MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 5.
UFC on ESPN+ 5 takes place Saturday at The O2 in London. The card streams on ESPN+.
Darren Till (17-1-1 MMA, 5-1-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 26 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Submission loss to Tyron Woodley (Sept. 8, 2018)
- Camp: Team Kaobon (Liverpool, Eng.)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ K-1 European title
+ Luta Livre purple belt
+ Thai boxing experience
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Accurate left hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Hard Thai kicks
^ Works well to the body
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Dangerous elbows and knees
+ Serviceable grappling ability
Jorge Masvidal (32-13 MMA, 9-6 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Stephen Thompson(Nov. 4, 2017)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ AFC welterweight title
+ Undefeated in the streets
+ 13 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Slick boxing technique
^ Accurate shot selection
+ Improved kicking game
+ Solid balance and footwork
+ Active transition and clinch game
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Underrated submission acumen
+/- 5-2 against UFC level southpaws
Point of interest: Strikers delight
The main event in London features a fun pairing of two welterweights who aren’t short of swagger in the striking department.
Initially stepping into MMA from the backyard brawling scene, Jorge Masvidal has turned into one of the savvier strikers among his contemporaries, operating with the comfort of a longtime veteran. Feinting forward and initiating with his jab, Masvidal has always had a knack for pulling and returning punches with his opponents.
At lightweight, the Cuban’s style and available output had him arguably too comfortable at times, costing him crucial rounds in close fights – fights that many thought he had won. That said, we have seen a different iteration of Masvidal since his ascension up the welterweight division.
Now, pursuing much more aggressively, Masvidal will mix in his improved kicks off of Thai-style marches. Working well off of his patented left hand, the 16-year vet controls the center line with authority, varying between straight shots to the head or hooks to the body.
Masvidal, who seldom extends himself too far out of position, can be hard to hit cleanly more often than not. However, his comfort in exchanges has shown to cost him both blitzes and counters at times, which means he will need to be extra careful considering his current counterpart.
Enter Darren Till.
Till, who embodies an authentic muay Thai spirit, mixes in a brand of southpaw swagger that is uniquely his own. Despite the bravado that the Englishman exudes, Till smartly works behind subtle feints and solid footwork while creating angles that allow him to capitalize and counter on his opponent’s reactions.
Favoring his crafty left cross, Till possesses a pull-counter that is slightly akin to Conor McGregor’s, typically stunning his opposition when landing it cleanly. The 26-year-old also throws left Thai kicks that tend to flow off of his left-handed threats, but he could get more than he bargains for should he throw them nakedly (without setup) against Masvidal, who – like Till – will also use those opportunities to counter.
That said, I do suspect we may see more weapons brought to the table from Till this time around. Admittedly fighting through injuries during the main stretch of his UFC career, Till seemed to limit himself to just a few choice weapons.
Nevertheless, the Englishman has opened up in more recent efforts, whether it be by showing moves like oblique kicks or staying much more active with his right hand. Against a slick vet like Masvidal, Till likely will have all his tools on display.
Next point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Although I have little doubt that striking fans will get their fill, I also have a sneaky suspicion that we will see some ground-fighting in this matchup.
Till, who has demonstrated solid (and I dare say underrated) takedown defense, does not wield a grappling base that you would stereotype with his area.
Coming from a Luta Livre background (a grappling style more synonymous with catch wrestling than jiu-jitsu), Till demonstrates excellent positional awareness and disciplined hand-fighting, a technique that helps him defend takedowns, as well as allows him to unleash unforgiving elbows when topside. From the bottom, the Liverpudlian generally displays decent craft and composure when put on his back, and will usually not stick around too long to see how things play out (aside from his last outing, of course).
Instead, Till will typically elect to turtle-out to his base and work to stand from there. The potential problem, however, is that if Till goes that route in scrambling scenarios, he does risk giving his back in transit or worse: allowing Masvidal (an underrated submission artist) a front-headlock grasp.
The Cuban is undoubtedly the more experienced and skilled grappler who should have a quiet but clear advantage on the mat. Masvidal, who was initially a noted striker, spent almost an entire 16-year career training with high-level wrestlers at American Top Team, which, in turn, forced him to improve his wrestling.
Even if Masvidal mainly uses his wrestling for defensive purposes, I will be curious to see if he returns to similar strategies we saw in his battles with Tim Means and James Krause given the fighting style and physical frame at hand. But even if the Cuban does try and turn the tables with takedowns, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll get them.
As stated before, Till is very difficult to get down. Even former champion Tyron Woodley had difficulty de-basing the Englishman from a solid bodylock position in their fight. Perhaps it’s his muay Thai base, but Till seems strong and comfortable whenever operating within this space, flowing offensively or defensively with the position (depending on what the situation is calling for).
Still, I suspect that the biggest potential swings in this fight may come inside of the clinch, whether it be a takedown or a well placed strike off the break.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the Englishman, listing Till -240 and Masvidal +200 as of this writing.
I know that England can come strong in regards to supporting their fighters on the betting lines, but I believe this matchup is a lot closer than the line above indicates. Both men are durable strikers who don’t seem to mind (albeit subconsciously, at times) stretching their legs out in a fight, subsequently putting them both in closer contests than they arguably need to be.
Masvidal, who generally does very well against southpaw strikers, has a rich history of coming up short in split decisions. Couple that with the sometimes questionable scorecards we’ve seen doled out in England, and I can certainly see why many are siding with the hometown fighter here. Till is a well trained competitor who has proven he can go 25 minutes under adverse conditions and still keep his cool enough to win rounds.
If Masvidal’s 16-month layoff has any negative effects, then I expect Till to try and expose those in the first frame. But if Till – who sometimes tends to start slow – allows Masvidal comfort early, then I suspect we should have a fairly competitive fight from the start.
I’m not sure how much more time the 34-year-old Masvidal will have fighting at the top level, but I suspect that the time off served Masvidal’s motivations well, making him a potential spoiler in this spot. It’s never a confident pick with matchups like these (especially when picking opposite of a talent whom I love to watch like Till), but I see a few well timed takedowns and well placed punches off the break making the difference for Masvidal down the stretch, earning him a somewhat surprising upset.
Prediction: Masvidal by decision
For more on UFC on ESPN+ 5, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
