MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 4.
UFC on ESPN+ 4 takes place Saturday at INTRUST Bank Arena in Wichita, Kan. The event streams on ESPN+.
Junior Dos Santos (20-5 MMA, 14-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 255 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: TKO win over Tai Tuivasa (Dec. 1, 2018)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/boxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 14 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent boxing ability
^ Accurate shot selection
+ Good counter wrestler
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Shows solid positional awareness
Derrick Lewis (21-6 MMA, 12-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 34 Weight: 265 lbs. Reach: 79″
- Last fight: Submission loss to Daniel Cormier(Nov. 3, 2018)
- Camp: 4oz. Fight Club (Texas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Legacy FC heavyweight title
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ 18 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Variates between overhands and uppercuts
+ Underrated kicks and knees
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Improved grappling and positional awareness
^ Deceptive scrambling/getup ability
+ Devastating ground striker
Point of interest: Dancing with the devil
The main event in Wichita features a fun matchup of strikers that will likely demonstrate the dangerous dance that is heavyweight MMA.
Junior Dos Santos, who fights out of a more boxing-centric stance, is a crisp striker through and through. Working behind the pressure of his jabs and left-handed feints, Dos Santos will set up devastating overhands and uppercuts – strikes that comprise the majority of the former champion’s highlight reel.
Though the Brazilian’s right hand is often known as the clean-up hitter, his left is arguably more accurate, especially when applying his hook. Often utilizing his hooks offensively off of his jabs and feints, Dos Santos does a deceptively good job of placing check hooks to cover his tracks or drawing his opponents into them through baiting fakes.
Still, countering will probably be a potent two-way street given the propensity for violence his current counterpart will bring in close quarters.
Enter Derrick Lewis.
Stepping onto the scene as an unabashed brawler, Lewis has shown signs of improvements underneath the scary destructions that often take place in his fights. An athletic-mover for his size, Lewis can throw accurate knees and head kicks with little signs of struggle.
A downright scary distance closer, Lewis can force his opponents into the fence whether or not he lands on them, almost in a juggernaut-like fashion. With a frame that is hard to control in close, the 34-year-old slugger does his best work when striking off of the breaks, maintaining a dangerous potency in small spaces that goes deep into the fight.
With that in mind, I imagine that Dos Santos cannot afford to sleep on the deceptive savviness of Lewis – who also likes to set traps and counter – but often does so by playing possum to draw you into his uncanny power.
Next point of interest: Tasting the mat
Point of interest: Tasting the mat
Though neither man is known for their offensive takedowns, I could see grappling stanzas congealing between the two in times of crisis.
Lewis – who is not beyond trying to blast through on the occasional double-leg – typically gets his takedowns from the body-lock position in the clinch, often reversing the grappling efforts that are being made on him.
The 9-year pro should also have an edge striking from clinch positions, so I’m not sure how much he will look for takedowns on Dos Santos, a man who has consistently held one of the higher takedown defense rates amongst his contemporaries for some time now.
Dos Santos wields tremendous defensive fundamentals and hustle that even made the cardio king, Cain Velasquez, dig deep despite dominating otherwise. From pushing down on his opponent’s head to creating separations from the fence, the former champion will be no easy task to control inside of scrambling exchanges.
Furthermore, I would not be surprised to see Dos Santos get offensive in the form of occasional takedowns, especially when experiencing rough weather or when trying to close a close round. Lest we forget, Dos Santos was not necessarily opposed to tactically using takedowns early on his career, stifling pressuring punchers like Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson. And considering that this will be yet another year spent training at American Top Team, the 35-year-old vet dusting off his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt wouldn’t exactly be the craziest thing in the world.
That said, Lewis’ deceptive savvy does not stop when he is off of his feet as he, too, will have tricks he can go to.
Like a sand shark lying in wait, Lewis plays a conservative game when put on his back, keeping his arms in tight for safety while waiting for the right moment to explode (usually timing his opposition when they’re in transition). Once allowed the smallest of space or momentum, Lewis will force his way to his base, turtling to a tripod position to stand.
As someone who is a fan of this style of get-up, I can tell you that it can be a nightmare to deal with when executed properly. For example, Lewis – while keeping his base firmly beneath him – will maintain an angle on his back that resembles a steep ski slope.
Although this tripod position invites back-takes to the naked eye, the downward slope Lewis keeps serves as a trap, making eager back-takers ultimately slide forward and lose position (all while allowing the Texas native to stand back up). And if Lewis is the one to reverse position and end up on top, then we could see a drastic shift in this matchup’s momentum given the hellfire of ground-and-pound “The Black Beast” can provide.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the former champion, listing Dos Santos -220 and Lewis +180 as of this writing.
Given the nature of Lewis’ game, it almost seems like you could apply the same analysis to each one of his fights: “Fighter X is more technical in almost every way than Lewis, but if Lewis can lull his opponent into his game or catch them with something clean – then the battle’s trajectory will dramatically shift into his favor.”
Now, I don’t mean to be crude toward Lewis’ skills with that example, but I would also argue that the statement holds some water with the matchup at hand. Dos Santos, who arguably holds court in most areas on paper, will still be at risk for as long as the clock ticks due to his propensity to sometimes play fast-and-loose with the shots being slung his way.
Dos Santos traditionally has shown a tendency to back himself into the fence, typically leading with his head to exit space. This habit has cost the Brazilian in both victory and defeat, usually wearing his damage poorly. Should Lewis blitz or blast off the break at the opportune time, then it could be goodnight for the former champ.
Nevertheless, I still find it hard to go against Dos Santos here. For all the question marks attached to what has been an inconsistent 3-4 year stretch, I believe that Dos Santos’ game – for all it’s perceived flaws and limitations – makes him the deserved favorite in this spot.
With the caveat of chaos that is heavyweight MMA, I’ll go ahead and pick Dos Santos to break down Lewis through the stretch of five rounds. However, given the countering nature of Lewis, I could see a scenario where Dos Santos approaches this one a bit too disciplined, producing a surprisingly slow fight in the process.
Prediction: Dos Santos inside the distance
For more on UFC on ESPN+ 4, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
