UFC on ESPN 40 predictions: Santos or Hill? And who will be next ‘TUF’ winners?

	Santos vs. Hill	Luque vs. Neal	Pauga vs. Usman	Miller vs. Walker	Sakai vs. Spivac	Cachoeira vs. Lipski
MMA Junkie readers’ consensus picks 127-74	Hill (77%)	Luque (86%)	Pauga (56%)	Walker (57%)	Spivac (78%)	Lipski (73%)
Ken Hathaway @kenshathaway 136-70 2018 Champion	Hill	Luque	Pauga	Miller	Spivac	Cachoeira
Mike Bohn @MikeBohn 132-74 2014 Champion	Hill	Luque	Pauga	Miller	Spivac	Lipski
Abbey Subhan @kammakaze 132-74	Hill	Luque	Usman	Walker	Spivac	Lipski
Matthew Wells @MrMWells 128-78	Hill	Neal	Usman	Miller	Spivac	Lipski
Simon Samano @SJSamano 127-79	Hill	Neal	Pauga	Walker	Sakai	Lipski
Matt Erickson @MMAjunkieMatt 126-80	Santos	Luque	Usman	Miller	Spivac	Lipski
Farah Hannoun @Farah_Hannoun 125-81	Hill	Luque	Pauga	Walker	Spivac	Lipski
Nolan King @mma_kings 123-83	Santos	Luque	Pauga	Miller	Sakai	Lipski
Brian Garcia @thegoze 121-85 2017 Champion	Hill	Luque	Pauga	Walker	Spivac	Cachoeira
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 114-92	Hill	Luque	Usman	Walker	Sakai	Cachoeira
Danny Segura @dannyseguratv 101-105	Hill	Luque	Pauga	Walker	Sakai	Lipski

The UFC is back in its Las Vegas home base this week with a key light heavyweight bout, plus a pair of finals for Season 30 of “The Ultimate Fighter.”

UFC on ESPN 40 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, former light heavyweight title challenger Thiago Santos (22-10 MMA, 14-9 UFC) takes on Jamahal Hill (10-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC). Hill is a big -340 favorite at Tipico Sportsbook; the comeback on Santos is +250. Our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers largely are taking Hill with a big 9-2 picks lead.

In the co-feature, Vicente Luque (21-8-1 MMA, 14-4 UFC) takes on Geoff Neal (14-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC) at welterweight. Luque is a 2-1 favorite at the betting window and like Hill has a 9-2 lead from our pickers.

In the heavyweight final of Season 30 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Zac Pauga (5-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) meets Mohammed Usman (7-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC), the brother of UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. Pauga is the biggest favorite on the main card at -290, but he has just a 7-4 lead in the picks.

In the “TUF 30” women’s flyweight final, it’s a close fight at the sportsbook between Juliana Miller (2-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) and Brogan Walker (7-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC). Miller is a slight favorite at -125, but Walker has a 6-5 picks edge.

Augusto Sakai (15-4-1 MMA, 4-3 UFC) takes on -280 favorite Serghei Spivac (14-3 MMA, 5-3 UFC) at heavyweight. But despite the big odds in Spivac’s favor, he has just a 7-4 picks lead.

And to open the main card, Priscila Cachoeira (11-4 MMA, 3-4 UFC) meets Ariane Lipski (14-7 MMA, 3-4 UFC) in a women’s flyweight bout. Lipski nearly is a 2-1 favorite and has an 8-3 lead from our staff members.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Hill (77 percent), Luque (86 percent), Pauga (56 percent), Walker (57 percent), Spivac (78 percent) and Lipski (73 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 40.