MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 11.
UFC on ESPN+ 11 takes place Saturday at Ericcson Globe in Stockholm. The event streams on ESPN+.
Alexander Gustafsson (18-5 MMA, 10-5 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’5″ Age: 32 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 79″
- Last fight: Knockout loss to Jon Jones (Dec. 29, 2018)
- Camp: Allstars Training Center (Sweeden)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Amateur boxing experience
+ 11 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ Superb cardio and conditioning
+ Good footwork/moves well
+ High-volume puncher
^ Accurate jabs, hooks and uppercuts
+ Dangerous knees
+ Underrated wrestling
+ Solid top game/pressure
+ Good get-up urgency
Anthony Smith (31-14 MMA, 7-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 30 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Jon Jones(March 2, 2019)
- Camp: Factory-X Muay Thai (Nebraska/Colorado)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 17 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 17 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Well-rounded muay Thai arsenal
^ Effective at multiple ranges
+ Excellent clinch striker
^ Devastating knees and elbows
+ Underrated grappling ability
^ Uses frame/transitions well
+/-Only seen scorecards 4 times in 45 fights
Point of interest: Finding momentum
The main event in Stockholm features a fun light heavyweight pairing of two fighters who will be vying for momentum on the feet.
An experienced fighter for being just 30, Anthony Smith embraces more of a traditional muay Thai arsenal, bringing a well rounded skill set of violence to the table. Carrying a menacing feel to the way in which he marches down his opposition, Smith is capable of making pressure his friend, using it to fuel his forward assaults.
Despite his long reach and frame, the Nebraska native does a deceptively good job at changing his ranges on strikes mid-stroke or combination, following fleeing opponents when appropriate. Favoring to fight on the inside, Smith keeps an array of unforgiving elbows and knees at the ready, especially when going into or off of clinch breaks.
Smith has also shown an improved jab in recent outings, using it to either set up or disrupt offense. That said, defense has not typically been Smith’s strongest suit, which means he will need to mind the traffic that his current counterpart will be throwing his way.
Enter Alexander Gustafsson.
Moving deceptively well for a tall fighter, Gustafsson demonstrates an urgency in his footwork, which allows him to maintain a quick pace to his liking. Working behind a steady dose of long jabs and corralling hooks, the Swede will sneak in uppercuts underneath or crosses over the shoulder amidst his waves of offense.
Gustafsson can also counter when he needs to, as well as flash a variety of kicks to help keep his opposition honest. And when inside of clinching range, the 32-year-old fighter is not shy about using his long frame to launch knees up the middle.
However, when you consider his counterpart’s capabilities inside of the clinch, I can’t help but wonder if Gustafsson will stick to his boxing or find other ways to score on Smith.
Next point of interest: Potential surprises
Point of interest: Potential surprises
Considering how chaotic striking exchanges could get standing, I will be curious to see if either man looks to surprise the other with their underrated grappling game.
Smith is a noted clinch striker but his wrestling – though serviceable – is not exactly something he utilizes at all times. Should Gustafsson try and get around Smith’s strikes by using his underrated takedown ability (one of the few men to score takedowns on both Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier), then perhaps he could make a dent on the scoreboard.
Despite his long and gangly frame, Gustafsson keeps a tight game on top, applying good shoulder pressure and fundamentals to his flow. Those same fundamentals also translate well to his work inside the guard, as Gustafsson is good about keeping his hands off the mat and maintains a safe posture.
Nevertheless, Gustafsson will still be at an on-paper disadvantage when grappling with Smith – which makes me wonder how long he’ll choose to tangle with the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in ground exchanges.
Although his comfortability has cost him at times, Smith has shown that he can stay calm and stage comebacks from bad positions. Utilizing intelligent wrist controls, Smith can elevate his hips while he threatens with both submissions and sweeps, regardless of whether he’s working from a full or half-guard.
If Smith does end up on top, then he, too, could change the landscape of this matchup. But if he doesn’t, then he will need to exercise more urgency from the bottom than he has in some of his past appearances.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the hometown fighter, listing Gustafsson -335 and Smith -275 as of this writing.
Though I don’t disagree with seeing Gustafsson listed as the favorite, I believe that Smith is a livelier dog than the odds let on (a position he’s accustom to). For that reason, I caution anyone who wants to put down heavy dough on either side of this contest – one I think will be filled with some intangibles.
Gustafsson has had mixed results competing at home, and his attitude toward fighting (which still seems high at the moment), as well as his health, has had trouble lining up for him in recent years. Against Smith, he cannot afford any lapses in his concentration or approach.
However, Smith, too, brings an intangible attitude to the table. Vocally disappointed in his last performance, Smith has proclaimed publicly that this fight is for him to shake off the feeling from his last one. Like any long, unpleasant affair that doesn’t go your way, I suppose we can all understand the baseline of that emotion. But fighting, like in life, can be a real mixed bag in regards to making emotional or spontaneous decisions.
Though this approach could certainly help Smith here, I still suspect that he’ll have a hard row to hoe from a stylistic standpoint. I’ve been a big fan of Smith’s story for some time now and hate picking against him, but unless he can catch Gustafsson dipping into a knee or fleeing into a right hand or elbow off the break, then I see the Sweedish fighter frustrating the durable American en route to the scorecards.
Prediction: Gustafsson by decision
For more on UFC on ESPN+ 11, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
