MMA Junkie Radio co-host Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 5.
UFC on ESPN 5 takes place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. The card airs on ESPN.
Colby Covington (14-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision win over Rafael dos Anjos(June 9, 2018)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC interim welterweight title
+ 2x NCAA Division I All-American wrestler
+ Pac-10 wrestling champion
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 3 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ Well-conditioned athlete
+ Improved overall striking
^ Footwork, combos, head movement
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ Chains attempts, constantly re-wrestles
+ Tremendous top game
^ Pins, strikes, cooks to submission
+ Superb wrist-rides and positional awareness
+/- 4-0 against UFC southpaws
Robbie Lawler (28-13 MMA, 13-7 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 37 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Submission loss to Ben Askren(March 2, 2019)
- Camp: Hard Knocks 365 (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC welterweight champion
+ EliteXC middleweight title
+ 20 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid footwork
+ Dangerous left hand and right hook
+ Hard left Thai kicks
^ Variates well from the body to head
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Underrated wrestling
^ Good getup ability
+ Effective butterfly guard
+ Explosive ground striker
+/- 3-3 against UFC southpaws
Point of interest: Southpaw slugging
The main event on ESPN features an important welterweight fight between two southpaws who are somewhat familiar with one another.
Although the southpaw versus southpaw pairing typically presents some problems in the form of discomfort and defense (given that most southpaws predicate their games against orthodox opposition), I don’t suspect it will be a sizable factor for either fighter considering both their styles and the dynamic of the overall matchup.
What I do suspect to be a factor is the fact that both men are pressure-based fighters by trade. And when two pressure-fighters collide, the one with level-changing sensibilities can oftentimes carry a slight edge in regards to dictating the action.
A lifelong wrestler, Colby Covington has been steadily developing solid striking fundamentals from fight to fight, something that assists his pressuring ways. From not crossing his feet to resetting his angles on the outside, Covington can create lanes for his favored kicks and crosses off of his power side – shots that are often set up by his jab.
The 31-year-old American also does a decent job of rolling off of his crosses, keeping his head off the centerline while throwing and moving. Though many will still point to Covington’s defensive behavior in his fight against Demian Maia, I have to imagine that a lot of that can be attributed to his prioritization of takedown defense and pressure (not to mention Maia’s underrated ability to strike and make fights ugly). And when considering Covington’s current opponent at hand, I’m sure he won’t be looking to stand for long.
Enter [autotag]Robbie Lawler[\autotag].
One of the heavier-handed fighters to set foot in this division, Lawler has been in similar matchup dynamics throughout his career – arguably building his game around it.
Similar to Anthony Johnson (a former pupil of Lawler’s newfound striking coach, Henri Hooft), Lawler will steadily march down his opposition, cutting off the octagon while shifting his weight from left to right.
Fueled by an excellent awareness of angles, Lawler symbiotically moves his head defensively as his feet set up offensive onslaughts. This approach allows Lawler to stay on balance when attacking, which – at least on paper – helps keep him in position to defend level-changing takedown attempts.
The former welterweight kingpin also keeps more of an anti-wrestler strike selection, throwing things like shovel hooks and uppercuts (from both the lead and rear hand), as well as the occasional lifting knee when he can get the timing. With that in mind, I suspect we’ll see Lawler stick to more of those rather than the left Thai kicks that he’s fallen in love with in later parts of his career.
Whether Covington is looking to counter Lawler’s strikes with takedown shots or draw him out of his shell, he will have to commit hard to whatever he’s selling if he means to get over on the former champ.
Next point of interest: Controlling the chaos
Point of interest: Controlling the chaos
Despite providing legitimate hurdles like counter strikes and footwork fundamentals, Lawler – who does have underrated takedown defense to boot – could be in a sticky situation should he allow Covington into clinching range.
Between Covington’s ability to both change-up entries and muddle his work with striking combinations, the American Top Team product can be difficult to get a beat on. Coupled with the fact the Covington is disciplined about shooting in with his head chest level or toward his opponent’s weak side, and I suspect that the percentages of him being countered while entering space will be significantly lowered.
Should Covington find success in said spaces, then we will likely see him chain-wrestle his way to the floor.
Lawler has long possessed answers from the bottom like a serviceable butterfly guard, but he’ll have to be extra careful whenever he tries to stand back up against the wrestling standout. I’m not sure if I can see Covington submitting a sober Lawler in these scenarios, but I do see him having his chances to try (or at the very least re-assert position) whenever Lawler tries to get back to his feet.
A tremendous grappler from topside, Covington uses everything from wrist-rides to leg and lever disruptions to break an opponent’s balance and spirit. Whether he is spiraling out the base of those who try to stand or striking them with impunity from positional rides and pins, Covington is steadily becoming a master chef when it comes to cooking his counterparts underneath him.
Nevertheless, as good as that all sounds, in theory, Covington will still have to successfully execute his game for potentially up to 25 minutes.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be favoring the more polarizing fighter, listing Covington -235 and Lawler +195 as of this writing.
Lawler has long been my favorite warlord who ruled over the UFC’s welterweight division, but given his history in this sort of styles matchup, I can understand why we see the betting spread above. Lawler may have gotten better at shutting down grapplers as his career has progressed, but – win or lose – those matchups (for the most part) ended up being tough fights that saw him lose them more than he won them.
Sure, he may have topped guys like Frank Trigg, Josh Koscheck and Johny Hendricks (arguably altering all of their career trajectories in the process), but they were all able to take Lawler down throughout their contests until being hurt or otherwise. I would also argue that none of them committed (or even could commit) to the dedicated and sticky grappling style that Covington brings to the table.
Lawler, of course, has appeared to step up his strength and conditioning even further, nor is he a slouch come the fifth round. Nevertheless, I still suspect that Covington, who has proven he can attempt and score 10-12 takedowns a fight with barely breaking a sweat, can maintain his pace so long as he’s speaking his first language of wrestling. The pick is Covington to survive some early scares en route to a hard-fought decision win.
