MMA Junkie Radio co-host Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 4.
UFC on ESPN 4 takes place Saturday at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. The card airs on ESPN.
Rafael dos Anjos (29-11 MMA, 18-9 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: Submission win over Kevin Lee(May 18, 2019)
- Camp: RVCA/Gracie Barra (California)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple Brazilian jiu-jitsu accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Disciplined pace and pressure
^ Aggressive but intelligent stalker
+ Hard and accurate Thai kicks
^ Variates well to the body
+ Good takedowns against the fence
^ 12-3 when scoring at least one
+ Strong positional grappler
^ Smashes and passes effectively
+ Improved getup ability
+/- 5-2 against UFC southpaws
Leon Edwards (17-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 27 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: Decision win over Gunnar Nelson(March 16, 2019)
- Camp: Team Edwards MMA (England)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ BAMMA welterweight title
+ Various amateur MMA accolades
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
^ Fast hand speed
+ Good feints and footwork
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Dangerous body and head kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Slick trips and takedowns
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
+/- 2-1 against UFC southpaws
Point of interest: Southpaw vs. southpaw
The main event in San Antonio features a gunfight between two of the best southpaw fighters in the welterweight division.
Although a matchup of lefties typically presents some problems in the form of discomfort and defense (given that most southpaws predicate their games against orthodox opposition), I don’t suspect it will be a sizable factor for either fighter considering their relevant experience and statistics against fellow UFC southpaws.
A slick, diverse striker who can counter or come forward with effect, Leon Edward’s pairing of speed and accuracy help him cover a lot of ground in regards to gaining respect.
Working behind a deceptive jab that he often uses to check his opponents, the Englishman will also keep powerful left crosses and kicks at the ready, occasionally sprinkling in explosive knees to intercept oncoming level changes.
Still, Edwards is not beyond being intercepted himself, something that Bryan Barberena (another southpaw) reminded the 27-year-old of in their battle. Should Edwards fall victim to the same blind spots of a fellow lefty here, then he could be in for a harder night than expected.
A more flexible pressure fighter, Rafael dos Anjos will steadily stalk his opponents, working behind feints until finding an opportunity to unleash his shots. Whether dos Anjos is throwing his hard left hands or Thai kicks, he usually counterbalances his attack with a dangerous right hook.
Accustomed to having to slip-and-rip on taller opposition, dos Anjos does well at following his opponents strike retractions back into the pocket – a place where he can use his power to bomb from below. Still, the Brazilian will need to respect what’s coming back his way given the countering acumen of his counterpart, something that should keep exchanges exciting for as long as they last.
Next point of interest: Wrestling wears
Point of interest: Wrestling wears
Considering each fighter’s history with the wears of wrestling, I will be curious to see if either man tries to take a tactical edge.
Edwards, who was initially identified as a striker when first stepping onto the UFC scene, put a sizable emphasis on his wrestling after losing a close split-decision in his UFC debut. Since then, we have seen the Englishman use suffocating clinches and well-timed trips and takedowns to surprise opponents as well as win rounds.
Edwards also likes looking for the back, but is just as happy playing the role as a positional rider and grinding things out. But doing that to dos Anjos is easier said than done, as the former lightweight champ has proven to be harder to hold down as his career has progressed.
Ever since his closely contested encounter with Gleison Tibau, we have seen dos Anjos slowly but surely close the gaps in his wrestling ability. Adding in a takedown game that fits nicely into his cage corralling sensibilities, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has proven to be a full-fledged threat. Defensively, dos Anjos has improved his fundamentals from underhooks to hip positioning, as well as wielding an upgraded urgency to his getup game.
Should dos Anjos end up on his back, he’s far from a slouch. The 15-year pro will offer up legitimate threats from kimura sweeps to submissions that Edwards will need to be aware of so that he doesn’t fall victim to the positional-based player.
Thankfully for Edwards, he has shown to be no slouch when he does have to work from negative positions on the mat.
The eight-year pro knows how to read a scramble in the heat of battle, as well as appropriately fight hands and use the fence to stand. Edwards also has a knack for guard retentions, which could be the lesser of two evils when facing a grappler the level of dos Anjos.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinions and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are seemingly both on board that this is a close matchup to call, listing Edwards -120 and dos Anjos +100 as of this writing.
Given the seven-fight winning streak to go along with some on-paper advantages, I’m not surprised to see Edwards listed at the betting favorite. The Englishman has long had my attention since his eight-second knockout over Seth Baczynski and has more than cemented his ground standings in an impressive grinding stoppage of Peter Sobotta.
Still, even with his noted ability to stop a fight late, I’m not convinced Edwards can match the pace of dos Anjos if he fails to make his mark early. As we saw in both his fourth rounds with Colby Covington and Kevin Lee, dos Anjos – in victory or defeat – can stage consistent offense late in fights.
The former lightweight champ has been scheduled/through the five-round pacings more than Edwards, who lost the late rounds to Donald Cerrone on most scorecards the one time he went the five-round distance.
Don’t get me wrong: Edwards is a talented fighter who I’m sure works very hard, but he’s also found himself digging deep and breathing heavy toward the end of more than his fair share of three-round affairs. If Edwards fails to stop or significantly hurt dos Anjos in the early rounds, then I see the Brazilian veteran pulling away down the stretch to a competitive but clear decision win.
Prediction: Dos Anjos by decision
For more on UFC on ESPN 4, check out the MMA Schedule.
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