MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 14.
UFC on ESPN 14 takes place Saturday at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The event airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
Robert Whittaker (20-5 MMA, 11-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 29 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 73.5″
- Last fight: Knockout loss to Israel Adesanya(Oct. 5, 2019)
- Camp: Gracie Jiu-jitsu Smeaton Grange (Australia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ Hapkido and karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Australian National Wrestling Championships gold medal
+ 10 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and distance management
^ Quickly and deceptively blitzes
+ Accurate left hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Unique angles and off-beat attacks
^ Disrupts opponents’ rhythm
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Improved overall grappling
+/- 3-0 against UFC-level southpaws
Darren Till (18-2-1 MMA, 6-2-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 27 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 74.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Kelvin Gastelum(Nov. 2, 2019)
- Camp: Team Kaobon (Liverpool, Eng.)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ K-1 European title
+ Luta Livre purple belt
+ Thai boxing experience
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate left hand
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Hard Thai kicks
^ Works well to the body
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Dangerous elbows and knees
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Serviceable grappling skills
Point of interest: Finding the left hand
The main event for UFC on ESPN 14 features a fantastic middleweight matchup between two men who make a lot of their money off their left hands – but do so in different ways.
Coming from a traditional martial arts background, Robert Whittaker has developed into one of the more unique striking stylists at 185 pounds.
Using a combination of speed, accuracy and a fluid economy of movement, the Australian will deceptively blitz off different angles that he actively looks to set. Like many karate-based strikers, Whittaker will feint or show a certain speed to draw his opponent into a false sense of security, only to disrupt the perceived timing with off-beat strikes.
The former champ also has no issue when it comes to sticking to his fundamentals, building offense off of deceptive jabs and feints – though I suspect his jabbing lanes could be muddied given the stance pairing at hand.
Though able to fight from both stances, Whittaker primarily operates out of orthodox, as he seems to somewhat enjoy the open stance look (currently standing at 3-0 when pitted against UFC-level lefties).
As we’ve seen in previous southpaw pairings, Whittaker will often assert himself through rear-legged front kicks that he uses to launch himself into advantageous angles in order to land variations of left hooks and shifting overhand shots. This theme of drop-stepping/shifting can be useful when trying to find creative ways to close distance on longer opponents who tend to fight from opposite stances (something we’ve seen work against his current counterpart before).
Nevertheless, Whittaker is not beyond being taxed for these very entries, as it’s not crazy to suspect that counter strikers could be his kryptonite.
Enter Darren Till.
Embodying his own version of muay Thai spirit, Till mixes in a unique brand of southpaw swagger that is reined in by head coach Colin Heron. Despite the bravado that the Englishman exudes, Till smartly works behind subtle feints and solid footwork while creating angles that allow him to capitalize and counter on his opponent’s reactions.
Favoring his crafty left cross, Till possesses a pull-counter that is slightly akin to another famous European southpaw, typically stunning his opposition when landing it cleanly. The 27-year-old also throws left Thai kicks that tend to flow off of his left-handed threats, but he could get more than he bargains for should he throw them nakedly (without setup) against his current counterpart.
That said, I do suspect we may continue to see more weapons and tactics brought to the table by Till. Admittedly fighting through injuries during the main stretch of his UFC tenure, Till seemed to limit himself to just a few choice weapons.
In his defense, Till has tried to open up in more recent efforts, whether it be by showing moves like oblique kicks or staying much more active with his right hand. Though both of those will serve him well in theory, I will be curious to see if any of his adjustments come within the clinching department – a place that Till was quietly effective in when making his middleweight debut.
Next point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Point of interest: Potential grappling threats
As we saw in Till’s last fight opposite Kelvin Gastelum, the English fighter was able to smartly utilize the clinch to shut down striking and ensure that the grappling was happening on his terms.
Although this approach is a simple one that’s seldom executed cleanly in MMA, Till may still hit some turbulence if he miscalculates his wrestling efforts with Whittaker.
The Australian native may not have the typical American accolades as Till’s last opponent, but wrestling is something Whittaker has long been dedicated to behind the scenes.
Before his last camp, Whittaker’s coach compared his fighter to the great Georges St-Pierre, citing the quiet progression of his overall skills – particularly his wrestling. The 29-year-old quietly won a gold medal at the Australian National Wrestling Championships back in 2017, and took first at a Commonwealth Games qualifier later that year (though he was unable to follow through and represent Australia due to UFC contract obligations).
Said wrestling work, however, has shown up more and more in Whittaker’s career, albeit primarily applied in a defensive manner considering his stylistic run of opponents. The 11-year pro is among the likes of Max Holloway when it comes to smartly disrupting grips to defend takedowns as a second layer of sorts (falling right behind his footwork, of course) and separating after.
Should Whittaker’s defensive capabilities portend his offensive wrestling abilities, then Till may have to dig deep into his bag of skills.
Demonstrating a solid (and I dare say underrated) takedown defense during his time in the octagon, Till does not wield a grappling base that you would stereotype with his region.
Coming from a Luta Livre background (a grappling style more synonymous with catch wrestling than Brazilian jiu-jitsu), Till demonstrates excellent positional awareness and disciplined hand-fighting, a technique that helps him defend takedowns, as well as allows him to unleash unforgiving elbows when topside.
From the bottom, the Liverpudlian generally displays decent craft and composure when put on his back, and will usually not stick around too long to see how things play out (outside of his fight with Tyron Woodley, of course). Instead, Till will typically elect to turtle-out to his base and work to stand from there.
The potential problem, however, is that if Till goes that route in scrambling scenarios, he does risk giving his back in transit – something that his opponent is not shy about abusing.
Not only has Whittaker worked on his wrestling in recent years, but he’s also earned himself a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in the process, as I suspect we’re dealing with an even sharper version of the Whittaker that we saw swarm Uriah Hall.
Still, I wouldn’t quite count on Whittaker controlling Till, as even Jorge Masvidal had a difficult time out-foxing the Englishman inside of their brief scrambles. In fact, I suspect we see both parties act accordingly and urgently inside of scrambling scenarios, which should be fun for as long as they last.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be favoring the former champion, listing Whittaker -120 and Till +100 as of this writing.
Between the way England backs its fighters at the betting window to the way this sport treats a losing fighter, then I guess it’s no surprise to see that this fight is closely lined with a majority of the money coming in on Till.
That said, despite my official record of picking against him more than in his favor, I can totally understand Till’s appeal, as there’s a lot to like in this spot. Whether you’re a fan of Till’s newfound attitude and possibilities at 185 pounds or are sold on the narrative that counter striking could be Whittaker’s kryptonite, I can’t blame anyone for taking a flyer on this underdog.
I, however, cannot ignore my own previous analysis around both Till’s fight with Masvidal and how that potentially factors in here. As stated on a previous page (as well as previous breakdowns), Whittaker carries multiple setups to his left hand that I see having play against a southpaw who offers minimal countering threats from his right side.
Heck. Even southpaws with potent check-right hooks can be subject to non-shifting left hands—just look at Michael Bisping’s rematch with Luke Rockhold. I’ve spoken to striking analysts like Connor Ruebusch (who does a great job at drawing out this theory), as I think similar scenarios could appear on Saturday.
Sure, Till could absolutely put the former champion on ice skates with one of his well timed counters, as that reality shouldn’t shock any of us given his skill ceiling and age.
I just don’t see enough check hooks (or counter hooks, in general) for me to confidently side with the Englishman here. For that reason, I’ll pick Whittaker to avoid the patent crosses and uppercuts from Till, eventually finding a finish after a brief feeling-out period in the first round.
Prediction: Whittaker inside the distance
