MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 26.
UFC on ESPN+ 26 takes place Saturday (Sunday locally) at Spark Arena in Auckland, New Zealand. The event streams on ESPN+.
Paul Felder (17-4 MMA, 9-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’10” Age: 34 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Edson Barboza (Sept. 7, 2019)
- Camp: Roufusport (Milwaukee, WI)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ CFFC lightweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Taekwondo black belt (2nd dan)
+ 10 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Diverse striking arsenal
^ Accurate spinning attacks
+ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Shows submission acumen and awareness
+ Good butterfly guard/getups
+ Devastating ground-and-pound
Dan Hooker (19-8 MMA, 9-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 75″
- Last fight: Decision win over Al Iaquinta(Oct. 5, 2019)
- Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Will switch stances
+ Works well off of lead hand
+ Accurate crosses and kicks
+ Dangerous knees and elbows
+ Improved wrestling
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Underrated grappler
^ Slick scrambling and submission acumen
Point of interest: Muay Thai maelstrom
The main event in Auckland features a fantastic clash of lightweight contenders who are very familiar with the art of eight limbs.
A muay Thai stylist who can stick and move off of pressure, Dan Hooker wields a diverse arsenal of attack. Whether he’s fighting from orthodox or southpaw, the New Zealand native can strike well from either stance, both coming forward or off the counter.
Working nicely off of a long and well-placed jab, Hooker can offensively prod with effect or attach it to the end of combinations as a disruptive check to help dissuade counters. Often following up with his patented crosses and head kicks, the 30-year-old talent will continue to vary his tempo and attacks throughout the contest, steadily building in pace and pressure.
Helping glue together Hooker’s offensive repertoire is his ability to effectively feint in space – something that I suspect he can thank Eugene Bareman and the City Kickboxing crew for. Nevertheless, despite Hooker’s noted technical improvements and inherent chin, defense has not necessarily been his strong suit, making offense a potent, two-way street.
Enter “The Irish Dragon.”
More of a come-forward stalking threat, Paul Felder can throw a diverse arsenal of attack off of feints or shuffle-steps forward. Mixing in accurate spinning attacks from his taekwondo base, Felder does well at keeping himself on balance, ready to return at the drop of a dime. And since his time spent with the great Duke Roufus at Roufusport, Felder’s style seems to be growing even more synergistically given the seemingly perfect fit.
Appearing much more comfortable entering the pocket, Felder works behind his feinting left-hand, sitting down on check hooks and elbows when appropriate. Felder has also shown an ability to fight much more tactically when he needs to, as we saw him demonstrate this by smartly honing in on James Vick’s long limbs to land calf kicks.
If Felder can find a similar chink in Hooker’s armor early, then we could see his offense and aggression grow at a healthy rate throughout the battle. But considering Felder’s propensity to cut and wear damage, then he, too, will also need to properly weigh risk versus reward whenever he is looking to push forward.
Next point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
From elbows off the break to knees in the Thai clinch, both fighters demonstrate a high competency for close-quarter-combat, seldom looking lost when it comes time to tangle and trade. And though the potential strikes in this space will keep me in bated breath, I will also be looking to see if either man has intentions to grapple.
Each fighter has upgraded his wrestling abilities in recent years, but I suspect that the more traditional wrestling shots may come from Felder, who has shown that he’s not beyond mixing the looks that he offers his opposition.
When able to establish himself on top, Felder tends to blanket the poor soul below him with hellacious elbows from a multitude of angles, which, of course, makes for a solid incentive to grapple. That said, Hooker has proven to put his long arms to good use, offering up a slew of front-choke threats that Felder will need to be mindful of.
Hooker’s wrestling and scrambling ability has also improved in recent years, showing excellent awareness of his hips, as well as the ability to snatch backs in transit. I’m not sure if Hooker can submit a sober Felder, but he may be able to fluster his foe if he can secure any sort of meaningful back mount in order to steal close rounds.
Taming Felder, however, can be a tall task no matter the grappler.
Even Charles Oliveira, who had Felder is some of his favored, front-headlock holds, was not able to fully secure submissions or positions on the American. And when Felder does find himself in negative spots like being on his back, he offers up everything from a serviceable butterfly guard to slicing elbows that help him both score and scramble to safety.
Regardless of who is initiating the offense, I suspect that the grappling stanzas between these two will be entertaining for as long as they last.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the native New Zealander, listing Hooker -145 and Felder +125 as of this writing.
Considering how close this fight is on paper, I really don’t have an issue with the betting spread above, as you could really make an argument for either man to be favored here.
Neither fighter has an on-paper experience edge in championship rounds (much less overall experience), as their well-rounded, offense-first sensibilities should keep things competitive regardless of what phase they’re fighting in. However, despite my background in taekwondo and stage acting wanting me to side with a guy like Felder, I find myself ever-so-slightly leaning the other way.
Perceived hometown advantages or travel intangibles aside, I think the similarities in both speed and (to an extent) styles could favor Hooker’s length and movement. No longer relying on a marauding muay Thai approach, Hooker has shown to more effectively fight off the back foot by countering and staying behind a disciplined, defensive jab.
Countering in MMA can always be a risky proposition given the factor of the judging trends our sport has suffered from, but it may be the smarter play when posed with a strong, forward-moving threat on the feet. Coupled with the previously mentioned fact that Felder tends to wear damage poorly, and it becomes a bit easier to imagine how Hooker could paint a persuasive picture in what should ultimately be a competitive fight.
Unless Felder can find success with calf kicks at distance or make things fight ugly in close, then I give a slight edge to Hooker’s stylistic flexibility down the stretch of five hard rounds.
Prediction: Hooker by decision
