MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN+ 27, with the promotion’s vacant flyweight title on the line.
UFC on ESPN+ 27 takes place Saturday at Chartway Arena in Norfolk, Va. The card streams on ESPN+.
Joseph Benavidez (28-5 MMA, 15-3 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 65″
- Last fight: TKO win over Jussier Formiga (June 29, 2019)
- Camp: UFC Performance Institute (Las Vegas, Nev.)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Joe-Jitsu specialist
+ State wrestling champion of New Mexico
+ 8 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Elusive counters or corralling combos
+ Heavy right hand
+ Hard body and calf kicks
+ Superb scrambling ability
^ Urgent get-ups/great reversals
+ Strong from front-headlock position
^ Threatens guillotines/dictates position
Deiveson Figueiredo (17-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’5″ Age: 32 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″
- Last fight: Submission win over Tim Elliott (Oct. 12, 2019)
- Camp: Figueiredo Team (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ Regional grappling accolades
+ 8 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Well-timed right hands/uppercuts
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Slicing elbows from multiple ranges
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Works well from topside
^ Devastating ground striker
+ Dangerous guillotine choke
Point of interest: The price of pressure
The main event in Norfolk features a fantastic fight for the vacant flyweight title that pits the division’s heaviest hitters against each other.
Both men play very well off of pressure, but do so in different ways.
Initially stepping onto the WEC scene as an offensive-minded honey badger armed with the art of eight limbs, Joseph Benavidez has long had a relationship with pressure, showing a knack for launching corralling combos and chopping leg kicks.
Being among the first of his former Team Alpha Male stable to functionally implement shifts into his footwork, Benavidez has done a bang-up job in regards to adding or adjusting his game so that he can keep up with his contemporaries. In fact, the 14-year vet has smoothly integrated more of a stick-and-move style in spirit, displaying the ability to hit hard counters from either stance.
Coupled with Benavidez’s patented bodywork and newly-involved calf kicks (both of which I suspect will serve him well against his current counterpart), the former title challenger remains a fully-fledged threat on the feet. That said, Benavidez’s high-volume approach to offense has shown to sometimes open him up to hard counters early – something that could be extra-costly against the likes of Deivison Figueiredo.
Appearing to be a pressure-fighting wildman on the Brazilian regional scene, Figueiredo has seemingly sharpened his style and approach since touching down in the UFC octagon. The 32-year-old contender still relies heavily upon his head and trunk movement but will now add a long-framing defense from both stances, as well as flick out more jabs and straight shots to help establish his range.
This approach both accentuates Figueiredo’s length, as well as entices risky entries from his opposition that open them up for the Brazilian’s powerful counters. Whether he’s unloading counter crosses or uppercuts, Figueiredo demonstrates stellar timing and anticipation to go along with a power that flyweight hasn’t seen since the days of John Lineker.
Should Benavidez slip too slowly to Figueiredo’s power side, then we could see the trajectory of this fight shift on a dime. But considering that Figueiredo will be facing a potent level-changing threat in his first five-round affair, I will be curious to see both how consistent and eager he is to unload offense given that everything comes with a price.
Next point of interest: Flyweight quicksand
Point of interest: Flyweight quicksand
With the flyweight division traditionally featuring fun, technical scrambling stanzas, I suspect that we will get to see both fighter’s grappling styles collide here.
Despite being more known for his striking threats on the feet, Figueiredo – who earned multiple grappling accolades during his time spent under Marajo Brothers Team – translates his power just fine in the grappling department.
More of a positional-based player, Figueiredo likes to apply himself both in the clinch and from topside, as he seems to take great pleasure in making his opposition feel his weight and strength. That said, the Brazilian powerhouse might have a hell of a time trying to pin down Benavidez.
Aside from the previously mentioned footwork and movement, Benavidez can be difficult to secure in a clinch due to his awareness of when and how to leave, as well as when to stay and play. With that in mind, takedowns may become problematic for someone like Figueiredo, who generally grounds his foes from the fence or clinch.
Don’t get me wrong: Figueiredo has shown the ability to effectively change his level for takedowns in the past, I’m just not sure how willing he will be to give his neck to someone who can not only can match him when it comes to guillotine chokes but also works well from the front-headlock position.
As far as ground striking goes, I give a slight edge to Figueiredo for his ability to find slicing elbows from top or bottom. The potential problem, however, is that I’m not sure how easy Benavidez will be to hold in place.
One of the best scramblers this sport has seen throughout the past decade, Benavidez plays a beautiful high-risk, high-reward game that is fun to watch. Similar to his original MMA mentor, Urijah Faber, Benavidez has no issue giving his back to get off of it whenever finding himself grounded.
Savvy from the turtle position, Benavidez is quick to establish an underhook for safety and smartly works for single-legs to reset whenever they become available. And when a fighter is slick enough to insert a hook and establish a legitimate back-take threat, Benavidez is quick to get gravity on his side by putting his opposition between him and the mat as he diligently works out and turns into his foe (all while cleverly underhooking their leg to deny them leverage during the reversal).
If Figueiredo sells out on a guillotine or opts for any sort of takedown offense, he’ll need to be on his best behavior and stay mindful of Benavidez’s strengths; otherwise, he may find himself slowly sinking in a special brand of flyweight quicksand.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be siding with the longtime fan favorite, listing Benavidez -145 and Figueiredo +125 as of this writing.
Although I have an admitted-bias toward Benavidez (who is the pick here), I’ve always been high on the potential prospects of Figueiredo. The Brazilian dark horse has athleticism and power that’s hard to match at 125 pounds, as none of us should really be surprised if he’s able to knock Benavidez stiff off of an ill-timed slip or shift to Figueiredo’s power side. That said, there’s ultimately too much going the other way on paper for me to side with the underdog.
Figueiredo isn’t the best when it comes to checking leg or calf kicks, and – despite working the body well, himself – his traditional approach of head movement still leaves him available to the midsection. Add in the fact that the Brazilian cuts a ton of weight to make the flyweight limit, and I suspect that Benavidez’s persistent pace and bodywork will pay dividends down the stretch of a 5-round fight. The pick is for Benavidez to score a stoppage via strikes late into the third round.
