MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 29.
UFC on ESPN+ 29 takes place Wednesday at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. The card streams on ESPN+.
Anthony Smith (33-14 MMA, 8-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 31 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Submission win over Alexander Gustafsson(June 1, 2019)
- Camp: Factory-X Muay Thai (Nebraska/Colorado)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 17 KO victories
+ 12 submission wins
+ 17 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Well-rounded muay Thai arsenal
^ Effective at multiple ranges
+ Excellent clinch striker
^ Devastating knees and elbows
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Uses frame/transitions well
+ Finishes strong from back mount
+/-Only seen scorecards 4 times in 46 fights
Glover Teixeira (30-7 MMA, 13-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 40 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Decision win over Nikita Krylov(Sept. 14, 2019)
- Camp: Teixeira MMA (Danbury, CT)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 17 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 19 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid boxing technique
^ Accurate right cross and left hook
+ Good economy of movement
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Works well from single-leg
+ Improved getup urgency
^ Uses underhooks and turtles out
+ Excellent transitional grappler
Point of interest: Embracing the fire
The main event in Jacksonville features a fun matchup of light heavyweights who are very familiar with the fires of combat.
An experienced fighter for being just 31, Anthony Smith embraces more of a traditional muay Thai arsenal, bringing a well-rounded skill set of violence to the table. Carrying a menacing feel to the way in which he marches down his opposition, Smith is capable of making pressure his friend, using it to fuel his forward assaults.
Despite his long reach and frame, the Nebraska native does a deceptively good job at changing his ranges on strikes mid-stroke or combination, following fleeing opponents when appropriate. Favoring to fight on the inside, Smith keeps an array of unforgiving elbows and knees at the ready, especially when going into or off of clinch breaks.
Smith also has shown an improved jab in recent outings, using it to either set up or disrupt offense. That said, defense has not typically been Smith’s strongest suit, which means he will need to mind the returns of Glover Teixeira.
A more traditional stalker, Teixeira will steadily come forward as he, too, looks to ply pressure, pushing his opponent back and forcing them to answer any time he can. Often starting with a lead right hand, the 40-year-old Brazilian will bait his opposition into exchanging with him, all while keeping his cleanup-hitting left hook ready.
Although Teixeira will seldom throw himself out of position, leading often from your power side is a tactic that is more heavily reliant on speed, something that tends to go with age. So, with that in mind, I will be curious to see if the Brazilian vet looks to lean more on his jab and under-utilized kicks in this contest.
Next point of interest: Battle of black belts
Point of interest: Battle of black belts
Considering that both men are Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts who tend to polish their fights off on the floor, I suspect that wrestling may play a role in the positional flow.
Smith is a noted clinch striker who poses plenty of counter-wrestling threats, but his wrestling – though serviceable – is not exactly something he utilizes at all times. Teixeira, on the other hand, has a respectable offensive wrestling game that he is not shy about going to.
Wrestling since he was a youngster in Brazil, Teixeira has always possessed underrated skills in this department, effortlessly chaining off from his favored home base of the single-leg position. Teixeira also displays solid layers of defensive grappling, either stuffing initial shots or smartly re-wrestling his way back to his feet when taken down.
Even after being repeatedly rocked and dropped by Alexander Gustafsson, the Brazilian was able to immediately attack off his back and initiate an intelligent scramble that allowed him to get back into the fight.
That said, Teixeira will need to be careful whenever tripoding to turtling to stand given the back-taking abilities of Smith.
Demonstrating excellent instincts from the back mount since his days on the regional stage, Smith has always had a solid sense in regards to how to use his length, as well as his understanding of posts to properly entangle opposition. Still, when Smith is not strangling or smothering from topside, he is not beyond being stuck on bottom should he end up there.
Although his comfortability in these spots has cost him at times, Smith has shown that he can stay calm and stage comebacks from bad positions. Utilizing intelligent wrist controls, Smith can elevate his hips while he threatens with both submissions and sweeps, regardless of whether he’s working from a full or half-guard.
Nevertheless, Smith will still need to be careful when scrambling with the savvy vet, especially if he gets caught returning to his wrestling roots a la turtle position for too long.
As we’ve seen in many of Teixeira’s fights before, the Brazilian can close the show if you turtle-out or expose your back. A fluent pressure passer and positional rider, Teixeira is a master chef when it comes to cooking his opposition underneath him.
Methodically (and brutally) using ground strikes, Teixeira adds fuel to the fire as he force-feeds his opponents into head-and-arm chokes if they turn into him, or rear-naked-chokes if they turn away.
Either way, expect a hell of a ground fight.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the younger man, listing Smith -175 and Teixeira +155 as of this writing.
Maybe it’s because I really like and respect both of these fighters, but this matchup feels more like a pick’em fight for me – which means the value will be on the underdog.
Teixeira is a fighter who has been somewhat consistently written off in fights since his failed bid for the title due to his age, as many often forget about just how formidable his game still is. Despite being 40, Teixeira still looks comfortable in the pocket as he keeps his eyes open during exchanges, as well as knows when to take things to the floor.
If Teixeira shows the ability to enter space and execute takedowns early and often, then he could potentially get the jump on his younger foe and find a finish early. However, if Teixeira’s chin – which is the prime suspect for the Brazilian’s critics – fails him and starts to falter early (via elbows in clinch space), then he, too, could find himself on the wrong end of a short night.
That said, considering how we saw the crowd-less fights go this past weekend at UFC 249, I suspect that we could see both men follow suit in regards to fighting at a more measured and composed rate than usual (given the lack of audience-induced adrenaline).
For that reason, I’m going to ultimately predict a gritty fight between these two that sees them exchange both damage and positional controls throughout a 25-minute affair. And in that scenario, I suspect that Smith can squeak out the scorecards based on his prioritization of damage and Teixeira’s propensity to cut/wear it.
Prediction: Smith by decision
