MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 3.
UFC on ESPN 3 takes place Saturday at Target Center in Minneapolis. The card airs on ESPN.
Francis Ngannou (13-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 258 lbs. Reach: 83″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Cain Velasquez(Feb 17, 2019)
- Camp: Xtreme Couture (Las Vegas, NV)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ 8 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate left hand
^ Jabs, crosses, check-hooks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Hard knees/heavy hips
+/-Developing ground game
^ Serviceable transitions/struggles off back
Junior Dos Santos (21-5 MMA, 15-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 246 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: TKO win over Derrick Lewis(March 9, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/boxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 15 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent boxing ability
^ Accurate shot selection
+ Good counter wrestler
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Shows solid positional awareness
Point of interest: Familiar senses on the feet
The main event in Minneapolis features a heavyweight showdown between two top contenders that have familiar styles on the feet.
Junior Dos Santos, who fights out of a boxing-centric stance, has long been known as a crisp striker through and through. Working behind the pressure of his jabs and left-handed feints, Dos Santos will set up devastating overhands and uppercuts – strikes that comprise the majority of the former champion’s highlight reel.
Though the Brazilian’s right hand is often known as the clean-up hitter, his left is arguably more accurate, especially when applying his hook. Often utilizing his hooks offensively off of his jabs and feints, Dos Santos does a deceptively good job of placing check hooks to cover his tracks or drawing his opponents into them through baiting fakes.
Still, countering will probably be a potent two-way street given the propensity for violence his current counterpart will bring in close quarters.
Enter Francis Ngannou.
A Cameroonian-born Parisian who practically came from nothing, the rise of Ngannou has been fascinating to watch.
A dangerous striking threat who lists himself as an orthodox fighter, the 32-year-old standout occasionally will fight from southpaw when facing wrestlers (though he really hasn’t needed to in his last few outings). Not only does the southpaw stance allow a little more play in the distance department, but it also opens up opportunities for Ngannou to land his counter left cross.
When fighting from orthodox, Ngannou – similar to his current counterpart – also prefers to conduct traffic from his left side, throwing straight or varying his patent up-jabs and check-hooks.
Utilizing feints and pivoting well within close quarters, Ngannou keeps a good sense of space, managing distance firmly when he chooses to. However, as impressive as Ngannou’s movement is, he, too, is not beyond being hit or countered with wrestling shots while coming forward (as seen in his fight with Stipe Miocic), which is what makes the striking dynamic of this battle a compelling one at all ranges.
Next point of interest: Surprise takedowns?
Point of interest: Surprise takedowns?
Given the consequences on the feet, I will be curious to see if the more veteran fighter looks to exercise his experience.
Dos Santos is not beyond getting offensive in the form of occasional takedowns, especially when experiencing rough weather or when trying to close a close round. Lest we forget, Dos Santos was not necessarily opposed to tactically using takedowns early on his career, stifling pressuring punchers like Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson. And considering that this will be yet another year spent training at American Top Team, the 35-year-old vet dusting off his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt wouldn’t exactly be the craziest thing in the world (especially with Ngannou’s recent comments).
Nevertheless, the rising star from Cameroon has proven to be difficult to take down inside of close quarters.
Ngannou is not-so-deceptively strong inside the clinch, commanding a solid base and balance for a man of his size. He also shows the competence to try and keep his opponent’s arms separated during their takedown attempts, as well as a decent sprawl in open space.
Even when on the wrong end of a beatdown against then-champion Stipe Miocic, Ngannou had quiet moments of success, where he, at the very least, was able to demonstrate that he knew the proper fundamentals of defending from the fence or using the cage to stand (when he wasn’t utterly exhausted, of course).
Nevertheless, Ngannou will need to display a prolonged urgency should Dos Santos secure any ground position on him during this contest.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the man with less miles on paper, listing Ngannou -245 and Dos Santos +205 as of this writing.
Even though I believe that any betting line with over a 2-1 spread at heavyweight is worth looking at (especially when you have a former champion as the underdog), I can see why the masses are back aboard the Ngannou Express.
Despite still not having seen the contender from Cameroon put through the same paces that Miocic pulled off back at UFC 220, his confidence – for better or worse – appears to be back intact and stronger than ever during his past two victories (over men who that were thought to be his stylistic kryptonite, no less).
Dos Santos, who arguably holds court in most areas on paper, will still be at risk for as long as the clock ticks due to his propensity to sometimes play fast-and-loose with the shots being slung his way. The former champ has traditionally shown a tendency to back himself into the fence, typically leading with his head to exit space. This habit has cost the Brazilian in both victory and defeat, usually wearing his damage poorly.
As a longtime fan of Dos Santos, I wouldn’t mind being wrong here; but the pick is Ngannou to land his patent shovel-hook in an exchange with the confident former kingpin for a first-round knockout.
Prediction: Ngannou inside the distance
For more on UFC on ESPN 3, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
