MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 15.
UFC on ESPN+ 15 takes place Saturday at Universiade Sports Center in Shenzhen, China. The main card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN.
Jessica Andrade (20-6 MMA, 11-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’2″ Age: 27 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 62″
- Last fight: KO win over Rose Namajunas (March 11, 2019)
- Camp: Parana Vale Tudo (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC strawweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Muay Thai blue belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ High-volume striker
^ Combinations and bodywork
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Trips, throws, high-crotch lifts
+ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Solid top game
^ Pressures, postures, strikes, passes
Weili Zhang (19-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 30 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
- Last fight: Decision win over Tecia Torres (March 2, 2019)
- Camp: Black Tiger Fight Club (China)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Wushu sanda background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 9 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 10 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Wide variation of striking arsenal
^ From fundamentals to spinning attacks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Elbows, knees, trips, tosses
+ Shows serviceable wrestling and scrambling
+ Solid transitional grappling
^ Works well from top and bottom
Point of interest: Prominent pressure
The main event in Shenzen features a potentially historic strawweight title fight between two aggressive fighters who are no stranger to pressure.
Coming out like the proverbial bull in a china shop, the newly-minted champion Jessica Andrade is your quintessential pressure-fighter.
Akin to the female version of John Lineker, Andrade is most effective when able to get her opposition on the back foot and fleeting toward the fence. Once able to corral her opponent in between the cage and inner-black octagon lines, the 27-year-old Brazilian will unleash in left-to-right continuums, variating well to the body with regularity.
Still, in chasing her prey down the two-way street of pressure, Andrade will traditionally open herself up to counters. And though Andrade has been able to take the offerings that have come her way thus far in this division, she may want to be careful about trying her luck too willingly in this matchup.
Enter Weili Zhang.
Though listed as a fighter who hails from a wushu sanda background, Zhang may as well have been built in a lab given all the skills she shows to possess as a fighter. The strawweight standout can either come forward aggressively behind a high guard or counter competently while staying light on her feet, all while using feints to open up kicks and hooking combinations.
Like many sanda practitioners, Zhang is also not shy when it comes to using spinning attacks. Whether she’s corralling her opponents into turning sidekicks or countering with spinning backfists, the 30-year-old seems confident striking from multiple roles and ranges.
That said, given that Zhang will be facing her most formidable forward-moving threat to date, I will be curious to see if Andrade’s pressure forces her to lean heavily on her kicks and counters or makes the Chinese challenger try her luck by locking up in the clinch.
Next point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering the potential collisions that exist between these two on paper, I would not be surprised to see this battle end up hinging upon who wins out the wrestling portions of clinch exchanges.
Arguably one of the most violent takedown practitioners in any division, Andrade is certainly not shy when it comes to opportunities to toss her opposition into the air.
The strawweight champ works well from bodylock variations and can change her level in the open but does her best work from a head-outside single (a technique that allows her strength to shine through as she almost hoists her opposition at will). Once able to get things to the ground, Andrade employs a positional assault that involves posturing, passing and striking with impunity.
However, with Zhang showing to be a legitimate threat off of her back, I will be curious to see how willing Andrade is to execute emphatic takedowns.
The Brazilian has come a long way since her submission losses at bantamweight, as Andrade is now a fully-fledged brown belt in jiu-jitsu. But as the old adage goes, not all jiu-jitsu ranks are created equal in MMA.
Though a Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt in her own right, Zhang displays a strong, well-rounded game that impresses me more than any of her on-paper accolades do. Still, her sanda background comes in handy when hanging out in the clinch, as she can hit slick trips at the drop of a dime.
Zhang can also shoot for takedowns in the open if she pleases, but – like Andrade – tends to get her best work done along the fence. And if Zhang fails on an attempt, she is quick to strike off the break and look for more opportunities.
Even if Andrade’s submission defense has improved, she’ll still need to mind her failed shots and scrambles, as Zhang appears to look for the back like its second nature. But with both women holding incredibly high takedown defense rates, each fighter will likely have to work a lot harder than they’re used to in order to win out the grappling exchanges.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the champion, listing Andrade -190 and Zhang +165 as of this writing.
Although some might think this betting line should be a bit wider, I actually think that it could be slightly closer for my money. Zhang is someone whom I’ve labeled as a dark horse since I saw her entering the organization and would not be shocked to see her score the upset here (as I’d probably outright pick her if this matchup took place a year from now).
She displays the kicks and countering tools (like her check hook) that could spell trouble for the forward-rushing champion, as well as shows the grappling skills from guard work to back-takes that could tax Andrade should she make a mistake in transition.
That said, defense – akin to Andrade – seems to be the glaring hole for Zhang. The difference between the two, however, is that we have more of a sample size of seeing Andrade absorb blows (something she’s been able to do without blinking an eye thus far at this weight). Whereas Zhang, though appearing freakishly strong and spirited, has been arguably stunned by right hands against both Danielle Taylor and Tecia Torres.
Zhang will also be having to deal with the vaunted output of Andrade in a potential five-round affair, which is a call we’ve not seen Zhang have to answer in or out of the UFC yet. I suspect Zhang will get off to a great start in this fight (as many of Andrade’s opponents often do), but if she fails to find/plant the seeds for a finish early, then I see Andrade’s pace and pressure allowing her to pull away late.
