MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 19.
UFC on ESPN+ 19 takes place Saturday at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. The card streams on ESPN+.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 32 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Valentina Shevchenko (Dec. 8, 2018)
- Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ 5x muay Thai champion
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 1 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
^ Shifts, half-steps, pivots
+ Technically sound striker
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Accurate jabs and leg kicks
+ Superb defensive and offensive clinch
^ Solid head positioning and forearm framing
+ Underrated grappling IQ
^ Good getup technique/urgency
Michelle Waterson (17-6 MMA, 5-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’3″ Age: 33 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 62″
- Last fight: Decision win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz(March 30, 2019)
- Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Invicta FC atomweight title
+ Karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 3 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Accurate shot selection
+ Diverse kicking attacks
^ Works well off of lead leg
+ Solid Thai clinch
^ Hard knees and elbows
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Underrated submission game
Point of interest: Kicks and counters
A technical striker who is no stranger to the threat of counter strikes, Joanna Jedrzejczyk typically likes to start the proverbial party behind her patented jab. Throwing it actively and accurately, the development of the former champion’s jab dates back to the beginning of her career and has been a crucial tool for her success.
Like many muay Thai strikers transitioning into MMA, Jedrzejczyk was extra mindful of takedowns early on, subsequently avoiding throwing kicks comfortably until her very first UFC strawweight title defense. Now, showing competence and confidence in her anti-grappling abilities, the 32-year-old pro will use her jab more for setups rather than safety, confidently attaching well-placed leg kicks and punches to punctuate her presence.
Still, despite Jedrzejczyk’s ability to damage legs, she may have to alter her approach when facing a fighter who actively switches stances and carries takedown threats in their back pocket.
A karate practitioner since the age of 10, Michelle Waterson is no stranger to the kicks that reside in the striking realm. Competing in MMA for over a decade, Waterson has shown slightly different iterations of her arsenal throughout the years, steadily evolving from her original base of American-freestyle karate.
Incorporating more muay Thai in the later parts of her career, Waterson displays an ability to delegate her kicking styles uniquely.
Like many karate strikers, the 12-year pro works well off of her lead leg, and she throws the front and round kicks you would expect from a fighter with that background. Waterson can also seamlessly switch her kicking style, often parlaying missed Thai kicks into sidekicks.
However, when it comes to counters, both ladies are not beyond being hit at boxing range – which makes the pocket the place where this battle’s trajectory could change.
Next point of interest: Conquering the clinch
Point of interest: Conquering the clinch
A place where each fighter seems to find themselves in, I suspect that the clinch will be a key junction in this fight.
Although Waterson was initially defensive in the clinch early on in her career, her confidence, as well as attack options, have since increased as wrestling has become a much more visible presence in the Jackson-Wink product’s game. Now able to chain takedowns more effectively, Waterson can present different threats to accompany her usual bodylock options of hip tosses and trips.
Still, taking down Jedrzejczyk – particularly at strawweight – is not the easiest task from the clinch (especially if you’re not able to catch her off-guard in the open).
Whether she is inside the clinch or free to operate on the feet, seldom will you see Jedrzejczyk out of position or off-balance, which is why her takedown defense rating is so high at this weight class. Jedrzejczyk is also diligent when it comes to her head position in close quarters, something that helps the former champion disrupt her opponent’s grappling efforts and makes her difficult to hit.
Assisting in this defensive wall is her subtle, but effective forearm framing. When getting ready to break off and strike, the Polish fighter will replace her forehead position with her forearms, creating just enough space for devasting short-elbows to follow. But with Waterson also being offensively savvy from the clinch, I suspect that Jedrzejczyk will be more focused on her defense and ability to stay upright.
If Waterson manages to get this fight to the floor, she has shown the ability to win rounds with control time. That said, I’m not sure how well she will be able to settle in on top given her opposition at hand.
Not only does Jedrzejczyk do well with things like using the fence to stand safely, but she also favors the single-leg getup, a technique that I think is still underutilized in MMA.
Whether Jedrzejczyk ends up grounded in full-guard or side control, she typically shrimps to half-guard so that she can swim inside for a single-leg grasp. From here, the former champion will use the leverage created from this grip in a similar spirit to an underhook get-up.
Akin to Demian Maia’s half-guard series, Jedrzejczyk keeps her grasp low, which protects her from your typical guillotine or D’Arce choke counters. But, unlike Maia, the Polish fighter will use this leverage to stand and separate rather than re-wrestle, something that will serve her well in this fight given Waterson’s ability to fight from her back.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are still heavily favoring the former strawweight champ, listing Jedrezjczyk -300 and Waterson +250 as of this writing.
I say “still” because this betting line was initially wider until recent news broke regarding Jedrzejczyk’s camp’s uncertainty about her hitting the strawweight limit on the scales Friday. And with Waterson’s camp shutting down the possibility of a catchweight contest, it appears that the fight will continue on as scheduled (with Jedrzejczyk personally promising she will make it to the scale one way or another).
So, from a betting perspective, I can totally understand why some are taking a closer look at the live dog in Waterson. Not only is Waterson a well-rounded martial artist who presents threats both standing and on the floor, but she also carries a resiliency not often carried by her contemporaries – something that, I believe, has allowed her to thrive for so long.
However, despite the improvements to both Waterson’s size and skill, I’m still not sure I see her being able to take down or push a pace on Jedrzejczyk without landing a surprise on the feet first. And though Waterson has more than enough skills on paper to make her opponent pay standing, most of the women who have found moments of success striking with Jedrzejczyk have either been technically superior boxers (e.g. Rose Namajunas) or reckless fighters who make their money at boxing range (e.g. Jessica Andrade, Karolina Kowalkiewicz) –– neither of which being Waterson’s M.O.
Furthermore, Waterson, herself, is also not beyond finding herself on the wrong end of boxing exchanges, with right hands being her common culprit. It’s hard not to root for the self-proclaimed “mom champ,” but if Waterson doesn’t pave a path for herself within the first two rounds, then I see Jedrzejczyk’s jab opening up the rest of her arsenal as she pulls away down the stretch of a competitive affair.
