MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 14.
UFC on ESPN+ 14 takes place Saturday at Antel Arena in Montevideo, the capital city of Uruguay. The card streams on ESPN+.
Valentina Shevchenko (17-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 67″
- Last fight: KO win over Jessica Eye (June 8, 2019)
- Camp: Team Shevchenko (Las Vegas, NV)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ UFC flyweight champion
+ 17x muay Thai and K-1 championships
+ 9x IMFA Champ (56-2 as a pro)
+ Tae kwon do black belt (2nd dan)
+ 3 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Excellent footwork
^ Seldom out of position
+ Accurate check hook and counter cross
+ Hard knees, elbows and kicks
+ Crafty clinch game
^ Good trips, tosses and positional awareness
+ Underrated takedown defense
^ Strong hips and base
Liz Carmouche (13-6 MMA, 5-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’6″ Age: 35 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66″
- Last fight: Decision win over Lucie Pudilova(Feb. 23, 2019)
- Camp: Team Hurricane Awesome (San Diego, CA)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ 10th Planet jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Grappling accolades and experience
+ 6 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ Comes on late in rounds
+ Improved overall striking ability
^ Switches stance/variates shot selection
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Solid takedown game
^ Trips, tosses, traditional takedowns
+ Excellent top game
^ Strikes and transitions well
Point of interest: Striking with the southpaw
The main event in Uruguay features a flyweight title fight between two competitors who are looking to cement their own spin on a past encounter.
Starting on the feet, Liz Carmouche will be tasked with striking with one of the more accoladed southpaws to step into the UFC cage. Luckily for Carmouche, she is both familiar with Shevchenko and her stance.
In fact, since making her historical UFC debut, Carmouche has adopted the southpaw stance throughout many of her contests, often using it to compliment her countering nature. A natural counter fighter, Carmouche does not mind sharpshooting from just outside of range to set up her attacks.
Although Carmouche used to lean heavily on her right-sided leg kicks and check hooks, the former Marine has shown a more balanced attack in recent years, displaying an ability to both check and counter from her left side. And when the 35-year-old finds an avenue to her liking, she has no problem blitzing forward in combination.
Still, when thinking about the pinpoint threats of her opposition, I will be curious to see if Carmouche is more or less conservative come Saturday.
Enter Valentina Shevchenko.
Coming from a martial arts family, Shevchenko has been a practitioner of combat since age 4, amassing multiple titles in K-1 and the IFMA (the same organization where she fought and beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times).
A counter fighter by nature, Shevchenko wields all the weapons that a southpaw should never leave home without, keeping everything from check-hooks to counter crosses on a hair-trigger. And whenever someone tries to step off to her weak side, she offers answers in the form of spinning assaults and liver kicks that help keep her opposition corralled.
Still, Shevchenko’s willingness to wait for the counter has costed her on the scorecards in certain bouts, which makes me wonder what her temperament will be heading into a matchup with a fighter who tends to use takedowns to seal rounds.
Next point of interest: Grappling advantages?
Point of interest: Grappling advantages?
Considering how the striking stacks up on paper, I would not be surprised to see Carmouche look to employ her strengths on the floor.
A powerhouse since stepping onto the Strikeforce scene, Carmouche’s strength and athleticism have lent themselves nicely to her takedowns and top game. Carmouche carries some deceptive explosiveness to her shots in the open, though she tends to secure the majority of her takedowns from the fence or in the clinch.
Carmouche may be one of the strongest females on the roster, pound-for-pound, but Shevchenko may be one of the few flyweights who can confidently hold her own with her in close quarters.
No longer underrated inside of the clinch, Shevchenko possesses all the tools you would expect from a muay Thai practitioner. Not only does the Kyrgyzstani wield mean elbows off the break, but she also does deceptive work to the body with knees, something that could pay dividends in a five-round affair.
Although many high-level strikers have failed to develop grappling games in MMA, I think that fighters who come from traditional muay Thai backgrounds bring an aspect of grappling that is typically understated. A devastating striking art with an often-overlooked emphasis on clinch wrestling, Shevchenko embraced and excelled in the grappling aspects of muay Thai, which in turn granted her success while competing in that sport (as well as this one).
That said, Shevchenko is not beyond being taken down or being subject to activity lulls when inside of the clinch, which is why Carmouche makes for such an interesting dance partner.
Carmouche, who is a black belt in jiu-jitsu under the 10th Planet system, is no slouch should she find herself in top position. She has no problem staying heavy on opponents, all while raining down strikes that help open up opportunities for Carmouche to advance position.
Even though Carmouche hasn’t been submitted in some time (and trains with current Bellator flyweight champ Ilima-Lei Macfarlane), she will still need to be respectful to the submission threats of Shevchenko, who uses her leg dexterity well from guard.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are confidently siding with the sitting champion, listing Shevchenko -1250 and Carmouche +800 as of this writing.
Considering how easy it is to fall victim to tall odds in these divisions, I tend to temper my enthusiasm when I see betting spreads this wide on what are ultimately two very capable fighters. However, despite Carmouche technically winning the first fight by TKO (cut stoppage), I can understand the confidence in Shevchenko here.
Shevchenko has shelved much of her activity-lulling criticisms since moving down to 125 pounds, whereas Carmouche has continued to put together somewhat uninspiring decisions that have unfortunately caused her to fly under the radar in this spot. Should Carmouche show the ability to stifle Shevchenko and get her down early, then we could see the challenger make this a deceptively close affair.
Carmouche may have come up a bit short in both of her previous title efforts, but that doesn’t change the fact that she has all the makings for a stylistic spoiler. That said, I suspect that Shevchenko is now equipped with adequate answers to Carmouche’s strengths, as I see her stunning the respected veteran on the feet before finishing her off on the floor come the second round.
