MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 10.
UFC on ESPN+ 10 takes place Saturday at Blue Cross Arena in Rochester, N.Y. The card streams on ESPN+.
Rafael dos Anjos (28-11 MMA, 17-9 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 70″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Kamaru Usman (Nov. 30, 2018)
- Camp: RVCA/Gracie Barra (California)
- Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC lightweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple Brazilian jiu-jitsu accolades
+ 5 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Disciplined pace and pressure
^ Aggressive but intelligent stalker
+ Hard and accurate Thai kicks
^ Variates well to the body
+ Good takedowns against the fence
^ 11-3 when scoring at least one
+ Strong positional grappler
^ Smashes and passes effectively
+ Improved getup ability
Kevin Lee (17-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 26 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Al Iaquinta (Dec. 15, 2018)
- Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Collegiate wrestler (NCAA Division II)
+ 2 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Improved footwork and movement
+ Puts together punches and kicks well
+ Strong inside of the clinch
+ Excellent offensive and reactive shots
^ Has taken down 13 of 14 UFC opponents
+ Intelligent transitional grappler
^ Positionally aware/fights hands
+ Dangerous back taker
^ Heavy hips and crushing chokes
+ 5-0 against UFC southpaws
Point of interest: Take the reins
The main event in Rochester features a pairing of top-ranked welterweights who do well when it comes to making pressure their friend, but are also arguably dependent on being the ones who need to take the reins to find success in their fights.
A more flexible pressure fighter, Rafael dos Anjos will steadily stalk his opponents, working behind feints until finding an opportunity to unleash his shots. Whether dos Anjos is throwing his hard left hands or Thai kicks, he usually counterbalances his attack with a dangerous right hook.
Accustomed to having to slip-and-rip on taller opposition, dos Anjos does well at following his opponents strike retractions back into the pocket – a place where he can use his power to bomb from below. Still, the Brazilian will need to respect what’s coming back his way, regardless of any perceived on-paper advantages.
Enter Kevin Lee.
Despite not being known for his striking game, the man known as “The Motown Phenom” has quietly made improvements in said space under the care of Dewey Cooper.
From his footwork to fundamentals, Lee has been displaying a better understanding of defensive and offensive angles, getting more confident in his abilities every time we see him compete. And with improved head movement typically accompanying upgraded footwork, Lee has also demonstrated much more discipline in rolling his head offline with his punches, something that should assist him in avoiding counters.
The 26-year-old standout also has shown to be more fluid when shifting stances, arguably flowing just as well from southpaw as he does from orthodox. Nevertheless, as we were reminded in his last fight, Lee is far from impervious to strikes standing, which makes me wonder how long he will want to keep the action on the feet.
Next point of interest: Rinse and repeat?
Point of interest: Rinse and repeat?
Given the lasting impressions both Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman left in 2018, many have brought into question how dos Anjos will deal with yet another looming wrestling threat set before him.
From Lee’s superb technique to his natural gifts of athleticism and reach, the former NCAA Division II national qualifier has a knack for finding the hips of his opponents. Working particularly well from the bodylock, Lee does a great job of chaining off his takedown approaches, either taking the path of least resistance or paving one of his own.
Nevertheless, dos Anjos has proven to be harder to hold down as his career has progressed.
Ever since his closely contested encounter with Gleison Tibau, we have seen dos Anjos slowly but surely close the gaps in his wrestling ability. Adding in a takedown game that fits nicely into his cage corralling sensibilities, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has proven to be a fully fledged threat. Defensively, dos Anjos has improved his fundamentals from underhooks to hip positioning, as well as wielding an upgraded urgency to his getup game.
Should the former lightweight champ end up on his back, he’s far from a slouch. Dos Anjos will offer legitimate threats from kimura sweeps to submissions that Lee will need to be aware of so that he doesn’t fall victim to the positional-based player. But ultimately, ending up on his back is the last place dos Anjos will want to be.
A phenomenal wrestler who seemingly embraced the submission arts early, Lee displays a preternatural ability to find and take the back. Fueled by slick transitions and heavy hips, the 26-year old arguably crushes as much as he attempts chokes, dominantly closing off airways in a way that reminds me of a vintage B.J. Penn.
That said, if Lee does not find a finish, I am curious to see – even without as traumatic of a weight cut – if the American can keep the pressure and pace he’ll need to match his resilient Brazilian counterpart.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be a bit split given the shift in the betting lines, which currently list dos Anjos -115 and Lee -105 as of this writing.
Regardless of which side you fall on for this fight, this is a close matchup on paper no matter how you cut it. I initially came in leaning toward dos Anjos to break the trend and get back on track here, but I have a hard time pulling the trigger for a fighter on the latter end of his career to shatter stereotypes by succeeding on what has traditionally been a tough stylistic matchup for him.
Lee has shown to tire in some of his past performances, but he has also proven that he can push past those points (as well as the adversities of being hurt) like he did during his impressive five-round war with Edson Barboza. I suspect that those intangibles will be supported by positive trends with Lee’s move up in weight, but I’m still not sure he’ll enjoy other benefits from his situation like, for example – being the faster fighter.
In fact, I believe that dos Anjos will be the faster of the two standing, something that will make the former lightweight champ even livelier in striking exchanges. Though part of me sees this fight playing out similarly to Patricio Freire’s recent win over Michael Chandler (with the speedier Brazilian finding a crashing counter on the pressuring American), I can’t help but seeing Lee, once again, bounce back strong from a loss by following the previously paved path to victory here.
Prediction: Lee by decision
For more on UFC on ESPN+ 10, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
