MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 32.
UFC on ESPN+ 32 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card streams on ESPN+.
Derrick Lewis (23-7 MMA, 14-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 35 Weight: 261 lbs. Reach: 79″
- Last fight: Decision win over Ilir Latifi (Feb. 8, 2020)
- Camp: 4oz. Fight Club (Texas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Legacy FC heavyweight title
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ 18 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Dangerous right hand
^ Variates between overhands and uppercuts
+ Underrated kicks and knees
^ Works well off lead side
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Improved grappling and positional awareness
^ Deceptive scrambling/getup ability
+ Devastating ground striker
Aleksei Oleinik (59-13-1 MMA, 8-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 43 Weight: 227 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: Decision win over Fabricio Werdum (May 9, 2020)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ 2x combat sambo world champion
+ Master of sports in combat sambo
+ 8 KO victories
+ 46 submission wins
+ 45 first-round finishes
+ Deceptively heavy hands
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Crafty inside the clinch
^ Sets up chokes and takedowns
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Works well from topside
+ Dangerous and diverse submissions
^ Scrambles well to secure them
+/-Aggressive pace and pressure
^ Traditionally takes damage
Point of interest: Swangin’ and bangin’
The main event in Las Vegas features a fun pairing of heavyweights who show no hesitance when it comes to swinging for the fences.
Stepping onto the scene as an unabashed brawler, Derrick Lewis has shown signs of improvements underneath the scary destructions that often take place in his fights. An athletic mover for his size, Lewis can throw accurate knees and head kicks with little signs of struggle.
A downright scary distance closer when he chooses to be, Lewis can force his opponents into the fence whether or not he lands on them, almost in a juggernaut-like fashion. With a frame that is hard to control in close, the 35-year-old slugger does his best work when striking off of the breaks, maintaining a dangerous potency in small spaces that goes deep into the fight.
Lewis also has an appetite for the counter, as he’s not beyond setting traps and playing possum in order to draw his opponents onto his uncanny power. But giving his willing dance partner in Aleksei Oleinik, I doubt that Lewis will have to worry about action coming his way.
Looking like a mercenary who stepped off of a movie set, Oleinik makes no bones about his mission once the bell rings. Aggressively stalking at a borderline lurch, the 43-year-old makes his attacks somewhat unpredictable, but at the cost of carrying a porous defense.
Luckily for Oleinik, he is a durable warrior who recovers well and is difficult to shake from his objective. Furthermore, his willingness to close the distance (albeit reckless at times), allows Oleinik to transition from wading hooks to some crafty clinch warfare.
Oleinik also has a deceptive ability to counter, occasionally timing an opponent’s kicks or crashing with their entries. Still, the battle-tested vet will play with fire should he gamble too liberally with his chin in this contest.
Next point of interest: Grappling with the beast
Point of interest: Grappling with the beast
Considering where Oleinik tends to finish fights, countering the Russian’s clinching efforts appear to be the crux of this matchup for Lewis.
Traditionally doing well against fighters who try and grapple him, Lewis wields deceptively effective counter-grappling tactics. Whether he’s hoisting his opponent up with a whizzer or shucking someone off with an underhook, Lewis has been hard to take down along the fence, as single legs or outside trips in open space seem to be what gets him grounded most.
That said, takedown attempts won’t be the only thing that the American will be forced to defend inside of clinching space.
A two-time combat sambo world champ, Oleinik makes his money inside of these close quarters. The 24-year pro can do everything from dirty boxing to double-legs against the fence from this range, but it is also a place where Oleinik’s patented Ezekiel choke can be set up from.
Despite seldom being seen in MMA, Oleinik (with an assist from his 80-inch wing span) has made the Ezekiel choke a common play in his arsenal.
While most successful Ezekiel chokes are usually accomplished from the mount, Oleinik – as seen in his bout with Viktor Pesta – can hit this choke while being mounted from the bottom. And when he gets on top, the sambo player transitions seamlessly to and from the scarf hold, a position that plays the role of both security and submission threat when applied by the right party.
Nevertheless, Oleinik will still have to complete the first task of grounding or firmly grasping his foe before he can exercise those tools – something that is easier said than done with the deceptively savvy Lewis.
Like a sand shark lying in wait, Lewis plays a conservative game when put on his back, keeping his arms in tight for safety while waiting for the right moment to explode (usually timing his opposition when they’re in transition). Once allowed the smallest of space or momentum, Lewis will force his way to his base, turtling to a tripod position to stand.
As someone who is a fan of this style of get-up, I can tell you that it can be a nightmare to deal with when executed properly. For example, Lewis – while keeping his base firmly beneath him – will maintain an angle on his back that resembles a steep ski slope.
Although this tripod position invites back-takes to the naked eye, the downward slope Lewis keeps serves as a trap, making eager back-takers ultimately slide forward and lose position (all while allowing the Texas native to stand back up). And if Lewis is the one to reverse position and end up on top, then we could see a drastic shift in this matchup’s momentum given the hellfire of ground-and-pound “The Black Beast” can provide.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding with the American, listing Lewis -210 and Oleinik +175 as of this writing.
Despite liking both fighters, I tend to find myself picking against them more often than not for all of the intangibles that their styles bring to the table. Still, even though each man seems deadset in their ways, both Lewis and Oleinik have made visible efforts in their strength and conditioning as of late, demonstrating more efficient performances overall.
Oleinik came into his last fight against former champ Fabricio Werdum at 227 pounds – a weight he has not seen since a 2012 appearance opposite Jeff Monson in M-1. And though the scale didn’t read much different for Lewis his last time out, the 10-year pro was able to show more consistency to his process and pressure in recent back-to-back wins.
Ultimately, if Lewis can avoid being submitted for the first 7-8 minutes of this contest, I see him eventually breaking down a do-or-die Oleinik.
Though I suspect that something like the scarf hold could work on Lewis should Oleinik end up on top, I believe the Russian’s willingness to play the ground game will be what ironically costs him here. If Lewis doesn’t catch Oleinik coming in with jumping switch-knees in the open or Travis Browne-style elbows along the fence, then “The Black Beast” likely finishes things on the floor in the second after surviving a couple of submission scares early.
