MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 28.
UFC on ESPN+ 28 takes place Saturday at Ginasio Nilson Nelson in Brasilia, Brazil. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
Kevin Lee (18-5 MMA, 11-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 27 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: KO win over Gregor Gillespie (Nov. 2, 2019)
- Camp: Tristar Gym (Canada/Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Collegiate wrestler (NCAA Division II)
+ 3 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Improved overall striking
^ Footwork, fundamentals, accuracy
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Excellent offensive and reactive shots
^ Has taken down 14 of 16 UFC opponents
+ Intelligent transitional grappler
^ Positionally aware/fights hands
+ Dangerous back taker
^ Heavy hips and crushing chokes
Charles Oliveira (28-8 MMA, 16-8 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 74″
- Last fight: KO win over Jared Gordon(Nov. 16, 2019)
- Camp: Chute Boxe/Macaco Gold Team (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 18 submission wins
+ 14 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing ability
^ Accurate hooks and uppercuts
+ Solid muay Thai arsenal
^ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Strong takedowns from the clinch
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Diverse submission acumen
Point of interest: Playing with fire
The main event in Brasilia features a fun matchup between two dangerous grapplers who have proven themselves on the feet.
Coming off an emphatic knockout over Gregor Gillespie, Kevin Lee has reaffirmed the potential that many have pegged him for. Moving his camp to Tristar Gym in Canada, Lee seemingly has been sharpening his already growing arsenal.
From his footwork to fundamentals, Lee has never been shy about shifting to a southpaw stance when attacking his opponent. That said, in Lee’s last outing, he was displaying a much tighter and dedicated boxing game out of an orthodox stance, showing to sit down more on his punches.
“The Motown Phenom” utilized his long jab to set up right hands that either went over his Gillespie’s shoulder or underneath his guard. And when Lee read where his opposition’s head was going, he was quick to intercept it with a devastating switch-kick up high.
Nevertheless, despite Lee’s improved propensity to roll his head off of punches, he still not beyond being stung for his efforts – which is why Charles Oliveira makes for such an interesting matchup.
An offensive marauder who can Thai march forward behind a high guard, “Do Bronx” Oliveira offers a plethora of problems standing. The Brazilian standout also possesses a long, prodding jab that he likes to use to set up right hands and leg kicks.
Once establishing his range, Oliveira is quick to find creative elbows and destructive uppercuts that often change the complexion of a fight at the drop of a dime. However, Oliveira, too, is not beyond getting knocked off course, as his shelling guard style has traditionally opened him up to body damage.
Regardless of which man hurts the other first, you can expect the action to fall to the floor shortly after should both parties still be conscious.
Next point of interest: Protect your neck
Point of interest: Protect your neck
Given both fighter’s base of strengths, I would not be surprised to see each man try and get the jump on the other within their preferred realm. That said, each seems to thrive from the bodylock position, which means that this may come down to a battle for underhooks.
From Lee’s superb technique to his natural gifts of athleticism and reach, the former NCAA Division II national qualifier has a knack for finding the hips of his opponents. Working particularly well when able to clasp his hands for a bodylock, Lee does a great job of chaining off his takedown approaches, either taking the path of least resistance or paving one of his own.
The potential problem, however, is that establishing an underhook on Oliveira also means that you’re giving the Brazilian an overhook (as well as a possible grasp on your head).
Oliveira is masterful from most front-headlock variations, displaying the acumen to shift the dynamic of a position as he unleashes interweaving submission attempts as if he’s firing them off from an M-60 machine gun. And if Oliveira is the one working with underhooks, then he is quick to show his strength from this position by out-wrestling the often bigger and stronger party.
Nevertheless, as impressive as Oliveira’s game is, he is not beyond being outdone on the mat by a ready and willing partner – something that he’ll have standing across from him on Saturday night.
A phenomenal wrestler who seemingly embraced the submission arts early, Lee displays a preternatural ability to find and take the back in a scramble. Fueled by slick transitions and heavy hips, the 27-year old arguably crushes as much as he attempts chokes, dominantly closing off airways in a way that reminds me of a vintage B.J. Penn.
If Lee is able to establish and work from a dominant top position in this fight, then do not be surprised to see him dole out fight-changing damage. But if the American falls asleep at the steering wheel – even for a second – he’ll likely be left with a hefty bill to pay via the form of submission.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers initially opened the Brazilian as the favorite, but money has come in on the American, shifting the line to Lee -140 and Oliveira +120 as of this writing.
I can understand why Oliveira opened as the betting favorite, but I can also get why seeing a talent like Lee at plus money is tempting. We’ve seen Oliveira check out of past fights once the pressure neared a boiling point, and Lee’s not your typical wrestler given his submission savvy and growing striking skills.
However, despite my admitted bias toward wanting to see Lee do well, I still find myself leaning toward Oliveira. Both fighters have had to take hard losses throughout their UFC tenure, I just think that Oliveira has had more time to mature naturally – a process he’s quietly taken to since moving back up to 155 pounds.
Unless Lee smartly targets Oliveira’s body early and often, then I fear that he may fall into the potent pitfalls that his counterpart’s style offers by either ducking into an uppercut or shooting into a choking opportunity. I hope Lee proves this prediction wrong by surviving the storm en route to a stoppage, but the pick is Oliveira by submission in the second round.
Prediction: Oliveira inside the distance
