to hang just outside of range for safe distance – keeping his space – and looking for his openings to strike. If you have been watching Overeem since his days in PRIDE, then you will know that the Dutchman didn’t always fight this way.
Although the striking upgrades made during the K-1 chapter of his career helped him immensely, it wasn’t until Overeem’s run of UFC knockout losses that we saw him adjust his footwork and approach.
Already dangerous off of his stance shifts, it was Overeem’s confidence in his head movement and technique that often allowed him to plot in front of his opponents longer than he needed to. But after a series of camp changes during his run of losses, Overeem seemed to take things to another level at Jackson-Wink, where he would embrace a slightly different method than before.
Like many fighters who come from that camp, Overeem will circle more comfortably from the outside as he looks to sharpshoot his attacks like a torpedo plane on a bombing run. Among the highest striking accuracy in the division, this style is optimal for Overeem and also plays a huge role in protecting his chin from unnecessary roughness.
Technical advantages aside, Overeem statistically has been dropped or stopped in 8 of his last 14 fights, which makes this a full-fledged heavyweight affair while it’s on the feet.
Next point of interest: Clinch country
Point of interest: Clinch country
Oleinik’s best path to victory in this matchup ultimately relies upon whether or not he can play to his strengths. So, with that in mind, I will be curious to see what Oleinik can do if he gets things to the clinch.
A two-time combat sambo world champ, Oleinik makes his money inside of these close quarters.
The 23-year pro can do everything from dirty boxing to double-legs against the fence from this range, but it is also a place where Oleinik’s patented Ezekiel choke can be set up from. Despite seldom being seen in MMA, Oleinik (with an assist from his 80-inch wingspan) has made the Ezekiel choke a common play in his arsenal.
While most successful Ezekiel chokes are usually accomplished from the mount, Oleinik – as seen in his bout with Viktor Pesta – can hit this choke while being mounted from the bottom. And when he gets on top, the sambo player transitions seamlessly to and from the scarf hold, a position that plays the role of both security and submission threat when applied by the right party.
Nevertheless, Oleinik will still have to complete the first task of grounding or firmly grasping his foe before he can exercise those tools.
Aside from the likes of guys like Daniel Cormier or Josh Barnett, you can certainly make an argument for Overeem being one of the best heavyweight clinch fighters we’ve seen in MMA. Renowned for his devastating knees in-close, it is the slick grip and hand-fighting of the Dutchman that allows him to construct and control his demolitions.
The lynchpin for striking with effectiveness from both the clinch and the ground comes down the same thing: the ability to grip fight. Hence why most good ground-and-pounders make for good clinch strikers and vice versa. Grip-fighting is also an arguable lifesaver on the defensive end, as most takedowns and submissions (as well as passes and advances, to a certain extent) become incredibly difficult, if not nearly impossible, with use of only one grasping limb.
With this in mind, the exchanges that happen between the two inside the clinch should carry extra weight. And though Overeem has credible submission threats himself, you have to look back to almost the 1990s on both fighters’ resumes to find a submission loss, which makes for heightened stakes any time these two sharks start swimming within each other’s grasp.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be somewhat firmly siding with the fan favorite over the hometown fighter, listing Overeem -240 and Oleinik +200 as of this writing.
Although anything north of 2-1 odds in a heavyweight fight naturally brings about some skepticism in me, I can see why we ended up with this spread. Oleinik is not exactly a guy whose skills will necessarily jump out at you while watching his fight tape.
He has been able to pull out striking successes on the big stage before, but those came while deeply embedded in the trenches of warfare. Oleinik does appear to still be making improvements while at American Top Team in what is his self-proclaimed last run for the title, but I’m not sure he can afford to fight with his usual counter availabilities here.
Overeem, who many have written off by the time of/before his last fight, also appears to be making another late-career renaissance. Moving shop to the Elevation Fight Team to train with former foe Curtis Blaydes, Overeem appears to be in the shape of his life – reminding the masses of his grappling and overall abilities in his last outing.
Ultimately, I find myself siding with Overeem’s grip-fighting capabilities to be the difference-maker in this contest. Don’t get me wrong: Oleinik’s pressure and power could change the most well-laid plan with one good shot. But if that opportunity doesn’t materialize early, then I see Overeem dismantling Oleinik’s perceived advantages in the clinch and stopping him with strikes by the second round.
Prediction: Overeem inside the distance
For more on UFC on ESPN+ 7, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
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