MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 6.
UFC on ESPN 6 takes place Friday at TD Garden in Boston. The card airs on ESPN2.
Chris Weidman (14-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 35 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: Knockout loss to Jacare Souza (Nov. 3, 2018)
- Camp: Serra-Longo Fight Team (New York)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ 2x Div. 1 All-American wrestler
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 6 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Manages distance well
+ Accurate left hook and right hand
+ Hard body and leg kicks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Superb top game and transitions
+/- 7-2 against UFC southpaws
– Dropped or stopped in last 5 fights
Dominick Reyes (11-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 29 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: Decision win over Volkan Oezdemir (March 16, 2019)
- Camp: Cobra Kai (California)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ Wrestling accolades and experience
+ 6 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Explosive athlete
^ Measures distance well
+ Solid striking flow
^ Variates well to body and legs
+ Accurate left cross and power kicks
+ Shows good wrestling fundamentals
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Rides and transitions well from topside
Point of interest: Striking with another southpaw
The main event in Boston features a former champion moving up a division to do battle with yet another southpaw striker.
A persistent stalker who made his name off of conquering notable southpaws, Chris Weidman does an excellent job of keeping temperatures high on the feet, all while managing the distance with a deceptive reach and solid sense of range.
Typically using his left hand in a pawing or feinting fashion, Weidman has a good feel for when to throw strikes with his opposition, as well as how to capitalize in exchanges. Whether he is throwing a body kick or doubling up on right hands to get an angle, the ten-year pro makes it difficult for his contemporaries to digest the pressure.
In his last outing, Weidman demonstrated a much more educated left hand, utilizing it to either enter or exit out of exchanges. Unfortunately for the former champ, he still ultimately ended up on the wrong end of offense come the later rounds.
In fact, Weidman has been caught more often and with greater effect in recent history, getting dropped or stopped in his last five fights. Despite improvements to his head movement and hand positioning, Weidman has usually been a little too comfortable exchanging on the inside (for my liking, anyway), as his confidence here has seemingly gotten him caught consistently dating all the way back to his last couple of title defenses.
I suspect Weidman’s capacity to take a shot will be sturdier at 205 pounds, but I’m not sure he’ll be looking to lean on that given his current counterpart.
Enter Dominick Reyes.
A former collegiate football player who fights out of a southpaw stance, Reyes brings in a host of well-rounded, physical attributes to compliment his skills. And despite his background and on-paper experience, the 29-year-old talent appears to have a natural feel for the striking arts.
Displaying a preternatural sense for range, Reyes uses pressure to draw out reactions. He has hard hooks and kicks that keep his opposition honest, but it’s his pinpoint left cross that acts as a battering ram, both coming forward and off the counter.
Reyes also does well at varying his attack levels, going to the body or targeting the legs with regularity. Should the striking savvy that seems well-beyond his years stack up to the senior fighter, then perhaps Reyes can land similar shots that past Weidman opponents have had success with.
However, if Reyes is too eager to retreat and concede space (as he’s shown at times in the past), then he could end up inadvertently backing himself into the fence and inviting Weidman to test him in other ways.
Next point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering the path to victory that Weidman, himself, has hinted at, I will be very curious to see how these two tie up in the wrestling department.
Despite a small sample size to draw from, Reyes – who was an accoladed wrestler high school – demonstrates solid wrestling chops in transit, whether he is using fundamentals to defend takedowns or exercising what appears to be a more than serviceable takedown game (both in the open and against the fence). Still, I’m not sure how viable wrestling options will be for Reyes against this particular opponent.
Weidman, a former two-time division one All-American wrestler, owns the center of the octagon on paper, defending and dictating the bulk of takedowns that take place in open space. The New York native is no stranger to changing his level for a reactive shot, though typically prefers to chain from a snatch single (which could come in handy considering Reyes’ defense from the fence).
Still, Reyes shows absurd athleticism and balance that has bailed him out before and, more importantly, appears to be hard-wired to properly scramble with immediacy whenever in disadvantageous positions (something that I suspect he can thank Joe Stevenson for). And when the 29-year-old is working from topside, he displays solid rides and decision making in regards to when he should sink in his hooks and commit to a position.
That said, I’m not sure grappling with Weidman will be Reyes’ first option.
Even when grounded, Weidman is far from a fish out of water on his back. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Matt Serra, he has no problem attacking off of his back, even going for the occasional leg lock. And once able to scramble to a dominant position, Weidman has master-chef capabilities in regards to cooking what he catches.
Should Weidman – akin to his fight with Kelvin Gastelum – look to abuse Reyes for his propensity to turtle/tripod to stand, then it could be a potentially rough night at the office for the rising prospect.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be liking the larger man, listing Reyes -165 and Weidman +145 as of this writing.
Despite the on-paper disparities in experience, I can understand why the former champ is coming in as the betting underdog. Between health issues and time off between fights, it can be hard to feel confident or know what you’re gonna get with Weidman.
However, in his last fight – coming off of the longest layoff of his career – Weidman showed marked improvements to his overall approach (despite the outcome of the contest), as I would suggest you leave some room to be surprised here. Furthermore, this fight will also mark Weidman’s official debut at 205 pounds, which also carries potential benefits considering how rough the weight cuts at middleweight were for him.
Still, like we saw when Luke Rockhold moved up to face Jan Blachowicz, going up in weight is not always the answer – particularly from a stylistic standpoint.
For example, I suspect that Weidman – like Rockhold – may be more reliant on using his size and presence to bully opposition than he realizes, thus having difficulties with matchups that involved size parodies or fighters that, for one reason or another, were problematic to grapple with. So basically, unless Weidman can ground Reyes with regularity, then I suspect that this could be a difficult light heavyweight debut.
Even if the former champ is able to drag Reyes into the later rounds, I’m still not sure he’ll have the cardio edge despite having more experience in five-round affairs.
In fact, outside of his win over Gastelum, Weidman has typically struggled come the mid-to-late rounds. And though the lack of a weight cut could hypothetically help his cardio, you still have to account for the extra weight he’ll be carrying in this matchup (a la Kevin Lee vs. Rafael dos Anjos), particularly against a sizable threat like Reyes.
After two deceptively tough fights against two large and underrated light heavyweights in Ovince Saint Preux and Volkan Oezdemir, Reyes recency bias will tell you that he has the propensity to struggle late. But if you listen to those fights with the commentary off (no offense to the stellar broadcast team), you will see that Reyes is actually fighting smart, landing to the body and legs with regularity, as well as winning the third rounds in each contest.
Now, does that mean that Reyes will be the one outlasting Weidman? I’m not sure, nor would I bet on it.
That said, I don’t suspect that this fight goes past the third round regardless of the winner. Either Weidman will successfully implement his high-level grappling game to pressure-cook a finish on the floor, or Reyes will be able to land crushing body kicks and pinpoint crosses down the pipe. I hate picking against a Serra-Longo fighter who is undefeated in main events, but I suspect that Reyes is able to survive early and steal on the former champ in the second round, earning a stoppage by strikes.
