MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 17.
UFC on ESPN+ 17 takes place Saturday at Mexico City Arena in Mexico City. The card streams on ESPN+.
Yair Rodriguez (11-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 26 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 71″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Chan Sung Jung (Nov. 10, 2018)
- Camp: Mario Delgado BJJ (Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” Season 1 winner
+ Tae kwon do black belt
+ 10th Planet Jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 5 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Athletic and explosive mover
+ Dynamic kicking attacks
^ Variates stance and style
+ Shows improvements at boxing range
^ Fundamentals to fancy counters
+ Serviceable wrestling and scrambling
+ Active and attacking guard
^ Excellent leg dexterity
Jeremy Stephens (28-16 MMA, 16-15 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 33 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Zabit Magomedsharipov(March 2, 2019)
- Camp: Alliance MMA (San Diego)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 18 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ Well-conditioned/good recovery
+ Heavy right hand
^ Overhands and uppercuts
+ Hard kicks and knees
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Strong hips and base
+ Solid submission defense
^ Good grip and hand-fighting
+ Devastating ground striker
Point of interest: Chasing storms
The main event in Mexico City features a fun storm of featherweight strikers.
Not one to say no to a gunfight, Jeremy Stephens has traditionally worn his brawling sensibilities like a merit badge. And while fans and pundits may fuel that narrative even further, we have steadily seen technical improvements from the 33-year-old since his initial move to Alliance MMA.
Mixing in a healthy dose of feints to his footwork, Stephens has added to the effectiveness of his pressuring approach. Incorporating more kicks into his repertoire, the Iowa native will smartly work in assaults to both the body and legs of his opposition once establishing his range.
Over the past few years, we’ve seen Stephens attack opponents legs with impunity from the opening bell. More specifically, we saw Stephens target their lower leg extremities with calf kicks, a tactic that has been growing in popularity in recent years.
Targeting the tibial region of the leg is not only a painful attack that’s difficult to defend against, but it is also harder to counter off of given the flexibility of range that it allows for the attacker. Although these attacks could serve Stephens well give his current counterpart’s length, sharp strikers who can stick, move and counter have traditionally been Stephens’ common culprit in losses.
Enter Yair Rodriguez.
A dynamic, storm-riding striker, Rodriguez unabashedly translates his tae kwon do skills at a high level. From front kicks to aerial assaults, Rodriguez can execute high-wire offense at the drop of a dime. And though this style of fighting can require a fair share of space, the 26-year-old talent has done a better job of incorporating more punches into his repertoire.
Up until his last outing, you could argue that Rodriguez – despite his dazzling displays and ability to switch stances – was a one-sided fighter, primarily relying on his right side to attack. However, as we saw in his fight with Chan Sung Jung, Rodriguez has made use of his lengthy stints between fights, demonstrating much better boxing fundamentals than before.
Whether he was throwing counter crosses from southpaw or hitting check hooks out of his orthodox stance, Rodriguez has become much more adept at using his left hand. That said, the original “TUF Latin America” winner still showed some defensive holes in the pocket during his war with the “Korean Zombie” that Stephens will likely try his hand at any time he steps into the eye of the storm.
Next point of interest: Wrestling warfare
Point of interest: Wrestling warfare
Considering the chaotic storm that will likely ensue on the feet, do not be shocked if this hurricane moves south toward the mat.
Whether it be opportunistic takedowns or otherwise, each fighter carries underrated skills within the wrestling realm.
Stephens, who originally came up in Iowa, is no stranger to the integration of wrestling into his MMA game. Although he is often found playing defense in the clinch due to stylistic matchups, the 14-year pro is not opposed to getting offensive outside of his normal knees and elbows if given the opportunity.
The Alliance product has gotten better about using his offensive wrestling, occasionally going to his serviceable double-leg to stamp close rounds. But considering that this opponent – like his last – keeps a well-timed level change in his back pocket, we could see Stephens on the receiving end should he not mind his position coming forward.
Coming onto the UFC scene with a natural gusto, Rodriguez was able to dive confidently into the grappling arts. Between an initial focus on his wrestling, Rodriguez experimented with grappling inclinations early on his career, finding success through athletic creativity fueled by his already impressive leg dexterity.
That said, Rodriguez’s sometimes wild ways (especially when opting to fight from bottom or go for leglocks) have put him in precarious positions before. In fact, since suffering a crushing defeat to Frankie Edgar back at UFC 211, the Mexican prospect has appeared to be more careful in picking and choosing his battles – something that will he need to do against Stephens, a man with vaunted ground-and-pound from topside.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
Although the oddsmakers initially opened the younger fighter as the favorite, the public seemingly pushed the line to a pick’em, listing Rodriguez and Stephens at roughly -115 apiece as of this writing.
Given that this fight is taking place in Mexico, one can’t help but suspect that this is a matchup where the promotion is setting up the younger prospect to shine over a veteran in front of a home crowd.
Not only has Rodriguez gone five rounds at altitude twice before, but he also carries the trend of fight-to-fight improvements in his favor considering his age and recent time off. Still, regardless of your pick, I warn anyone who is writing off Stephens in this spot.
Sure, Stephens may be a fighter who made his UFC debut back when Chuck Liddell was still champion, but he has been able to stick around due to his ability to endure and adjust, as the promotion’s junkyard dog can now work his own leash.
Whether it be his victories over Doo Ho Choi or Josh Emmett, Stephens has proven he can hang with the fresh faces of the division. And with the recent enlistment of Tony Ferguson to help him shore up his nagging footwork standing, I will be extra curious to see what iteration of Stephens we get on Saturday.
Stephens, who is seldom ever seen tired or taking deep breathes, has also been conducting the last month of his training camp at elevation in Mexico to help prepare for the altitude. If Rodriguez isn’t able to catch the durable, battle-tested vet with something serious early, then he may find himself having to consistently win rounds while being on the wrong side of pressure.
Rodriguez’s athleticism has bailed him out of some tight spots before, but even his explosive ability and endurance need its time to recoup (which is where I believe the proverbial tortoise will catch up to the hare). Despite Rodriguez probably getting off to a fast and furious start, I ultimately see Stephens catching up with him by the third or fourth rounds, forcing a stoppage by strikes.
