MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 18.
UFC on ESPN+ 18 takes place Saturday at Royal Arena in Copenhagen, Denmark. The card streams on ESPN+.
Jack Hermansson (20-4 MMA, 7-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Jacare Souza (April 27, 2019)
- Camp: Frontline Academy (Norway)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Wrestling base
+ 11 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Long and accurate jab
+ Hard leg and body kicks
+ Strong clinch game
^ Dirty boxing, trips, takedowns
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Works well from front-headlock
+ Active and attacking guard
+ Superb ground striker
Jared Cannonier (12-4 MMA, 5-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 35 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77.5″
- Last fight: TKO win over Anderson Silva(May 11, 2019)
- Camp: MMA Lab (Arizona)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ 8 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Solid footwork
^ Shifts stances and takes angles
+ Good combination striker
^ Variates attacks and levels
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Serviceable grappling ability
+ Shows improved getups/scrambles
+ Works well from topside
^ Heavy ground-and-pound
Point of interest: Jabbing with “The Joker”
The main event in Copenhagen features an intriguing matchup of red-hot middleweights who hold power in their hands.
Signing up for fights almost as fast as he starts them, Jack Hermansson has a penchant for putting a pace on his opposition as of late.
Working behind the bounce in his step, the 31-year-old Swede will pressure his opponents with fakes and feints, gathering his distance through prodding jabs. Once finding his range, Hermansson has little issue launching his right hand in the form of overhands or uppercuts, and can also counter well with short shots on the inside.
Hermansson also wields a solid left hook when coming forward but arguably throws it better as a check, which could come in handy against the aggressive nature that Jared Cannonier brings to the table.
Steadily developing his game since stepping onto the UFC scene, Cannonier has made marked improvements under the care of John Crouch and the rest of the coaching staff at The MMA Lab. Now, moving much more smoothly, Cannonier can shift his stance pre or post-combination, punctuating his presence with greater effect than before.
Typically utilizing pressure to create openings for offense, Cannonier keeps hard shots on a hair-trigger, ready to come forward or counter at the drop of a dime. The eight-year pro has also seemingly picked up his stablemates knack for throwing the calf kick (or low leg kick), something that could serve him well with an opponent who leans heavily on both his movement and lead leg.
Next point of interest: Grappling with the Gorilla
Point of interest: Grappling with the “Gorilla”
Given where the biggest discrepancies lie on paper, I would not be surprised to see Hermansson attempt to implement his grappling game early and often.
Coming from a solid base in Greco-Roman wrestling, Hermansson has a nice variety of trips and tosses he looks to set up whenever he is not unloading in the dirty boxing department. Keen on upper-body attacks, Hermansson works well from the body lock while using slick foot sweeps for assists, but is not beyond changing levels to hit reactive shots in space.
That said, Hermansson cannot afford to underestimate the defenses of Cannonier, who has made noticeable improvements in both the grappling and counter-wrestling departments.
Against David Branch, we not only saw how Cannonier’s strength stacks up at 185 pounds, but we also saw him utilizing underhooks and cage defense more properly than before. And though the former heavyweight tended to retain guard a bit too much for my liking when it comes to MMA, he has recently shown that he can create space and scrambles when necessary, either by putting his feet on the hips and pushing off or turtling to stand from trouble spots.
The potential problem with that approach, however, is that Cannonier may not get away with these techniques as easily down at middleweight.
Cannonier, in his defense, was able to thwart the back takes of Branch (who tried to abuse him anytime he turtled), but turtling can also allow for front-headlock grasps, which just so happen to be a specialty of Hermansson. Should Cannonier allow himself to get too entangled or end up underneath his European counterpart, then he could find himself in some serious trouble.
Although Hermansson’s title of ‘best ground-and-pounder’ is a self-proclaimed one, it is far from a joke for the man who fights out of Norway.
A superb transitional grappler, Hermansson is a heavy top-player who can seamlessly ride and pass under the guise of unforgiving ground strikes – a process that has helped him secure victories over credentialed black belts. Hermansson also has an impressive guard game that he keeps in his back pocket, but I doubt he tries to dust it off against the one man in this division who can hold a candle to his ability to generate power on the floor.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are currently siding with the Swede, listing Hermansson -235 and Cannonier +195 as of this writing.
Although Cannonier is a fighter I’ve been wrong about before, I can’t help but agree with/understand the betting spread listed above. I’ve been high on Hermansson since seeing him under the Cage Warriors banner, but the way in which he was able to put everything together against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza for five rounds (on short notice, no less) was nothing short of incredible.
Don’t get me wrong: Cannonier’s counter-wrestling improvements cannot be slept on, nor should his ability to sleep a man with the power he packs in his hands. If he can catch Hermansson with something clean early to stumble the Sweedish-born fighter’s start, then I could see Cannonier start to further assert himself and take over this fight.
Still, I have a hard time betting against Hermansson – who has really seemed to get a grasp on his admitted anxiety issues that, perhaps, contributed to his volatile starts of the past. For that reason, I’ll side with Hermansson to stay focused and do what he needs to here, earning himself either a stoppage or submission on the floor by the fourth round.
