MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 24.
UFC on ESPN+ 24 takes place Saturday at PNC Arena in Raleigh, N.C. The card streams on ESPN+.
Curtis Blaydes (12-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 28 Weight: 251 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: TKO win over Shamil Abdurakhimov (Sept. 7, 2019)
- Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Co.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ NJCAA national heavyweight wrestling title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 9 KO victories
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Diligently working striking
^ Shows fight-to-fight improvements
+ Explosive power-double takedown
^ Changes level well
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Body locks, trips, suplexes
+ Solid top game
^ Floats, wrist-rides, strikes
Junior Dos Santos (21-6 MMA, 15-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 249 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: TKO loss to Francis Ngannou(June 29, 2019)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/boxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 15 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent boxing ability
^ Accurate shot selection
+ Good counter wrestler
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Shows solid positional awareness
Point of interest: Familiar fisticuffs
The main event in Raleigh features a fun heavyweight fight with familiar themes for both parties on the feet.
Curtis Blaydes, a wrestler who carries a bit of amateur kickboxing experience, shows consistent fight-to-fight improvements each time out. From his developing footwork to his commitment to combination striking, the 28-year-old talent seems to be right at home when pressuring forward.
Whether Blaydes is working behind his jab or rolling his head off of his crosses, his time spent training at the Elevation Fight Team and BANG Muay Thai has come through in recent years. However, as we saw in both of his fights with Francis Ngannou, Blaydes is not beyond being countered for his aggressive approaches, which is what makes this matchup with a similarly-themed opponent so interesting.
Enter the old guard, Junior Dos Santos.
Fighting out of a more boxing-centric stance, Dos Santos has long been known as one of the heavyweight’s crisper strikers, formerly ruling the division with an iron fist. Working behind the pressure of his jabs and left-handed feints, Dos Santos will set up devastating overhands and uppercuts (strikes that comprise the majority of the former champion’s highlight reel).
Though the Brazilian’s right hand is often known as the clean-up hitter, his left is arguably more accurate, particularly when applying his hooks offensively off of his jabs and feints. Dos Santos also does a deceptively good job of placing check hooks to cover his tracks or drawing his opponents into them through baiting fakes –– both of which will serve him will on paper against Blaydes.
That said, Dos Santos will have to be careful about over-committing to his power shots if he means to maintain the high ground.
Next point of interest: Repaving wrestling paths
Point of interest: Repaving wrestling paths
If Dos Santos presents similarly-themed threats to Ngannou on the feet, then one could also argue that Blaydes offers wrestling-based offense akin to Cain Velasquez.
An NJCAA wrestling champion, Blaydes carries a potent heavyweight wrestling style that translates well to MMA.
Showing all the signs of an aggressive grappler since his days spent wrestling collegiately, Blaydes has always appeared to have a relentlessness in his approach. Whether he is re-wrestling for underhooks, looking for mat returns or implementing his patented blast-double takedown, Blaydes can execute like second nature (even when under heavy fire).
Although I could see him having success with his wrestling in this contest, grounding Dos Santos traditionally has been no easy task given that he’s one of the division’s all-time leaders in takedown defense.
Dos Santos wields tremendous defensive fundamentals and hustle that even made the cardio king, Velasquez, dig deep despite dominating otherwise. From pushing down on his opponent’s head to creating separation from the fence, the former champion is hard to control in close spaces and scrambles.
If Dos Santos does get taken down, the 35-year-old veteran carries a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt that he can fall back on – though he usually elects to reset to his feet instead of pursuing grappling offense. Still, I can’t help but wonder how well turtling/tripoding back to a standing position will work against a fighter who feeds himself through wrestling rides.
Blaydes, like many wrestlers, does not play for your typical jiu-jitsu positions in hopes of finding a submission, as he’d seemingly rather dismantle opposition through punishing rides that see the American unleash strikes off of smart wrist-feeds and controls. And whenever Blaydes does get his opponent’s backs flat, hellacious, skull-splitting elbows aren’t usually far behind.
Velasquez was able to use wrestling to help him beat Dos Santos, but did so by primarily working from the clinch. Should Blaydes fail on his initial takedown attempts, then we will likely see more of what he has to offer in the in-between phases of the game.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the younger man, listing Blaydes -240 and Dos Santos +200 as of this writing.
Even though I believe that any betting line with over a 2-to-1 spread at heavyweight is worth looking at (especially when you have a former champion as the underdog), I can certainly understand why Blaydes comes in as your favorite.
Sure, Dos Santos might be able to recreate his 2011 knockout over Velasquez (which looks spookily similar to Blaydes’ second loss to Ngannou), and that would be par for the course in regards to heavyweight MMA. However, if the former champ fails to find traction with his punches within the first two rounds, then I believe there’s a strong possibility we may see Dos Santos on the wrong end of another prolonged beating.
It’s hard not to love Dos Santos for his fan-friendly personality and fight stylings, but his propensity to sometimes play fast and loose with punches seemingly has cost him more and more as his career advances.
Dos Santos also has traditionally shown a tendency to back himself into the fence, typically leading with his head to exit space. This habit not only taxes the Brazilian in both victories and defeats via striking damage, but it also may put him in a particularly disadvantageous position against an opponent who will be looking to corral him and take him down.
If Dos Santos backs himself into the fence for Blaydes here, then I suspect that Blaydes will get his brutal brand of grappling and ground strikes going, forcing a stoppage down the stretch. The pick is Blaydes by fourth-round TKO.
Prediction: Blaydes inside the distance
