MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 31.
UFC on ESPN+ 31 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
Derek Brunson (20-6 MMA, 11-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 36 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: Decision win over Ian Heinisch(Aug. 17, 2019)
- Camp: Sanford MMA (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 3x Division 2 All-American wrestler
+ 11 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 14 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Dangerous left kicks and crosses
+ Strong pressure against the fence
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ 100 percent takedown defense
+ Well-rounded takedown ability
+ Underrated grappling
^ Transitions and strikes well from topside
Edmen Shahbazyan (11-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 22 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: KO win over Brad Tavares(Nov. 2, 2019)
- Camp: Glendale Fighting Club (Calfornia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Amateur boxing experience
+ High school wrestling accolades
+ Shotokan karate black belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Shows solid feel for range
+ Good boxing ability
^ Accurate shot selection
+ Fast knees and calf kicks
+ Stong inside the clinch
+ Displays decent wrestling abilities
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Serviceable transitional grappling
Point of interest: Striking with a southpaw
The main event in Las Vegas features a fun middleweight matchup between a fast-rising prospect and a veteran southpaw slugger.
Despite storming onto the UFC stage through the portal that is Dana White’s Contender Series, Edmen Shahbazyan has passed all of his subsequent tests since, commanding some deserved attention in the process.
Shahbazyan combines two of my favorite forms of striking – boxing and karate – to make for a unique middleweight threat. A Shotokan karate black belt, Shahbazyan demonstrates a solid amalgamation of both the speed and power that is associated with this more heavier-set iteration of karate, showing the inherent feel for range that is often stereotyped with traditional stylists.
Utilizing his sense of space confidently, Shahbazyan will use subtle changes in speed once establishing his reads, either firing tight jab-cross continuums down the pipe (a la Nathan Diaz or Zachary Makovsky) or looking to collapse the pocket and swarm his opposition off of extended shots.
Shahbazyan also wields deceptively fast kicks, particularly off his lead side, which seem to flow symbiotically off of his punches, whether they be in an intercepting or corralling effort. That said, Shahbazyan – like a lot of tall, traditionally based fighters – appears to have a head that’s there to be hit upon entry, as he’ll need to respect the southpaw power coming back at him.
Enter Derek Brunson
From his time spent with Jackson Wink MMA to his specialty training with muay Thai legend Manu Ntoh, Brunson has become a lot more than just an All-American wrestler who can throw his hands.
Whether Brunson is stalking opponents down with Thai marches or his subtle shuffle-step variations, the 10-year pro will put himself in prime position to land shots from the power side of his southpaw stance. Having a knack placing powerful kicks, Brunson also has improved his hands over that past few years, being particularly dangerous when punching his way in or out of the pocket.
However, despite Brunson’s previous improvements, his brawling instincts have proven to sometimes get the better of him, either costing him emphatic counters in defeat or lackluster affairs that have resulted in close decision losses.
Since suffering his last defeat at the hands of now-champion Israel Adesanya, Brunson has finally gotten himself back under the care of a big camp, hooking up with Henri Hooft and company at Sandford MMA. In the subsequent time, we have seen Brunson bring a much more measured and balanced approach to his pressure en route to his recent victories, displaying the ability to fight at a decent pace for three rounds.
Though I’m sure that experience likely will serve Brunson well on paper, I suspect that he’ll need to successfully layer his threats with offensive wrestling if he means to properly get his game going.
Next point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering the on-paper grappling and experience edge, I will be curious to see if Brunson looks to test his fresh-faced foe early with takedown threats.
Shahbazyan, who actually wrestled and placed well in high school, will offer a ton of hurdles en route to Brunson securing either his hips or legs.
From the size of Shahbazyan’s back to the short samples of savvy seen from him inside the clinch, the Armenian fighter appears to offer a lot in the form of quick knees and clever punches in and out of the breaks. And in the couple of instances where fighters have attempted to get in on Shahbazyan’s hips for takedowns, the 22-year-old talent was able to immediately compromise their grips and make them pay with strikes (or with a submission, if we’re counting his amateur record).
Still, I suspect we’ll see Shahbazyan tested in these spaces given the smaller cage at hand.
Despite having a lower takedown percentage than one might expect, Brunson does a deceptively good job of using his initial shot to force his opponents to the fence, chaining off his attacks from there. Whether he is hitting reactionary double-legs or snatching up singles, the former All-American wrestler wields a serviceable and diverse takedown game that will hopefully give us a lot of good looks at Shahbazyan’s defensive instincts.
Brunson may not have a “game over” type of ground game, but the Brazillian jiu-jitsu brown belt can transition well with strikes from topside and plays positions when he needs to. However, with grappling being another one of Shahbazyan’s base skills, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see the younger man force Brunson to hustle if he means to hold him down.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are backing the fresher face, listing Shahbazyan -330 and Brunson +270 as of this writing.
Though I don’t disagree with Shahbazyan being favored, this line is far too wide for my liking. Not only does it borderline disrespect the chances of Brunson, but we still don’t have a big enough sample size on Shahbazyan to be so certain (this is MMA, after all).
Brunson might not be the biggest middleweight by today’s standards, but he carries proven one-shot knockout power that can instantly change the course of a fight. That said, I believe that Brunson’s recent demonstrations of how to muddy a fight with southpaw pressure, accompanied by counters and wrestling threats, may be the best route to defusing a potent puncher who is still not proven in the later rounds.
As seen in Shahbazyan’s bout with Darren Stewart, the Armenian fighter’s lack of fights outside of the first round revealed potential pace management issues that the young prospect (thankfully) still has time to address. But if this fight goes late and those issues resurface, then expect this one to get ugly from round three on given that neither man has championship round experience.
Ultimately, I’ll be siding with the shorter version in regards to the projections of this battle.
Shahbazyan’s head-first nature, coupled with the smaller cage inside the UFC Apex, should make for a hot cooking surface by the time the first ring card girl takes her seat. And if exchanges reach a boiling temperature within the first round, then I suspect that Shahbazyan’s speed will be able to blindside Brunson (akin to lead-legged kicks we’ve seen land in both of their previous fights) or score at a higher rate. The pick is Shahbazyan to survive some early scares en route to a second-round TKO win.
Prediction: Shahbazyan inside the distance
