MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 11.
UFC on ESPN 11 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
Curtis Blaydes (13-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 29 Weight: 248 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: TKO win over Junios Dos Santos(Jan. 25, 2020)
- Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ NJCAA national heavyweight wrestling title
+ IKF national champ
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved striking and footwork
^ Shifts stances/moves well off strikes
+ Explosive power-double takedown
^ Changes level well
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Bodylocks, trips, suplexes
+ Solid top game
^ Floats, wrist-rides, strikes
Alexander Volkov (31-7 MMA, 5-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’7″ Age: 31 Weight: 251 lbs. Reach: 80″
- Last fight: Decision win over Greg Hardy (Nov. 9, 2019)
- Camp: Strela Team (Russia)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ M-1 heavyweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Kyokushin karate brown belt
+ 19 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate right hand
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Well-balanced combination attack
+ Deceptively effective knees
+ Improved defensive wrestling
^ Head and hip position/over and underhooks
+ Serviceable grappling ability
Point of interest: Staying on the feet
The main event in Las Vegas features a fun styles matchup that will have all the heavyweight feels for as long as it stays standing.
Despite coming from a wrestling base, Curtis Blaydes is no stranger to kickboxing, showing solid fight-to-fight improvements each time out.
Blaydes moves well for a big man, demonstrating the ability to shift his stance to take angles that encourage corralling scenarios. He has also done a lot better at putting together his punches, as the 29-year-old talent seems to be right at home whenever pressuring forward.
Whether Blaydes is working behind his jab or rolling his head off of his crosses, his time spent training at the Elevation Fight Team has really come through in recent years. However, as we saw in both of his fights with Francis Ngannou, Blaydes is not beyond being countered for his aggressive approaches – which is why a matchup with Alexander Volkov is so intriguing.
The kickboxing heavyweight comes from a traditional martial arts background in kyokushin and tsu shin gen, styles of karate that emphasize more on the sparring and sporting aspects. Making the jump into MMA from a young age, Volkov has done well in regards to translating his style.
Taking more of a squared stance than most traditional martial artists, Volkov opens up his offensive options from both sides, all while still carrying the in-and-out abilities typically associated with karate fighters. A diverse striker who is effective coming forward and off of the counter, Volkov keeps an accurate right hand at the ready and can also be sharp from a southpaw stance.
When feeling in stride, Volkov will come forward in combination, punctuating his presence off of his lead leg like many Eastern European and Russian kickboxers. However, he will need to mind his kick retractions given the looming takedown threats that it could potentially cost him.
Next point of interest: Wrestler’s wrath
Point of interest: Wrestler’s wrath
Considering the wrestling disparity in this matchup, it’s hard not to wonder when Blaydes will look to exploit his on-paper advantages.
A junior college wrestling champion, Blaydes carries a potent heavyweight wrestling style that translates well to MMA.
Showing all the signs of an aggressive grappler since his wrestling days, Blaydes has always appeared to have a relentlessness in his approach. Whether he is re-wrestling for underhooks, looking for mat returns or implementing his patented blast-double takedown, Blaydes can execute like second nature (even when under heavy fire).
That said, Blaydes may have more obstacles than just uppercuts and knees when it comes to getting Volkov down.
Despite wrestling traditionally being Volkov’s foil, the 11-year pro has slowly by surely shored up some of the fundamental holes in his takedown defense in recent years.
Whether he is utilizing overhooks or underhooks, Volkov does much better at stopping his opposition from attacking his hips. The Russian fighter is also very diligent when it comes to head position, proactively placing his forehead as a stopper of momentum.
With that in mind, Volkov has been prone to preemptively dipping his head in harm’s way, and he has eaten his fair share of uppercuts throughout his career.
Although Volkov appears to have competently climbed to a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he’s traditionally been too comfortable and conservative when fighting off his back. Past opponents who have implemented a top-heavy pursuit have typically succeeded in grappling stanzas with the Russian, or at the very least, earned enough control time to win the round.
That said, when he fought Fabricio Werdum, Volkov displayed an improved getup urgency and scrambling ability, utilizing a solid tripod technique to get back to his feet. Turtling to his base to stand, Volkov did a great job at keeping his back at a severe slope when returning to topside, something that discourages opportunistic back-takers by making a difficult surface to secure to.
Although Blaydes is not an avid back taker, Volkov will still need to be mindful anytime he bases out to stand, as the turtle position can often offer a la carte options in regards to wrestling rides and mat-return opportunities.
Blaydes, like many wrestlers, does not play for your typical jiu-jitsu positions in hopes of finding a submission, as he’d seemingly rather dismantle opposition through punishing rides that see the American unleash strikes off of smart wrist-feeds and controls. And whenever Blaydes does get his opponent’s backs flat, hellacious, skull-splitting elbows aren’t usually far behind.
Whether Volkov elects to play guard to try and get back to his feet, the 31-year-old veteran will have to be urgent in his actions if he means to avoid the wrestler’s wrath.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be favoring the American, listing Blaydes -420 and Volkov +335 as of this writing.
Although I always say to be skeptical of a heavyweight line in MMA that shows over a 2-1 spread, I can understand the confidence in the favorite here.
Stylistically, this matchup screams “striker vs. grappler,” which tends to usually sway gamblers the grappler’s way – especially when fighting inside the small cage. And from an analyst’s perspective of having to make a pick, I also tend to like the wrestler in this spot.
Nevertheless, nothing is certain in MMA, as I could totally see Blaydes’ shelling and dipping propensities opening him up for a Volkov uppercut (a la the ones that he landed on Werdum) that ends his night early. Still, it’s hard for me not to see Blaydes corralling Volkov toward the cage to score takedowns, breaking the Russian down by the third round.
Prediction: Blaydes inside the distance
