MMAjunkie Radio co-host and MMAjunkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 1.
UFC on ESPN 1 takes place Sunday at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix. The event airs on ESPN following early prelims on ESPN+.
Cain Velasquez (14-2 MMA, 12-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 36 Weight: 242 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: TKO win over Travis Browne (July 9, 2016)
- Camp: American Kickboxing Academy (California)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC heavyweight champion
+ Div. 1 All-American wrestler
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 12 KO victories
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Relentless pace and pressure
^ High-volume/combination striker
+ Solid head positioning
^ Striking in transit/inside of the clinch
+ Diverse takedown ability
+ Efficient transitional grappler
^ Floats, rides, seamlessly strikes
– Coming off of a 30-month layoff
Francis Ngannou (12-3 MMA, 7-2 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 254 lbs. Reach: 83″
- Last fight: TKO win over Curtis Blaydes(Nov. 24, 2018)
- Camp: MMA Factory (France)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ 7 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate left hand
^ Jabs, crosses, check-hooks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Hard knees/heavy hips
+/-Developing ground game
^ Serviceable transitions/struggles off back
Point of interest: Aggression
The UFC’s main attraction on ESPN smacks of a similar tone as previous promotional debuts with this Sunday featuring the return of former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez. And akin to the organization’s inaugural FOX fight, this matchup, too, will likely hinge upon the level of aggression Velasquez brings to the table.
Like many wrestlers who make the transition to mixed martial arts, Velasquez is a pressure fighter at heart.
Demonstrating an acute awareness to move his head from left to right since stepping onto to the UFC stage, Velasquez utilizes an efficient economy of movement to throw his strikes. Continually slipping off the center line, the former champ will come right back on balance with various levels of punches and kicks in combination. When feeling in stride, Velasquez launches an overhand right that seems to find its way around guards and works in multiple scenarios for him.
Still, no matter how disciplined Velasquez means to be with his kickboxing fundamentals, the 36-year-old veteran is inherently at risk for counters by the mere nature of his aggression. And given Velasquez’s current counterpart, the cost of a counterstrike comes with a hefty bill.
Enter Francis Ngannou.
A Cameroonian-born Parisian who practically came from nothing, the rise of Ngannou has been fascinating to watch.
A dangerous striking threat who lists himself as an orthodox fighter, the 32-year-old standout occasionally will fight from southpaw when facing wrestlers (though he really didn’t need to in his last outing).
Not only does the southpaw stance allow a little more play in the distance department, but it also somewhat limits the shot selection on his opposition, as well as opens up opportunities to land his counter left cross. When fighting from orthodox, Ngannou still prefers to conduct traffic from his left side, throwing straight or varying his patent up-jabs and check-hooks.
Utilizing feints and pivoting well within close quarters, Ngannou also keeps a good sense of space, managing distance firmly when he chooses to. However, as impressive as Ngannou’s movement is, he, too, is not beyond being hit or countered with wrestling shots while coming forward, which is what makes the striking dynamic of this battle a compelling one at all ranges.
Next point of interest: Attrition
Point of interest: Attrition
Between Ngannou’s failed bid for the heavyweight belt against Stipe Miocic and Velasquez’s successful title defenses against Junior Dos Santos, it’s not hard for one to surmise a strategy to help blossom the dynamic of this matchup.
Velasquez, who gets a surprising amount of his fights to the floor via knockdowns, possesses a diverse takedown arsenal that Ngannou may have to deal with.
Similar to American Kickboxing Academy stablemates Daniel Cormier and Khabib Nurmagomedov, Velasquez can seamlessly chain from single-legs to tosses in close quarters. And carrying over his awareness for head position, the former Division I standout does a good job of keeping his forehead pressed into his opponent’s chin (ala Randy Couture-style), which helps him dictate the position with both strikes and leverage from his underhooks.
On the floor, Velasquez produces nightmares that probably stay with the opponents who have had the unfortunate experience of being cooked in that hellacious kitchen. A highly skilled grappler who owns a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, the former champ prefers to break down what he catches with unrelenting wrestling rides that are accompanied with strikes that come second nature from almost every position thrown.
And though I could see Velasquez putting those skills on display come Sunday, grounding Ngannou is not the easiest of paths – despite it seeming like an obvious one.
The MMA Factory product is not-so-deceptively strong inside the clinch, commanding a solid base and balance for a man of his size. Ngannou shows the competence to try and keep his opponent’s arms separated during their takedown attempts, as well as a decent sprawl in open space.
Even when on the wrong end of a beatdown against then-champion Stipe Miocic, Ngannou had quiet moments of success, where he, at the very least, was able to demonstrate that he knew the proper fundamentals of defending from the fence or using the cage to stand (when he wasn’t utterly exhausted, of course).
Nevertheless, Ngannou will need to display a prolonged urgency if he means to compete with the active and unforgiving rides of Velasquez, who will without a doubt be trying to attrit his Cameroonian counterpart.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the former champion, listing Velasquez -160 and Ngannou +140 as of this writing.
This line initially opened wider in favor of Velasquez but has tightened during fight week with money coming in on the underdog Ngannou, and – despite my official pick – I can completely understand that sentiment.
Sure, stylistically speaking, Velasquez should win this kind of matchup roughly 7 out of 10 times. However, we have also seen Velasquez lose this type of fight the last time he was featured in a similar spot — which, in hindsight, spookily resembled Ngannou’s most recent win over rising wrestling threat Curtis Blaydes. Factor in the former champ’s 30-month layoff, and I don’t blame anyone for taking the shot on the dog here.
However, one could also argue that time off for what was an injury-riddled world championship-level fighter is not necessarily the worst thing in the world – especially if you are a heavyweight (a weight class that is traditionally kinder to aging athletes).
Though Velasquez seems to own his losses, you can argue that his poorer performances were, in part, a result of rushing a product to market. Now that he has taken the time to do it on his own timetable, I suspect more positive than negative in regards to his health. And as far as his potential performance goes, I imagine that AKA – for all its criticisms of hard sparring sessions – is the perfect gym to shake off the rust from this type of layoff.
Ultimately, it’s a heavyweight MMA fight, which means I’ll be keeping my money away from it. If Velasquez can navigate the first round without getting sent into the Shadowlands, then I like his chances to attrit the durable Ngannou down the stretch of a five-round affair.
Prediction: Velasquez by decision
For more on UFC on ESPN 1, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
