MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 22.
UFC on ESPN+ 22 takes place Saturday at Ginasio do Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo. The card streams on ESPN+.
Jan Blachowicz (24-8 MMA, 7-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 36 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Luke Rockhold (July 6, 2019)
- Camp: WCA Fight Team (Poland)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ KSW light heavyweight title
+ Muay Thai accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 6 knockout victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Excellent jab
+ Dangerous uppercuts and hooks
+ Will switch stances
^ Favors liver kicks from southpaw
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Submission savvy from top or bottom
Ronaldo Souza (26-7 MMA, 9-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 39 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Jack Hermansson (April 27, 2019)
- Camp: Fusion X-cel Performance (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former Strikeforce middleweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 8 knockout victories
+ 14 submission wins
+ 18 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Heavy right hand
^ Throws well off feints and shifts
+ Improved overall boxing ability
^ Variates well to the body
+ Solid wrestling skills
^ Favors takedowns along the fence
+ Dangerous in transition
^ Superb scrambles and back-takes
+ Slick submission setups
Point of interest: Entering the pressure cooker
The main event in Sao Paulo features an interesting light heavyweight matchup between two men who are familiar with pressure.
Stepping onto the UFC scene as a persistent, pressuring stalker who can come forward in combination from either stance, Jan Blachowicz has steadily developed into a deceptively effective counter striker when he wants to be. In the heat of combat, the Pole packs a mean uppercut-hook return that he keeps on a hair-trigger, something he was able to show against both Jared Cannonier and Jimi Manuwa.
Blachowicz also employs a stiff and serviceable jab that he quietly uses to string together his offense, which may help him stave off the aggression coming his way. When he’s feeling in stride, the 36-year-old has no issue shifting to southpaw to deliver crushing liver kicks.
However, given his current counterpart, I suspect that Blachowicz may shelf kick attempts that are south of a headshot.
Enter Ronaldo Souza.
A marauding, athletic phenom who has consistently improved his striking since his days on the Strikeforce scene, Souza can truly call himself a multi-dimensional threat.
Steadily stalking his prey with palpable pressure, Souza will use feints to bait opponents into exchanging with him. Once able to get a bite, he will typically unleash a wicked counter cross or change his level to shoot for a takedown. Souza also occasionally shifts to southpaw when he needs to, often accompanying this move with a check hook for safety (something that could come in handy considering the success Thiago Santos had in his fight with Blachowicz).
When Souza senses that he has someone hurt, the 16-year veteran has no problem letting his hands fly liberally, varying in between uppercuts and hooks along the way. And in Souza’s last few outings, he’s displayed upgraded boxing techniques and sensibilities, incorporating more inside slips and left hooks to the liver (both of which play very well off of his patented right hand).
Still, the pressure that Souza brings usually comes with a tangible price tag to go along with the gas that it requires, which means that this battle – which will see Souza carrying 20 more pounds than usual – should get even more intriguing the longer it goes.
Next point of interest: Jacare’s world
Point of interest: Jacare’s world
Given that, regardless of weight class, there are little-to-no names that you can confidently give the grappling edge to opposite of Souza, it’s hard to argue that the ground is not “Jacare’s” world.
Souza, who was already an athletic standout as a jiu-jitsu competitor, smartly sharpened his wrestling chops throughout the years, melding his grappling style into one solid sword.
Already a natural when it came to understanding technique, it was the wrestling and athleticism of Souza that often elevated him amongst his contemporaries in the first place. Now, over a decade later, you almost forget that the Brazilian ever wore a gi with the way in which he translated his no-gi game into MMA.
Whether he is shooting a reactive takedown in the open or hitting a double-leg against the fence, Souza is smart about when to close distance. Still, despite not being the biggest fan of leaning on traditional fight stats, I can’t help but wonder how Souza’s 29-percent takedown accuracy will translate up at 205 pounds – particularly against this opponent.
Since amassing his recent run of momentum, Blachowicz has reestablished his full-time training camp in Warsaw, a place where the Pole has been able to tighten up his wrestling chops.
Now, Blachowicz appears much more competent and comfortable when changing levels to counter aggression or when setting up and chaining takedowns of his own. More importantly, Blachowicz’s improvements have also translated defensively, demonstrating solid defensive fundamentals when fending off the likes of offensive wrestlers like Devin Clark or Luke Rockhold.
Blachowicz is also a proven Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who not only is proficient in transition and from top position but also is deceptively capable and flexible from the bottom when having to go for submissions or scramble opportunities.
Still, not all Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts are created equal in MMA, and there may be no better example of that than “Jacare.” Even when watching him grapple with a g
i on, you could easily see why Souza would make his plunge into the mixed martial arts scene.
Effortlessly floating to and from his favored base of operations that is the half guard, the 39-year-old stalwart will exercise his options like a kid in a candy store. Whether Souza is using a kimura to advance to side control or a head-and-arm choke to cut to mount, Blachowicz will likely be in a special kind of quicksand should he find himself this deep into the Brazilian’s game.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
Despite some money coming in on the underdog, the oddsmakers and public still seem to be siding with the bigger man, listing Blachowicz -190 and Souza +165 as of this writing.
Considering the regard that I and many hold Souza in (as well as the fact that this fight will be taking place in Brazil), I’m not surprised to see support coming in for the beloved Brazilian.
Blachowicz may be experienced in his own right, but he’s never felt the unique experience of fighting a Brazilian (icon, no less) in Brazil. Blachowicz has arrived in Sao Paulo early and appears to be taking this opportunity seriously (as he doesn’t strike me as the type of guy to lose mental focus easily), so I have much fewer questions when it comes to him.
Souza, however, is a different story.
Not only does Souza carry the obvious intangible of an extra 20 pounds (and that’s not including the additional weight opposite of him, mind you), but we still aren’t exactly sure of how his style will translate to this division.
There are some fight analysts, like Connor Ruebusch and Phil Mackenzie, who pose a general theory that fighters who move up in weight to primarily grapple (Kevin Lee, Chris Weidman or Luke Rockhold) generally do worse than fighters who move up to utilize speed and striking (Kelvin Gastelum, Robert Whittaker, etc.) – and I tend to agree.
So, if we’re using this theory as a general rule of thumb, Souza may actually have more potent paths to success by staying on the feet in this fight, utilizing his speed and ability to explode into slipping and ripping counters. The potential problem, though, may be the fact that Souza’s new striking style also seems to come with an attitude toward damage that could eventually turn into a coffin nail-like situation for a fighter in the latter stages of their career.
Win or lose, we’ve seen an uptick in the damage trends for Souza as he repeatedly attempts to slip on the inside and go to the body of his opposition. And even though Souza knows how to fight well when tired, the Brazilian vet’s somewhat-suspect gas tank seems to leave him swinging with a body language that makes it difficult for judges to give him rounds. Add in Blachowicz’s ability to feed Souza straight shots and counters, and I’m not sure I like where this road leads for the former Strikeforce champ.
Ultimately, regardless of style equations or theories, I can’t help but be skeptical of any fighter who finds themselves in a five-round main event for their first fight in a new division. Perceived “hometown” advantage or not, it is not smart to test the handling of a new vehicle at the highest of speeds no matter how familiar you are with the track. For that reason, I’ll side with Blachowicz to break Souza down with straight shots early, finding a finish off the breaks in rounds three or four.
